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Bunbury Preview, 12th October

West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    3,054 posts
edited October 2018 West Australian Racing

Race 1 - Funbury

Feature racing makes its way to the South West with arguably the best Saturday race card we’ve seen in months. There is a real ‘start of the carnival’ feel about it and I am making Big Kev look unexcited. Unfortunately, the unseen curator up top intends on throwing a spanner in the works with a reasonable storm forecast to hit Bunbury in the morning. We do need to remember that the weatherman rolls at around a 12% accuracy rate, so we should be right.

There is a standout in the opening event of the day, but being a first starter from an awkward barrier draw it doesn’t appeal as an early ‘chips in’ investment. Bel My Pago has still looked pretty raw in two ultra impressive barrier trials and doesn’t meet a maiden field which looks to have the next Railway Stakes winner engaged. I would suspect we’ll see a patient ride from Perth’s #2 hoop in Mitchell Pateman as trainers rush to secure his services for some key rides over the carnival.

Together We Dream looks well placed here. Dropping out of a couple of class one’s back to a maiden, this Discorsi mare should settle just in behind the speed and have every chance in running. Palladio and Vagabond Boy look next best.

Selections

14 Bel My Pago
12 Together We Dream
5 Palladio

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Bel My Pago (14).

 

Race 2 - The Price Is Right

A difficult race to assess with many of these gallopers racing at unsuitable trips. The key to this event is who will be able to handle the pace set by Beaucount and still have the sprint and endurance left late to haul that gelding in.

Oddly, Randy Tan does not retain the mount on Beaucount and you can only assume he was sacked in favour of stable regular Ryan Hill. There is not a huge amount of alternate speed in this race. I am a big fan of Arthur Mortimer, but the decision to drop Abeldane to a mile is very confusing. It can’t go with them early and is a genuine one pacer who needs every inch of 2000+.

Salon Du Cheval is the horse who potentially has the most upside and we have seen some tough efforts from this son of Trade Fair in his short career to date. Being able to do this fresh, in a smart field chasing a tearaway leader will require some type of training effort from Lindsey Smith, but he is far from an impossibility.

Very happy putting Arctic Stream on top and as one of my better bets on the card. Raced without cover last time out when pushing tearaway leader Lofty Lad right to the line. The blinkers go on here, he is drawn well and should find cover just off the speed. Back to his home track where he is undefeated from 2 starts, I think he can end Ross Price’s lengthy metro winning drought.

Kia Ora Star will appreciate the drop in weight, distance and return to Bunbury, while Bollinger Boy is flying, but does tend to get a long way back in his races.

With some money around for Beaucount, Salon Du Cheval & Bollinger Boy, I suspect we will see better than the $3.30 on offer for Arctic Stream on the day. Bet late.

Selections

2 Arctic Stream
3 Beaucount
1 Salon Du Cheval

Suggested Bet: 80 wins Arctic Stream (2).

 

Race 3 - Pike’s Bey

Suspect it’ll unusually take three races for William to ride his first winner, with Queen Bey having her hoof firmly planted on the till. On a day where making slashing runs was not commonplace, we saw her come from dead last at the 400m to miss a very brave Kirov Boy by a whisker. Should be rock hard fit here and I suspect if the Bunbury track plays fair, she will appreciate it more so than a worn down Belmont.

While he is nowhere near them in the market, I think the biggest danger will come from the bipolar Master Magician. If there is one horse you simply do not bother doing the form on, it is this bloke. His last six starts have resulted in 2 wins, 1 second last and 3 dead last’s. He’ll decide if he wants to be there. He clearly goes best for Mitch Pateman and that jockey appointment is the key to his chances here. Will go forward with Verdello Blue and eventually Kirov Boy and if on song it’ll be awfully hard for Queen Bey to make up the required ground. IF being the key word.

Happy taking on Noir De Rue at his first go at the journey from barrier 10, with a big watch on Honorfic who is a clear third elect. While I do love Kirov Boy, I think he’s had his turn.

We’ll have our main bet on Queen Bey ($3.30) with a save on Master Magician ($21), who will probably end up a better result.

Selections

7 Queen Bey
3 Master Magician
6 Honorfic

Suggested Bet: 80 wins Queen Bey (7). 20 wins Master Magician (3).

 

Race 4 - Top End Talent

Rare we see this much top end talent on show in a one metro win handicap, but the battle between Royal Command and Special Reward is an intriguing one.

