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Ascot Preview, 25th Nov 2017

West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts
edited November 2017 West Australian Racing
Ascot R1. Amelia Park Handicap - Terry Leighton

Hopefully we’ve all had a quiet Friday night with some solid R & R. We’ll need it. Rhi’s Rocket looks one of the better bets on the card and should continue his good form with an all the way win here. The key for this son of Hinchinbrook is finding the rail and he really should do so comfortably. Likely $100 pop Mister Panon is quite speedy and does jump from inside him (that sounded dirty) though Robyne Martin has removed the blinkers after he tired badly at his last outing. Expect him to be ridden a touch colder here.

Lindsey Smith again persists with Get Over It at 1200m or below. This will be his sixth consecutive effort over a sprinting journey. The horse is absolutely screaming out for 1400+. Lindsey needs to ‘Get Over It’ himself. Red Publisher was solid in defeat first up behind Gunnago and this shapes as a far more suitable assignment. Definitely the main danger to Rhi’s Rocket here and I would consider a saver, odds permitting.

Hobart Jones and Classical Prince are both ‘watch jobs’ who at their best could win this. But we are fairly confident we can kick the day off with a little bank builder and I have Rhi’s Rocket marked $2.30. I think we should be able to shop at this quote at a bare minimum.
 

5. RHI'S ROCKET - 6. RED PUBLISHER - 9. GET OVER IT

SUGGESTED BET - 5. RHI'S ROCKET $80

Comments

  • PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts
    edited November 2017
    Ascot R2. Tourism Wa Trophy - Terry Leighton

    No ride for Willy Pike in the first. I’d suggest some trainers/owners go out to the nearest mirror store. And look in one. Harsh, I know, but needed to be said.

    This looks a race dominated by three main hopes; Gunnago, War Jeune and Cash On Call. The three look both the class and form horses of this competitive 66+ rated event, though all three do have some question marks next to their names.

    Gunnago was brilliant when chasing down Wrinkly just off a hot speed. The way that race was run, he really was handed it on a platter however and the rise to 59kgs from the 54 last start is a huge ask. While he does drop from a 72+ to a 66+, I don’t think this is necessarily any easier and I think Alan Kennedy (who I am going to refer to as AK47 from here on) will have his work cut out for him, from a sticky gate. In fact. He can’t win. I’ve changed my mind. This race has only two chances.

    War Jeune is low flying this campaign with the Royal Star & Floyd form looking pretty handy for this type of event. Apart from now creeping up in the weights, he’s also been given a sticky gate to deal with. Luckily for this son of War Chant there is not a huge amount of speed engaged in this. He should be able to cross and sit on the outside of flyweight Forseen. Still he wouldn’t want to be doing too much work to get there.

    Cash On Call looks your winner on paper. Though in all fairness, any time Pike is on a horse with any type of ability from an inside gate, they tend to look like the winner. Clearly a horse with soundness issues (his last 3 runs have been well spaced) there are always going to be some question marks and I’d suggest money will tell a story. There aren’t many trainers I’d back to have a horse 100% with these issues, but the Williams pair probably top that list. If he can settle a couple back on the fence and find some running room in the straight he should be winning.

    Of the others, I find it very hard to see where an upset can come from. The rest look a class below and Glimmer Girl has never looked like getting anything past the 1200m. 

    5. CASH ON CALL - 2. WAR JEUNE - 1. GUNNAGO

    SUGGESTED BET - 5. CASH ON CALL $55
  • PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts
    edited November 2017
    Ascot R3. Carbine Club Of W.a. Stakes - Terry Leighton


    Quite an amazing stat in this event with all 9 runners coming out of different races. We have: Northam Cup, RJ Peters Stakes, Colonel Reeves, Ascot Gold Cup, Prince Of Wales, Asian Beau & three different 72+ events. Form lines become a near impossibility! So let’s have a look at each runner:

    Zarantz – Second last in the Northam Cup doesn’t look like a huge run (and it wasn’t a huge run), but he did clock the second quickest last 600m for that event. Fair to say it was a very funnily run race. He has had more trainers than hot dinners with Adam Durrant taking over from a list which includes Grant Williams, Lindsey Smith, Justin Warwick & Simon Miller. Might be time to perhaps suggest the horse has found it’s level. A real unknown, but is the best weighted horse in this event. A win would not be a total surprise, but probably needs further.

    Properantes – Has always promised to win a big one and finally took that step with a fairly comfortable victory in the RJ Peters Stakes. Don’t think the drop to 1400m suits, though has drawn the right gate to find out. Another who can win.

    It’s It – Doesn’t appear to have come back from a two month lay off. 1100m to 1400m probably not in it’s favour either. Should lead.

    Bollywood Blitz – Another horse who has had more trainers than Jelena Dokic. Liked his run in the Ascot Gold Cup but don’t know if he is a true listed horse. His one win in a feature was when defeating Macavity. Will look to race closer to the speed here.

