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Ascot Preview, 13th January

West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts

Race 1 – Confident Camp

With the festivities of the New Year and Christmas period done and dusted, it’s time to find a couple of winners. Those JB Hi-Fi gift cards aren’t going to pay for themselves.

Perfect racing conditions with the temperature in the late 20’s and no rain to be seen. This may be a different story next week looking ahead at the ever-reliable bureau of meteorology site. Hard to truly trust any weather service after the retirement of Jeff Newman.

As is becoming the norm, we kick the day off with a $30,000 maiden which must have connections licking their lips. Despite it being worth nearly double your average midweek maiden, there is not a capacity field, nor a field with a super amount of quality or depth.

Rebow races first up for an ownership group which is currently full of confidence following recent wins with How To Fly & Flash Of Thunder. The 1200m first up looked a bit short for this son of Reset, but he was well found in the market, when narrowly edged out by You Am I. That form line is an unknown, though the fact they gapped the rest of the field by over five lengths, suggests it may well be quite strong.

Spin On Command was huge first up and can only improve with Pike going on. The worry is at his only previous campaign he ran a bolter first up before quickly putting the cue back in the rack. Friar Away looks well in, while Smoke ‘N’ Mirrors looks well over the odds at $61. His trial was nice.

Selections

5 Rebow
6 Friar Away
2 Smoke ‘N’ Mirrors

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Rebow (5).

Race 2 – Taylor’s Two Year Old’s

Nine unraced two-year old’s do battle against five others who have a combined eight starts between them. Needless to say, the exposed form here is definitely lacking. I really did like the trial of Jim Taylor’s runner, Willow River, and like the fact it showed good gate speed. If this Maschino filly can step out of the gates in the same manner and find the fence, she could take a lot of running down. Jim Taylor rarely runs them as two-year olds which may suggest she is pretty forward.

Selections

14 Willow River
10 Cinnamon Run
1 Carolina Reaper

Suggested Bet: 20 wins Willow River (14).

Race 3 – I’ll Drink To That

Cognac is your quintessential Paul Jordan horse. His knack at keeping these two and three-year olds up and racing, even when carrying big weights, is quite phenomenal. Narrowly beaten by Illustrious Tycoon (who since came out to defeat the older horses), he then stepped up the 1200m and made light work of a very similar field to this. Does go up in the weights here, but it is hard to see any of the others turning the table. Street Fury was held up at a crucial stage, though Cognac still looked to be stronger on the line.

Flash Of Thunder is the potential fly in the Cognac here after being backed off the map in the same race Cognac won a fortnight ago. Unfortunately for connections, he never made it to the gates after Clint Johnston-Porter was thrown on the way. If he has taken no harm from that, he could be one out of the box. Has gone up around $8.50 with most agencies – expect him to jump closer to the $4 mark.

You Am I, Wee Cent and Go Crying are all impressive last start winners in lower grades, but I can’t see any of them being at this level just yet. Looks a race in two.

Selections

1 Cognac
2 Flash Of Thunder
5 Street Fury

Suggested Bet: 50 wins and 50 places Cognac (1).

Race 4 – Mueller’s Mare

Miss Andretti. She was a race horse. Due to this being a shocker of an event, I will instead write a paragraph on how I travelled from Cardiff to London via a very dodgy Greyhound as a fresh faced 19-year-old, to watch Miss Andretti run at Royal Ascot. She defeated Takeover Target that day while the Carlsberg’s defeated me. Few remember she was initially trained by battling hobby trainer David Mueller. Highly recommend reading the book.

Anyway, with that little history lesson over we’ll take a look at this very uninspiring black type event. We have a 6 horse race with Zuccheros and Properantes being no hope at the 1100m, leaving us with four winning hopes. Caipirinha has been backed off the map every start this campaign without saluting. Worst part for all those punters is that she should probably be winning this one but you’d all have to be broke by now. Oh, and she has opened up $2 here. Cruel.

Volkoff has gone up $7 which looks like the clear value. If he is within a length or two on straightening, he can win. Caipirinha on top. Volkoff the ‘overs’.

Selections

6 Caipirinha
1 Volkoff
2 Dainty Tess

Race 5 – Lights, Camera, Action

Derby bound three-year-old Action, looks to have a big future and not surprisingly she is wearing the famous cerise and white of Robert Peters. His recent trial was exactly what you’d want from an aspiring stayer and all being equal, should be going very close in this. Kimbo’s Girl, River Dance, Nelson’s Flight and Forseen should ensure this is run at an even tempo which will only work in this son of Pierro’s favour.

River Dance and Oliver’s Travels (who was arguably a good thing beaten last time out), look the only two dangers. At $2, I can’t suggest him as a play, but he if creeps out towards the $3 mark I would consider an investment.

