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Belmont Preview, 11th August

West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts

Race 1 – Renouncement

After being raised in WA and a proud sandgroper (the construction and erection of the Bell Tower was probably the moment where my pride peaked), I would like to formally renounce my allegiances to the state of Western Australia. I categorically reject the idea I can be cut from the same cloth as the people who choose to react in the manner they are over ‘that incident’. For the legion of Harry Potter lovers out there, it now falls in the Voldemort category as I can no longer hear or mention ‘He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named’. People I know in society who on the surface would appear to be upstanding figures. Doctors, lawyers, nurses. Descend into complete and utter madness, clattering over each other to have the most outlandish, mentally disturbing opinion.

This is one I want to share. “Fremantle you dogs”. This is from a university educated member of society. What is that? Honestly what is that? It’s like having a unique form of Tourette’s which instead of coming out of your mouth, comes out of your fingers onto a keyboard where you manage to halve your IQ in under 30 seconds.

I reckon there would be a few mirror stores doing some good business this week in Perth. People seriously need to have a good hard look.

I’m too outraged to care about a weak maiden. Scandalous Miss should be going close if managing to cross the field, but the presence of several speedsters on her inside is a worry. She has really good early speed but seems to have a few of the ex-stable mate ‘Mervyn’s’ traits, in not having the worlds biggest tank. If she gets stuck deep, look for the Durrant trained Admiral Husson to be closing late.

I like Rebecca Shanks work on twitter, so for that reason alone I’ll lob her runner in for third.

Selections

10 Scandalous Miss
8 Admiral Husson
5 Our Mate Boots

Suggested Bet: No bet.
 

Race 2 – Our White Knight

Mitchell Pateman is riding like a man possessed at the moment and should go very close to adding to his run of recent city victories with Rebel Knight. A bit like a lot of the runners on this card, he was entered to run 10 days ago before the spate of abandonments. With stables mapping out entire campaigns weeks in advance, this type of interruption can always be a worry, but we’ll trust this astute stable to have him at the peak of his powers here. The Samizdat form will look strong long term and his effort was huge in that event considering the top end speed. Can handle a wet track.

Kiss The Breeze appears the obvious danger after a luckless campaign. Pike has been critical of his handling of this Star Witness filly, but I don’t think there is much more he could have done last start when she appeared to be bolting on the back of a few horses who had their hooves on the brakes. Borrowing Elite Belle’s pogo stick may have been his only option. Goes back here and will be running on late. Will be well supported.

Classic Pro is a horse I’ve had my eye on all campaign. Has continually got back in running and hit the line well. Kate Witten and Renee Forrest have been piloting this Proart filly all campaign and I expect that she will appreciate the services of the more seasoned Lucy Warwick. At around the $20-25 mark she definitely appears to be your each way value – on a place heavy basis.

I do like sticking with the on speed two-year old’s however and for that reason will be with the inform Mitch Pateman.

Selections

2 Rebel Knight
1 Kiss The Breeze
9 Classic Pro

Suggested Bet: 70 wins Rebel Knight (2).
 

Race 3 – Pike’s Peter’s Preference

Glenn Smith will be thanking his lucky stars with Pike’s Peter’s preference. In what is as clear a two-horse race you will see, Red Army does look to have the edge on State Prosecutor, if for no other reason than racing mannerisms and maturity. The way State Prosecutor failed to settle in the Belmont Classic but still pushed the very smart Come Play With Me to within a length, was the sign of a very talented, but immature race horse. In another small staying event, with no definitive leader, I really think the obvious plan is to take up the running on this More Than Ready gelding. He fails to settle in behind horses (especially on farcical tempos, which we are $1.10 to see here), so why not allow him to roll along at a reasonable gallop and save his energy fighting the rider? We’ll see.

Not a race I will be betting in, but it does look a fascinating watch.

Selections

4 Red Army
2 State Prosecutor
1 At The Ready

Suggested Bet: No bet.
 

