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RJ Peters Stake Day Preview

West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    3,054 posts
edited November 2017 West Australian Racing


Some unexpected storms have hit the west and thrown a bit of a dampener over the start of the carnival. After the shocking news from Northam on Thursday, every precaution must be taken to ensure the safety of riders, employees and spectators. Incidents like that are a bit of a leveller for all involved with the industry.

Trying to guess a track rating is a touch difficult, but I suspect we won't be seeing a heap of rain, leaving us with something around a Good 4 or Soft 5 range. I think it will be more the conditions at the time of racing, rather than previous rainfall which will be more telling.

A competitive betting affair to begin the day with a stack of different trial form lines coming to the fore. David Harrison has a strong hand with impressive last start runner-up Sanantorio looking awfully hard to beat on her last effort. Settling near last as a debutante and absolutely rattling home, is something rarely seen and has to be respected. Should settle closer from the better draw. While that run was the 'eye-catcher', the run which I enjoyed the most was of stablemate Emerald Rose. Unfortunately she is the second emergency here (only one scratching thus far) and Renee Forrest found a lot of trouble in the straight while appearing to have a lot of horse under her. No jockey has been named and getting a run is looking increasingly unlikely, but if this daughter of Patronize gets a start and a more experienced jockey takes the mount the $15 looks one of the better prices of the day.

Expect to see Party Night improve from the better barrier.

Selections

14 Emerald Rose
11 Sanantorio
10 Party Night

Suggested Bet: 40 wins and 40 places Emerald Rose (14), in the unlikely event she gets a start.

Race 2 - Forgiveness Or Madness?

We preached forgiveness for the talented Red Paddy this campaign after two luckless runs, this writer was quite confident of a forward showing last time out. Unfortunately this son of O'Reilly tried to take a bite out of Fancy Fox and from there this Paddy was cooked. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Fool me three times? Well you are a dead set idiot. Barrier one is the key here. He has sat deep in every start to date and has never had a chance to settle into a race. IF he brings his best he beats this lot. Willing to speculate he does so again at close to $20.

The River is the $2 favourite here, and while everything does appear in his favour, it has been a long time between drinks for this Magnus gelding and the $2 looks like gross unders. Even with Hogwarts favourite student onboard. Rhi's Rocket is doing everything right and will take some catching.

Selections

2 Red Paddy
6 Rhi's Rocket
8 The River

Suggested Bet: 30 wins Red Paddy (2).

Race 3 - Nah Mouline

Happy taking a stand against another Pikey favourite here. La Mouline has done all that's been asked of her this preparation with three fairly soft victories from good draws. This is a totally different race however and the wide gate against the far superior horses will see her tested. Unless Pike finds her the cover just off the speed, I don't know if she can win this. Yes, I can hear you all - knock the wizard at your peril.

I am finding it difficult to split my other two selections and I am pretty keen to play a win bet on both. Wrinkly was super last time out when going like the clappers before folding late. There are always question marks with young horses coming back against the older types, but his first two runs this preparation have been super. The rise to 1400m and barrier draw are both big pluses. Brad Parnham can take a sit if he so desires.

War God looks a clear third elect and I am happy to completely leave La Mouline out of my top 3.

Selections

4 Wrinkly
3 Settlers Creek
1 War God

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Wrinkly (4). 30 wins Settlers Creek (3).

Race 4 - A Magician And A Wizard Go To A Bar...

Master Magician is in close to career best form and the appointment of the Wizard looks a winning combo from a nice alley. You then scroll down a little and see the dreaded 'Bar Plates On'. $2.65. No thankyou. Master Magician, Caralabek, Born Blue and Reef Keeper had very little separating them last time out when Master Magician had the most favourable run of the quartet. It is more than likely that will happen again, but the price differentials in the current market are too great to ignore.

The main problem here is, I have absolutely no idea what to tip. I don't like the appointment of Tayla Stone on Caralabek. I find it difficult seeing Born Blue coming from last to win (though the Bernie Miller yard is in rare form) and Reef Keeper has drawn awkwardly. Looking elsewhere the one which keeps hitting me in the face is the lightly weighted Vintrusive. From barrier 1 with 51.5kgs (Kate Wittens MRW), he should get every favour in running.

Not a race I'm going to let my headache getting any worse for.

Selections

12 Vintrusive
4 Born Blue
1 Master Magician

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 5 - Tradesmanlike

Tradesman has to be one of the unluckiest horses in WA in his 20 start career. He just doesn't ever seem to get that soft run, just off the speed which you'd think this son of Trade Fair would relish. Finally he has drawn to get that run and the racing gods will soon let him have his day. Brilliant first up in the Northerly when a reluctant leader, he was forced to get rolling a touch early in the Asian Beau after Corporate Larrikin set a ridiculous pace. His run was good without being brilliant. From barrier one he should find Infathuated's back and as long as he isn't stopping on him with 300m to go, he should go close.