Special Reward sizzled in a recent trial and you’d suspect this Simon Miller trained gelding would have been lining up in the feature race later in the day had he not already had Valour Road and Lady Cosmology entered. He isn’t mapped to have the easiest run in transit with speed horses Lord Sherwood, Kimbo’s Girl, Scandal Maker and Krypto Kid all drawn underneath him. Krypto Kid is the quickest of that lot, but with the early announcement that he will be ridden with cover, I’d suspect Special Reward should be able to cross and find the outside of the leader at worse. From there it’ll be awfully difficult for Royal Command to make up the required ground.

Multiverse is absolutely flying, while another intriguing unknown in this race is the return of Snow Blossom. Ran some huge races at Bunbury two campaigns ago, before not coming to the party at all last time in. Returns to his home track and if they do overcook it out in front, he is more than capable of some big closing sectionals.

Selections

8 Special Reward
2 Royal Command
1 Multiverse

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 5 - Start Your Engines

Small but select bunch of three year olds do battle in this intriguing sprint. The smaller the field, the easier the speed map in theory but this is a tough one to get right. Agent Pippa holds the key to how the race will be run and it has looked to me that connections have opted to ride her a little bit more circumspect to date this campaign. While I don’t know if this is the best tactic for a filly who has the ability to break their hearts, it probably allows Valour Road to slide across and find the rail with Lady Cosmology on his back and Black Sabbath looking to hop onto Valour Road’s outside and come across with it.

Black Sabbath looks a standout selection here, but the speed map is so tricky. If Agent Pippa (or even Chix Pic) opt to kick up, it probably means Valour Road sits on the outside of the speed with Black Sabbath three deep. McGruddy may even decide to snag this son of Blackfriars straight to last out of the gates. A really intriguing battle of tactics and for McGruddy it is very difficult to have a plan B over the 1000m.

While all this is happening, the one horse you can place with near certainty in the map is the William Pike ridden Lady Cosmology. You know exactly where she will be in the run and Pike will have her ready to utilise her 3kg weight swing on Valour Road from a narrow Karrakatta defeat.

While Black Sabbath does not come out of the black type two year old events, his three length debut victory over Market Ruler read’s incredibly well. Market Ruler came out to win his next three starts in dominant fashion. Happy having him on top, though I will not be disappointed to be knocked off by Rod Kemp’s Lady Cosmology.

Selections

3 Black Sabbath
6 Lady Cosmology
1 Valour Road

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 6 - Stage Is Set

A tricky barrier draw is all that stands between Stageman and a first up victory en route to some black type events. A recent trial alongside Great Shot showed this son of Written Tycoon is in terrific order and I feel the 1100m rather than the 1000m of this race will be right in his favour. He will be 5+ lengths off them on straightening, but if they are making ground I have no doubt he will go straight past this lot.

Salorsci put in a cracker first up and looks the logically danger if jumping cleanly and racing on speed. Known as a jump and run horse, his effort to sit near last and make good ground fresh suggests he may be in for a big campaign.

How To Fly is a horse on the rise but after a pearler from William Pike last week, I’d prepare yourself to look away here team Electra…

Happy taking anything over even money for Stageman.

Selections

10 Stageman
2 Salorsci
8 Blackline

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Stageman ($10).

 

Race 7 - The Big Fella

Looking to take on Royal Star first up here. While she is clearly a talented mare, I do feel her price and reputation are always a little bit ‘potential bias’, rather than a realistic reflection of where she is at. Carries 59.5kgs here and that weight comes off the back of a victory in a weak 2200m three year old staying event (8 points) and a second to Properantes in a group 3 (5 points). I think she will be a better horse over a journey and the 59.5kgs she is lumped with here is more than huge leveller for a mare coming off a couple of mediocre trials.

Missile Launch and Great Again look the two who are best suited and I am finding it awfully hard to split the pair. Missile Launch’s recent trial was brilliant with the horse jumping and travelling a dream; an aspect of his racing which has been absent in past campaigns. If this big hulking son of Smart Missile has mentally got it right, he can be a major player in the Railway Stakes.

Great Again just seems to lift to the occasion and will benefit from a race which looks devoid of natural top end speed. Unless either The Celt or Achernar Star have strong desires to run them along here, you would suspect he will find the rail and be in front for a long way. Race fitness in a horse which is awfully hard to get past, tends to be a winning combination.

I was taken by Missile Launch’s trial and will lean that way however. A watch on Action who will be a long way back the fence before running the quickest last 200m. A Perth Cup horse.

Selections

10 Missile Launch
8 Great Again
3 Prize Catch

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 8 - Mollie

With absolutely no disrespect to Mollie Clark, Regal Moon would be $1.50 if William Pike was on board. That’s what makes the final event, while lacking the class of the previous contests, such an interesting betting medium.

