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Belmont Preview, 15th September

West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts
edited September 14 West Australian Racing

Race 1 - Let’s Go C…

Winx could win a fourth Cox Plate this year, but I don’t think there will be a better racing story than that of Andiamo Fica (https://bit.ly/2p7FCjC). I find this far more amusing than I should. I drew an illustration of the owner being reprimanded by the NSW stewards but unfortunately it cannot be published due to Perth Turf Talk’s strict political correctness policies.

Agent Pippa’s first up run was a lot better than it reads on paper. She went out hard and race fitness told a story late. She ran fifth of seven but was beaten under two lengths. Fire And Rain raced on her outside and finished alongside her. He won his next start. Last campaign we saw a similar thing where she ran out of legs fresh and then bolted in second up in the Group 3 Gimcrack Stakes. If she can cross from her awkward alley and find the fence, she will be in front for a long way.

Metro Boy finally ran a race befitting of the hype, though I think the clerk of the course’s horse would have probably won that event by 3 or 4. Magic Planet is one I am willing to take on, while I think we will see Pablo’s Poem ridden with a sit. Loved the way he hit the line in a recent trial when ridden cold.

Friday Fillies is a really interesting runner after being backed from 9s to 4s on debut and never being given a hope from an awkward draw. Recent trial was soft and I suspect we may see some money come again from a stable who can’t do much wrong.

Selections

2 Agent Pippa
4 Pablo’s Poem
3 Metro Boy

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Agent Pippa (2).

 

Race 2 - Viva Italia

I’m not overly well versed with the Italian dialect so just googled ‘Seconda Vita’ in the hope of finding some entertaining translation. Unfortunately I was left very disappointed. We’ll keep searching.

Seconda Vita has been strong all campaign and looks your winner here. The worry is the small stable with Robyn Cottman’s last winner coming back in May 2015 with the brilliantly named Ahning Adingding. Fun fact, her only two winners in the last 4 years came in consecutive races that day and both were at cricket score odds. Fairly confident Robyn will be singing after this race.

Her most recent effort was her best, when reeling off a huge final 400m split to run second to the smart Free Mover. Beating home Wakan Tanka in the process is a very strong form line for a race without any real depth. If Julien Kokotajlo can get some clear galloping room from barrier 1, she should be running over the top of them late.

Prince O’Lara looks the main danger. First up last campaign raced in top three year old company when under three lengths off the likes of Epic Grey, Saturia, Lady Le Jean & Mizlecki. Second up he dropped to provincial maiden class and was only just knocked off by the very smart Mississippi Delta. His recent trial was soft and he looks a major player here.

I just can’t have the rest. At $3.80 Seconda Vita & $7 Prince O’Lara, it is a race I am happy suggesting a double play for a $2.50 type result.

Selections

7 Seconda Vita
2 Prince O’Lara
3 Ouqba Ted

Suggested Bet: 70 wins Seconda Vita (7). 30 wins Prince O’Lara (2).

 

Race 3 - Make America Great Again

The horse which Donald Trump named his campaign slogan after, looks well placed to make it five wins on the bounce. The in form Mitchell Pateman takes the ride en route to the Hannan’s Handicap and from barrier 1, should sit right in behind a reasonably steady tempo. This is his first go at the 1400m, but having run placings over the 1500m and 1800m when he was a less mature horse, suggests this distance will be right in his wheelhouse.

Nelson’s Flight is the horse I desperately wanted to tip on top after his first up victory. Best known for his ability to roll along out in front, this son of Blackfriars was knocked over at the 200m mark, before picking up, finding a gap and recording an extremely impressive victory. He was racing on the right part of a very rail bias track, but the win was still full of merit. This speed map looks ugly for him here, otherwise I would have had him on top. Great Again has gone up 15 rating points this campaign (7.5kg’s), a tipping point will be reached soon.

Get Over It will appreciate the senior jockey going on.

Will stay out of this one as a betting proposition with the $2.40 Great Again v $4.50 Nelson’s Flight looking like a very accurate reflection of both gallopers chances.

