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Belmont 10/6/17

West Australian Racing
Just getting the thread started.

Have Quality Fair, Le Patron, Top Of The Class Blackbooked, but no real suoprises amongst them. Le Patron was very unlucky last start tho when blocked for a run initially on straightening.


Comments

  • dungydungy    9,278 posts
    Horrible meeting a fraction better than mid weeks 
  • psychopsycho    653 posts
    dungy said:

    Horrible meeting a fraction better than mid weeks 

    Even fields with open markets and paying 1, 2, 3 on all races at this stage, one of the better meetings I would say. 

    hash, RIO, RightOakAunt likes this post.

  • dungydungy    9,278 posts
    psycho said:

    dungy said:

    Horrible meeting a fraction better than mid weeks 

    Even fields with open markets and paying 1, 2, 3 on all races at this stage, one of the better meetings I would say. 
    Opinions are like assholes ,, we all have one 
  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    edited June 2017
    horrible meeting a fraction better than the midweeks........ pretty sure there's a last start G2 winner going round on the card and I don't think there's a midweek race he could contest (at the moment) lol

    Pike's in for a field day @dungy 
    ;)
  • jumjum    3,512 posts

    Race 1, Art Series $2 double your money for the day.

    Race 2 Elegant Blast $5 Best each way of the day. 

    Race 7 Bergio $3.60 Been screaming out for this trip, Pike stays on. BEST

    Race 8 Danefin $18 right barrier, right jock, great price. Trip is the only ??? 

    hash, Darrbs, Jell likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,236 posts
    I sacked Danefin forever last start. Normally a good tip in that

    hash likes this post.

  • dungydungy    9,278 posts
    hash said:

    horrible meeting a fraction better than the midweeks........ pretty sure there's a last start G2 winner going round on the card and I don't think there's a midweek race he could contest (at the moment) lol


    Pike's in for a field day @dungy 
    ;)



    It's ok don't get precious on me lol lol

    hash likes this post.

  • jumjum    3,512 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    I sacked Danefin forever last start. Normally a good tip in that

    Watch the "RUN" Bomber, Think it just went around, no urgency at all in the ride, Pulled back to last and just cruised home in the straight when it was never a chance of making up ground on the leaders, Go back to the start before and watch it hit the line against Just Act Natural and Profit Street
  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    @jum did you get any of the 7's on offer for EG ?
    best i've locked in was $6.30
  • jumjum    3,512 posts
    Nope, Best I got was $6 mate.
  • GrayGray    4,090 posts

    Greg’s Saturday Belmont Preview

    BlogGreg_Belmont

    Greg Hooper’s Preview

    RACE 1

    It is hard to go past the talented filly ART SERIES who looking to make it four straight wins this campaign. She beat many of these comfortably last start and she has again drawn to get the run of the race. RUBIA MISS can lead and give a sight again. LOB CITY will again finish strongly. THE SHOE showed ability in his first preparation and has trialled well.

    Numbers – 3 – 4 – 5 – 2

    Suggested Bet – ART SERIES WIN


    RACE 2

    ELEGANT BLAST hasn’t been seen for five week where she finished a fast closing second to the smart Reveille. It has been 12 months since she last tasted success however both her career wins have come at this venue. Expecting her to find the line strongly and give this a big shake. LE PATRON has been knocking on the door all preparation. With some expected tempo on she will get her chance. The Simon Miller pair of BLACKLINE and KIMBO’S GIRL will plant on the speed and give this a shake.

    Numbers – 7 – 3 – 8 – 10

    Suggested Bet – ELEGANT BLAST WIN


    RACE 3

    DAINTY TESS produced a stunning last to first win at her most recent start. She takes on the older horses however get some significant weight relief. Think she measures up and takes a stack of beating. GIGANTE ran well in the Roma Cup. This is a big class drop. WOOLIBAR came from the clouds at his most outing. He can win again if he reproduce that effort. AGARCHAR CRUZ races right on the speed and is a track specialist.