Material Man was a strong Northam Cup winner after getting all the favours. His current rating will ensure he has already qualified for the Railway so I do wonder if this may just be a solid hit out for him. Time will tell. Royal Star will improve ridden colder by the Wizard and Variation can definitely win. Would be a shame if he missed a Railway start after his dominant three year old season.

Selections

2 Tradesman
1 Material Man
7 Royal Star

Suggested Bet: 25 wins and 25 places Tradesman (2).

Race 6 - Winterbottom Bound

Robert Peters would have been rubbing his hands together in glee (as the exuberant racing personality he is) with State Solicitor's barrier draw. The last thing he would have wanted was a wide gate and tough run only a fortnight before the Winterbottom. Only bad luck beats him here and the $1.85 he went up at was a steal. I don't usually suggest hopping into anything short, but this just looks the complete special. I doubt you will see over $1.50 on the day.

Durendal will improve off his first up run where nothing went right. I expect him to run second at around $4 the place. But this will be the State Solicitor show which seems him lock in second favouritism for the Winterbottom Stakes.

Selections

8 State Solicitor
2 Durendal
1 Whispering Brook

Suggested Bet: 100 wins State Solicitor (8).

Race 7 - Oh Miki You're So Fine

This should be the second leg of a running double for Pike with Mikimoto another Bobby Peters runner to draw perfectly. Mikimoto has shown the ability to race handy to the speed and from the draw should sit in the first six in running. Only bad luck should beat her. I would not be surprised to see her come into the Kingston Town favourite after this run. Almost an identical preparation to Perfect Reflection in 2015. Won't be suggesting a bet at the $1.75 here, but would recommend shopping around for the $21 some agencies still have up for the Kingston Town.

Sophia's Secret has not had any luck with the barrier draw yet again and I must admit I am quite surprised Danny Morton didn't withdraw her and save her for the Guineas in a weeks time. It will be interesting if the plan is to press forward again.

Art Series looks the biggest danger and these three should run the trifecta.

Selections

4 Mikimoto
2 Art Series
5 Sophia's Secret

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 8 - Hey Ken

Glenn Smith and Not Again Ken have a strong affiliation and he takes the mount for the first time this time in. Glenn Smith rode him 7 times last campaign for 3 wins by a combined 8.5 lengths. The horse very simply goes for Glenn. His runs this campaign have not been as bad has they read on paper and Mark Wright gallopers always peak the further they go in journey. He is $14, but I do believe he is an all or bust type horse, so I am happy playing a win only investment. Let's build a bank for Railway Day.

Come Flirt With Me is flying this campaign and deserves a crack at a race like this. A good win probably sees him have a crack at the Guineas in 7 days. Dusha Zachitski is a hope with no weight and Star Value is going well enough. Unsure if he gets the 1800m.

Selections

2 Not Again Ken
10 Come Play With Me
5 Star Value

Suggested Bet: 80 wins Not Again Ken (2).

Comments

  • ThumperThumper    820 posts

    Winner of race 2 missed completely. Just needs to carry the weight

  • TomJohnston8TomJohnston8    3 posts
    Dudemanbro in r4 has gone under the radar, sat three wide with no cover last start. Scratched from midweek as well. Has to be considered I think.

    Thunderstruck, hash likes this post.

  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    edited November 2017
    I like State Solicitor's chances in a fortnight's time but I don't know how it's anywhere near a good bet this week. He gets barrier 1, is a backmarker and you're expected to take $1.65 for your troubles? I'm not saying it won't win but leave me out of those odds. There are better chances at short odds elsewhere in the country ;)

    H-BOMBER, thefalcon likes this post.

    captain_kirk dislikes this post.

  • ColdyColdy    1,720 posts
    My Roughie for today Lucy May
    Quaddie Donations
    1,3,4 / 6,8 / 1,4 / 1,2,5,6,9,10,11,12,13 .  %30
    3,7 / 6,8,10 / 1,2,4 / 1,2,4,5,6,8,9,10,11,12,13 .    %10
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,235 posts
    I just have to back Volkoff. Attacked the line nicely first up. Second up, track and distance records all read pretty good too. Each way special

    Gray, RIO, thefalcon, lowza24 likes this post.

  • GrayGray    4,090 posts
    yes Volkoff for me today

    lowza24 likes this post.

  • RIORIO    14,882 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    I just have to back Volkoff. Attacked the line nicely first up. Second up, track and distance records all read pretty good too. Each way special

    After reading last start, how it had been set for a couple of months for its last run and to not get there I can only assume that it has peaked and wasn't good enough last week and cant see how this one is any easier. With not a lot of natural speed out front it might find it hard to get dragged into the race.