Selections

2 Great Again
9 Nelson’s Flight
3 Get Over It

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 4 - Team Riding

I want to crack a few funnies about team riding being the only way Man Booker gets beaten here, but unfortunately we live in a world that if you refer to a female Doctor as ‘Miss’ then it is an extreme case of sexism. From what I can understand the punishment for such an offence is a public beheading. So, once again I will stick to the Perth Turf Talk political correctness policy and stay silent.

$1.40 looks right on the minimum price you’d want to be taking for a horse who meets most of his rivals 5.5kg’s worse off at the weights. Was huge first up when making ground on a rail bias day and from barrier 2 should stalk likely leaders Dream Lifter and The Celt. Yeah Dardy presents as the main danger with the ‘unknown factor’ on the minimum. Won the New Season Sprint and then ran second in the Newmarket with form lines around Rebel King and Profit Street. Man Booker comes out of similar form lines, albeit in different circumstances. Will be interesting if Shaun O’Donnell can find Man Booker’s back from barrier 5 and stalk him into this. The 5.5kg’s could be telling late.

The Celt will run an improved race on speed. His last effort at WFA coming from last was really encouraging.

Selections

1 Man Booker
7 Yeah Dardy
6 The Celt

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 5 - Captain James Cook

Not since 1770 when Captain James Cook mapped the East Coast of Australia, has there been a more brilliant display of cartography. Until now.

Pretentious Chant is a mapped moral here. Sharpbob has not lead at his last two starts (once ridden cold, the other time opting to hand up) and it has been evident he is not the same horse when not rolling along in front. Drawing underneath all the other speed, should see Lucas Camilleri ride like his life depends on it early to hold the rail. This should leave Undisclosed on his outside and Dia De La Raza out in the three wide line. Lockroy and I Am Incredible should be pushing up from barriers 1 and 2 to ensure there is a ‘no vacancies’ sign just in behind the speed. This type of pressure should leave the on-pace brigade calling Ubers over the final 150m.

Pretentious Chant has ran the quickest last 600m splits of the ENTIRE race card at his last two outings. This becomes even more impressive when you consider the fact he was held up for the last 200m of his most recent outing, climbing all over the back of them. Two starts back he also clocked the quickest last 200m and 400m splits of the day when coming down the centre of a track which was like quick sand. I always have concerns with an off speed horse over a sprint journey, but if he holds that form and Whiting can give him a cuddled up run til 250m to go, he will run over the top of these.

How To Fly is mapped to improve out of sight while the $12 Saturia looks a nice price for a horse who has been racing without luck midweek.

For those who couldn’t tell, I’m relatively keen on Pretentious Chant. Happy with the $8, but is a slightly unfashionable galloper so his ‘peak price’ is hard to predict.

Selections

3 Pretentious Chant
8 Saturia
7 How To Fly

Suggested Bet: 50 wins and 50 places Pretentious Chant (3).

 

Race 6 - Brett Peaking

Reveille should be absolutely cherry ripe third up for a peak performance. Was caught on the wrong part of a heavily rain affected track second up, when still running a nice closing sectional to just miss the tough Peppijack. Back on top of the ground here, up to 1600m, Pike sticks and he’s drawn to sit midfield - he looks your winner.

Dark Prospect is the only danger and a very worthy adversary. His trial and two runs this campaign have been huge. Drawn well and at $6 you could do a lot worse than have an each way ticket on him.

One of the two will win, but a clear lean toward Reveille.

Selections

5 Reveille
6 Dark Prospect
11 Kelly’s Secret

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Reveille (5).

 

Race 7 - High Five

With the same core group of ‘middle of the road’ stayers continuing to do battle week after week, I’m happy putting a horse on the rise; Five Degrees, on top. I tend to want to see a horse have a run or two over the 2000m+ before becoming interested, but that rule gets thrown out the window for the Mc Auliffe yard who have a tremendous record of success when their horses step up sharply in trip.

Five Degrees won well first up (5s to 10s) when leading throughout on a day which did suit horses out in front. Second up he stepped up in grade and sat deep without cover on a rail bias track. Put a line through that run.

Steps up to the 2000m here where he has a phenomenal record. The run I want to focus on was a victory in a Class One at Bunbury in February this year. He was forced to make a sustained run from the 650m mark when quite comfortably defeating Mississippi Delta. That Bob Peters owned galloper went on to win her next 3 starts in devastating fashion, including a last to first Saturday victory over At The Ready. There has been Perth Cup talk.

