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Belmont preview 7th Oct

West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    3,054 posts
edited October 2017 West Australian Racing
Race 1 - Hec Of A Start

Hec Mc Laren saddles up the favourite in the first event, in what should be a cool but pleasant afternoon of racing at Belmont Park. Just Like That has not been afforded a lot of luck throughout her short career. Last start she had a better run in transit when finding the front relatively comfortably but was left a little bit of a sitting duck - I don't think racing withover cover suits her. I think the tactics will be to take a sit just off the speed here and look to use her finishing burst we have seen in the past. The rest of this race is as thin as an Ethiopian on a hunger strike. Red Bananas race form has been horrendous, but the recent trial was smart. The right stable for a big improvement. Technical Limit has ability and can run a big race.

Selections

12 Just Like That
11 Red Bananas
7 Technical Limit

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 2 - Quality Over Quantity

A small field of 7, but an intriguing battle nonetheless. I knocked Our Finest Moment at it's most recent outing due to the apprentice from the wide gate, but Fred Kersley pulled my pants down with a 10 out of 10 ride for an effortless win. Prentice ran second in that event, which worries me with the strength of that win as Prentice is no star. Pinzu has won his last two with serious ease. Taking Clint Johnston-Porter off the horse in favour of the higher claiming apprentice in Kate Witten is a questionable move. I'd prefer the horse carried the 1.5kgs more with the proven jockey.

With the added weight and apprentices on board the two hot pots, I am going to tip the horse who started the Coolgardie Cup favourite - Pushin' Shapes. I have always thought the 1600-1800m is the ideal journey for this son of Viscount and the 2160m of a hotly run Coolgardie Cup was always going to be a tough ask. He simply loses his finish burst over that journey. Come On Board should lead this race with the Wizard on board and Pushin' Shapes may well have his back with minimal fuss. Could get the pie run into this and should be fit as a fiddle now.

Selections

3 Pushin' Shapes
1 Pinzu
2 Our Finest Moment

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Pushin' Shapes (3).

Race 3 - Fire In The Hole

Just Like Fire was an alarming drifter first up (5s to 10s) when looking impossible at the 300m, before showing her customary sprint to dominant her weak opponents. All her previous form is around the likes of Awaken, Royal Star & Gatting and she should be going very close to winning again. Her racing pattern of coming from the tail is always a worry, especially in this event when her biggest dangers - Tycoon Target, Chasing Chaos & Star Value - all race up near the pace. She should win, but at the $2.20 on offer there is no value. Chasing Chaos at around $8 looks the early 'overs'.

Selections

3 Just Like Fire
2 Chasing Chaos
1 Tycoon Target

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 4 - Entree, Main & Dessert

I'm going to dine out on this event, with the appointment of Fiona Bell on Entrechat, unexpectedly spiking my interest. This horse tends to grow a leg for the young apprentice, with two huge wins last campaign. This Street Cry mare SHOULD have won her most recent outing when Takahide Ikenushi found trouble at the wrong time in the straight. She went to the line just as well, if not better than Jetoomy. Jetoomy would be $2 in this. If FiFi (my positive nickname for her til she is held up the entire straight and I get a little more imaginative) can settle her midfield and get her wide on straightening, I am confident the only horse capable of knocking her off is Macavity.

Macavity also has the 3kg claiming apprentice on board and if reproducing his three efforts in Kalgoorlie will be awfully hard to beat here. I am confident we will see a siring quinella for Street Cry. Entrechat is around the $6 mark, while Macavity is currently fetching upwards of $4.50. I think you can back both here with confidence one of the young apprentices will get the job done. Silver Plated to fill a hole in the quartet. The old boy is going better than his form on paper suggests.

Selections

4 Entrechat
1 Macavity
3 Silver Plated

Suggested Bet: 75 wins Entrechat (4) & 25 wins Macavity (1).

Race 5 - Noske Knock

I'm sure there will be many a person disagreeing with my assessment here, but I think it might be time for loyalty to go out the window with Man Booker. Jerry Noske has done little wrong on this Discorsi gelding since winning the WA Guineas on him in 2015. But, as one of the early Railway fancies you do need to consider if it is time to look for a more established jockey. Racing is a game of inches... Anyway, that is all I will say. I am going to knock him here after a 6 out of 10 trial and drawing the widest gate. Danny Morton would have bigger fish to fry than this so it is likely he will not be fully wound up here.