    Mr Utopia – Comfortably the most interesting runner in the field. Returned from a 13 month spell with a slashing effort over the unsuitable 1000m in the Prince Of Wales when running the quickest last 600m. The Wolfe team have obviously been extremely patient with him and I really don’t know how to place him in this field. Second up off such a lengthy break poses some question marks but does have the ability.

    Tradesman – I thought he qualified for the Railway? That’s odd. Still may get a start when Todd Harvey turns up Variation’s stables at 3am to ‘wish him good luck’ in the big race. Should be winning this if fit. Is the class, has the draw, has the jockey and is awfully unlucky not to be in a Railway Stakes. Looks one of the better bets on the program. Shouldn’t be much above $2.

    Django – Love the movie. Not the horse.

    Zuccheros – Would have a similarly short spiel as Django though The Wizard is on. Isn’t the worst. Probably the second worst, but a forward showing would not surprise me.

    War God – Not a listed horse, though will appreciate the senior stronger jockey going back on board.

    6. TRADESMAN - 1. ZARANTZ - 5. MR UTOPIA

    SUGGESTED BET - 6. TRADESMAN $80
  • PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts
    edited November 2017
    Ascot R4. Crown Perth-jungle Mist Classic - Terry Leighton

    I dare say these won’t be the only fillies and mares that racegoers will have their eyes on this afternoon. They’re also not the only ones which could cost you a few bucks.

    This looks a very thin edition of the Jungle Mist Classic with two horses clearly standing out from a rating point of view. Meteoroid and Volkoff are rated 19 and 18 points respectively better than their nearest rival though only carry a couple of extra kilo’s. The conditions of this race are certainly in their favour after coming out of a lot stronger group races.

    I do prefer Volkoff’s lead up to this event and she should be nearing peak fitness third up from a spell. The big query over this Time Thief mare will be the 1200m, but I am not too concerned about that. 1100m is her pet distance and she has had genuine excuses at her three goes at the 1200m. She is a more complete mare now and will relish a good barrier draw against far inferior opposition. Under a length behind Dainty Tess and two lengths State Solicitor reads well here.

    Meteoroid has been huge this campaign, but it has been a lengthy one. She started to show signs of perhaps training off a little at her latest effort, but that was a race run at a cracking tempo. You cannot discount her but from the sticky gate after a slightly disappointing effort in the Asian Beau, she perhaps isn’t as well suited as Volkoff.

    Crystal Fountain is the query runner from the East who has come across as a travelling partner. She has the runs on the board in Melbourne, though is relatively inexperienced as a race horse. Trying to match up her form lines against the ones we have here is a near impossibility and with the travel factor I’d be prepared to risk her at the $2.50 she has gone up with most corporates. That looks very thin. Celebrity Dream is going well and you can never discount The Wizard, but I have never been overly convinced about her form lines. Willy will have to ride her for luck and find a few holes.

    This looks a race set up for the potent Gary Crispin & Jason Whiting combination and I am happy jumping in at the $4.50 on offer for Volkoff.
     

    2. VOLKOFF - 1. METEOROID - 7. CRYSTAL FOUNTAIN (NZ)

    SUGGESTED BET - 2. VOLKOFF $70
  • PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts
    edited November 2017
    Ascot R5. Tabtouch-placid Ark Stakes - Perth Turf Talk

    An intriguing Placid Ark Stakes which, while being devoid of a star young sprinter (proven at least), is an extremely competitive betting affair. Like a night out with Benny Cousins, the speed should be on here. Cognac, Colourful Charade and Danes Maree all love to go quickly and will be fighting it out to find that rail. Danes Maree is $101, but is a totally different horse when rolling along on the fence. Unfortunately, having drawn the widest gate, it is difficult see her having the necessary toe to do so.

    A bit like the first four races, the on top selection was a relatively obvious pick. Unfortunately, the confidence dwindles in the final four races, so let’s hope we’ve built a bank for when ‘beer punting decisions’ kick in. Hard Of Heart has been absolutely huge at his two runs this campaign. First up he carried 59kgs, sat 4 and 5 deep for the entire journey and kept coming to only be beaten a length by Truly Belong. That form has since been franked and he meets that filly 2.5kgs (as well as having a far superior barrier draw) better for that effort. Should be turning the tables. His most recent effort was behind the enigma that is Fabergino. Chasing again off a hot speed he kept coming at Fabergino on the line, suggesting the step up to 1200m here is exactly what he is after. He beat Epic Grey by over a length that day, and that is the exact form line which should hold up. Takes a stack of beating here.

