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Pike v Moreira 4.0, the race to 100 wins

East Coast Racing
The Wiz is once again dishing out an early lesson to the streaky bubble boy Moreira who can't read bias and can't handle tight racing. Soon his run of outs down under will reach the half century. I wonder if he will raise the bat? But I degress. His suspension, which he incurred yesterday, starts tomorrow and in the tradition of Costanza i declare next week the Summer of George

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  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited October 2017
    Pike 29 (29%)
    Moreira 22 (21%)
  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    Pike 29 (29%)
    Moreira 24 (21%)
  • spinkingspinking    3,739 posts
    In your own words come on now Kramer you don't see how that can be misleading. Moreira vs Purtin, Clipperton ,Whyte, Rawiller, Prebble, Berry, Callan Schofield . Pike opposition take out maybe J.Noske then he rides against Turner Whiting Pnuckey Carberrry  Staples Parnhams   O donnel . Take out the possibly the second one from this list the rest would battle to be track work riders in HK
  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    So if the standard in HK is superior why hasn't he ridden a winner in 39 starts in Australia then @spinking?

    dungy likes this post.

  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited October 2017
    @spinking Matthew Poon ran 2nd in the SA remiership and he is currently in the top 5 riders in the HK premiership. He wouldnt get much of a look in if he tried Syd or Melbourne.
  • spinkingspinking    3,739 posts

    That is exactly the stupid kind of statements you like presenting when talking about one of the worlds best. What has the standard of Hong Kong racing (apart from the fact you have to be invited to ride there so basically it is the best in the world for the amount of horses racing there) got to do with his Australian rides. Without having the time or inclination to look back at his last 39 rides here surely being on a horse that can win ie ability, barrier track conditions Luck in running would be a major contributing factor in that. If we were to listen to you it would be about him not being to understand bias or something similar . I am sure he didn't ride 179 winners last year over there last year if he didn't or couldn't work out that. Kramer why is that a couple of years ago I played golf in Singapore with Johny Powell a Australian jockey who back then stated that all the overseas blokes riding up there were trying to learn of him how he gets them on the other leg if the bloke wasn't that good why would experienced jockeys be trying to learn from him

  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited October 2017
    Let him ride in Sydney then. I can assure you he won't be affoded the luxury of a fine in lieu of a suspension so that he may ride the opening day of the season. He is out for 10 meetings after Saturday because they won't roll over in Melbourne. Check his ride on $3.10 favHurlsey (11 March) pocketed for the entire length of the Flemington straight . And dont tell me how competitive it is up there before you watch Tommy Berry let his old mate Douglas Whyte out of a pocket on Moriarty in the KT a cpl years ago.I've no doubt he'd ride winners here if he had the guts to stay for an entire season but his light weight isnt the game changer it is in HK. He's simply not aggressive enough and may as well be blind as far as seeing bias is concerned.
  • spinkingspinking    3,739 posts
    And why not say the same about W.Pike then. You have come up with a excuse for one ride now onto the next 38
  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    Ah but Pike isnt being hailed as better than he is and he is happy where he is riding. Moreira is considered by many as the best in the world and i have my doubts about that. I keep hearing how he gives horses better opportunities than other riders but he doesnt ride long priced winners. Yet when he is beaten on favs they are overbet and not their true odds (whatever that means). So whilst you claim he cant win on horses that arent good enough, you must concede he gets fawned on both in HK and in Aus, so he gets far more live chances than no hopers. He invariably gets a full book of rides (important for a streaky rider) and they are more often than not, winning chances. Swap his rides with Clipperton on race morning and see who comes out in front.
  • Ah but Pike isnt being hailed as better than he is and he is happy where he is riding. Moreira is considered by many as the best in the world and i have my doubts about that. I keep hearing how he gives horses better opportunities than other riders but he doesnt ride long priced winners. Yet when he is beaten on favs they are overbet and not their true odds (whatever that means). So whilst you claim he cant win on horses that arent good enough, you must concede he gets fawned on both in HK and in Aus, so he gets far more live chances than no hopers. He invariably gets a full book of rides (important for a streaky rider) and they are more often than not, winning chances. Swap his rides with Clipperton on race morning and see who comes out in front.

    Exactly the same as Willy in Perth.

    spinking likes this post.

