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Belmont Preview, 1st Jul 2017

West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts
R1. Amelia Park Beef Plate - Terry Leighton
As usual we kick the day off with a two year old event. Mizlecki is the interesting runner after going out at the extremely provocative $1.60 last time out and being quite comfortably rolled. In some good news from that race the Victorian TAB was able to laud their courage at taking a bet of $99,000 from a clearly mentally challenged punter who has a very low opinion of money.

From barrier 7 you would suspect she will get back in the field here and on what has been a very leader biased track in the early part of the Belmont season, I would think you would be similarly challenged to the above mentioned gentleman (women are far smarter than that) if you considered hopping in at the $1.95 currently on offer. I do think this daughter of Lope De Vega is probably the best horse in the race but there would be better spots to take the shorts.

After Mizlecki the race does lack quite a bit of depth with the Cognac form holding up well (Salubrious won last start while Thirsty Work and Forceful quinella'd a mid week event). He will roll forward and make his own luck. Not many two year olds string three wins together unless they are quite smart, but this race does look right up his alley. Captain Stirling looks the best of the triallers and will look to come across and sit at the flanks of Cognac, who Daniel Staeck will be hoping crosses to find the fence. The big trial wins can occasionally be a little deceptive with two year olds when we are unaware of the quality they are up against.

Going to put Mizlecki on top purely for the fact I can see there being a three wide line for Pike to work out of. And because I want to see that punters reaction when he doesn't have a cent on. 
8. MIZLECKI - 1. COGNAC - 9. ALL SQUARE

Comments

  • PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts
    edited June 2017
    R2. Sign On Handicap - Terry Leighton

    The return of High Conviction and subsequent appointment of The Wizard is likely to see this daughter of Snitzel start at a pretty thin quote. The Miller yard doesn't mind a bet and I suspect she will be well supported here on the back of a very strong trial. From barrier 8 her major issue will be crossing the speedy Dia De La Raza, My Laina and Patapus. None of them are near her class but if she is stuck 3 wide at her first run for a year I would be a little concerned.

    Belter looks the obvious danger after sitting deep on a track (which was clearly favouring the rail) and still being too strong. That run was full of merit and she is the obvious danger. Top Of The Class back to 1000m does not excite but is the logical danger if they overcook it out in front.

    The $4 Belter compared to the $2.10 High Conviction looks to big a gap. I'll let the price influence my selections here.

    1. BELTER - 5. HIGH CONVICTION - 2. TOP OF THE CLASS

    SUGGESTED BET - 1. BELTER $30
  • PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts
    edited June 2017
    R3. David Grays Aglink Handicap - Terry Leighton

    Probably the one horse in Perth at the moment who gets me physically excited. I have always had a weird fetish for seeing the cerise and white being in an impossible position 200m out and Pike finishing by sitting up on it over the final 50m. Galaxy Star gives me the same type of feel as Elite Belle did and is my early tip for this years Railway Stakes. So clearly, I think she wins this and I am prepared to take anything above $1.60 here.

    If she has any type of bad luck then Royal Missile looks the danger after two strong runs off the back of a little freshen up.

    5. GALAXY STAR - 9. ROYAL MISSILE - 4. UPTOWN FUNK

    SUGGESTED BET - 5. GALAXY STAR $100
  • PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts
    edited June 2017
    R4. Old Mate's Sports Bar & Eatery Handicap - Terry Leighton

    Baraki Beats makes my ex girlfriend look sane. The best part about this barrier rogue is you know you are always a good chance of having a collect, even if it is from a late scratching. Understandably Jim Taylor has said enough is enough (and a bit like my ex missus) has been shipped off to another yard. If Fenella Martin can get this horses barrier issues under control she could have a very exciting time ahead. If he pings the lids here and leads like we all know he can, he simply may not give the rest a look in. He is that type of horse. A 'win only' betting proposition.
    [
    Profit Street appears the obvious danger, but you do know with Baraki Beats involved that this will be a truly run 1400m. The distance is already a query for the enigmatic Profit Street before you factor in the 60kgs and likely tempo of the race. I'd be happy taking him on at the $2.20 currently on offer. Classical Prince is going well for new trainer Neville Parker but the 1400m is a query for him too.

    Happy giving Baraki Beats one last chance (yes, I will probably say that again next start). Win only, the $11 looks over the odds.

