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Comments
Watched it with Jnr and I said the same thing as you at the time it was happening, he disagreed and said it was the right move. Different minds think different I guess, would you still be potting the drive if it was Jnr that made the decision or would you trust that he knows what he’s doing a majority of the time
Gilgamesh likes this post.
He might say he would have stayed in when he's on the side lines but I bet if he was out there the blood rush eould have come and he would have made the move!
He is probably the perfect example of hitting the front earlier and hoping they are good enough rather than looking to hit the front by a nose with one strife left.
Everyone wants to be the next Gavin Lang and not the next Karryn Manning/G Hall jnr/C Alford.
Just has the feeling that there is too much of an "there's alway next week" type attitude to the racing rather than "this win is really important" which makes it really hard to bet with confidence.
horses aren't like driving cars unfortunately, obviously drivers are going to pull the wrong rein on the odd occasion but some horses need to be driven cute to be given the best possible chance to win , for punters of those particular horses your always going to be relying on boat loads of luck
Yes some horses need to be driven cute to win but that horse in that race 100% did not need to be driven cute.
If it goes to the line bolting in a race that it realistically should have bolted in then that is a real turn off for punters
so what's your experience with that particular horse to make you suggest it didn't need to be considered cute if I might ask ??? Horses that need to be driven cute will have runs where the luck doesn't go there way and they will hit the line bolting , the trainers and drivers emphasis will always be on what's the best way to drive the horse to earn , not what's the best way to drive the horse to please the punter
If you cant see from the result that it could have handled being pulled out a couple of 100m earlier then your eyes arent open.
If that is the case why in their prime did people like JT Wawick and Kim Prentice have Russel Betts doing race scenarios for them, how many winners has Bettsy driven??
Or Group 1 winning jockeys gone to people like the late Dean Lecster to come up with tactics for them??
sonny likes this post.
Haha im def not top of anyones list for form.
What i am getting at is it is very hard to have a confident bet nowadays unless you feel 100% locked down on what a driver is going to do so it creates limited betting opportunities - at least ones you can be confident in. Also tends to create over bet horses when there are seemingly obvious scenarios.
Yeah it’s easy to drive the horse post race, always looked likely of getting out as Aiden was always pushing the 3 wide horse
Gilgamesh, Chopchop43 likes this post.
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savethegame likes this post.
Micheal Illsley ran second in two inters finals one W.A. horse Palimar for Colin Joss--other one was Paleface Bubble.
savethegame likes this post.
Easy to say it always looked like getting out after the race because it did!
Just to go back im not saying that sitting the horse up till very late isn't the best way to drive the horse but undersl Tuesdays scenario at the 700m mark when every thing has worked out perfectly for you for the first 2/3rds of the race the best scenario to win the race was to pull out and eliminate any risk that you might get held up. Might not have been as impressive but ensures the victory rather than relying on other factors.
When you see that thing regularly and they do get held up well for me that is a key factor in why betting turnover is going no where. It use to always get trotted out we have the most competitive racing in Australia but that just no longer rings true - so many races are just glorified trials.
it 100% should hold weight or your delusional we definitely know what's best for our horses everyday of the week too say we don't know what's best , when we are out here rain , hail or shine every single day of the week putting the work into these animals is an insult to the hard working participants , these people go to outside source to get opinions , there's nothing wrong with that hell I do it too, it doesn't mean we necessarily do as they say
Pinballwizard, LightningJake likes this post.
You can feel insulted if you like.
I'll put it this way, would John Filardo have a better idea about the tactics best suited to win a race or Glen Moore???? Just because he does all the work doesnt mean he knows what is best come race day.
tactics start at home at the stables , how we decide for the horse to be driven starts with how the horse is going away from the eyes of the public is what I'm saying , you can sit there and look at the field and say this is how it should be driven etc , but that goes out the window if there's a factor that isn't public knowledge standing in the way of us wanting to drive the horse in a particular way, or how the public perceives it should be driven
If you want to trial your horse trial it. If you are in a race you are in it to win it and as part of the rules or racing you have to give it its best possible chance of winning. If she ends up pocketed all the way up the straight what do the stewards say? (Given our currenty stewarding probably "better luck next time Emily").
Friday night they stated they were going to drive the horse ice cold from a bad draw, they did and it ran really well, enough to show that it is on the up.
That is probabaly the best way to drive the horse at the moment.
HOWEVER on Tuesday under a different race shape the horse goes from about a 90% probability of winning the race if she pulls out early to a 60% chance if you stay in and drive it for luck.
How many times do you hear "this horse will be better off a sit up in grade" but they dont drive it with a sit at every start because not every scenario is the same.
I am telling you as a punter when you find the right horse for the right race and it has all gone right for 75% of the race and then the driver sits there for a written invitation to join in it can be a very off putting thing.
Just have to stipulate I had zero investments on the meet. As stated I find it very hard to back in many current trainer/driver combos as if things seemingly dont fall 100% their way they have the "there's always next week" mentality. And I would suggest judging by the falling off a cliff in turnover I am not alone.
Gilgamesh, Chopchop43 likes this post.
Trainer Johny Farnham has 5 horses in work, takes 2 to the races Tuesday.
Missess race 1 and 2 as he his getting out of the track, getting settled in, gearing up his horses. 1st horse is in race 3. Watches that solely from the view point of his 1 horse, that race finishes, he rushes back to the stalls, watches the last 200m on his way back.
Misses the next race while he is getting the gear off, housing down and taking horse A for a walk.
Next race horse no2 is in for the same scenario.
Horses are all ready to go home, he catches race 7 in the birdcage while having a burger then its load up and off home missing races 8 and 9.
Next morning while having a coffee he watches both replays again solely from the view point of his horses, scrolls over the rest of the results.
Then we also have keen form student Doctor Nick. By that same time in the morning Doctor Nick has watched the replays of all 9 races a dozen times looking at them from the viewpoint of every horse.
Fields come out for next Tuesday Johny has horse A nominated, knows he worked well during the week and is on his tucker. Doctor Nick isnt aware of this but as a punter given the horse is racing the next week should realistically have the good faith that this horse is there to continue somewhere near his current formline suggests.
Johny has a sound understanding of horse A, Doctor Nick had a sound understanding of horse A,BC,D,E,F,G,H,I,J,K and L. Has put in a good shift doing speed maps and likely scenarios.
Hence why Doctor Nick has a more solid understanding of the best way to drive horse A than trainer Johny Farnham. It's not an insult to Johny its just the way it is, he doesnt have the time to do what Doctor Nick has done.
From a real life basis even someone like jnr driving in every race gets a great grasp of the form from his perspective but their would be others out there who have a stronger understanding from a holistic view point.
Where he makes it up is his abilty to drive on feel and his competitiveness.
Rocket mentioned him being happy to take the risk of getting pocketed - that is fine because you would be very comfortable in the knowledge he could get the horse out. Others not so much.
sonny likes this post.
Ordering a succulent chinese meal is no crime.
you do realise part of our job as a trainer is to sit down and analyse the field as a whole right ?? How I perceive the tactics of the other 11 horses, aswell as how I have a solid understanding of how my horse is doing at that time, will determine what tactics I give the driver , your students of form ie your Russell Betts of this world, who I rate very highly in that aspect, are always great to get an opinion from , but knowing what we know of how our horse is travelling behind the scenes is something 99% of the public would not be aware of , throw that on top of our own form analysis of the race, we are probably in a better position than "doctor nick" to make a call on how our horse should be driven no ifs or buts
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