    Rockon Tommy was given a freshen up by Bill Doughty and it may have been a little bit ill-advised as the horse was disappointing on resumption. It looked as though a WA Guineas campaign beckoned after the way he hit the line over the 1300m two starts back, but Bill has obviously decided to keep him to the sprinting journeys for now. If he reproduces his first three runs, he wins this. Ocean Jewel has opened a very questionable $3.70 favourite after two failures in a row. The blinkers go on which is Simon Millers ‘go to’ move, though the price looks like gross unders currently.

    In Love With Paris will appreciate taking a sit this start after being forced into the role of pacemaker at his most recent outing, while Truly Belong will have her work cut out from the wide gate. Was afforded all the favours at her most recent outing. The biggest danger to Hard Of Heart could be super impressive first up winner Portalian. Circled the field like they were standing still and put the race to bed in a matter of strides. This is a long way up in class (the horse which ran 2nd just got beaten at York), but the authority of the win can’t be understated. The $21 looks a good quote.

    Very happy sticking with Hard Of Heart here, the $7 on offer looks a great each way price.

    5. HARD OF HEART - 10. PORTALIAN - 8. IN LOVE WITH PARIS

    SUGGESTED BET - 5. HARD OF HEART $40 x $40
  • PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts
    edited November 2017
    Ascot R6. Magic Millions Tattersall's Cup - Terry Leighton

    The bookies are calling this a two horse race and while I sort of agree with that, I think it is more of a one horse race. Trap For Fools has taken all before him this campaign with some incredible freewheeling displays. He has not looked like getting caught when racing beyond the 2000m and despite the step up in class, it shouldn’t be any different here. It’s rare you are concerned about a jockey change from Perth claiming apprentice Tayla Stone to international superstar Douglas Whyte. But I am. The horse really rolls for her and she knows when to press the button. I am sure Dougy will do his homework and should be able to make Tayla proud. I wanted to include a Jack Johnson ‘Poor Tayla’ reference here, but felt it may be lost on a few.

    Royal Star is the obvious danger on paper, but I’m not feeling her over the 2100m here. She has clearly been trained for a Railway Stakes and this is very much a consolation prize. Fitness will be an issue and this won’t be a 2100m which she gets a soft time of it – Trap For Fools doesn’t allow that to happen. Happy knocking her here.

    Shinta Mani and Already Famous copped some very ordinary rides at their most recent outings and are both capable of running a drum. The jockey changes on both are very positive. Very Tempting beat Royal Star over this journey last campaign and did improve dramatically second up after a shocker first up. Another in need of more racing fitness and perhaps a better draw, but did win the 2400m Group 3 WA Oaks, only 7 months ago. $16 on offer may look silly after the race.

    I haven’t completely embarrassed myself in this preview with an outlandish selection as yet and this disappoints me. So it’s time. I’ve really liked the trials and runs of Don’tgetcaught this campaign. His latest effort in the Northam Cup, he blew the start by 5 lengths and was then held up for the majority of the straight only going down by 3.8L. Some quick maths tells me if he doesn’t blow the start he would have won by 1.2 lengths! Unfortunately, it doesn’t work like that. I’ve had a little bit of the $151 on offer and will be recommending that as a very small play in this race.  

    7. TRAP FOR FOOLS - 5. DON'TGETCAUGHT - 9. ALREADY FAMOUS

    SUGGESTED BET - 5. DON'TGETCAUGHT $10 x $20
  • PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts
    edited November 2017
    Ascot R7. Sky Racing - WA Guineas - Terry Leighton

    One of the more competitive Guineas in recent memory with neither the guys nor the gals establishing themselves as the dominant sex ahead of the three year old feature. The problem with being a WA based racing enthusiast is the lack of all in betting. So it’s fair to say when the markets opened a month ago, all it took was a nag to sneeze for me to have a ‘a little bit on’.

    Let’s have a look at each runner and a likely speed map:

    Achernar Star – Simon Miller (IGA – everything’s a special) doesn’t mind a little plonk on his horses and IGA clearly was giving punters a big lead with the recent betting move for Achernar Star at his first go over the 1400m journey. He was ridden an absolute treat on that day when he found the coveted one by one spot from a wide gate and ran a creditable second. The betting move may suggest he feels this son of Gingerbread Man will improve with distance. It also might suggest he just loves calling everything he trains a ‘special’. From barrier 3 with male model Craig Williams on board he really should get every chance in the run, but I do think he might be a length off some of these.

    Debellatio – I’m not going to call him the forgotten horse of this race, but is probably going a little bit under the radar. His previous two efforts over the 1400m involved a Group 3 win and the other a strong win when race fitness was questioned. Resumed from a short let-up when tracking 3 and 4 wide the trip and was found wanting late. The 5-length margin doesn’t look good on paper, but he was entitled to be beaten further. Should have derived fitness from that run, should get a soft run from the inside marble and is a live hope.