  • FastmoneyFastmoney    4,912 posts
    Current "Race to 100 wins" scorecard

    Moreira 3 - Pike/Lloyd 0

    HK career strike rates
    Moreira 24%
    Moore 13%
    Bowman 10%
    Pike 5%

  • spinkingspinking    3,739 posts

    Its only your opinion that JM is being hailed better than he is not mine , I reckon the bloke is one of the best in the world. And who said he wasn't happy riding in HK were he has been the best the last couple years

  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    Fastmoney said:

    Current "Race to 100 wins" scorecard

    Moreira 3 - Pike/Lloyd 0

    HK career strike rates
    Moreira 24%
    Moore 13%
    Bowman 10%
    Pike 5%


    And Moreira's strike rate in Australia? Bowman, like Nash, has won multiple premierships in Sydney. Neither of them could seriously challenge for a HK title. But in Sydney, they would give Joao more than a run for his money.
  • dungydungy    9,278 posts
    Each to there own but Magic is a freak they all
    Have flat spells can’t believe this is a topic he is world class

    jum likes this post.

  • FastmoneyFastmoney    4,912 posts
    edited October 2017
    dungy said:

    Each to there own but Magic is a freak they all
    Have flat spells can’t believe this is a topic he is world class

    Has been a topic for 4 years

    Each year Moreira keeps breaking the record in HK and quickest to 100.

    @therealkramer hopes that if he keeps going long enough, Moreira will get beaten one day and he`ll be able to tell us he got it right.
  • careycarey    6,368 posts
    edited October 2017

    Ah but Pike isnt being hailed as better than he is and he is happy where he is riding. Moreira is considered by many as the best in the world and i have my doubts about that. I keep hearing how he gives horses better opportunities than other riders but he doesnt ride long priced winners. Yet when he is beaten on favs they are overbet and not their true odds (whatever that means). So whilst you claim he cant win on horses that arent good enough, you must concede he gets fawned on both in HK and in Aus, so he gets far more live chances than no hopers. He invariably gets a full book of rides (important for a streaky rider) and they are more often than not, winning chances. Swap his rides with Clipperton on race morning and see who comes out in front.

    one only needs read ptt to know that statement is nonsense.
    and on twitter he cops the same adulation.
    as dungy is part of this thread, i won't offer an opinion on it!!


    as for moreira,  it would not matter where he rode, he would end up with the best record sooner or later.
    it's happened everywhere he has been based, so why would it not continue in sydney melbourne timbuktu??

     as for nor riding long priced winners that is incorrect.
    he rides plenty at decent odds, and ones that would(and should) be longer if it were not him riding them


    he is the only jockey that i have ever analysed whose record from back in the field is as good as his record up close.
    and his record from any position is far superior to any jockey i have EVER analysed.

    hk has the best group of riders and if has has conquered there, why not there there and there!!!

    as far as this guy is concerned, you are like a dog with a bone.
    you won't let go.

    one thing i learned a long long time ago.
    gamblers cant afford to be biased , because it will always come back and bite you on the  a r s e

    Fastmoney, tony, spinking likes this post.

  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited October 2017
    @carey No dog, no bone. Dont mistake those likes for endorsement. Just those playing the man and not the argument, but that's another matter entirely. Joao has by my reckoning gone 39 races here without a winner. I welcome his participation in Sydney where he can meet Bowman et al on their terms. As a natural lightweight, Joao will be carrying dead weight more often than not bue to more WFA and set weight races. He hasnt ridden extensively under thise conditions. Singapore and HK are different juristrictions to Australia and given the spread of weights of course Joao would ride winners from the back-there's almost always pace! Now is that the case in WFA events or even set weight races? And how many if those do you see in HK? Not many, Im guessing.

    Would Joao take up a retainer at Godolphin though? It would be his if he wanted it but i bet he doesn't. Those defending his record arent betting on him and that includes you.
  • dungydungy    9,278 posts
    carey said:

    Ah but Pike isnt being hailed as better than he is and he is happy where he is riding. Moreira is considered by many as the best in the world and i have my doubts about that. I keep hearing how he gives horses better opportunities than other riders but he doesnt ride long priced winners. Yet when he is beaten on favs they are overbet and not their true odds (whatever that means). So whilst you claim he cant win on horses that arent good enough, you must concede he gets fawned on both in HK and in Aus, so he gets far more live chances than no hopers. He invariably gets a full book of rides (important for a streaky rider) and they are more often than not, winning chances. Swap his rides with Clipperton on race morning and see who comes out in front.

    one only needs read ptt to know that statement is nonsense.
    and on twitter he cops the same adulation.
    as dungy is part of this thread, i won't offer an opinion on it!!


    as for moreira,  it would not matter where he rode, he would end up with the best record sooner or later.
    it's happened everywhere he has been based, so why would it not continue in sydney melbourne timbuktu??

     as for nor riding long priced winners that is incorrect.
    he rides plenty at decent odds, and ones that would(and should) be longer if it were not him riding them


    he is the only jockey that i have ever analysed whose record from back in the field is as good as his record up close.
    and his record from any position is far superior to any jockey i have EVER analysed.

    hk has the best group of riders and if has has conquered there, why not there there and there!!!

    as far as this guy is concerned, you are like a dog with a bone.
    you won't let go.

    one thing i learned a long long time ago.
    gamblers cant afford to be biased , because it will always come back and bite you on the  a r s e




    Good
  • FastmoneyFastmoney    4,912 posts
    edited October 2017

     Would Joao take up a retainer at Godolphin though? It would be his if he wanted it but i bet he doesn't. Those defending his record arent betting on him and that includes you.