Race 4 – All Torque

Four starts ago I thought Battle Torque looked one of the better bets of the day, in a mediocre Pinjarra Thursday card. He came out, gave absolutely nothing and I thought it was time to shelve any thoughts of having any of my future not so hard earned on this Passenger gelding. From there, the rest is history with master trainer Adam Durrant again turning around a horse who appeared to be reaching that cross road in their racing careers which usually seems them racing on the Broome dirt within 3 months. Despite another big step up in class, he looks a massive hope of making it four on the bounce.

Astronomite is a horse who will appreciate the senior jockey and worn-down track. I tipped him a fortnight ago, when Brodie Kirby did everything right until the 600m mark. He extracted and then made a decision which cost me a few bucks in the swear jar, deciding to hop back in behind a tiring runner. Needless to say, he was held up for the entirety of the straight. His previous run was massive and had he drawn better, I would be calling this one of the better each way bets of the day. From the gate, I do worry he will be forced to either race in the breeze or snag back to last. Finds it difficult to win from either of those two spots.

Fontainebleau is a horse flying under the radar this preparation. Ran a sizzling final 200m first up (which is even more impressive for a mare known for her on pace work), before luckless runs second and third up behind Tellem We’re Comin. Attacked the 2200m at her most recent outing, when going down by 3 lengths to Red Army. I don’t think she is a natural stayer and the 1600-1800m is her perfect range. Should lead this on it’s ear and with a lot of recent Belmont tracks having a rail / on pace bias she will give you a good sight at around the $8 mark.

One Short is a model of consistency while Tonkatuff, Touch Of Silver and even Luke’s Gold are all going well enough to win a race like this. Happy being on the likely leader, each way at around the $8 mark.

Selections

2 Fontainebleau
6 Battle Torque
1 Astronomite

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Fontainebleau (2).
 

Race 5 – Ajit Agarkar

Not since Ajit Agarkar got 7 consecutive ducks while touring Australia in 1999-2000, have I seen something which has so many ducks in a row (worth watching some YouTube videos about this amazing feat. Good entertainment).

After a brilliant trial and a solid effort fresh, when parking four deep without cover for the majority of the journey, Mantime looks to have all the boxes ticked here. The blinkers go on, Glenn Smith goes on and he has drawn the perfect alley for this 1000m scamper, which appears to lack the normal early toe you would expect over the short course. With the scratching of League Of Nations, Smith should be able to find the outside of Dia De La Raza, or even cross that gelding and from there has to be incredibly hard to beat. He is currently around the $7.50 mark, but I would be quite surprised if he does not start favourite. Bet early.

I have a lot of time for Glimmer Girl and expect her to appreciate the services of William Pike. It is always tough winning a 1000m scamper as a sit and sprinter and that job is made even harder in a race which looks devoid of too much early speed. Patapus and Deep Cover look well placed, while it would be rude of me not to mention Imperial Venus after a Mitchell Pateman special ensured I was sufficiently hungover on Sunday a fortnight ago.

Pretty keen on Mantime at the current quote.

Selections

5 Mantime
10 Glimmer Girl
7 Patapus

Suggested Bet: 50 wins and 50 places Mantime (5).
 

Race 6 – Lucy’s Treble

To save you all time, you can skip reading the last three pages of dribble and know that Lucy Warwick will be riding the on top selection in all three. Hoping for some ‘I Love Lucy’ tweets post-race 8.

Reykjavik is one horse who would be appreciative of the abandonment last week after drawing wide. I felt he was probably the form horse of that event, but from a speed map point of view, it was hard to place him in a winning spot. The barrier draw gods were smiling on him this time around, drawing marble number two. Presuming he remembers his barrier manners, he should be forward of midfield and very hard to hold out late.

Street Fury, Bold Success and Big Caroline appear the main dangers on paper, with the latter really needing a rain effected track. One I will be keeping a close eye on is Capricorn Dancer. Last campaign this Colin Webster trained mare, went to another level and a slashing first up effort has shown she has returned in great order. This may not be her race with the tricky barrier draw, but with the removal of the dreaded bar plates and solid second up card, she is one who should be running on powerful at the business end of proceedings.

Selections

10 Reykjavik
7 Capricorn Dancer
5 Street Fury

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Reykjavik (10).
 