Great Shot looks the weight horse. While the Man Booker/Great Shot form does appear superior to the rest, it all comes down to how wound up the two class horses are first up. Gigante can spring a surprise if they are in need of the run.

Selections
3 Great Shot
1 Man Booker
5 Gigante

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 6 - Two Horse War

This will be one of the shorter priced quinellas you will see at Belmont Park this season. Caipirinha low flies, especially fresh over the 1000m and deserves her current quote of $1.60. The worry with her is the 59kg's she has been lugged with after not winning with more than 56kgs in her career to date. Salorsci's trial was equally as impressive. I expect Caipirinha to cross with Salorsci holding the mares back. I really cannot predict the outcome and at $1.60 v $2.80 suggest it is probably best to sit this one out in a betting sense.

Selections

2 Caipirinha
7 Salorsci
4 Lockroy

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 7 - Rock 'N' Rogan

The third race of the day which I think looks like a genuine two horse war. Roganella is close to my best bet of the day after finding a little bit of trouble in the straight, first up against Arrum Boy. From the better barrier draw this Rogano gelding should sit handier and the 1300m looks right up his alley.

Rockon Tommy appears the main danger but does have a couple of knocks on him. Bill Doughty has had the horse cherry ripe for his trial and subsequent two wins but it is always difficult to keep a young horse up for a sustained period. After drawing barrier 8 and with a bit of speed drawn underneath, there is no guarantee he either finds the front or finds a spot in a moving line. There should be no such issue with Chris Parnham on Roganella from barrier 4.

Selections

8 Roganella
3 Rockon Tommy
10 Moschard

Selections: 80 wins Roganella (8).

Race 8 - Not That Wizard

Really like the chances of the Wizard in the last, but I am not talking about Mr. Pike. Pinball Wizard was huge in defeat after a 3 month let-up when never on the track and only going down to Blitzem Someday (who beat and ran second to Floyd at his previous two outings) narrowly. Barrier 9 is the worry here, though most of the speed is drawn outside of him (Rhi's Rocket 10, Bangalore 11, Tenterden 12, Undisclosed 13). If Chris Parnham can give him a 7 out of 10 ride, I think he wins. The $5 on offer about him doing that looks a nice price to finish the day.

Selections

10 Pinball Wizard
5 Captivated Point
7 Glimmer Girl

Suggested Bet: 80 wins Pinball Wizard (10).
 

Comments

  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    Might be a silly question but whose preview is this and why is it named the blank topic discussion
  • ThumperThumper    820 posts
    Terry get your hand off Pushin Shapes. Pinzu is a moral
  • thefalconthefalcon    19,949 posts
    there appears to be a distinct lack of interest lately.... :-?

    rustyh likes this post.

  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    edited October 2017
    R3 Tycoon Target / Star Value
    R5 Gigante
    R6 Caipirinha
    R7 Moschard
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,235 posts
    Just backing Technical Limit for a big result and see what happens after that

    Good Luck

    hash likes this post.

  • CPLCPL    632 posts
    Gunpoint $200 E/W only bet for the day.

    frenc11 likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    19,949 posts
    ^^ both in the maiden..
  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    CPL said:

    Gunpoint $200 E/W only bet for the day.




    Great... It's literally the only horse I have left out my quaddie
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,676 posts
    edited October 2017
    Pushin Shapes will be lucky to run a drum..If CB doesnt annoy Pikey too much on Come On Board it may give a sight.PS might get blocked the fence :))
  • GrayGray    4,090 posts
    Red bananas blackbooked after that run

    TorpedoPunt likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    19,949 posts
    200 e/w at about 100's...how did u get set?
  • RIORIO    14,882 posts
    I hope whoever made the decision to take weight of Pinzu are happy with that result.....PHARK. horse wantd to go through the gap 250 out...jockey pulled its head off and waited for a bit more space!!!!!

    Thunderstruck, rooboy, Gray, Sticks, jum likes this post.

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,676 posts
    Yes was Not good that, all honours to junior the other 3kg claimer.Big gap between those 2 imo.

    RIO, Jell likes this post.