    Moreira`s rides earned $46m last year, Godolphin in Aus earned $16m.

    Not the most lucrative move.
    carey said:




    he is the only jockey that i have ever analysed whose record from back in the field is as good as his record up close.
    and his record from any position is far superior to any jockey i have EVER analysed.


    @ Joao has by my reckoning gone 39 races here without a winner.

    I`ll just leave those 2 quotes there as a guide to Moreira`s ability.
  • careycarey    6,368 posts

    @carey No dog, no bone. Dont mistake those likes for endorsement. Just those playing the man and not the argument, but that's another matter entirely. Joao has by my reckoning gone 39 races here without a winner. I welcome his participation in Sydney where he can meet Bowman et al on their terms. As a natural lightweight, Joao will be carrying dead weight more often than not bue to more WFA and set weight races. He hasnt ridden extensively under thise conditions. Singapore and HK are different juristrictions to Australia and given the spread of weights of course Joao would ride winners from the back-there's almost always pace! Now is that the case in WFA events or even set weight races? And how many if those do you see in HK? Not many, Im guessing.

    Would Joao take up a retainer at Godolphin though? It would be his if he wanted it but i bet he doesn't. Those defending his record arent betting on him and that includes you.

    i am not defending him.
    i could not care less if he was the best or the worst.
    to me, he is(or was) just another factor that needed to be accounted for, nothing more, nothing less.

    the rider is simply one part of the puzzle.
    but in HK(and singapore), his dominance has made my attempts at creating a model for there too difficult.
    every race he is in, the model has his mount as either the most likely or usually close to it.
    that's because it has him as the most predictive factor by far
    never have i had anything remotely the same happen to me before.
    in fact i don't need to know anything else about him except for that, to know just how much effect he has on the chance of a horse winning or losing.


    oldhendo likes this post.

  • FastmoneyFastmoney    4,912 posts
    edited October 2017
    carey said:

    @carey No dog, no bone. Dont mistake those likes for endorsement. Just those playing the man and not the argument, but that's another matter entirely. Joao has by my reckoning gone 39 races here without a winner. I welcome his participation in Sydney where he can meet Bowman et al on their terms. As a natural lightweight, Joao will be carrying dead weight more often than not bue to more WFA and set weight races. He hasnt ridden extensively under thise conditions. Singapore and HK are different juristrictions to Australia and given the spread of weights of course Joao would ride winners from the back-there's almost always pace! Now is that the case in WFA events or even set weight races? And how many if those do you see in HK? Not many, Im guessing.

    Would Joao take up a retainer at Godolphin though? It would be his if he wanted it but i bet he doesn't. Those defending his record arent betting on him and that includes you.

    i am not defending him.
    i could not care less if he was the best or the worst.
    to me, he is(or was) just another factor that needed to be accounted for, nothing more, nothing less.

    the rider is simply one part of the puzzle.
    but in HK(and singapore), his dominance has made my attempts at creating a model for there too difficult.
    every race he is in, the model has his mount as either the most likely or usually close to it.
    that's because it has him as the most predictive factor by far
    never have i had anything remotely the same happen to me before.
    in fact i don't need to know anything else about him except for that, to know just how much effect he has on the chance of a horse winning or losing.


    That doesn`t make sense for a jockey that "can't read bias and can't handle tight racing and is considered streaky" by our learned friend @therealkramer.
  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    Inability to read bias will only be exposed under circumstances where it exists i.e like Caulfield last Saturday. Incidentally noted track walker and 'thinker' Craig Williams rode a double. I cant work out whether that last post's logic has more holes than a sieve or a jailhouse snitch who's copped a chiv
  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited October 2017
    carey said:

    Ah but Pike isnt being hailed as better than he is and he is happy where he is riding. Moreira is considered by many as the best in the world and i have my doubts about that. I keep hearing how he gives horses better opportunities than other riders but he doesnt ride long priced winners. Yet when he is beaten on favs they are overbet and not their true odds (whatever that means). So whilst you claim he cant win on horses that arent good enough, you must concede he gets fawned on both in HK and in Aus, so he gets far more live chances than no hopers. He invariably gets a full book of rides (important for a streaky rider) and they are more often than not, winning chances. Swap his rides with Clipperton on race morning and see who comes out in front.

    one only needs read ptt to know that statement is nonsense.
    and on twitter he cops the same adulation.
    as dungy is part of this thread, i won't offer an opinion on it!!


    as for moreira,  it would not matter where he rode, he would end up with the best record sooner or later.
    it's happened everywhere he has been based, so why would it not continue in sydney melbourne timbuktu??

     as for nor riding long priced winners that is incorrect.
    he rides plenty at decent odds, and ones that would(and should) be longer if it were not him riding them


    he is the only jockey that i have ever analysed whose record from back in the field is as good as his record up close.
    and his record from any position is far superior to any jockey i have EVER analysed.

    hk has the best group of riders and if has has conquered there, why not there there and there!!!

    as far as this guy is concerned, you are like a dog with a bone.
    you won't let go.

    one thing i learned a long long time ago.
    gamblers cant afford to be biased , because it will always come back and bite you on the  a r s e


    Pike is considered the best rider in Perth, and rightly so. No one says he's in the conversation for best hoop in the country. Moreira rides in HK and Singapore and he's bestowed with world's best honours. That's the distinction I was trying to make.
  • careycarey    6,368 posts
    as far as moreira goes, the worlds best keep going there(HK) and he keeps on winning regardless.
    yours(and mine) opinions of him are irrelevant.
    if the trainers want him and use him, then maybe you need to take it up with them, why they have it wrong!

    i think he is the best in the world, but that fact did not help me make money, so in that respect i wish he never went to hk!

  • spinkingspinking    3,739 posts
    Didn't think it was a argument Kramer and yes I am endorsing Careys comments. I am looking at the Longines world jockey rankings and don't seem to see W. Pikes name but low and behold oh yes there is JM didn't have to look very far down the list
  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited October 2017
    Ah yes, but where is Bowman on that list? Tye Angland was a top 5 jockey in HK and he is roadkill in Sydney, Tommy Berry, too. It's a different kettle of fish when Hugh knows he can get good rides at 56kg. The way the class system is in HK, not being able to ride light is costly as good horses moving through grades arent going to be handicapped harshly too soon.
  • spinkingspinking    3,739 posts

    Ah yes your as predictable as the sun coming up Kramer , how did I know that was coming if you take the worlds best rated turf horse group ones of Hughies tally were does that have him . And don't twist this Kramer because I reckon H.Bowman is  a real good too. This is about your continual bagging of JM

  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    How many Derbies and Oaks has Hugh ridden in Melb & Sydney? Winx didnt add to that tally. Ironically it was Joao(say it ain't so) that butchered her chances in the ATC version. His old sparring mate Tye got the better of him on that occasion. You may have had a point if this was a discussion about Black Caviar's wins padding Luke Nolen's record but Hugh won the premiership after giving Avduffer and co a fair head start.
  • spinkingspinking    3,739 posts

    Its not about premierships Kramer, if it was how many of those over the last couple of years has JM won .  The longines world ratings are about group ones won since December2016. And don't make this about HB because you were originally talking about our own W.pike, look at your post 6 above this ,where is WPike on that list?

  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited October 2017
    @spinking Im not sure why you keep bringing up Pike? This thread-and the others before it-is just a fun way of comparing the dominance of both jockeys in different jurisdictions. Any bold claims are strictly tongue in cheek. But with Pike, his superiority is taken within its context. No one is sugesting he is better than his Eastern states counterparts. Not even his biggest fan @dungy would suggest that. Pike's only real advantage is that he rides for the number 1 owner in the state.

    Joao Moreira dominates in Singapore and Hong Kong and he's elevated to world's best. The top jockeys may flock there for the cash but they are able to make enough of that riding twice a week, without contending for a title. If the premiership meant as much as an NBA, NRL, AFL title or some other accolade then surely you would see pressure to change the nature and make up of their race fixtures. Handicaps/welters with a class system like HK's undoubtedly favour a jockey like Joao, who is able to ride light weights. Do you honestly believe if Zac, Nash and Joao competed in Australia for a full season, that Joao would be as dominant? He may well win a title but it would be a lot closer than you think(Nash's wins would unquestionably increase) and it would go a long way to silence a lot of critics, including this one.

    I think Peter Valandys should make luring The Tragic Man (sorry, force of habit) here his next great coup. Just imagine the interest and turnover increase?
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