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Moonee Valley Cup/Cox Plate Day.

East Coast Racing
Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
edited October 2018 East Coast Racing
The caravan rolls on to Moonee Valley for the two big ones. The Cup is a real raffle...nothing will surprise.
Going to keep it simple and spend $100 on the Cox Plate in Exactas with Winx to win and trying to get a bit of value by leaving the second favourite out of it. Need a bit of luck here but if Benbatl doesn't run second these are the three for me.

Winx - Humidor 50 times.
Winx - Avilius 30 times.
Winx - D'Argento 20 times.

Great days racing Waterford Crystal Mile always a terrific race...the AAMI Vase too. Which are now called the Schweppes Crystal Mile and Drummond Golf Vase!
+1 -1

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Comments

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,676 posts
    Does Benbatl lead? And if yes who will keep him honest breezing?
    Not Winx, Humidor or D'argento.Avilius is likely to be 3 back the fence at least and KWD will try for 3rd the fence on Benbatl's back if he jumps properly?
    That leaves Rostropovich who also may not be keen(he is out of his grade imo)or Savvy Coup to carry the baton.Hard to forecast confidently really and its not impossible KWD breezes i spose.
  • TheSwooperTheSwooper    1,717 posts
    Be surprised if Savvy Coup would be outside leader. Her last two runs have been very good. Has a nice turn of foot and would be my quinella selection with Winx. A huge rise in class however.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,676 posts
    Yeh i doubt it too feel free to throw up your theory Swoop :D
    Almost a lottery who runs 2nd..breeze horse wont nor will Rostro..all the rest can be in the mix just depends on who gets the best cheap run or cart up behind Winx who will do most of the work.
    Benbatl might be very dangerous if he gets not too tough a time in front...
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited October 2018
    The other exacta that might be a bit of value is..dare to say it....Benbatl first Winx second. Better take that 15 times. If Benbatl did happen to cause the boilover there will only be one horse running second and that's Winx...if you fancy Benbatl to win your probably better off ( at the odds ) taking Benbatl to beat Winx in exacta, trifecta or first four.

    Be mighty surprised if Rostropovich or Savvy Coup run second...they will need to run out of their skin. It is tricky for second though.
    The one more worried about is Kings Will Dream...he had no luck in the Caulfield Cup. Was tossing up between him and D'Argento..went with the Waller runner ahead of Weir just.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited October 2018
    The Moonee Valley Cup is a 15 horse field and the only two runners don't think can win are the first and second favourites!
    Going to take on The Taj Mahal and Trap For Fools.

    Taj was massive run in the CC but after taking off early and sprinting hard was pretty tired on the line. Seven day back up and wide barrier - he will need to be exceptional to win it.
    If he does that's an enormous effort.
  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    Had a look at the fields last night and you can basically just tune in for the last two races. The Cox Plate & The Vase. Aramayo(a horror gate in 14) & Verry Elleegant(horribly named/spelt) look the main two. Honestly I don't think it matters if Aramayo gets rolled, I'd sooner back it in the Derby than Thinkin' Big if Gai's horse tries to lead for 2500m

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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    Avilius: pipe opener for the Melbourne Cup or a fair dinkum attempt to win it ?
    His best chance of running second ( and an easier run as possible into the Cup ) is to be ridden quietly out the back.
    Let the pressure unfold and run home late, after Winx has dashed for home!

    Anybody give Benbatl the slightest chance of causing the upset ?
    It would be one of the rare occasions where the second favourite winning could be considered a boilover.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    D.K. Weir had 21 runners go around at Geelong for no wins.
    Has 17 in at this stage for Saturday. The big race days are not easy even with the numbers.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,676 posts
    Hard enough punting at the Valley at the best of times but yes the Cup r8 looks diabolically hard..maybe a little spec on Sully at 20's if he gets a run.

    Vase looks a very good race if VE replicates her super Caulfield run we could have another odds on Oaks fav.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,676 posts
    @ riders i reckon Avilius in it for a solid hitout, win would be a huge bonus but they will of course try without flogging him for the Cup.Depending on the run he gets has a decent turn of foot so could run on really well and be trying to get onto Winx's back(or Humidor)with another couple trying the same thing.
    I've tried at times to have skinny trifectas with Winx as the anchor but usually something roughish runs second and stuffs me..most recently it was Youngstar had her for 3rd not 2nd.Exacta ticky also went tits up that day...
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited October 2018
    He might get burnt off his feet early Avilius and just hoping either he or Humidor can run on late after Winx has ( hopefully) disposed of Benbatl. Look for 'D'Argento or Kings Will Dream as possible bolters for 2nd or 3rd.
    For Waller to Quinella it....that would be amazing.

    Moonee Valley Cup a nightmare of a race. Who Shot The Barman and Big Duke on form should be 50/1 but always worry about those two.
    It's about time for Libran. Egg Tart she has that bit of class, not going quite as well as previously but a big hope.

    Lord Fandango ( was a classic song years ago called "Too Much Fandango" ). He's cost me a lot of fandango but was great in the Benalla Cup. Ok at Caulfield behind Yucatan.
    The Kiwi horse Michael Walker is riding will nearly be rank outsider and not without a rough hope either. It's that sort of race.
    Patrick Erin - Metropolitan winner - a chance at around 14/1. If betting a place he'd be my one.
  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts

    Avilius: pipe opener for the Melbourne Cup or a fair dinkum attempt to win it ?
    His best chance of running second ( and an easier run as possible into the Cup ) is to be ridden quietly out the back.
    Let the pressure unfold and run home late, after Winx has dashed for home!

