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Good Friday Racing Preview, Ascot 29th

West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    3,054 posts
Race 1 – The Best Friday Ever

I’m not overly religious. In fact, I believe religion tends to cause more harm than good. So, the fact we can drink, gamble and yell at horses on a major religious holiday makes me a happy man.

17 races over a 24-hour period and an absolute certainty in the Albany Cup on Sunday. This is the reason we do life.

The maiden to kick off the day usually doesn’t inspire me a great deal, but this event does have a different feel to it. Again, this may have nothing to do with the 16 events to follow. Ascot has been playing slightly leader/rail bias the past few weeks, more so than the beginning of the season and for that reason Clever Dick will be the selection here by a bee’s. His last two runs before a spell were huge (when strong money came), before he was freshened up, trialled like Black Caviar and was nailed late first up. From the good gate, Andrew Castle should have this son of Dick Turpin in the first four in running and be given every chance. At around the $6 mark, he looks a relatively ‘safe’ each way bet. ‘Safe’ – a great word to use when punting.

Thisaway was the horse to be edged out in my selections and comes in with the differing form lines. Fourth at York doesn’t necessarily read all that well, though the form from that race has stood up. His third behind Frosty Beverage last start was a huge effort given the conditions. Despite descending from the carpark, his last 600m was over half a second quicker than anything else in the race.

Friar’s Classic and Tips And Scandals look the other two logical dangers, while I am happy taking on current fixed odds favourite Texas Moon. Mambazo ($61), Second Vita ($51) & Monsar ($51) are the three ‘overs’ for all the exotic players out there.

Selections

1 Clever Dick
5 Thisaway
14 Friar’s Classic

Suggested Bet: 25 wins and 25 places Clever Dick (1).


Race 2 – Shooter

‘Shooter’ McGruddy is the man with the golden whip at the moment and I am fairly confident he is the right man to upset favourite Tellem We’re Comin here. Echoes In Time is a very particular mare. Her last six outings she has not drawn inside gate eight and has been in the last three or four in running. Furthermore, five of those events were over 1400m, with all three career victories coming over the mile. Her last two victories she was piloted by Shaun McGruddy and on both occasions, she settled ON pace. She made her move before the bend and sustained a strong run to the line – both wins were quite comfortable. From barrier two, in a race devoid of a huge amount of speed, she should be afforded a similar run here. I think (hope) Shooter knows exactly what he has to do. She is currently $20. I have this as considerable overs, though it is important to note on her previous two victories she was not wanted in betting at all. She could jump at any old price.

Tellem We’re Comin is on a potential WA Derby preparation and is the horse to beat. His win on a leader bias Ascot last start was huge, though there is the danger he will be giving the horses out in front a big head start once again. Always a risk taking $1.65 about a sit and sprinter on a leader bias Ascot track. Summit Trail should lead this with ease and Matthieu Autier may be the right jockey for this type of horse. Not convinced Thunder Boom is going all that well.

If we can get this mare up, there will certainly be some reverberations around Ascot.

Selections

9 Echoes In Time
1 Tellem We’re Comin
3 Summit Trail

Suggested Bet: 40 wins and 40 places Echoes In Time.


Race 3 – Jai Taurima

You know those type of races you look at for about 20 minutes and just end up reaching for a couple of Panadol and calling it a night? This is one of those. Gifted Warrior does look to be the horse with the most upside here and Shooter could be well placed for a running double. This son of War Chant has been patiently handled by the small but strong Robert and Todd Harvey stable and with a good ride from the wide gate, should be the horse to beat. At $3.30 from the wide alley on a potential on pace bias day, it isn’t something I would get overly excited about.

Ramruey looks a clear second elect after a slashing second, first up over the unsuitable 1000m. Have a lot of time for Anne King as a trainer – very under rated. This son of Kendel Star does on occasion have some barrier issues and if failing to jump from the inside gate, might find himself 3 or 4 back on the fence. With a wall of slow horses in front of him he may need to be ‘Jumping’ Jai Tuarima to get over the top of them. The first 50m of the race is crucial to his chances.