    Numbers – 4 – 1 -5 – 3

    Suggested Bet  – DAINTY TESS WIN


    RACE 4

    MINUS LOOKS appreciated the drop in distance and also the return to Belmont at his most recent start producing a very soft win. Expect he will go forward from his wide draw and if he can get outside the leader and control the tempo he is the one to beat again. TOP OF THE CLASS raced a bit flat last start. The winkers coming off and the wide draw are positives. COOL KNIGHT improved sharply second-up and Pike goes on. GANGBUSTER raced competitively in the best 3yo races of the Autumn.

    Numbers –  2 – 5 – 6 – 1

    Suggested Bet – MINUS LOOKS WIN


    RACE 5

    MAJINIKA seems to race best off these type of freshen-ups. He is drawn to lead and from there will give a big sight. METEROID didn’t see out a strongly run 1400m last week. She improves sharply with the drop back to 1200m. PROFIT STREET is racing well and usually goes super for Pike. UPTOWN FUNK ran well first-up and is drawn to get the run of the race.

    Suggested – 5 – 6 – 4 – 10

    Suggested Bet –  MAJINIKA AND METEROID


    RACE 6

    JETOOMY was eye-catcher first-up. The 1400m suits and this is a track in which he has tasted success previously. MANTIME has been game in both runs this preparation working hard on the speed and getting bloused late. From gate 1 think he’ll move into a stalking role. WESTERN TEMPLE trialled well and should be ready for this assignment. HELM’S GATE races best for Glenn Smith and has claims.

    Numbers – 11 – 12 – 7 – 2

    Suggested Bet – JETOOMY AND MANTIME


    RACE 7

    ENTRECHAT is flying.  She produced a career best win last start and looks the one to beat despite the rise in weight. BERGIO is a very honest type who should get a nice run for Pike. ROSEWOOD HILL and CAPPO D’ORO both have claims on their best form.

    Numbers –  2 – 3 – 4 – 5

    Suggested Bet – ENTRECHAT AND BERGIO


    RACE 8

    Wide open finish to the program. ASTRONOMITE isn’t the easiest horse for punters to catch however he is drawn to get the perfect run and gets his chance. MIKI TWO TOES was game in defeat last start after facing the breeze. He is a much better horse when ridden with cover. TONKATUFF is flying and just needs some luck the draw. MAGIC ROCKET gets in with 51kg and is suited with the drop back in trip.

    Numbers –  2 – 1 – 4 – 12

    Suggested Bet – ASTRONOMITE AND MIKI TWO TOES.

  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    I reckon Greg Hooper is on the money for the first 6 races (last two are raffles)

    good feeling when the pro tipsters are on the same page as you 
    8-X
  • GrayGray    4,090 posts
    edited June 2017
    Best Roughie Race 4 One Short ( Can win this)

    P Hall owes Shooter one after conveniently missing the start last time and letting Minus Looks win with a leg in the air. had One Short jumped right, he would have won. (watch Replay) On Tabradio  interview that morn Shooter was very unconvincing. (IMO) and I commented about this after the race that day.

    Another Roughie Polotics in R8 
  • psychopsycho    653 posts
    dungy said:

    psycho said:

    dungy said:

    Horrible meeting a fraction better than mid weeks 

    Even fields with open markets and paying 1, 2, 3 on all races at this stage, one of the better meetings I would say. 
    Opinions are like assholes ,, we all have one 
    You don't have to reply to everyone Dungy you could take a panadol and have a nap maybe
  • SticksSticks    548 posts
    Gray said:

    Best Roughie Race 4 One Short ( Can win this)


    P Hall owes Shooter one after conveniently missing the start last time and letting Minus Looks win with a leg in the air. had One Short jumped right, he would have won. (watch Replay) On Tabradio  interview that morn Shooter was very unconvincing. (IMO) and I commented about this after the race that day.

    Another Roughie Polotics in R8 
    There was no way minus looks was ever losing that race. No matter how fairly OS jumped.
    If OS had jumped well it may have finished closer - but ML was easily pulling away from it on the line with some left in the tank. 

    not taking away OS chances this week, as it was a nice run though
  • GLAMOURGLAMOUR    677 posts
    Will be enteresting to see how Gatting goes after a.bit of a refresher after his Derby win,but up against older horses and im thinking maybe the 1200 might be a bit short for him.
  • Bfacey77Bfacey77    580 posts
    Impresser e/w
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,236 posts
    Looks to me to be some value out at Belmont

    Race 3 Delicate Miss - Very consistent of late running nice races behind Caiparinha and Mr Motown, gets in here with only 51kg. Can give a great sight out in front and should get there from 7. Each way value around $8

    Race 7 Entrechat - another consistent one winning last two in great fashion. F Bell gets the boot and Jerry Noske takes over, so no claim, but is a plus for mine. Hopefully gets some nice cover from 10 and can win again at $8.