Selections

7 Action
2 Oliver’s Travels
1 River Dance

Suggested Bet: No bet.

Race 6 – A Throw At The Stumps

Mantime has been following the money moving mould of Simon Miller trained runners as a losing favourite at his last two. A bit like Caipirinha earlier, it is hard for those punters to recoup their losses as the $3.20 he goes up here. Will not have it his own way out in front with stablemate Scalpel likely to press forward alongside the likes of Bounce Down, Copper Fury, Stirling Estate and potentially a fresh Hoboken. Should be going close, but couldn’t go near him at the $3.20 on offer.

Belter is a first up specialist and the pace in this event should suit. I always find it difficult to come at Steven Parnham horses with much confidence as his strike rate isn’t one which excites. So, for this extremely biased reason, I am going to speculate on another who should appreciate the top end speed in this event, Angelisa. Two starts ago was in a nearly identical race when potentially a good thing beaten when held up the entirety of the straight. Looked to be absolutely bolting. He then came out on a leader bias Bunbury track and put in a flat-out shocker. Forgiveness isn’t my strength, but at $30+ I am happy having a little each way. It is important to note Brodie Kirby will only utilise 1.5 of his 3kg claim as his minimum riding weight being 52.5kgs.

Selections

11 Angelisa
5 Mantime
2 Belter

Suggested Bet: 15 wins and 15 places Angelisa (11).

Race 7 – Shut The Gate

An even looking 72+ event with multiple winning hopes. Shady Gray was huge in defeat behind the promising Illustrious Tycoon and can definitely go one better here for promising apprentice Brodie Kirby. Unfortunately, Brodie won’t have Robert Markou in the race to pull one up for him. Been a few weeks since I’ve had a dig…

Top Of The Class was huge at her most recent effort, when coming from an impossible position at the 200m to get within a half length of Settlers Creek. This Star Witness mare has drawn wide, which is actually a blessing in disguise for her. When drawn well, she tends to be ridden up closer to the speed. She is at her best when put to sleep until the bend. William Pike is the perfect jockey for this style of horse.

Going to go with a bit of value again and tip the luckless Helm’s Gate on top. First up sat three deep the trip when narrowly defeated by Get Over It, before being held up the entirety of the straight second up. I would prefer to see this Universal Ruler gelding over 1400m+, but he can win. Has drawn perfectly and deserves some luck. At nearly $20 he looks a very big each way price.

Selections

8 Helms Gate
10 Top Of The Class
4 Shady Gray

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Helms Gate (8).

Race 8 – Even Stevens

Don’t be behind coming to the last. This looks an even a race as they come.

Gunnago should settle closer to the speed from the good draw. Has found one better at his last two outings and will be hoping to go one better here. Which is a really obvious thing to say… believe it or not the aim wasn’t to run second.

Woodsville actually meets them all better at the weights after Lucy Warwick was tagged out for Tayla Stone. Tayla is more than capable and the $11 on offer for a horse who has beaten the majority of these at his last two efforts does look somewhat enticing. Find it very hard to come in for a nine-year-old who has just won two on the bounce. Couldn’t think of the last nine-year-old to make it a hat-trick.

Touch Of Silver, Luke’s Gold and Ragazzo D’Oro are winning hopes, but the one who may well be ready to break through this campaign is Friaresque. Was ridden a little bit close to the speed at his most recent outing and I’d expect a more patient showing here from the in form Patrick Carbery. Gloryland is one worth throwing into your quaddies. Could not find the front last start, and is a different horse when allowed to roll out in front. Is also reunited with Broome Cup winning jockey Simone Alteri. Probably will be close to the $100 mark on the day.

Selections

5 Friaresque
3 Gunnago
6 Luke’s Gold

Suggested Bet: No bet.
 
+1 -1

Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

Comments

  • lowza24lowza24    9 posts

    A very nice preview!

    +1 for me for Volkoff  in the small field with the pace on.

    The only other not mentioned Id make a case for Vandemonian Race 6 with its first up record.

    The last four quaddie could be massive.

  • Tigers2014Tigers2014    51 posts
    I'll be jumping on the Kirby train, hopefully can pick up his first city winner, shady Gray was unlucky on Perth cup day, and Angelisa with the right run in transit and gets into a clear run should smoke it ~X(
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    6,458 posts
    edited January 12
    Dainty Tess from twenty nine starts has failed on only one occasion not to weigh in ( top 5 ) , that was when finishing 7th, beaten just 3 lengths in the Group One Winterbottom.

    29 starts and top 5 on 28 occasions, top 3 - 24 times...that's what you call getting a run for your money.

    Chelsea, lowza24, rustyh, RIO, spinking likes this post.