The bar shoe goes on the William Pike ridden Kamiko and I don’t think the 1200m suits, while Vital Asset looks to be bolting this campaign, but is drawn to have a good nights sleep after the race. Hard to get enthused about Lisa Staples from deep car park.

Ramruey at around $7 looks a potential each way play here, but this isn’t a race I’d put the rent on.

Selections

1 Ramruey
7 Gifted Warrior
9 Total Eclipse

Suggested Bet: 15 wins and 15 places Ramruey (1).


Race 4 – Donald Bradman

New Time brought up the Bradman in style with a soft victory first up. This race barely looks any harder and it could be another fairy-tale story if Emma Stent can salute on her return to the race track. Here are a few clichés you will hear used to describe New Time throughout the day:
- Tough as old boots
- He’s just a war horse isn’t he?
- Such a great horse for connections
- Wouldn’t you like to own one like him?
- He’s a horse you’d love to go into battle with
If you don’t hear all of them used by Mark Worwood pre-race, I will eat my bar shoe.

He really is a horse you’d love to own though.

A little bit like a 1997 Natalie Imbruglia, I am Torn here. New Time is my clear on top selection, though the horse who should land on his outer; Wavehill Spur, is clearly the value. I’ve marked him a comfortable second favourite with strong runs behind the likes of Western Temple and Sweet Ora at recent outings. He should get it easy outside, or even trailing New Time and will appreciate a senior jockey on for the first time this campaign. How he is $20 compared to a horse like Freecell at $6 is quite absurd. And I don’t use the word absurd lightly.

Let’s play both.

Selections
1 New Time
4 Wavehill Spur
7 Broker

Suggested Bets: 50 wins New Time (1). 15 wins and 35 places Wavehill Spur (4).


Race 5 – Beau Of The Ball

I wasn’t overly enthused about the third event of the day, but for this one I have even less interest. For that reason, I am going to tip a horse at $61 who probably has as much chance of winning as David Warner being the next prime minister of Australia. Surprised it took me five races to crack a #SandPaperGate joke.

Brad Graham usually turns to Ryan Hill over stable apprentice Sasha Starley when he feels like he has a horse ready to win. The money tends to come and the overall record (on a ROI basis) is extremely positive. Beaucount has not been handled well by jockey or trainer through his 16-start career and his record could be a lot more flattering had he been so. First up last campaign, Sasha Starley rode him to victory. Sasha doesn’t have the greatest record at being a jockey. So this is some type of achievement. She sat him deep throughout in a 5-horse field and the horse was simply too good. If Ryan Hill was on that day, he probably wins by 5. His previous first up effort (while being trained by Fred Kersley), Lee Newman sat him 3 deep throughout over the 1200m journey when going down in a tight tussle with the very smart Cash On Call. This is a horse that Fred Kersley debuted over the mile (when winning – it was an incredible effort for a first starter) before backing him up 17 days later over 1200m. I am not a trainer. But this isn’t doesn’t seem like great horsemanship. The horse would have been a very confused commodity. Things got worse. At this third career start Fred chucked Steve Parnham on board, from a wide gate in a LISTED race. He sat 3 deep the journey, only just missing a place. This horse has serious talent – he just needs the right placement.

Hoboken, Denim Pack & Keeper’s Tale all look strong winning chances, while Undisclosed is the unknown first up. The market will give you a good guide to this Alfred Nobel mare’s chances.

The 1100m may be too short for Beaucount who no doubt will be sit and sprinting here, but if the race does pan out that way, I would not be surprised to see him finish over the top of them. $71 the win and $15 the place is currently available.

Selections

7 Beaucount
2 Denim Pack
1 Hoboken

Suggested Bet: 10 wins and 25 places Beaucount (7).