Race 7 – Sir Arthur

I feel I have a reasonable affiliation and understand of certain horses (Baraki Beats is not one of them) and Kensington Abbey is one of those. A grey mare, who like most of Arthur Mortimer’s runners, tends to do it the tough way, has had a luckless campaign. Three finishes out of the top ten in her four runs this campaign, doesn’t fill you with confidence, but all runs have been meritorious in their own ways. This Blackfriars mare is a real grinder and her last two victories she has sustained long, deep runs and again like most of Arthur Mortimer’s horses they are just so rock hard fit. She drops back to her pet journey of the 1400m here, encounters a field which has less depth than her most recent outings, but the most important change is the senior jockey – Lucy Warwick, going on board. She is a horse who can sit deep throughout the run and still win.

Minus Looks does look the obvious top selection on paper after narrowly going down to a Stevey Parnham special on Grey Enigma a fortnight ago. Better mapped here to sit in the first 4 and from there goes very close. I think this is a step up in class for Midnight Sky, but she is more than capable of matching this lot, while if the track does deteriorate and they are making ground out wide, don’t completely discount Our Mate Al.

A really nice race, but at around the $20 mark, I cannot go past my old favourite Kensington Abbey.

Selections

2 Kensington Abbey
7 Minus Looks
15 Our Mate Al

Suggested Bet: 30 wins and 30 places Kensington Abbey (2).
 

Race 8 – Lucy’s Best

This will be the third consecutive and fourth for the day, Lucy Warwick ride I have on top. Interesting to her jockey challenge price.

This is my best of the her four and my best of the day in Atlanta Blue. This Jason Pateman trained gelding has gone to another level this campaign and has been stiff not to have more than just the one success.

Sat off the track at his most recent run, on a day where the rail was on fire. On that day, Abdicator lead pretty comfortably and absolutely fell in. Atlanta Blue gets the 2kg weight swing, has drawn barrier 1 while Abdicator is out in barrier 14. Abdicator is currently $1.85, I cannot see how he can start a shorter price than Atlanta Blue ($5) looking at these singular race conditions. Even if Abdicator is successful and crosses to lead this race, Atlanta Blue should hold his back and be too strong late. The only worry is Lucy not finding a gap from barrier 1. I think the market is will slowly flip itself on it’s head with Abdicator likely to trade at over $3.

A lot was obviously made on the ride of Settlers Creek first up, but I am done with any form of controversial topic this week. The run was great and the $14 a place looks another quote which holds some value.

Really keen on Atlanta Blue to finish our and Lucy’s day in style.

Selections

10 Atlanta Blue
9 Settlers Creek
4 Eleven Seconds

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Atlanta Blue (10).  
+1 -1

SLIPPERGOLDEN likes this post.

Comments

  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    5,517 posts
    Troy Turner to give these every chance....

    R4 Luke's Gold each way
    R6 Capricorn Dancer a best bet.
  • pikerpiker    185 posts
    R1/ Too many here with untapped (?how much) potential ; I'm out of this one.

    R2/ Like our expert I like the Rebel horse, the jockey and the trainer.
    But the odds on Hotham Valley just too good to be true! I will tumble in there.

    R3/ I will watch this one; would love to see Pikey lob here though.

    R4/ Yes, great minds think alike: I'm all over Fontainbleu like a Welsh rarebit.
    The mercurial LS is the trainer.

    R/5 PC riding change here on DDLR and I have to follow him; PC can lean forward on a horse compared to TT!
    Of course being a cat lover I have to put in Patapus.

    R6/ This is where I start to go for left field; or is it Plan B?
    Russian River runs well fresh and I think is underrated. I like the price too!

    R7/ Again I am way out left on Bergio. I have always liked the look of him and maybe this will be his time to realise his potential. His price at 19 is surprising; thought would have been longer!

    R/8 Again looking for value, I have gone for Friaresque; the riding change to Kokotaljo is a big plus for me; he is the third in the trio of Newmañ and Autier who put to shame most of the locals on the vigour side!