    Having said all that, its second up record is very good. The only time it hasn't won second up was when it came back for its second campaign and didn't trial. Since then it has trialled every time and won every time second up.

    If it hadn't been given the Simon Miller promo job last start, I would've been on it this week to win, but will put it into my novelties and back Dainty Tess again......Which should ensure it wins by about 6 lengths!!!! haha
  • MothballsMothballs    32 posts
    It looks all set for another Pike day out #backpikedrinkwhatyoulike
  • TheDivaTheDiva    13,246 posts
    edited November 2017
    "I don't like the appointment of Tayla Stone on Caralabek" 

    how about Noske then? 
    :)]

    Sticks, thefalcon likes this post.

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited November 2017
    In the Colonel Reeves don't leave out as a big winning chance for the quaddie leg...the horse by a Cox Plate placegetter. Alan Kennedy may just get this guy up over the favourite...Profit Street.

    Maybe powering home down the outside with Dainty Tess as Pikey on State Solictor is being held up for a run haha..unlikely! Fave definetly the one to beat but have a healthy regard for Profit Street.

    thefalcon likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    19,949 posts
    PUNTA very generous with touch of silver, dainty tess and profit street.
    great to see a bookie give the punter a go...
    :-bd

    jum likes this post.

  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    7,741 posts
    Coldy said:

    My Roughie for today Lucy May

    I agree. Very honest performer. I would love to see her win it... Either way she will be right in the finish.

    Coldy likes this post.

  • ChelseaChelsea    1,369 posts
    The Zac man will be hard to beat in the last. look out

    rooboy likes this post.

  • GaryHGaryH    1,012 posts
    TheDiva said:

    "I don't like the appointment of Tayla Stone on Caralabek" 


    how about Noske then? 
    :)]
    MF's!!!  $14 into $9.50 says it all.  I wonder who called for the late jockey change.  I see Maddison (named in the race book) is still riding today, so it must have been a late tactical change?  

    Good luck if you got on the early market with the apprentice named. 
  • MinesACoronaMinesACorona    184 posts
    R No Horse
    1. 1. CAROLINA REAPER
    2. 6. RHI'S ROCKET
    3. 6. LA MOULINE (NZ)
    4. 2. MASTER MAGICIAN
    5. 4. ELLICAZOOM
    6. 1. WHISPERING BROOK
    7. 4. MIKIMOTO
    8. 6. AWESOME AS
  • spinkingspinking    3,738 posts
    Dont think there has been much wrong with no place to hides last two runs seems a bit overs at $14.00 
  • thefalconthefalcon    19,949 posts
    i'd like to know why the stewards allowed the riding change from brown to noske.
    changes are always under exceptional circumstances...there appears none in this case.
  • spinkingspinking    3,738 posts
    All a bit confusing Diva said he didnt like the booking of T.Stone Gary H said M . Stone named in book (correct) and now Nosk to ride. T.Stone no other rides for the day maybe she become indisposed earlier today . 
  • lowza24lowza24    10 posts
    Gray said:

    yes Volkoff for me today




    On the ban wagon!, I was on last time. Few things went wrong, Whiting had her too far back and also the stewards notes indicate she was interfered with the whip by Randy Tan in the straight and still stormed home.

    In saying that I still think we are playing for seconds, however 2.50$ a place!

  • Thoroly_BreadThoroly_Bread    2,311 posts
    Whats the go can you watch perth racing on TabTouch?
  • GLAMOURGLAMOUR    677 posts
    spinking said:

    All a bit confusing Diva said he didnt like the booking of T.Stone Gary H said M . Stone named in book (correct) and now Nosk to ride. T.Stone no other rides for the day maybe she become indisposed earlier today . 

    Tayla Stone riding at Essperence,but i see Essperence abandobed.

  • thefalconthefalcon    19,949 posts
    anybody know why tradesman was scratched..looks like his spring is finito...now that was a GOOD horse!!
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,235 posts

    Whats the go can you watch perth racing on TabTouch?




    Yep working fine here
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,235 posts
    Wow Vintrusive money strong 9 into 4.40

    ;;)
  • Thoroly_BreadThoroly_Bread    2,311 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    Wow Vintrusive money strong 9 into 4.40

    ;;)

    i was holding off thinking it would blow out got my plase bet on at 2.58
  • Thoroly_BreadThoroly_Bread    2,311 posts
    geez! that was hard to watch.
  • tonytony    2,361 posts
    thefalcon said:

    anybody know why tradesman was scratched..looks like his spring is finito...now that was a GOOD horse!!

    Hoof abcess
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,235 posts
    Properantes into a railway. FMD

    RIO likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    19,949 posts
    no he's not going there, bomber
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,235 posts
    I just assumed. Gee a few funny rides there. And not haha funny
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