Race 6 – Pike’s Pick

With Driftstar opening at $1.35, the most interesting part about this race may be whether the performance of Driftstar is enough to convince Pike to take the mount in the Karrakatta. Lady Cosmology & Assetro may have something to say about that.

This Sepoy gelding trialled brilliantly, before a dominant win. That race hasn’t turned out to be a huge form race, but he really could not have done much more. Chix Pic was huge on his debut win and looks the obvious danger.

Not a race to bet in, but a race which will help shape the Karrakatta market.

Selections

4 Driftstar
3 Chix Pic
2 King Of Planets

Suggested Bet: No bet.


Race 7 – Filly Frenzy

This is comfortably the best race across the two-day Ascot bonanza. All eyes again will be on William Pike and how he handles the enigmatic filly Assetro. There is no doubt she possesses a heap of ability, but as a betting proposition she is a heart in mouth type. Not how I like my $2 pops. If she has matured and learnt a bit more about the caper since her last run and can jump and settle closer to the speed, she will take Karrakatta favouritism away from Lady Cosmology.

Chris Parnham had a nice choice to make here with the rides on both Nocelle and Princess Pierro available to him. He has opted for the latter, though the market doesn’t quite reflect this decision with Nocelle still shorter in the market. At $11 you have to think Princess Pierro is the each way value in the race. Despite still being a maiden, she looks to have an abundance of talent and breaking through here would be no surprise. It is the first time in her short career she is stringing two races together.

Agent Pippa was slightly disappointing first up, though some of that performance could be attributed to the pressure put on by Party Night three deep. From barrier 2, she should lead this and if getting it softer out in front may be very hard to catch.

A great race, where my top pick and suggested bet will be purely going on the $11 currently available for Princess Pierro.

Selections

4 Princess Pierro
2 Assetro
3 Agent Pippa

Suggested Bet: 20 wins and 20 places Princess Pierro (4).


Race 8 – Headache

Another Panadol race. Trying to decipher which horses will get the 2100m and which will falter can be a difficult/impossible task, but when the majority possess no real ability it makes it even tougher.

Perceptive Miss and Send My Love come out of the strongest form race with two very good runs behind Like A Butterfly in the listed 1000 Guineas a fortnight ago. Both should be improved for the run over the 1800m and both looked like the 2100m would not be an issue. I have really appreciated how Jason Brown has handled Perceptive Miss, so the jockey change to Andrew Castle is not one I’m too excited about.

In a race where I do think value will be found, I am going to look a little bit further afield with my on top selection and plump for the Trevor Andrews trained Lucky Escape. I had my eye on this Star Witness gelding at his first campaign, when hitting the line well as a two-year-old. He has shown that type of form again this campaign when Trevor Andrews stepped him out to the 1900-2000 at his last two outings. While I don’t think the $170/1 Midwest Crown form is huge, he should have won that race and from the good gate here Jarrad Noske will look to have him up closer to the speed.

Alezan, Watch Me Ney Ney and American Joy look like the next best. This will be a wide quaddie leg.

Selections

7 Lucky Escape
3 American Joy
9 Send My Love

Suggested Bet: 10 wins and 10 places Lucky Escape (7).

Race 9 – The Entirety Of Oz

With Ascot and Kalgoorlie being the only two racing meets on in Australia, you can imagine how much money will be coming for William Pike in the last. Especially when on paper, it looks close to a good thing.

Was narrowly beaten by Plays The Game at her most recent outing, who franked that form when just missing a place in the Bunbury Cup. The form lines are that much superior to the rest of the field, that it really makes it hard to look elsewhere. The danger on paper appears to only be bad luck and I am loathe to get stuck in to anything at the even money quote from an inside draw at a close to capacity field.

Infinite Beauty looks like a horse who will appreciate the 2200m. While Midnight Banquet’s form has been further franked by Mississippi Delta’s win on Wednesday. It will be interesting to see if this horse goes back to his usual role as pace maker here. Blue Tracer is capable of winning a race like this, but they simply do not understand the horse. He can stay all day and needs to be ridden accordingly. Aggression.