    Money Maher – A little bit surprised with the current quote, but it is probably more an indication of the lack of confidence elsewhere in the market. I know a few smart punters out there who hopped on at the $41 after his slashing Fairetha win will be hoping that was no fluke. Has showed immense ability in his career to date and a repeat of that effort will probably just about win this. Previous form doesn’t fill me with confidence for this type of event, but looks to have come back a different animal off that short break. On his last run, a deserved favourite.

    Salubrious – Taking Railway Stakes winner Silverstream (we can dream right?) to within a half length is very strong form when dropping back to your own age group. Needed a good gate and got just that, this son of Wanted has taken a very unique path to this feature race. I expect the tactics will be to take a sit to ensure a strong mile is ran, but I do think he is a better horse when dictating. Another who would not surprise me if he won.

    Gaulois – The one raider in this year’s event and not a colt I know a whole lot about. Has been given a real visitor draw and you’d expect Bunbury’s own, Damian Lane, to look to fire him out and attempt to cross. Sparks should be flying. His effort in the Group 3 Carbine Club on Derby Day was huge and I dare say the current quote of $17 is one which won’t last. If our lot aren’t as good as we all think, and he gets across with some petrol left in the tank, he could blouse them.

    Reykjavik – Finally a horse I am happy putting a line through. Is a serviceable type who rarely runs a bad race, but is a few lengths off being a top liner. Can’t have him here.

    Roganella – Another I am not too keen on, though tellingly Chris Parnham has opted to ride him over Sophia’s Secret and Achernar Star. Stepped up to the mile against the older horses for the first time at his most recent start and gave them a galloping exhibition. That was a very weak form race and previous form behind Three Secrets is not good enough to win this. May have improved and the Chris Parnham appointment is a big tell.

    Turbo Power – Out of it’s depth. Neville just wanting to be a part of the big races.

    Arcadia Prince – The question surrounding Arcadia Prince, is how much did that bumping duel with Reyjkavik take out of him last time out? I am in a forgiving mood (I’ve just seen Cameron Bancroft edge one behind) and think he may have just had the wind knocked out of him. The appointment of Ollie is a big plus and I expect he will be looking for the three-wide line midfield. A very interesting runner.

    Athlete – See Turbo Power comment.

    Three Secrets – Another reason I find it hard to figure out Chris Parnhams choice of Roganella over Sophia’s Secret is the form line through this horse. Roganella despite having every chance was unable to beat Three Secrets, while Sophia’s Secret after copping a lot of midrace pressure beat him by over three lengths under a hold. I presume a lot of the question marks are based around Sophia running a strong mile. Anyway, this Steve Wolfe trained galloper is improving with each run and has claims. Not one I am overly interested in.

    Vital Dancer – Think the 1600m will be a bridge too far for this Vital Equine gelding who found the 1400m of the Fairetha a little too lengthy. Will be ridden with a sit here to try and see out the trip, but think the camp missed a trick by not attacking the 1200m Placid Ark Stakes instead.

    Art Series – Has jumped at double figures at all four starts this campaign, continually being underrated by punters (myself included). Her win in the Champion Fillies was huge after encountering trouble on several occasions in the straight. Is yet to be unplaced in 10 career starts, Douglas Whyte goes on and must be a live chance after winning a key lead up event.

    Perfect Jewel – Unlike Mikimoto, bred to get the mile and should be eating up the ground late. The barrier draw has not been at all kind to the Bob Peters camp for the two major features, but this Redoute’s Choice filly has the right pilot to overcome it. Will be doing her best work over the final 100m and would be no surprise to see her finish right over the top of them.

    Private Dancer – A very particular type of mare who the Trevor Andrews camp have now figured out. Unfortunately, doesn’t have the best barrier manners and nor does she have the sharpest sprint. But one thing she can do better than any other horse in this field is sustain a lengthy run. The barrier draw (12) suits her as she should be able to hop into the three-wide line and I would love to see an early move at about the 800m where she looks to go around them. May lack that killer blow to win a race like this, but if they go to sleep out in front and she can find the lead on straightening, she will not easily be reeled in. One which looks a backable quote at the $35 available. She’s tough.

    Sophia’s Secret – The forgotten filly. Scratched at the gates last week may be a blessing in disguise for those all-in WA Guineas punters (yes, me included). Her previous form is possibly the best in this race. A hard held 3.3 length victory over Three Secrets who then came out and beat Roganella, who then came out and won a Saturday race by over 3 lengths herself. Sophia followed this up with a 1.5 length (hard held) victory over Sovereign Trade. He then came out at his next start, sat three deep the journey, and won with something in hand. The horse who ran third (by 4 lengths), behind Sophia’s Secret (Special Alert), came out and ran a close 4th in the Champion Fillies. Every form line around Sophia’s Secret looks phenomenal. The question over her, is the ability to run a strong 1600m and I believe she will look to take a sit here to alleviate those fears. Her last effort was huge (in my opinion better than Mikimoto and Perfect Jewel as she was forced to do the bullocking work) when Chris Parham went for a home a little early. Josh Parr will be looking to find the three-wide line here and unleash this daughter of Written Tycoon. $20 as an each way price looks huge.