  • RIORIO    14,882 posts
    Yep that is the sort of ride that reminds you why they have a claim.....Yep talking through my kick, but hope the stewards send her back to intelligence school for training on how to ride through a gap the size of the Great Australian Bite!!!
  • careycarey    6,368 posts
    bit harsh rio, horse raced with its head on the side the whole way.
    not to mention that horses with that sort of running stlye are probably better without claimers on them in the first place.




    RIO likes this post.

  • RIORIO    14,882 posts
    Very Harsh mate. Looked like she was trying to push the Fish out the way a long way out....but that's like trying to move a pyramid with a tooth pick. Best blocker in the state....

    IMO - 120kg of lounge room sitting expert - was that she was looking to get outside the winner...and probably didn't even see the gap, until the winner had taken off, because she was looking to get outside it...

    Hey, she is a 3kg claimer. You get that with them and you hope they learn. She has done her best i am sure...but whoever chose to put her on, probably is where the problem with the ride starts!!!
  • rooboyrooboy    1,421 posts
    Slick mover has halved its odds over the last 20min!
  • thefalconthefalcon    19,949 posts
    and they left it there...my bet of the day won....(see punters thread).... $-)
    the drop in class and weight came to the fore...

    hash, rooboy likes this post.

  • careycarey    6,368 posts
    what's the punters thread falcon?
    is that a thread that not all can see?

    RIO likes this post.

  • BlacksAFakeBlacksAFake    2,372 posts
    It's the Clayton's thread :>

    Thunderstruck, thefalcon, rooboy likes this post.

  • RIORIO    14,882 posts
    carey said:

    what's the punters thread falcon?
    is that a thread that not all can see?

    yes carey, we started about 3 years ago and have keeping it alive, only justrecently....But today was an all in day and just about every tip put up by the group has come in...and no bets have been put on!!!!!!

    rooboy likes this post.

  • CPLCPL    632 posts
    hash said:

    CPL said:

    Gunpoint $200 E/W only bet for the day.




    Great... It's literally the only horse I have left out my quaddie



    It worked out for you lol
  • JellJell    1,201 posts
    Only bet of the day Blitzem Someday. What a ride by Andrew, timed getting out perfectly. Riding well =D> :-bd

    RIO, Indy likes this post.

  • RIORIO    14,882 posts
    Jell said:

    Only bet of the day Blitzem Someday. What a ride by Andrew, timed getting out perfectly. Riding well =D> :-bd

    i wonder if his judgement could have given Pinzu a better result.... #RWWALost

    Jell likes this post.

  • TheSwooperTheSwooper    1,717 posts
    Was a great ride. The run of Bangalore was huge. That stable is in good form.
  • careycarey    6,368 posts
    RIO said:

    carey said:

    what's the punters thread falcon?
    is that a thread that not all can see?

    yes carey, we started about 3 years ago and have keeping it alive, only justrecently....But today was an all in day and just about every tip put up by the group has come in...and no bets have been put on!!!!!!
    thanks rio
  • rooboyrooboy    1,421 posts
    carey said:

    RIO said:

    carey said:

    what's the punters thread falcon?
    is that a thread that not all can see?

    yes carey, we started about 3 years ago and have keeping it alive, only justrecently....But today was an all in day and just about every tip put up by the group has come in...and no bets have been put on!!!!!!
    thanks rio


    Its a basket case now Carey as how can you have a Punters Club going for so long and the powers to be don't give a rats ass!
    As members say ...............what a shame!
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,235 posts
    I was on Silver stream for a good amount, anyone show me some evidence that it wasn't a dead heat with meteoroid or silver stream actually won. The photo on CRIS to me indicates a less clear cut result to meteoroid.
  • SticksSticks    548 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    I was on Silver stream for a good amount, anyone show me some evidence that it wasn't a dead heat with meteoroid or silver stream actually won. The photo on CRIS to me indicates a less clear cut result to meteoroid.

    The photo that they put up after the race showed that the whisker on meteoroids nose did hit the line first. One of the closest photos in a while but meteoroid definitely just fell in first! 

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

  • TiversTivers    7,720 posts
    Other than for that whisker would have been two dead heats (within half a length of each other) in the one race...
    When that last happen ?
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