    4. BARAKI BEATS - 9. CLASSICAL PRINCE (NZ) - 1. PROFIT STREET

    SUGGESTED BET - 4. BARAKI BEATS $50
  • PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts
    edited June 2017
    R5. Events At Ascot Handicap - Terry Leighton

    The Miller yard look to have found a smart one from NSW in Cruachan.  His two trials were a sign of what was to come on race day when making a mockery of a reasonable class 5 field at Pinjarra.  Mitchell found a little bit of bother early in the straight, but the moment this bloke saw daylight it only took one cut of the persuader for him to make his rivals look second rate.  It is very hard to line up the midweek form lines from this race, but I do see a lot of upside in this Commands gelding.  The soft track appears to be a bonus.

    3. CRUACHAN - 8. NELSON'S FLIGHT - 1. MAGIC ROCKET

    SUGGESTED BET - 3. CRUACHAN $100
  • PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts
    edited June 2017
    R6. Crown Towers Handicap - Terry Leighton

     This looks to be the most open race of the day, especially if the inclement weather rolls in as expected. A dart board job.

    Rare Coin went up at $10-14 with most agencies. Clearly this was a nice price and as I pointed out in the twittersphere it was worth hopping on, even if just to lay off later. Unfortunately despite every agency going up at this price it was determined it was a trading error and all bets have been void. Here is a few words that come to mind to describe the corporate agencies who pulled this stunt - leaches, scum, oxygen thieves, bottom feeders. I have more, but will save that for the next time they upset me. Long story short - this is why we should only bet with the boys at Punta!

    Anyway, Rare Coin does look the obvious favourite from the inside gate here, though I do worry that his best two runs have been with the in form Mitchell Pateman taking wide runs around the field. Pike did ride him three starts ago when he appeared to have every chance in a pretty weak Pinjarra maiden from a similiar gate. I'm not saying the appointment of Pike and barrier 1 is necessarily a negative, but it isn't accompanied by the usual celebration about 'free money'.

    Middle Earth has gone from strength to strength and is the one I will be chucking on top here. His recent form has been franked (Outer Detention came out to win his next start) and the fact he races on the pace is a bonus here at Belmont. Phantom Choice is the runner who I think may be some type of value. A noted wet tracker (3 from 8 on a soft track, 2 from 34 on a good track), his last two runs have been a lot better than they read. The fact both Parnham's have opted for other mounts is a worry, but I'm sure I know more about racing than both of them.

    9. MIDDLE EARTH - 5. PHANTOM CHOICE - 12. RARE COIN

    SUGGESTED BET - 9. MIDDLE EARTH $30 x $30
  • PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts
    edited June 2017
    R7. Strickland Stakes - Terry Leighton

    I'd be highly surprised if Scales Of Justice was to lose another race on WA soil at 1600m+.  He is simply a class above and the fact he is now on the fourth line of Cox Plate betting suggests this will be a no contest.  I won't be hopping into the $1.30 on offer, but will instead enjoy watching the states best galloper take care of a moderate bunch on his way to meeting the great mare in Melbourne. Zarantz is a clear second pick with Aaron Mitchell being the key to this horse. I'd be very surprised if this is not your exacta.

    1. SCALES OF JUSTICE - 5. ZARANTZ - 2. IHTSAHYMN
  • PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts
    edited June 2017
    R8. Get The Tabtouch Handicap - Terry Leighton

     A thin race on paper to finish the day with the Bob Peters pair of Bold Success and Show Honey looking the obvious two. I was a little surprised to see Pike opt for Bold Success over Show Honey, though he has been wrong in the past. Happy tipping this might be the case again here. She clearly didn't handle the step up to 1600m and as long as he has not taken any ill effects from that run she should be very difficult to hold out late. Her run two starts back beating subsequent winners Fontainebleau and Blackline should be enough to account for this moderate field. The fact she carries only 53kgs is a bonus.

    Remunerator is the big 'watch' horse here after impressing in her trials and being well backed first up. Her only WA effort did fail to flatter, but that was a very leader biassed day and she was heavily supported. I would be willing to give her another chance if they are making ground from the back. I think she might be a smart one.

    13. SHOW HONEY (NZ) - 12. REMUNERATOR - 6. BOLD SUCCESS (NZ)

    SUGGESTED BET - 13. SHOW HONEY (NZ) $50
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