    Speed Map

    Expecting Achernar Star (barrier 3), Salubrious (2), Gaulois (17), Turbo Power (10), Three Secrets (11), Vital Dancer (12) and Art Series (14) to all race prominently, though I can see most of those wanting to take a sit to ensure they run out a strong mile. Gaulois will be the colt with the most determination to lead, and although it may take Damian Lane a while to do so, should find the front or at worst the outside of the leader.

    Debellatio should get the run of the race (though risks being 3 or 4 horses back on the pegs if his questionable barrier behaviour is in play) from barrier 1 while Salubrious and Achernar Star should get charmed runs. I don’t see either wanting to be involved in an early speed battle from their good draws. Art Series will have her work cut out for her early to find a spot from barrier 8, it’s essential to her chances she finds cover.

    Money Maher (11), Roganella (15), Arcadia Prince (13), Perfect Jewel (16) and Private Dancer (14) will all be looking for spots in the three-wide line with Sophia’s Secret (12) being the questionable speed map galloper. Relatively confident she will look to find a spot in the same line, though may utilise her early speed to be closer to the pace. The key will be finding cover without using any fuel. These 6 should have the last crack.

    Selections

    16 Sophia’s Secret
    14 Perfect Jewel
    2 Debellatio

    Suggested Bet: 25 wins and 25 places Sophia’s Secret (16).
     

    16. SOPHIA'S SECRET - 14. PERFECT JEWEL - 2. DEBELLATIO

    SUGGESTED BET - 16. SOPHIA'S SECRET $25 x $25
  • PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts
    edited November 2017
    Ascot R8. Railway Stakes - Terry Leighton

    The feature event of the Perth Racing carnival and what a seriously cracking line up we have this year. No fewer than seven Eastern Staters have made the trip across (though I think we should probably call it six as Observational looks to be a gap filler… take that Tradesman). My Eastern States knowledge is not overly deep, so I have asked our resident Eastern States Guru, Nathan Smith, to give us a brief run down on this year’s Raiders:

    The Raiders

    Black Heart Bart - This excellent horse needs no introduction to WA racegoers. Has performed consistently well over East since transferring the Weir stable winning five Group 1 races. The stable hasn’t lacked confidence this week in suggesting they have the horse at its peak after some hoof issues. He has been racing against A-graders (including placings behind Hartnell, Vega Magic and Humidor) in four starts this prep, but has been unable to breakthrough. The record speaks for itself though and is the class runner, deserves the weight and usually thrives on dry tracks.
    The concerns are also plentiful. In his previous three runs he has been vetted either prior to or after the race. He is also carries a huge frame, so hoof issues for a 7-year-old horse that size is a worry. The horse has also been up for the most part for over 18 months without a decent spell to try to chase group races on suitable dry tracks. At its best it could carry the weight and win this on class, and will be in the right spot to strike on the turn. However, there are just too many queries to back it with too much confidence. No-one would begrudge this great West Aussie a well-deserved group one in its home state.

    Tom Melbourne - All the jokes have been done to death on social media, but on form and under the conditions of the race the horse has to be taken very seriously. We all know Tom has been out of the winner’s circle for 20 months, however in six starts for Chris Waller he has run tremendous races and has either found bad luck or one better. The only slightly disappointing run in my opinion was the second to Coming Through four starts back when given every chance by Blake Shinn. He almost broke through last start in Group 1 Kennedy Mile, however after clearing out to fight out the finish, stablemate Shillelagh was too strong. Both of those horses had perfect runs that day on a track which was strongly favouring the inside pad, so it may have been flattered by the finishing position. Nothing could make up ground coming from the back of the field. It draws to get the run of the race again here from gate 1 and providing having its 7th start of the prep (all over 1400m and 1600m) is not a negative, it’s hard to see it not fighting out the finish. If Tom wins there could be similar scenes on track rivalling Gary Moore’s Winterbottom celebrations last year. Tom may even channel the Chocco Williams’ celebration after Port’s first premiership and hold his tie above his head to stick it up all his knockers.

    Supply And Demand - A very interesting runner and one of the few eastern states invaders that appear to have been set for the Ascot Group 1 races. The Waterhouse & Bott stable’s strike rate during the Flemington carnival was phenomenal, so it has to be considered a huge chance in the event. Last start it ran a good second over 1400m in a Group 3 contest at Flemington on Oaks Day. It was off the bit on the turn but hit the line strongly in a leader dominated race, which suggests the step up to 1600m will be ideal. The only negative is barrier 19, Josh Parr will need to be at his best to find a spot as it is doubtful it will have the speed to cross the pace horses on the inside. With luck it is a definite winning hope.