This is a mare who is absolutely flying for new trainer Steele Casey. Was a moral beaten at her first run this campaign behind Multiverse (who subsequently won a Saturday class race) before Mollie removed all doubt from the equation, parked her wide (on a track which was clearly rail bias) and she was still too good for her opposition. The step up to 1400m looks a query on the surface, but she looks a more complete horse under Steele Casey and with the extra ground she covered last start, this looks the perfect assignment for her.

Now the question comes down to - what is a good price? The $4 currently on offer to me is enough. You are asking Mollie to find a spot in the three wide line and just get wide on straightening. $4 looks a price which is worth having something on and crossing your fingers she can deliver.

Ouqba Jack represents the value in this race. His first up effort will look disappointing on the surface, but he got caught behind the wrong horse on straightening and never tracked into the race smoothly. I liked his final 100m and he showed us last campaign when he finds form, he tends to hold it. I think he may well be a horse on the rise, in a race with a lot of ‘middle of the road’ types.

Happy having something on Regal Moon at $4 and Ouqba Jack at $18.

Selections

5 Regal Moon
6 Ouqba Jack
10 Sigil

Suggested Bet: 70 wins Regal Moon (5). 30 wins Ouqba Jack (6).
+1 -1

rooboy likes this post.

Comments

  • lowza24lowza24    10 posts

    Great Preview for the best card I have seen for awhile.

    A big +1 for the watch on Snow Blossom!

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited October 2018
    This horse can be a little hard to follow sometimes - a bit like us punters - in and out of form - he's nine years old too.
    Very curious to see how he goes tomorrow because last start win he was basically three wide going out of the straight the first time around sustaining one of the longest runs have seen - the commentator said as they entered the home straight words to the effect of "Kirov Boy is beginning to paddle"...but no he kept on trucking and won in a remarkable effort at over double figure odds.

    Now if that had have been a young up and coming horse doing that he'd be 5/4 tomorrow...never quite sure with Kirov but if he gets rocking and rolling perhaps a hope again.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,235 posts
    Stageman the absolute best at Bunbury at $2.25

    Big roughie in the last for quaddies is Barzinho at $34
  • pikerpiker    404 posts
    Here is The Other Belmont Preview.

    But I cannot hold a candle to my 'bro' above.
    What a great summary!

    Well I do not know Bunbury v well; but they seem to win from anywhere, upfront or from back.

    I am hoping the rain does not materialize. A woman I work with suddenly said the other day 'It's gonna rain til Xmas'; resulting in much spontaneous laughter from me. Then I said 'Isn't there a song called that?'

    R/1 It will be v interesting If the Mercurial one salutes with a v heavily backed fave.
    I will be barracking for the Harveys with Vagabond Boy but just watching.

    R/2 Here is a tough one. I have such fond memories of backing many Ross Price winners in the past. But the in form trainer and jock WP have Bollinger Boy here.

    R/3 Gee it was painful when Queen Bey just missed last time as did my quaddie. Honorfic is on the way up but I'm just gonna watch this one. Oh and how does Kirov Boy keep receiving such generous weighting (someone on radio said he would make a great hurdler before he beat QB!).

    R/4 I really like Royal Command here; ultra consistant and a mature 5YO (I still cannot understand how Veuve de Vega beat him last prep).
    The other fave is only 3 so I discounted him.

    R/5 I am going against the tide here; Valour Road. I just think he is the best sprinter over the short course. I did like his trial.
    Lady Cosmo has always been a fave of mine but I thought she should have beaten the Lord horse last time even with the bit of bad luck; she did have plenty of time to run him down.
    I really like the Harveys as trainers but I just think Black Sabbath is unproven as a short course sprinter and in the best 3YO company here.

    R/6 I am coupling Stageman (how was he beaten last start?) and Salorsci; the 2 best riders in WA here. I think the latter is the logical winner becos of the barrier draws.
    But it wouldnt surprise me to the Durrant mare knock me off!

    R/7 I always think Royal Star will just do something v amazing one day so I continue to follow her.
    Gee Missile Launch was impressive in his trial but he strikes me as a big big horse who needs to be close to them in this shorter race for him.
    I might as well be consistent and leave out Great Again once more!

    R/8 Well I come back from having a tickle on Ouqba Jack and there you go 'Great Minds'
    I took the 19's. Some of his runs as a 3yo were v impressive and the stable and jockey and back in the winner's circle. Otherwise it is v open with of course the Distant Trilogy horse I think on his home track.

    Well I'm hoping the pink and white Peters colours are v prominent tomorrow with the Wiz at his best. Let's hope we can all barrack home at least one winner. Good Luck.

    jum likes this post.

