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Full Belmont Preview 12th August

West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts

Race 1 - Cutaway In Play

With the abandonment of the midweek Belmont meet, I am absolutely chomping at the bit to get stuck into a bit of city action. It is important to note that the rail position has changed from the true to the 15 metres and the controversial cutaway will be in play. This is the first meet on a Saturday I can remember where it has been utilised. When writing this on a Thursday afternoon the track is at a Soft6 and with more rain forecast over the next couple of days, I suspect it will hold around that rating.

Not a race I am overly enthusiastic about. Costa Oeste will give Casey Hunter her best opportunity for city success after a couple of eye catchers at his most recent outings. The step up to 1400m should suit him. Quest To Venus and Miss Ponderosa are both running out of chances, but are more than capable of winning this from their good draws. Golgotha might be the class of the field but Dan Staeck will need to be at his absolute best to get it home from the wide gate.

Selections

3 Costa Oeste
9 Quest To Venus
10 Miss Ponderosa

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 2 - Fred's Choice

A small but intriguing staying event here, where young Fred Kersley may hold the key. Darren Mc Auliffe was quoted midweek as saying Fred would ride Gatting for him but when acceptances were finalised and jockeys named, Fred instead opted for Ihtsahymn. The family connection may have played a part in this, but it is still a telling move from one of the states most promising apprentices. On top of this he also would have been offered the ride on Stocks.

Early markets have Ihtsahymn as the longest price of the three mounts Kersley was offered and the current figure of around $7 looks like a tremendous each way price. Yes, tremendous. His last run behind Rosewood Hill showed he was close to being back to his best and the 3kg claim will only enhance his winning prospects. I can't split him and Gatting.

I better chuck Ripper Rio in for third as not to be reprimanded by some of the demanding connections. I do think he is a run short however for the 2100m (revised from 2000m with the rail adjustment). The Forgotten One is a watch horse after a stack of money stayed in the bookies bags last start.

Selections

1 Ihtsahymn
2 Gatting
5 Ripper Rio

Suggested Bet: 50 wins and 50 places Ihtsahymn (1).

Race 3 - Dark Skies Ahead

After an abject failure first up, Atacama Sky's tactics were altered and we saw this Scandal Keeper gelding race with a sit for the first time in his short career. Despite giving leader and subsequent winner More Aces a hefty head start he hit the line hard showing he has more strings to his bow. He did lay inwards noticeably over the final 100m which affected Brad Parnham's ability to fully test him. He should have More Aces back here and have every conceivable chance with the cutaway in play.

Selections

8 Atacama Sky
3 Recoiled
2 More Aces

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 4 - Television At It's Worst

Kiss Bang Love was a TV show which was aired on channel 7 in 2016. It is the lowest ebb Australian television has ever hit. For those who have never seen an episode - keep it that way. Anyway, this Russell Stewart trained filly was one of the surprise packets of the 2 year old carnival earlier this year when winning the Group 3 Gimcrack Stakes. She was too strong for the all conquering Lucy Mae on that day and if Stewart has her anyway near that form she takes a stack of beating here. She will likely end up a couple of spots back on the fence with the cutaway being her best friend on straightening.

There is a stack of 'horses to watch' in this but probably none more so than Epic Grey. A bit like a newly drafted Liam Jurrah this Wicked Style gelding has a stack of ability but as seen on his debut run, can do a lot wrong. I think with the blinkers coming off from the wide gate they may look to ride him cold. Foxy Princess can improve at $60+ here.

Selections

2 Kiss Bang Love
4 Epic Grey
10 Foxy Princess

Suggested Bet: No bet.
'
Race 5 - Hook, Line & Sinker

Prize Catch was a dominant midweek winner when attacking the mile second up. He should have derived fitness from that run and from the good draw should be very hard to hold out late. This is a race of contrasting form lines with Veuve De Vega arguably having the best of those. He has looked like more of a grinder than a sprinter towards the end of last campaign so the step up to the mile here should suit. He should lead this quite comfortably with Bella's Idol on his back and Prize Catch not far from them.

Romelo and Let's Twist were both solid placegetters at their most recent outings but due to the wide gates both will be giving Prize Catch & Veuve De Vega quite a head start. Never easy circling the field with the cutaway in play. Happy calling this a two horse race and leaning towards the sharper Prize Catch. $6.50 currently on offer looks a nice each way price. Not tremendous. Just nice.

Selections

4 Prize Catch
3 Veuve De Vega
12 Take It Like A Man

Suggested Bet: 40 wins and 40 place Prize Catch (4).

Race 6 - Easy Street

The listed Newmarket Stakes is the feature race of the day which does appear to lack many winning hopes. Profit Street was an incredibly dominant winner of the Bolton Stakes a fortnight ago, stepping up and succeeding at listed company at the first time of asking. Despite the weight penalty he receives here this is just about an easier assignment to the one he faced last time out. Barrier one is a blessing with the cutaway in play, Brad Parnham has a stack of options.