    Ulmann - Comes out of the same form race as Supply And Demand, finishing fourth with Supply And Demand hitting the line the stronger. Has raced a rung below Group 1 level for most of its career, however jumping from barrier 4 with Damien Lane on board should see it land the perfect spot not far from the pace. Darren Weir has taken a while to find success when travelling horses outside of Victoria but after winning the Kingston Town last year his record has improved greatly. The ability to run a strong mile is a query, but if given a similar run to when it ran down the heavily supported stablemate Burning Front second up over 1400m, I can see it look a winning hope close to home.

    All Our Roads - A Chris Waller runner that is coming in to the race fourth up, so it seems this is a target race. It comes out of the Kennedy Mile where it finished fourth, 3 lengths back from Tom Melbourne. It drew the right part of the track that day and from barrier 1 was a surprise leader. However, it ran along and copped heavy pressure from Radipole on its outside and was put away early in the straight by Shillelagh and Tom Melbourne who had the suck runs. It will certainly run a strong mile, but the wide gate has really killed its chances. It will need an 11 out 10 ride from the 11 out of 10 heart-throb Craig Williams to be a winning hope.

    Sovereign Nation - The Hayes stable has been airborne all year so it’s dangerous to write off one of their runners, however this may be a bridge too far for Sovereign Nation. The stable may also be more concerned about ex-WA champion Boom Time’s match race with the ambulance in the Japan Cup on Sunday to focus too much on this event. Sovereign Nation had barrier 3 in the same form race as Tom Melbourne and All Our Roads last start, and after a soft run along the rails peaked on its run like a tired horse over the last furlong. Traditionally this has been an off-season horse and ran its best races during the Melbourne winter against the lower grade horses. It can unleash a devastating turn of foot on its day, but it’s hard to see it sustaining a big run around a 16-horse field at Ascot. I expect this horse to settle near last and find the task too tough.

    Observational - This horse missed a run last week due to an enforced scratching by the stewards. It is second up into this off a 4 week break, has glue on shoes and synthetic hoof-filler, its mile wins have come at Bendigo against the likes of Jacquinot Bay and the trainer is suggesting this is a barrier trial for the Kingston Town. And these are the positives. Not keen.

    The Locals

    Scales Of Justice – The new pin-up boy of WA racing who burst onto the scene this day 12 months ago. Was the beneficiary of a feather weight and a soft time of it out in front on that particular day, but was still extremely dominant in victory. Proved it was no fluke with what should have been a Kingston Town win, had Douglas Whyte not done his best Robert Markou impersonation with 30 metres to go. I don’t like the little Melbourne campaign only a couple of months before this race and think Lindsey Smith is trying to be a little tricky with the horse going in second up here. Unlikely to lead this event and has to carry deserved weight this time round. Where he gets in the run with the speed drawn wide will be integral to his hopes.

    Great Shot – Looking at this horse v Scales Of Justice, purely on their last runs you will see that Great Shot beat SoJ home and meets him 4kgs better for doing so. Yet one is $6 and the other $30 in the market. Obviously, there are plenty more factors to it (SoJ’s fitness, the fact Great Shot has probably reached it’s level), but it tells you this is one of our local products who is a little underrated. Will look to lead this event, in what appears to be a fascinating speed battle. Don’t think he has the class to win, but will love rolling along in front with only 53.5kgs.

    Silverstream – Before the barrier draw, I had her as WA’s best hope in this race and due to my stubbornness, I’m going to stick to that. A seriously underrated mare who despite the horror barrier draw, is still WAY over the odds at $17. Many people forget at only her 9th career start, she ran an unlucky 5th in the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes when running the quickest final 600m. Her career seemed to stifle a little from there and the stable looked to ramp her up in journey. Once she hit the 1400m and beyond, she arguably should be unbeaten, with some very unlucky runs alongside some slashing victories. Fourth up at the mile coming off two very strong victories, she fits the profile of a Railway Stakes winner. I dare say from the barrier we will need to see some William Pike magic, but I get the feeling he might pack his pogo stick for this one.

    Cosmic Storm – The second of the Bob Peters runners who has the dreaded bar shoes added to her gear. Not what you want to see heading into a Group 1. Her last run was only fair, and she has to contend with a difficult draw. Not for me.

    Disposition – Hasn’t come back after a brilliant Hannan’s win with two dour efforts in the Northerly and Lee Steere. Will go out at over $100, and that is probably a fair price.

    Gatting – The decision to give the ride to Lee Newman and cop the extra kilo must be one of the more perplexing decisions I can ever remember. Damian Oliver, William Pike maybe even Craig Williams are worth the extra keg. But Lee Newman? An odd sense of loyalty often exists with this stable, and while you have to admire it, you also can’t help but question the stupidity of it. Would hate to see him get beaten in a photo….