The third horse from that race was Play’s The Game. After winning at his next outing, he ran fourth in a Bunbury Cup before lifting the $120,000 Pinjarra Cup. You will not see a better form line coming out of a Bunbury Class One.

He has a reasonable amount of early speed, so I suspect we will see him hold the back of likely leader Sense Of Power who is taking on a staying journey for the first time. Bergio looks well placed on the minimum here after hitting the line nicely at his last three, with the Wizard taking the mount. The rest of them are all fairly well known quantities.

Five Degrees is not a horse who has come in for a huge amount of support (even when victorious) throughout his career, but the $21 on offer looks a really nice each way price for the potential X factor in this race.

Selections

7 Five Degrees
6 Bergio
3 Juicing Carrots

Suggested Bet: 40 wins and 40 placings Five Degrees (7).

 

Race 8 - Lottery

If I’m having a tough day after race seven, I will be taking my bat and ball and going home. This race has more question marks over it than the next Australian Test XI.

Mantime is on the 4 day back-up. Will it be able to handle such a short turn around? Yindi is coming off a 49 day break, how fit and ready to go is it? Route Eighty Eight and Lady Le Jean are both very talented gallopers coming off shocking runs. Was there an issue that has been rectified?

The safest play here looks to be Mantime with Tayla Stone simply jumping and running them along here. The Electric Light form is strong and his midweek victory was soft. Will likely have a big head start on the other fancies.

Pinball Wizard is an interesting runner. Was asked for very little in a recent trial and his record last campaign was super with the highlight being a two and a half length victory over Great Again. Has had a reasonably long break, so may be one to look for later in his campaign.

A tough finish to a good days racing.

Selections

2 Mantime
4 Yindi
1 Pinball Wizard

Suggested Bet: No bet.
+1 -1

rooboy, Rodent likes this post.

Comments

  • hashhash    6,108 posts
    edited September 14
    5’s out to 10..... :)) I saw as much as $12 :-\"
    Not that I’d ever back the horse, too inconsistent to be a punting proposition
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    2,041 posts
    Fairly open race the 7th, becomes a rematch for at least 6 or more runners.I reckon Young Thor can figure at $10+

    hash, udontknow likes this post.

  • hashhash    6,108 posts
    edited September 14
    In saying that, Midnight banquet has got within 2L of Gold artisan, jazari, juicing carrots and co. yet is paying 3 times the price
  • pikerpiker    203 posts
    Well; here is The Other Belmont Preview.

    R/1 7 horses but lots of chances in this 3YO.
    I crossed out the Pippa girl becos of poor run first up and a query about her 2yo form for me.
    The I ruled out the top weight, similarly doubting the 2YO form.
    I liked Metro Boy's win even though midweek; top trainer and the horse is a real good looking type.
    Pablo's loooked erratic last time and I now doubt the Flirtini form.
    Fridays Fillies was so unlucky in her only other run; the winner of that race did win again.
    So I am bracketing 3 and 6.
    Oh and Ooga Chaka was a really nice trial recently so I have had a place go here at long odds ( reminds me of Running Bear; also the trainer is the Silver Fox and a nominee for the Aussie version of Robert Mitchum).

    R/2 I will be watching this one but will be interested at the flucts on Leñnon's Song due it's illustrious stable.

    R3/ Here is where I give up on the fave,guessing he cannot run out a strong 1400 at this time of his career.
    I am bracketing 3 and 8.
    Getoverit is the logical winner with the riding change and the blinkers on.
    But General Husson was so unlucky last time and the trsiner is the best conditioner of horses through long campaigns.
    I gave up on Settlers Creek; what a gunna! But you must look at his prize money score!

    R/4 Yes; I wanted 1.5 but I had to take 1.35 in all ups with MB. If he is right he will win.

    R/5 I left out Khan becos of the barrier.
    So I put in the Incredible Horse becos of b1 and gussing he may not have trained off and he had a bee sting last time or just had too much water pre race!
    My main guess though is How to Fly; she is by Written Tycoon and seemed to resent the horse on her outside last time; actually thought it was a v good run and hoping for sig improvement tomorrow.