The recent Bob Peters dispersal sale may have been a good one to be at with Astronomite already winning twice for the new owners at Belhus Racing and Battle Hero being a massive hope of tasting black type success here. Coming off a 56 day break for a new stable, it is hard to know how well he is going but his best is good enough to win this with a degree of comfortability. Murmurs from the stable suggest he will be hard to beat. Meteoroid is the final of the three hopes in this race after a total 'forget' run last time out. She actually did well to box on and finish as close as she did. From barrier 3 with a cleaner getaway, she should find the fence and run them along here. That should be your boxed trifecta.

Selections

1 Battle Hero
2 Profit Street
6 Meteoroid

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 7 - Absolute Cracker

The penultimate event of the day is an absolute cracker. This is only a 62+ but it would not surprise me if we see some of these doing battle in listed races in the next couple of 12 months. Bonny Be Good proved herself to be a serious racehorse last campaign with the scalp of Caipirinha. Her recent trial was strong, but after 10 months off racing she may be one worth watching in betting. Young Gina hails from the same stable and is undefeated at this stage in his career. Both of those wins he's looked beaten at the 200m before really finding the line hard. He may be one looking for a little further than the 1200m but is still capable from the good draw here.

Get Over It doesn't need much of an introduction after being edged out in a two horse battle royale with Royal Command at his most recent outing. Again, he has drawn wide which will mean giving some of these smart gallopers a head start. I have no doubt Lindsey Smith will look to step him up in journey very shortly. Miss Sondrio and Diablerie are two South West gallopers with a stack of ability. The race of the day, but probably not as a betting proposition.

Selections

8 Bonny Be Good
6 Get Over It
9 Young Gina

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 8 - The Get Out Shapes

Final event of the day is another intriguing battle between two horses destined for bigger and better things.

Gunnago has simply been outstanding in his short career to date making his recent opposition look absolutely second rate. Two starts back he toyed with Invincible Warrior who subsequently came out to win and win comfortably. I was happy putting a line through him at his next outing when he stepped up to a red hot Saturday 3 year old field and blew them away. Needless to say, there won't be a line going through him again. The worry for a horse so early in his career is keeping him at the top of his game and stringing 4 wins together, but he does look like a professional. The barrier on paper appears to be a deterrent, but there is no natural leader in this and he should be able to find a spot in the first two in running.

The danger is Pushin' Shapes. He has always promised to go to another level and last campaign did just that. He barely got out of second gear when winning first up last campaign. This is a completely different kettle of fish, but if his trial is anything to go by he should be rocketing home late. Young Fred Kersley will be aiming to find the three wide line and unleash him late. If there is a chink in Gunnago's arsenal then he will find it.

At $8 I'm happy putting Pushin' Shapes on top as an each way play, though the $3 currently available about Gunnago does look enticing. I wouldn't be afraid to play both.

Selections

1 Pushin' Shapes
9 Gunnago
14 Double Digit

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Pushin' Shapes (1). 

Comments

  • ChrisChris    3,819 posts
    Looking for Battle Hero to do an Astronomite

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

  • ThumperThumper    709 posts

    Does anybody know why the change to 15m with a cutaway in play. Just when you thought we couldn't embarrass ourselves any further we serve up this for a prime time Saturday meeting.

    If the stewards report is to believed Wednesday's meeting was cancelled due to problems at the winning post and crossing. How does changing the rail to 15m and adding a cutaway do anything to protect these problem areas?

    Perhaps transferring the meeting Pinjarra or Northam would have been a better outcome.

  • GLAMOURGLAMOUR    210 posts
    Just reading report on Race 2 we definately are not overflowing in Above average apprentices,even the above 2 Kersley and Tan are not really outstanding talent,just no one coming through,all the good ones have outridden there claim.and Jordy Turner over East.
  • dungydungy    9,121 posts
    GLAMOUR said:

    Just reading report on Race 2 we definately are not overflowing in Above average apprentices,even the above 2 Kersley and Tan are not really outstanding talent,just no one coming through,all the good ones have outridden there claim.and Jordy Turner over East.

    Randy is a ripper like the kid can ride

    thefalcon likes this post.

  • paraleticparaletic    2,345 posts
    dungy said:

    GLAMOUR said:

    Just reading report on Race 2 we definately are not overflowing in Above average apprentices,even the above 2 Kersley and Tan are not really outstanding talent,just no one coming through,all the good ones have outridden there claim.and Jordy Turner over East.

    Randy is a ripper like the kid can ride
    I will judge that at about 12.30 tommorow afternoon 

    Winsumlosesum likes this post.

  • FastmoneyFastmoney    4,657 posts
    Gatting scratched - foot abcess
  • thefalconthefalcon    14,416 posts
    chris'll get a phone call..... 8-X
  • JellJell    478 posts
    edited August 11
    Seems the track manager is not a fan either...