    Anybody give Benbatl the slightest chance of causing the upset ?
    It would be one of the rare occasions where the second favourite winning could be considered a boilover.

    @Ridersonthestorm33 Oisin Murphy is either bluffing or really confident. Will lead them up and the mare will have to catch him. I think Winx has been primed for this as it may be her swansong-although one of the owners has suggested she'll race on next Autumn. However, if the Turnbull was more than just a flat run before her Spring target, then, yes, Benbatl could shock here.

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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited October 2018
    The Kiwi mare Ladies First in the Moonee Valley Cup is well named..by Dylan Thomas out of Just Polite.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    Irish Derby winner Latrobe out of the Melbourne Cup. The attrition rate so far this year is high.
    Looks like Yucatan will run a clear cut favourite.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited October 2018
    Nakeeta is an interesting runner if getting a start in the Moonee Valley Cup. Named as first emergency.
    Was a terrific 5th in last year's Melbourne Cup and 2017 UK Ebor Handicap winner. Entered for the Cup again.
    Is abit out of form but still a bit surprised can't get a definite start in a 15 horse field Moonee Valley Cup.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,676 posts
    His half Sixties Groove is still trying to get to the MC..not even passed the first ballot clause and has 50.5 so looks in a fair bit of barney rubble, whilst i see Weir has nommed for the Bendigo Cup maybe he will run in the winner exempt race at Flemington Derby day...i think he will give both of these races a shake...Is $101/26 futures for the "makes the cup field at the last minute speculator" 8-X
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited October 2018
    Blimey forgot all about the Group One Manikato tomorrow night.
    Kementari on a 1 x 4 basis for me. Was a bit dissapointing behind Grunt but he's better than that. The second to Humidor was very good.
    James Cummings to gain another Group One!
    The value runner for a place at around $4.50 might be Voodoo Lad he missed the kick terribly last start when favourite and did a pretty good job to finish fourth.

    Once again import U.S. Navy Flag is surprisingly short at around $6.50. The improver ? Hard to get a guide on the Everest run...may have come on ?

    therealkramer likes this post.

  • JellJell    1,201 posts

    Blimey forgot all about the Group One Manikato tomorrow night.
    Kementari on a 1 x 4 basis for me. Was a bit dissapointing behind Grunt but he's better than that. The second to Humidor was very good.
    James Cummings to gain another Group One!
    The value runner for a place at around $4.50 might be Voodoo Lad he missed the kick terribly last start when favourite and did a pretty good job to finish fourth.

    Once again import U.S. Navy Flag is surprisingly short at around $6.50. The improver ? Hard to get a guide on the Everest run...may have come on ?

    Voodoo Lad each way all day, forget his last run like you mentioned. A lot of speed on his inside I think he gets a nice run midfield and gets out late to run home strong B-)

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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited October 2018
    Mark Zahra fresh off a winning treble at Geelong to ride Voodoo Lad.

    Don't mind the approximate $1.50 odds about either Kementari or Voodoo Lad running a place. That's based on roughly $50 a place Kementari and about $25 a place Voodoo Lad.
    The bonus is if ( big if ) both lob then the odds go right up.
    Neither running a drum = minus $75.
  • jumjum    3,512 posts
    Voodoo lad will improve 4 lengths with the change in Jock. I cant stand Brad Rawiller
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,676 posts
    I'm a Voodoo fan but group 1 level is right on his limiter, good place chance and does love the valley though..looks a hard race to find the winner to me.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,236 posts
    Its Prezados night tonight. Just needs to find its feet early and not miss the kick by a mile.

    Sunlight walks in with the 51kg. I hope
  • JellJell    1,201 posts
    edited October 2018
    Ex Bob Peters filly and WA Oaks winner, Special Alert, goes around in R2, I didn’t even know she was sold.

    Form has been quite poor unfortunately but her last run was an improvement and tonight looks a bit easier.

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  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,676 posts
    Widgee Turf should go well R3, only 3kgs over the limit i reckon he nails Iconoclasm late..their the logical quinella but it may not even pay any better than the fav..
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    Lord Fandango scratched from Moonee Valley Cup, in comes Nakeeta ( Brett Prebble ).
    The favourite Very Elegant scratched from race 10.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,676 posts
    B-) Giddyup @Riders hope you got on the sydney girl Nettoyer?? massively down in grade :x

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  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,676 posts
    Based on how well Nettoyer handled her Valley debut im punting on the Lord Mayor doing likewise, he is an on pacer may even lead them up tonite which is not a bad place to be at saucer central :D

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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited October 2018
    Great call on Nettoyer thunder... 58kg but beaten just 5 lengths in the Group One Metropolitan!

    Just off the beaten track track for a moment...see that former handy NSW stayer and 400k earner Olympic Academy went around in a weak stayers race at Gawler today and won at a huge $43 carrying a massive 64kgs.

    The minimum weighted horse in today's race was on 56.5kgs...25 years ago same race Olympic Academy would have got about 67kg and the minimum would have been 46 or 48kgs.
    Most talking about the great weight carrying effort...it was..but by the same token, he was in comparison to yesteryear thrown in.

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  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,676 posts
    @H may be right the filly could lead them a merry dance here..Houtzen is a sneaky chance hope they dont chop each other up or its anyones... and for some reason i think O'briens 2nd stringer Spirit of Valour might figure at good odds, ran on well last start shizz draw but may get a trail into the straight...
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited October 2018
    What about the forgotten horse - Brave Smash ??
    A big drifter Kementari.
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