    Race 8 Magic Rocket - was ridden a bit close last start, second up over ground which was maybe found out at the end. First up at 1600 hit the line well and back to the mile and a bit certainly suits, with the claim and last race specialist FW Kersely only carries 51kg. Each way value at $23+ ..

    Best of luck

    hash likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    19,949 posts

    feeding time, nappy change, bomber? :((

    funny day tomorrow, I have a few roughies that i'll have a small e/w bet on.

    will reveal tomorrow morning....

    H-BOMBER, hash likes this post.

  • ThumperThumper    820 posts

    Best - Minus Looks

    Value - Sigley pair in race 6

  • JellJell    1,201 posts
    R3 Agachar Cruz 1x2
    R8 Danefin 1x3
  • ChelseaChelsea    1,369 posts
    edited June 2017
    Thumper said:

    Best - Minus Looks

    Value - Sigley pair in race 6


    Who leads the field? (Salorski too take a sit to see if he can get 1400m) Where do you think Minus Looks will end up in running? Up 2kg,extra 100m and wide gate.Would not want a gutbuster before Guineas.
    Very difficult race.
    Jetomy and the magic filly best for me
  • careycarey    6,368 posts

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    102K

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  • ChelseaChelsea    1,369 posts

    Who leads the field? (Salorski too take a sit to see if he can get 1400m) Where do you think Minus Looks will end up in running? Up 2kg,extra


    I think our horse will run a great race as well,especially at the odds
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,236 posts
    I might be way off but nothing I've seen indicates salorsci gets more than 1200m. It fell in at its win at 1200 and last start went backwards at 1300. Not sure how 1400 suits?

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  • SticksSticks    548 posts
    I agree @H-BOMBER... a lot of others are better suited to the 1400m IMO
  • SticksSticks    548 posts
    2) hay magic is over the odds. MY favourite milk drinking horse is back in blackline!! at the current price I will be taking it on - but not as confident as I was last start. Still a massive risk!
    3) Dainty Tess - saver on gigante
    4) taking on pike with cool knight and noske with salorsci.... very dangerous!! 1 - 2 - 5 - 3 my top 4
    5) max almighty/flytego both over the odds. Majinika will run a very good race fresh
    6) Jetoomy - spewing I missed the price. Skellig to be the big improver - will be specking at $51 eway

  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    @carey I know you don't follow them and just produce what your computer spits out but how can v1_1 have I Done It in race 6 at $25. and your other model have it at $1245.  >-)

    I was about to take 300/1 for it thinking it was huge overs working off the v1_5 spreadsheet  :P
  • careycarey    6,368 posts
    hash said:

    @carey I know you don't follow them and just produce what your computer spits out but how can v1_1 have I Done It in race 6 at $25. and your other model have it at $1245.  >-)


    I was about to take 300/1 for it thinking it was huge overs working off the v1_5 spreadsheet  :P
    i don't normally look at them hash.

    but in one model it's got about a 4% chance and in the other >0 so in those terms it's not so much.
    for instance in r3 blackline has a bigger variance than that.

    the reason will be that each model has different factors and/or different weightings.
    that said i could not even tell you offhand what factors are in either model.

    i am only putting them up so that you or whoever can look at them, but i doubt they are much good presently.

    for example i can't understand why salorsci is on top in both models, especially after reading the trainer comments after its last run.
    but who knows more?
    me or the computer??
    stuffed if know.
    these days maybe neither have a clue!!
  • thefalconthefalcon    19,949 posts

    guess pike is about $1.05 in the challenge..... 8-X

    be in all arvo so will have a few small e/w's.

    its it, one short, flytego, travelling (well in with the claim), rosewood hill/street bandit (ruffie of the day), politics (second ruffie).

    will I take a multi???


    =)) =))

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