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Naysh07/status/895559045758582785
  • FastmoneyFastmoney    4,657 posts

    BELMONT PARK
    Currently rated
    SOFT5
    no rain last 24hrs.
  • FastmoneyFastmoney    4,657 posts
    Quite a few jocks have a different opinion (regarding cutaway) to the Jockeys Association.

    RIO likes this post.

  • RIORIO    12,982 posts
    Thumper said:

    Does anybody know why the change to 15m with a cutaway in play. Just when you thought we couldn't embarrass ourselves any further we serve up this for a prime time Saturday meeting.

    If the stewards report is to believed Wednesday's meeting was cancelled due to problems at the winning post and crossing. How does changing the rail to 15m and adding a cutaway do anything to protect these problem areas?

    Perhaps transferring the meeting Pinjarra or Northam would have been a better outcome.

    your smarter than that Thumper....Even at Pinnie on a heavy 7 track the rail was at 9m and they all ran out from that.

    I'll help just a little bit, but you have to work the rest out for yourself. Most racetracks have a camber...Over to you now
  • TheDivaTheDiva    10,568 posts
    There's a pretty serious front on the way with heavy rain expected tonight and tomorrow.
    I guess they figure is a matter of trying to save the meeting, vs calling off again, should this rain arrive. 
  • therealkramertherealkramer    5,219 posts
    Looks like the eastern states racing thread is gonna get some traffic tomorrow :-h
  • dungydungy    9,121 posts
    Jell said:



    so is CP stating it's dangerous because horses naturally look for the running rail ? If that's the case call of the Newmarket and Lightning at least they are trying to save the meeting if They cancelled now punters would be in an uproar
  • thefalconthefalcon    14,416 posts
    dungy, we have no control of the weather.
    its starting to look pretty grim...
  • psychopsycho    179 posts
    I will have a guess now, they will be off in the morning. If the weather bureau is 100% correct it will DEFINETELY be off in the morning


  • dungydungy    9,121 posts
    thefalcon said:

    dungy, we have no control of the weather.
    its starting to look pretty grim...



    Saying late tonight mate fair bit of water coming they say
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    6,005 posts
    Jell said:



    Has a good amount of support as well

    #cutawaygoaway

    Haha
  • ThumperThumper    709 posts

    Rio no mention of any problems with the track on Wednesday apart from surface water at the finishing post and crossing. I could understand if the rail was moved out to protect these locations however moving the rail out and then putting in a cutaway makes no sense given the finishing post is affected by the cutaway. I'll have a guess that the cutaway is at the 10m position. Why can't the rest of the track also be at the 10m position so we don't have to have a cutaway?

    Makes no difference to me as a punter I just have to adjust my form accordingly. As a racing fan I hate them because it produces uncompetitive racing.

  • ThumperThumper    709 posts

    Track currently a soft 5. Would hate to think the track couldn't handle a bit of rain tonight. Copped 22mm on the morning of the 27th of August and we raced.

  • ThumperThumper    709 posts
    Enough of my ranting about the track he's my best for tomorrow. Romello has the hoof on the till and will handle whatever track conditions are dished up. Wide barrier suits so he won't get near the quicksand. Don't think his jockey will have any interest in heading in that direct either.  
  • paraleticparaletic    2,345 posts
    After that big storm (in 2007 i think) where all the cars got damaged i think the BOM has been too flipant with the warnings. I could go outside and spit and they will issue a flood warning.

    RightOakAunt, thefalcon, Tucool, jum likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    14,416 posts
    the BOM does tend to lean to caution.
  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    6,243 posts
    Haven't been able to sleep all night so occasionally I have glanced at the BOM rain radar when it was raining here in Manning. It's 4am and the biggest rain formation of the night is about to cross the coast. I think Fred should fit a snorkel to Respondent now just to save time later.
  • psychopsycho    179 posts
    The latest BOM forecast is predicting at least another 15mm of rain today and up to another 25mm possibly ? I think we had better all find another hobby for the rest of today  :-w
  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    6,243 posts
    What time will an inspection and call be made by the Stewards ?
  • JellJell    478 posts
    psycho said:

    The latest BOM forecast is predicting at least another 15mm of rain today and up to another 25mm possibly ? I think we had better all find another hobby for the rest of today  :-w


    You mean until Carnarvon starts at 2.08pm? ;)) :-bd

    psycho likes this post.

  • udontknowudontknow    279 posts
    HEAVY 8

    RACEDAY INFORMATION

    RAIL: 15 METRES; CUTAWAY IN THE STRAIGHT.
    21MM OF RAINFALL IN LAST 24 HOURS. (8AM 12/08)
    RACE 2: RTG 78+ WILL NOW BE RUN OVER 2100M.
    RACE 5: GRADUATION HANDICAP WILL NOW BE RUN OVER 1650M.

    psycho, hash likes this post.

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