    I hope I can be like Ian Glading's great horse this w/e : One Kool Cat; otherwise I'll let it all hang out.
    Good luck to all.

    SLIPPERGOLDEN likes this post.

  • pikerpiker    185 posts
    SG, I backed Capricorn Dancer at Pinjarra from memory before the spell. But I thought he didn't have wet track form. Also the trainer and Jerry Noske deserve Oscars for their interviews (CW still reminds me of Charles Laughton!).
    Lukes Gold reminds me of Juicing Carrots; always promising and then suddenly steps up to the plate when a good price after one of it's so many promising runs; so painful on last Wed!
  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    5,517 posts
    Fair comment Piker. Luke will win one and hopefully Saturday but if not the bush will provide a victory
  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    5,517 posts
    edited August 10
    I support any individual that spruikes selections on this forum whether it is one prognostication or eleven. =D>
  • pikerpiker    185 posts
    SG, you r right again. Capricorn Dancer does have wet track form.JT the rider is a big plus too.
  • pikerpiker    185 posts
    Late hunch in R/5. DDLR did paddle last start; too much money on Mantime for me (do see the logic but he was a bit of a loser!). Glimmer Girl has blinkers on and Piker on ; so I'm on.
  • bradybrady    1,225 posts
    Race 4 One Short
    Race 6 Reykjavik
    Race 7 Midnight Sky

    Good luck everyone today
  • TheDivaTheDiva    11,101 posts

    Adam Durrant has a high opinion of Kiss The Breeze and has urged punters to stick with the talented three-year-old at Belmont on Saturday.

    Kiss The Breeze won the opening two races of her career in fine style, but luck has deserted the Star Witness filly in her winter campaign.

    Durrant has strong confidence Kiss The Breeze can return to the winner’s list in the Happy Birthday Jacquie Young Plate (1400m).

    “She has been a little stiff in her last couple of runs and we’re looking for a bit more luck with her,” Durrant told Tabradio.

    “I guess that can sometime happen in racing, some days you get the luck in running and the other days you don’t.

    “But on a whole you keep persisting and the swings and roundabouts turn and it comes your way.

    “The beauty is she has come through the runs really good and I’ve had something to work with back home.

    “Although it’s her fifth run in it’s basically like she’s had a trial so far this prep.

    “I’m looking forward to see when she gets a bit of room what she can do over these trips because it looks like she is ready to swallow up ground.

    “I’m pretty confident if she gets a clear look at it she will be pretty hard to beat tomorrow (Saturday).”

    Kiss The Breeze ($2.90), to be ridden by William Pike and Rebel Knight ($2.15), are the only runners under double figure odds.

    Meanwhile Durrant believes Battle Torque has the edge over stable mate Touch Of Silver in the Iron Jack Handicap (1650m).

    Battle Torque holds $2.25 favouritism after consecutive wins at Northam, Pinjarra and Belmont.

    “He is in great form and hasn’t turned a hair since his last run,” Durrant said.

    “He will be in the mix again and you would have to lean to him for sure."

    Durrant says Touch Of Silver, unplaced in three runs this preparation, is struggling to adapt on rain affected tracks.

    “He had every possible the other day and was pretty average really,” Durrant said.

    “We went through him with a fine tooth comb and found nothing wrong with him.

    “He didn’t look like he enjoyed that soft going at all and I would be very cautious.

    “At his best he blows them away, but Battle Torque is in great form and loves the conditions.”

    Durrant will also saddle Admiral Husson, At The Ready, First Affair, Nashville Cat, Bold Success, Midnight Sky and Reveille. 

    He says Kiss The Breeze is the horse to follow.

    “I have to be on Kiss The Breeze,” Durrant said.

    “She is one of my favourites and her work has been good.

    “All the others are good chances, but it’s how they handle the conditions.”

    Julio Santarelli

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  • TheDivaTheDiva    11,101 posts
    decent push? 
  • TheDivaTheDiva    11,101 posts
    if the first time is anything to go by, this track is a bog...
    1.00.80 for the 1000m. 
    they were runningin the  59's at Pinjarra on Thursday when the rain was around... 
    :-?