  • keymeupkeymeup    183 posts
    I’m going to forgive majinika’s terrible 1st up run $15 over the odds
  • RIORIO    13,596 posts
    Race 1...Does anyone know any of those trainers????
  • psychopsycho    198 posts
    Never heard of Neville Parnham, but wouldnt back any of his horses  [-X

    Chelsea, jum likes this post.

  • ChelseaChelsea    1,253 posts
    edited January 13
    Yes,and I can declare one,We have 3 horses with one of them

    RIO likes this post.

  • hashhash    5,920 posts
    edited January 13
    Which one though Chelsea, Keiran has two runners in the first

    Chelsea likes this post.

  • RIORIO    13,596 posts
    Chelsea said:

    Yes,and I can declare one,We have 3 horses with one of them

    So who???? and can you just give us a bit of background on them??? For no other reason than curiosity....Wish I could look at a list of jockey's and know less than half of them!

    Chelsea likes this post.

  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    5,479 posts
    edited January 13
    Tongue in cheek there Rio and yes Chelsea is part of the McDonagh Kebab clan.The Erkelens & O'Donnell combination have had plenty of success over the years. The others for Rio's sake are Towie Truck, Parson's nose, Des O'Connor, Hampson n Delilah and Fairey's a jolly good fellow.

    Who is the author of the preview. Job well done. Very amusing race titles.

    RIO, spinking, Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

  • ChelseaChelsea    1,253 posts
    I'm not going to whisper it to you?

    RIO likes this post.

  • hashhash    5,920 posts
    Spin it to us then!
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    6,458 posts
    edited January 13
    It's just a quiet whisper. :-$
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    6,458 posts
    edited January 13
    The good Irishman Kieran McDonagh has two runners in the first and interesting hoops he has chosen for them.

    In one corner WA's premier hoop Billy ( new nickname ) Pike on one of his runners...and with the stablemate has a 3 kilo claiming apprentice in Maddison Brown - i trust the Irish and that's why am backing both!!
  • hashhash    5,920 posts
    Billy? I doubt that nickname will stick lol he dislikes being referred to as Willie as it is let alone Billy....

    On a side note riders, Waller has 3 of the 8 runners in race 3 (staying race) interesting
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    6,458 posts
    edited January 13
    Waller's three runners in a field of eight all unplaced - ya wouldn't credit it.

    The longest priced one still finished closest. Ran 4th.

    hash likes this post.

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    6,458 posts
    edited January 13
    Hash he just had a few in the Gold Coast staying event...he got the winner Tumultous paid $27.60! Yes it was his longest priced one. Ahhh thank goodness everything back to normal. He's the best! Haha.
  • thefalconthefalcon    15,172 posts
    don't mention Guest Wing to me..won the perth cup after known race day treatment.should have been scratched and trainer fined/suspended but see who the owner is.. X(
    yes I was on Gyno for big bucks!!!!
  • JellJell    748 posts
    Medom could run a race at huge odds. Put in two great runs the past couple of months. One of them behind Mikimoto only going down a length.

    They led last time hopefully sit off the speed today since there looks to be a lot of pace in the race.

    Taken a very wide 5% of the quaddie today. Plenty of chances at big odds that could make it juicey [-O< :-bd

    Chris likes this post.

  • NevershowsurpriseNevershowsurprise    589 posts
    Cinnamon Run is my best each way for the day

    thefalcon likes this post.

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    6,458 posts
    Interestingly named runner in race 2 ; Ship Creek...have been up another similar creek a few times.

    RIO likes this post.

  • RIORIO    13,596 posts
    how long since Donga has got a double on a Saturday???? good on him, had a lean run and good to se him sticking at it

    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

  • TheSwooperTheSwooper    1,428 posts
    Some good horses in the 2nd. Long term, thinking Kelly's Collisto will be the best of them. Not sure what else he could do though apart from sitting 4 wide and letting it stride.

    bookielover likes this post.

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    6,458 posts
    edited January 13
    That was a terrific ride by Shaun O'Donnell. One of the best. Over time been a pretty good jockey that guy.
  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    6,459 posts
    Good result for Demerit stock leading into the sales
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    6,458 posts
    Just noticed two mins ago that winner by the very good horse Demerit.

    Am still trying to work out how Ship Creek got through the registrar of names, but quite like it.
  • SlammerSlammer    17 posts
    Top of the Class for me today
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    6,458 posts
    edited January 13
    If she makes it as a mum Ship Creek, her first progeny should be named; Without A Paddle.

    thefalcon, RIO, carey likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    15,172 posts
    ^^^ slip will be gunning for you..... :))
  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    6,459 posts

    Good result for Demerit stock leading into the sales

    Finally got to see the replay and had to watch it twice. Ngawi was a massive win as she was almost completely blocked at the 200M and losing vital ground. She will be one to watch going forward with that sort of sprint.
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