  • ChrisChris    5,218 posts
    Great Again to just keep on winning
  • pikerpiker    404 posts
    GA easing but a v good price about a good horse.

    Special Reward into 1.85 over here and Royal Command easing (i'm on him).

    Valour Road easing over here to 5.0 (I'm on him).

    There is money for Salorsci 4.4.
  • pikerpiker    404 posts
    Oh and I forgot to say there was a bit of a push for Pretentious Chant with P Hall on in R/6 by the boys on the radio.
    PH is so underrated and underutilized.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,235 posts
    Bunbury tips
    1/5
    2/3
    3/6
    4/1
    5/3
    6/10****
    7/8
    8/3
  • troopertrooper    681 posts
    What a pathetic ride by Pateman there.

    Thunderstruck likes this post.

  • jumjum    3,512 posts
    Perth Cup Winner right there. :-$
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,676 posts
    edited October 2018
    Not the same pilot obviously but just watched Murder in the 2nd race too!! horse #6 wide the trip just got nutted late as he tired :(

    Ngawyni likes this post.

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,676 posts
    R3..cut and paste R2
  • squid69squid69    1,434 posts
    Have got Pateman / Mcgruddy Jocks Challenge quinella @$101. Mcgruddy 8 leads Pateman 6. Smoking Joe on 5 with no ride, Kirby on 4 and stacks of jocks on 3. No ride for McGruddy in the last, Pateman on Rare Coin which is a roughie. Everything crossed.
  • squid69squid69    1,434 posts
    I don’t like Brodie Kirby....
  • troopertrooper    681 posts
    My god Mollie Clark. How does she get rides. She's getting worse
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,676 posts
    BK..you are forgiven :x

    Tigers2014 likes this post.

  • ChrisChris    5,218 posts
    Blood bath
  • Tigers2014Tigers2014    66 posts
    #miracleman take my money !!!

    Thunderstruck, Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

  • troopertrooper    681 posts

    #miracleman take my money !!!




    Good horse if he could get it over the line.
    Ruins most else these days
  • Tigers2014Tigers2014    66 posts


    Good horse if he could get it over the line.
    Ruins most else these days
    What are you talking about ?


  • Tigers2014Tigers2014    66 posts
    trooper said:

    #miracleman take my money !!!

    What are you talking about ?




    Good horse if he could get it over the line.
    Ruins most else these days

  • psychopsycho    652 posts
    Who was at the track ? Toilets not working for the men, and the sound system pretty much non existent. Not a good show at the first meeting of the year
  • TheSwooperTheSwooper    1,717 posts
    Dunno, I was in the punting tent (which was a great initiative) so didn't get out and about much. Crowd looked pretty decent. Racing was good and track played pretty fair.
  • psychopsycho    652 posts

    Dunno, I was in the punting tent (which was a great initiative) so didn't get out and about much. Crowd looked pretty decent. Racing was good and track played pretty fair.

    Agree with crowd and track, but the facilities should have been spot on and not being able to hear the races in the bar area is just not thinking, when it was clearly audible outside the bar area but no TVs out there  :((
  • hashhash    7,495 posts

    Dunno, I was in the punting tent (which was a great initiative) so didn't get out and about much. Crowd looked pretty decent. Racing was good and track played pretty fair.

    what was the washup Swoop? any idea of the guys that won it and how did your table go

    surely the home track advantage put you in good stead 
    :D
  • JellJell    1,201 posts
    I know Fastmoney doesn’t post here anymore but I’m sure he’s still lurking.

    Congrats on Multiverse winning 4 in a row =D>
  • TheSwooperTheSwooper    1,717 posts
    We tried hard Hash. Made all our selections before we headed on track and did a draw. If your selection returned more than invested, bet again, and so on.... Six bets of $100 per race (we split into 2 x 50 bets so everyone had a bit of a say) and one $100 on your Best Bet.

    Started poorly but managed to be in front prior to the last. Two tables backed Achernar Star and gave us the flick. Ended up 3rd. The good thing was that you kept your winnings.
    Table cost $1250 - Got back a $1000 for coming 3rd plus what we won on the punt.
    Mind you, only one member of our table did any good. $50W Multiverse, $50W Chix Pic and $25EW Pretentious Chant (a bit unlucky) Tine was certainly the hero of our table.

    The day cost us nothing and it was a lot of fun.

    The winning table was made up of a group of young blokes. They struck in most races from memory. The second group did well. Big Caroline and Achernar Star. One table was a bit stiff as I think they were tossing up whether to have all the money on Big Caroline but ended up with more places then wins.


    jum likes this post.

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