    Material Man – Justin Warwick is a very coy trainer and I get the feeling he may have been kidding with Material Man in last weekend’s RJ Peters Stakes. If anyone can get a horse to improve dramatically in the space of 7 days (I suspect by design more so than hard work), it is J Warwick. Will appreciate the 53kgs and is a real X-factor in this race.

    Pounamu – I’ve been a big fan of the grey since he made his way across from NSW and love that he gets a crack at a Group 1 victory. Don’t think he is up to this level, but his most recent win when defeating the handicappers horse, Variation, proves he is not out of place. Will get back and look to be running on.

    Variation – This will probably give him every chance, but I think this son of War Chant might just be a touch overrated. Last start was clearly a pipe opener for this event, but I would have liked to see him beat Pounamu the previous start. Brad Parnham handles this force perfectly and he should get all the favours from the gate. I just think he may be a length or two off the top liners.

    Speed Map

    Speed has drawn wide. It’s a bit of a lottery guessing what some of them will do but: Scales Of Justice (barrier 13), Supply And Demand (19), Great Shot (11) and All Our Roads (18) all like to race prominently and due to their barriers may be forced to be ultra-aggressive out of the gates. Great Shot should hold up and lead with Scales Of Justice potentially on his outside and one of the other Eastern Staters leading a three wide line. In a perfect world Scales Of Justice may hand up and look for the one by one.

    Tom Melbourne (1), Ulmann (5), Gatting (3) and Variation (4) are the horses drawn to get the suck runs just in behind them with Black Heart Bart (8) in that next wave. William Pike will be dropping Silverstream out to a long last after drawing the widest gate, but that tends to be where he does his best work. Expect to see him looking for holes in the field rather than coming around them 5 and 6 deep on the turn. Pikey style.
     

    3. TOM MELBOURNE (IRE) - 7. SILVERSTREAM - 2. SCALES OF JUSTICE

    SUGGESTED BET - 3. TOM MELBOURNE (IRE) $30
  • PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts
    edited November 2017
    Ascot R9. Tabtouch Perth Cup - New Year's Day Handicap - Terry Leighton

    A really uninspiring betting event to finish the day. And by this stage (unless I’ve tipped the card), I will already be starting to show signs of distress at having to wait another 365 days.

    Friaresque was huge first up, when coming from the clouds for a fast finishing fourth over the unsuitable 1200m. The step up to 1600m here is ideal and if he is fit enough, looks the one to beat. A concern is the stables current form (of lack thereof it), with Vaugn Sigley only training one winner from his last 42 starters.

    The interesting one for me, purely from a price perspective is the differential between See Me Sizzle and First Affair. See Me Sizzle won the York Cup at his most recent outing when a very narrow victor over First Affair who was a good thing beaten. First Affair meets See Me Sizzle 3kgs better for that effort and has the services of a more experienced rider. Prior to that First Affair was ridden upside down when making an early move to lead, when a gallant third to Properantes (who has franked that form with a Group 3 victory at his next outing) and before that he beat Trap For Fools – the only horse to do so at that gallopers last six outings. See Me Sizzle $4. First Affair $13. Picking up what I’m putting down?

    The advantage See Me Sizzle does have here is the fact he should lead this quite comfortably – there doesn’t appear to be a stack of speed in this. With the Wizard on, this is hard to ignore. Outlaw Pete is capable of big improvement dropping back to the 1600m, while Push To Pass is far better than a $40 chance. If stuff has hit the fan in the first 8 races, this may be the hail mary you’ve been looking for.  

    10. FRIARESQUE - 4. FIRST AFFAIR - 5. SEE ME SIZZLE
  • ChrisChris    4,107 posts
    Great preview, don't let the author go unloved

    H-BOMBER, RIO, detonator likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,494 posts
    Great preview thanks for the efforts. We have a few the same which gives me confidence and you have convinced me of Sophia's Secret after starting with Salubrious then hopping to Money Maher (the last win was soft as) but completely right about Sophia's secret and a great price

    Good luck
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,494 posts
    "Best Robert markou impression" =))

    detonator likes this post.

  • SticksSticks    548 posts
    Is it just me that hasn't been able to see the whole preview until just recently? seemed to go up in blocks! I still can't see race 9.. so been waiting for all of that! 

    One I cannot believe the price of is first affair in the last. How that was $16 I will never know! Have had a fair chunk each way at that price. Should start closer to $6 on the jump....

    Meteoroid a big price too. Took a heap of $7 after the scratching. Fav could be all class - but willing to risk first up in aus at 2.4! Doesn't deserve to be that short

    thefalcon, RIO likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    16,016 posts
    thankyou terry, you obviously put in a lot of hard analysis..well done!! :-bd
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,494 posts
    Sticks said:

    Is it just me that hasn't been able to see the whole preview until just recently? seemed to go up in blocks! I still can't see race 9.. so been waiting for all of that! 