    R/6 my main 2 here are 6 and 11.
    I have never been that keen on Dark Prospect becos he looked a bit gangly to me; but seems to have matured sig this time in.
    Kellys Secret to me was an amazing win to get through first last time; v short price was noted.
    Patrocity maiden form is good.
    The fave stablemate I would think has had issues with of her previous stable chang so I am risking her.
    I will put in Perceptive Miss now that she is reaching better form and Freedom by Choice is not hopeless either.

    R/7 The top weight looks the winner; up and comer , great conditioning stable and in form front running jockey.
    Juicing Carrots has to go in; looks its best distance.
    But then there is my previous tip Bergio with WP now on; so has to go in.

    R/8 I have to leave out Mantime becos of the sectionals last time
    I am hoping either Yindi or Supreme Force can catch him.

    I will stick to WA after last week; the Freedman Co have never done me a good turn; but I still wonder why T Clark went down there last week for Shoals!
    D Weir stable is just so so strong at present; must see if I can watch The Answer My Friend race!

    All the best for another v interesting Sat. I will keep blocking my attic ceiling for heat and sound blocking; like they do in Europe and USA; great results so far. The way my joints are, I am breathing in the treated pine fumes on using the drop saw;will add in lime juice; no gin!


  • udontknowudontknow    415 posts

    Fairly open race the 7th, becomes a rematch for at least 6 or more runners.I reckon Young Thor can figure at $10+




    Yep
  • paraleticparaletic    2,876 posts
    How to fly drinks alot of milk
  • TheSwooperTheSwooper    1,454 posts
    Gees Pretentious Chant and Mr Whiting. Not a good mix for mine.
  • hashhash    6,108 posts

    Gees Pretentious Chant and Mr Whiting. Not a good mix for mine.

    LATE Drift told the story there swoop
  • JellJell    806 posts
    Laurensen fresh is always a worthy EW in the last. Always races well first up and coming off the back of two nice trials. He should be able to box seat from barrier 2.

    udontknow likes this post.

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    2,041 posts
    paraletic said:

    How to fly drinks alot of milk




    Dont hog it all, Khan wants a drink too :D

    paraletic likes this post.

  • TheSwooperTheSwooper    1,454 posts
    You reckon the money made up its mind that with Whiting on,  it  had 'buckleys', or just that it is too hard to make ground out wide and so, it had buckley's anyway whether Whiting was on or not.

    I need to watch again but as soon as he went to the inside, I knew it was &*(%&)?

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    6,573 posts
    My roughie is Detente on the last
  • TheSwooperTheSwooper    1,454 posts
    Some good tipping on here. Gold Artisan was as interested in going around as Whiting I reckon.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    2,041 posts
    Pity Koko couldnt get a cart into the straight on the back of an actual stayer ffs :-q

    udontknow likes this post.

  • rooboyrooboy    1,276 posts
    How good is our man!
    Five Degrees!
    Boommmmm!

    Rodent, Chris likes this post.

  • RodentRodent    4,580 posts

     Selections

    7 Five Degrees
    6 Bergio
    3 Juicing Carrots

    Suggested Bet: 40 wins and 40 placings Five Degrees (7).     

    Trifecta paid $708.40!

    rooboy likes this post.

  • rooboyrooboy    1,276 posts
    1st 4 paid alright too Rodent! \:D/ \:D/ <:-P <:-P
  • hashhash    6,108 posts
    while we're on the subject of boasting... 26/1 on Thursday with no deductions was good enough for me  :x

    well done to everyone that managed a decent wedge out of her win yesterday, the power of PTT 
    :-?

    rooboy likes this post.

  • paraleticparaletic    2,876 posts
    As soon as i saw it drew the 1 i knew i was having a little bit on and at over $20 i thought the market was hell wrong

    hash likes this post.

  • hash said:

    5’s out to 10..... :)) I saw as much as $12 :-\"
    Not that I’d ever back the horse, too inconsistent to be a punting proposition

    "while we're on the subject of boasting... 26/1 on Thursday with no deductions was good enough for me"

  • hashhash    6,108 posts
    guess there's a first time for everything hey  <:-P
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