    RIO likes this post.

  • RIORIO    13,740 posts
    ^^^^^
    :-O
  • paraleticparaletic    2,841 posts
    I give it to the kid, he rides hard to win. But Jordan Turner on Fontainbleu, will he get time for that? Didnt see head on so only speculating

    RIO likes this post.

  • GaryHGaryH    960 posts
    paraletic said:

    I give it to the kid, he rides hard to win. But Jordan Turner on Fontainbleu, will he get time for that? Didnt see head on so only speculating

    Was about to say the same.  Mate, go around, not through!!!  Hopefully Donga's mount is ok, but it pulled up quickly.  WA cowboys.

    RIO likes this post.

  • pikerpiker    185 posts
    No chance with JT 3 back on the fence; looked v unlucky to me..

    Then in the next  the difference with DDLR with jockey change to PC was an enormous factor in y opinion; shame I switched!
  • thefalconthefalcon    15,250 posts
    love to know what donga shouted to turner.... @-) 
    not a good look...has to get a holiday.
  • GLAMOURGLAMOUR    288 posts
    thefalcon said:

    love to know what donga shouted to turner.... @-) 
    not a good look...has to get a holiday.

    I see Jordon Turner got 14 days,takes effect from the 15th.
  • RIORIO    13,740 posts
    i actually thought it was a lot more dangerous than 14 days..Flat out down the straight in a  crowd and decide to go through a few horses!?!?!?!?

  • GaryHGaryH    960 posts
    edited August 12
    RIO said:

    i actually thought it was a lot more dangerous than 14 days..Flat out down the straight in a  crowd and decide to go through a few horses!?!?!?!?

    Come on @RIO, good competitive racing!  He had a chance of winning, and just needed an out.  "Careless" has a different meaning in WA.  'Careless' would have gotten Andrew Gaff off with two weeks.

    For those who missed it, about the 2:57 mark for the head on.
       Race 4

    RIO likes this post.

  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    5,517 posts
    edited August 12



    R4 Luke's Gold each way
    R6 Capricorn Dancer a best bet.
    Fourth Right selections but the first fours paid okay
  • hashhash    6,084 posts
    RIO said:

    i actually thought it was a lot more dangerous than 14 days..Flat out down the straight in a  crowd and decide to go through a few horses!?!?!?!?




    Certainly not defend him but don’t you think it’s give to have a jockey show a bit of ticker and want to take a gap albeit if there was one to begin with... so many of us on here bashing on about bad rides and hard luck stories etc
    Atleast JT left no stone unturned and have his mount every possible?

    Chelsea likes this post.

  • spinkingspinking    1,709 posts
    If you are a punter from a punting point of view you would be happy he tried to force a passage . If you were the owner perspective may not be the same. Ie stripped legs seen them severe enough to finish a horses racing days

    oldhendo, RIO likes this post.

  • RIORIO    13,740 posts
    Hash yes, Spinkster YES!!!!

    Certainly wont be tagging him Junior Trembles!!! hahaha

    And Gaz, yeah, probably similar examples actually!!!
  • TheDivaTheDiva    11,101 posts
    General: Stewards inquired into an incident near the 200m where ASTRONOMITE (S. O’Donnell)
    and FONTAINBLEAU (Jordan Turner) made heavy contact on repeated occasions. Evidence was
    taken from Jockey S. O’Donnell and Apprentice J. Turner accompanied by a senior rider. It was
    established that FONTAINBLEAU attempted to take a marginal run between ASTRONOMITE and
    MR PAGO where there was insufficient room causing FONTAINBLEAU to bump heavily with
    ASTRONOMITE causing the gelding’s hindquarters to be turned inwards with it becoming
    unbalanced for several strides. Apprentice Turner pleaded guilty to charge of careless riding
    under AR.137 (a) for causing this interference and his permit to ride was suspended for a period
    of 14 days to commence at midnight on Wednesday 15 August 2018 and to expire at midnight on
    Wednesday 29 August 2018. In determining penalty, Stewards took into account his guilty plea
    and recent record under this rule which showed two prior suspensions since June 2018. 
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