Selections

2 Magical Charm
7 Infinite Beauty
6 Blue Tracer

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Comments

  • saxonsaxoffsaxonsaxoff    179 posts
    Another great preview. Pike will have more eyes on him in the last than Cam Bancrofts junks had in the last week. 

    thefalcon, Thunderstruck likes this post.

  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    That first paragraph, jokes aside not a truer word said ^:)^

    Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • TheDivaTheDiva    13,246 posts
    not sure enigmatic is the right word for assetro...
    3 starts, 2 wins and the other was desperately unlucky.
    perhaps a risky bet... but definitely not enigmatic. 

  • thefalconthefalcon    19,949 posts
    wots the pea for the Albany cup?
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,676 posts
    Ramruey was a good run first up as he looks a 1400m+ horse.
    Hope he has a deep enough prep to strike some wet ground in his next couple of starts.

    Depending on the P+L situation by r8 i also like Lucky Escape, was on last start can figure at good ew odds.
    Actually had marked Infinite Beauty as my preference in the last too :-O hope you(and I) have half a clue @Terry or we'll be "singin for our supper"
    Probably wouldn't want to be chasing losses come these last two races.
  • LETSDOTHISLETSDOTHIS    298 posts
    Not again ken is the certainty I'm guessing?
  • pikerpiker    404 posts
    The first 5 races give m the shakes; low prizemoney and no stand outs for me.

    Race 6/ Driftstar is v v short.
    When i look at the times from Chixpic, they seem v similar to the fave; so it's the go for me.
    Rebel Knight was such a good run after a wide trip; have to put him in again.

    Race 7/  I keep worrying about Assetro settling so far back at Ascot.
    So, looking elsewhere, can Agent Pippa do a Money Mahar? This her last chance.
    Princess Pierro and Cockatiel are amazing prices for their form so far.
    I cannot leave out First Strike; wide and beaten fave last time.

    Race 8/ Here are lightly raced 3yo's on the improve.
    My guess is Send my Love (never seen Paddy ride better).
    Others of course are American Joy, Watch me Ney Ney, Perceptive Miss, Alezan and Lucky Escape.

    Race 9/ The short price on Magical Charm as a 3YO filly against older horses maks you want to look elsewhere.
    Midnight Banquet in front would be hard to run down.
    I keep looking at Drivin Me Wild as his maiden win was by a good margin with an amazingly good last section.

    You know the story of Jesus interrupting the crowd about to ston the woman of ill repute?
    He said 'Let he or she who is without sin cast the first stone'.
    Everybody shrank back.
    But on woman came forward and threw a small pebble.
    Jesus turned to her and said Mum, did you really have to do that?

    My thoughts and prayers go to Steve Smith, who I am sure is a nice guy like most of us and who makes an occasional error.

    To err is human; to forgive is divine.
  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    TheDiva said:

    not sure enigmatic is the right word for assetro...

    3 starts, 2 wins and the other was desperately unlucky.
    perhaps a risky bet... but definitely not enigmatic. 




    Enegmatic racing pattern, will always be a risky betting proposition that horse

  • paraleticparaletic    3,750 posts
    Would love to see what they have planned for Assetro. I wonder if it will stay and if so if they want to take to the vic oaks?
  • thefalconthefalcon    19,949 posts
    vic oaks.... =))
  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    Could be the next Miss Finland the way it races
  • thefalconthefalcon    19,949 posts
    u been on the whacky bakky hashie olde mate...
  • JellJell    1,201 posts
    edited March 2018

    Not again ken is the certainty I'm guessing?


    Yeah pretty sure. Terry’s made several comments in regards to him saying they need to let him do his thing and just roll along in front.

    The Frenchman is no world beater but he is quite good when it comes to leading and just letting the horse “do it’s thing”.
  • ThumperThumper    820 posts
    Hoboken
  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    thefalcon said:

    u been on the whacky bakky hashie olde mate...