    One I cannot believe the price of is first affair in the last. How that was $16 I will never know! Have had a fair chunk each way at that price. Should start closer to $6 on the jump....

    Meteoroid a big price too. Took a heap of $7 after the scratching. Fav could be all class - but willing to risk first up in aus at 2.4! Doesn't deserve to be that short



    Singing from the same Hymn book sticks. First Affair is way overs and I hopped on at the $13 quick smart last night, like you I think it'll be half that come the jump. It should not be that far apart from See me Sizzle going on that form line
  • ThumperThumper    806 posts
    edited November 2017
    I'll do Race 9 for you in 4 words. Pike leads and wins
  • jumjum    2,622 posts
    edited November 2017
    H-BOMBER said:

    "Best Robert markou impression" =))



    "A night out with Benny Cousins, The speed should be on"

    "Male model Craig Williams"

    "From the 11 out of 10, male heartthrob"

    to name just a few

    This is a cracking write up

    =D>  =))  :-bd  =))
  • TheDivaTheDiva    11,742 posts
    The advantage See Me Sizzle does have here is the fact he should lead this quite comfortably – there doesn’t appear to be a stack of speed in this. With the Wizard on, this is hard to ignore. 

    A fairly significant factor I would have thought? 

    RIO, jum likes this post.

  • hashhash    6,443 posts
    Dane's Maree 100 into 80 yesterday after RIO's bet then with the scratching of Kento who was priced 20/1 she's now into $34..... 

    I'm know expert on deductions but would a $20 chance being scratched firm an 80/1 pop into $34
  • FreoHitmanFreoHitman    407 posts
    hash said:

    Dane's Maree 100 into 80 yesterday after RIO's bet then with the scratching of Kento who was priced 20/1 she's now into $34..... 


    I'm know expert on deductions but would a $20 chance being scratched firm an 80/1 pop into $34
    don't know about Danes Maree in this race , but I have seen one way way overs
  • YankeeYankee    141 posts
    Just backed Silverstream,expect for it to win will need to come along rail,don't means beside rail Willy will ride along rail to win!

    rustyh likes this post.

  • RIORIO    14,127 posts
    hash said:

    Dane's Maree 100 into 80 yesterday after RIO's bet then with the scratching of Kento who was priced 20/1 she's now into $34..... 


    I'm know expert on deductions but would a $20 chance being scratched firm an 80/1 pop into $34
    I didn't think 2 each way would bring it in to 80!!!...Then again we are talking Tabtouch!!!!

    rustyh likes this post.

  • ChelseaChelsea    1,330 posts
    It's very rare for me to pick so many longer priced horses at a meeting.
    Red Publisher
    Top Of The Class
    Hard Of Heart
    Great Shot
    Push To Pass

    Rodent, TheSwooper likes this post.

  • JellJell    994 posts

    hash said:

    Dane's Maree 100 into 80 yesterday after RIO's bet then with the scratching of Kento who was priced 20/1 she's now into $34..... 


    I'm know expert on deductions but would a $20 chance being scratched firm an 80/1 pop into $34
    don't know about Danes Maree in this race , but I have seen one way way overs

    His name is Arrum Boy and I’m already on ;))

    thefalcon, SunnyBoy likes this post.

  • YankeeYankee    141 posts
    Visitors draw but had an each way on Gaulois, Godolphins first runner at Ascot i believe.Hard to believe Tayla is off Trap for fools don't know about weights etc but some loyalty for bringing home the dosh should have been fair reward on such a big day.

    thefalcon likes this post.

  • rooboyrooboy    1,334 posts
    Observational 34/1...please surely they are missing a 2 in front of it!
    Has glue on shoes + synthetic hoof repair on both front feet!
    Disposition is double the odds...so the market is saying OBS is a better horse!

    =))
    You have to feel for the Tradesman camp!
  • MinesACoronaMinesACorona    149 posts
    R No Horse
    1. 5. RHI'S ROCKET
    2. 2. WAR JEUNE
    3. 6. TRADESMAN
    4. 7. CRYSTAL FOUNTAIN (NZ)
    5. 6. OCEAN JEWEL
    6. 7. TRAP FOR FOOLS
    7. 6. REYKJAVIK
    8. 1. BLACK HEART BART
    9. 5. SEE ME SIZZLE
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    2,042 posts
    Nice botch job there on Remember Berlin..stuck behind a 50-1 goat should have won ffs.

    SunnyBoy likes this post.

  • dungydungy    9,278 posts
    Still trying tony understand what Carberry was doing getting into a speed dual ??

    RIO likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    16,016 posts
    tell me about it, thunder... :-L

    Thunderstruck likes this post.

  • hashhash    6,443 posts
    dungy said:

    Still trying tony understand what Carberry was doing getting into a speed dual ??

    WTF was Mr Panon even doing trying to lead in the first place!  :-??

    SunnyBoy likes this post.

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