    I just thought while we were on the topic of setting unrealistic goals for WA horse i'd add my 2c

    thefalcon likes this post.

  • pikerpiker    404 posts
    I got it Hash; the first time.
    I am warming to an extra quad ; NSW TAB have it on Races 2,3,4,and 5.
    They refer correctly to Ms J Noske here but always have Ms M Autier!?!
    In R 5 I have to put in Hoboken even after the disiappointments.
    Deni Pak looks the winner; consistently breaks 34 for last sectional.
    Undisclosed has really good form 2 preps back, so I cannot leave him out.
    Down to 8 runners in R4 with the toppie and Deadly Shot prominent for me (amazing price on the latter last run).
    R3 is a raffle but Kamiko has nose band on 1st time and W Pike
    R2 Echoes in Time has winkers on 1st time but is wearing bar plates.
    Looks here like the toppie or a guess at the rest.
    Wouldnt Wally love to win this one with one of his at 30's to 40's!
  • udontknowudontknow    483 posts
    Haven't for a while so here goes.

    R1- Mambazo
    R2- Big Red Costa
    R3- Vital Asset
    R4- Net Profit
    R5- Keeper's Tale
    R6- Driftstar
    R7- Bam's On Fire
    R8- Perceptive Miss
    R9- Midnight Banquet

    Best bet. Vital Asset. Didn't see daylight last start. 59KG wide barrier could make it a little harder but the wide barrier could also be the winning way!

    Goodluck all.


  • pikerpiker    404 posts
    Ok; Vital Asset is in for R3.
    I will have to put Cyberpunk in to R2 as has won over 1600 and sees to be looking for the distance.
  • DillingerDillinger    43 posts
    Looking for a bit of chockie $$

    R1 Unending
    R2 Thunder Boom
    R3 Melros Beach
    R4 Broker
    R5 Herron Point
    R6 rebel Knight
    R7 princess Pierro
    R8 Young Thor
    R9 Magical Charm

    Good luck to those having a crack today.

    thefalcon likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    19,949 posts
    had 2 bets last night...princess p and lucky escape...... @-)

    hash likes this post.

  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    @udontknow & @Dillinger will only need to nail one or two winners from your tips and you'll both be well in front, tipped a few at big odds there lads 
  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    edited March 2018
    thefalcon said:

    had 2 bets last night...princess p and lucky escape...... @-)

    you know i'd never doubt or disagree with you falc but today for a first I will.... Lucky Escape (still a maiden) how can you look passed Perceptive Miss (drops in grade big time and will eat up the 2000+)  :-?
  • paraleticparaletic    3,750 posts
    edited March 2018
    Looking forward to chilling out in front of the tv and not worrying about races everywhere else. Also, if WA races get shunted to Sky 2 today we are in serious barney rubble B-)

    Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • YankeeYankee    299 posts
    R4 Very keen A Bit Sketchy EW.
    R5 Also keen Undisclosed.
    All up the hotpots R2 R6 R7
  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    Kal r5 is due to jump at 4:35 and Ascot race 8 is due for 4:45
    i'll bet you a pint Kal jumps 8 mins late and gets within a bee's dickk of clashing 

    thefalcon likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    19,949 posts
    no reason to shunt to sky2, para..
  • paraleticparaletic    3,750 posts
    I know, it was a joke
  • FlandersFlanders    1,199 posts
    will ascot will ascot be on Sky Thoroughbred Central today?
  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    thefalcon said:

    no reason to shunt to sky2, para..

    they may have to make way for the trots at Yonkers... there is a carryover jackpot of $900 in the quinella pool for the second race 
  • JellJell    1,201 posts
    Flanders said:

    will ascot will ascot be on Sky Thoroughbred Central today?

    They broadcast it all on there last year with Gareth Hall, I can't see any reason why they wouldn't do it again this year.

    hash likes this post.

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