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Ascot Preview, 3rd November

West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts
edited November 2018 West Australian Racing

Race 1 - Snip Snip

Tinsnip looks extremely well placed to turn the tables on Prim And Proper in the first at Ascot. Was arguably a good thing beaten second up when Pike had some minor traffic issues early in the straight. From the good draw, with the 2kg weight swing and the added 100m, she should take some beating.

The unraced pair of Specialism and Tajmali who both looked sharp in 400m trial victories, could provide the biggest threat in a typical race of juvenile unknowns.

At around the $2.5-3 mark, happy having a small win bet on Pike to ride the first of his five winners for the day.

Selections

2 Tinsnip
1 Prim And Proper
8 Specialism

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Tinsnip (2).

 

Race 2 - Magic Stone

Tayla Stone is really getting horses to run for her at the moment. The Big Show and Five Degrees are prime examples in the last week, who have not had the best of runs in transit but a lack of panic and very clean hands, has seen Tayla get the job done. Happy with her appointment on the Adam Durrant trained Magic Planet and she shouldn’t have too many issues in transit from the good gate.

After a strong two year old campaign, this Planet Five gelding was disappointing in a trial and two subsequent starts, before stepping up to the very hot Bunbury Classic and running an absolute bolter. Was off heels over the last 50m which cost him being a length closer, but I have no doubt he was travelling just as well as Lady Cosmology, Valour Road and Agent Pippa on the line. That form is far superior to anything in this event. The Neville Parnham trained pair of Wakan Tanka and Lord Greystoke should roll forward and set a reasonable tempo and Tayla should be able to have Wakan Tanka’s back. I’d suggest it’ll give a bigger kick than Lord Greystoke, allowing Stone to roll (no pun intended) off his back at some point in the straight.

Festival Miss was a nice run midweek against the smart Ninth Hour, though that galloper was forced to circle the field with 59kg’s. The rest of that field was ordinary. Deacalda was a soft maiden winner and I suspect there will be support again, but the barrier draw is a little sticky. May have to go back with Festival Miss.

The $7 on offer for Magic Planet looks like good shopping on the proven form lines. Could consider going each way, but unfortunately it is only a seven horse field. Each to their own.

Selections

1 Magic Planet
3 Festival Miss
6 Deacalda

Suggested Bet: 70 wins Magic Planet (1).

 

Race 3 - Now You Seannie, Now You Don’t

Bit of work to be done on the race name, but you get the drift. For the mere paper and replay punter this race involves too much guess work to have any type of real confidence about. Simon Miller has talked about Olivers Travels being in great order and the Railway still in his sights, while Seannie was one of the more exciting two year old’s to come out of Perth.

I’m happy speculating on Seannie. Her run at Moonee Valley earlier this year when coming from last at the 200m at Moonee Valley was huge. It was only a benchmark 70, but she proved that to be no fluke with a third in a group three at her following start. If she is right, she could absolutely brain these with 54.5kgs.

I’m going to have my old mate Candlelight Star in for second. Was happy having him on top if Seannie wasn’t in this event. I really feel like he didn’t find the right race last campaign. Recent run at Geraldton under the inexperienced Jessica Gray, was better than it looks on paper and this is a serious race horse. A small field with not a huge amount of top end speed looks perfect for Chris Parnham to unleash a pre-bend move. A quirky, but highly underrated galloper.

The Celt will finally get a race he can dictate from the front, though I do wonder exactly how well he is going now. The 59.5kg’s is a real leveller. Masquerade is your $1.70 favourite and is the one who gets the right run here, but I don’t think she is up to a few of these at their best. I’ve still got 5 winners for Pike, but this isn’t one of them.

We’ll suggest a win bet on Seannie ($5.5) and Candlelight Star ($18) in the small field.

Selections

6 Seannie
3 Candlelight Star
2 The Celt

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Seannie (6). 25 wins Candlelight Star (3).

 

Race 4 - R & R

The only thing better than a bit of R & R is the return of P & P. I have a stack of time for this Brock Lewthwaite trained mare and her recent trial was soft. She was wide and hard held when defeating a pretty smart bunch of gallopers who were all trying a little bit harder than she was.

The jockey appointment gives me some cause for concern, and while I commend (what I presume is) the loyalty to the blokes doing the work, this can be a once in a lifetime horse for a trainer with a smaller operation and I am surprised a Pateman, Parnham or Noske haven’t been booked for the mount. Julien Kokotajlo is more than capable however and all he needs to do is sit on and find some racing room in the straight to win this. Really exciting animal.

Sally’s Realm was good first up and appears the main danger. The step up to 1200m and the inside draw are both in her favour and if the favourite finds any bother in the straight, she will be the one coming hard late.

You can just about throw a blanket over the rest of the field.

Really happy with the $2.50 Pearls And Prawns. Easily the best bet of the day at that quote.

Selections

7 Pearls And Prawns
13 Sally’s Realm
3 Flower Of Scotland

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Pearls And Prawns (7).

 

Race 5 - Pike’s Command

Seeing as I’ve tipped Pike for the five winners and he only has the one to race five, it is fair to say you can stop reading from here as the rest is fairly predictable. I have an all cerise and white quaddie.

Royal Command is a very close second best of the day to Pearls And Prawns. Was scratched last week with a minor ailment, though I would suggest the clash with Arcadia Queen would have played a fairly key role in that withdrawal. Besides Platoon, this is a very midweek field and Platoon has drawn the widest gate. It’s going to be awfully hard from out there. I’d suspect Pike finds a spot in the first half of the field while Steve Parnham is forced back to near last. All things being equal I would still have Royal Command as the superior of the two gallopers. Just needs to find some cover and should be too strong late.

With not a huge amount of value to come, I do think there can be some found with frontrunning gelding Forseen. Back to his specialty trip and away from Belmont where he has a worse record than Jack Darling in grand finals, he should comfortably find the top in a race devoid of any natural speed. Two starts ago he ran third to Arcadia Prince at $101. While I highly doubt he has the class as a nine year old to win this, you can shop upwards of $10 a place.

Royal Command win at around $2.50 (multi into Pearls And Prawns is upwards of $5.50) with a small bet on the Forseen place.

Selections

5 Royal Command
10 Forseen
11 Platoon

Suggested Bet: 80 wins Royal Command (5). 20 places Forseen (10).

 

Race 6 - Short But Sweet

Galaxy Star should confirm his spot in the Railway and race favouritism (unless something is coming from over East I am unaware of) with victory in a very thin edition of the Asian Beau Stakes. The blinkers go on, which looks like the right move for it’s final hit out before the Railway and he really should be too strong for this lot. A win here will lift his rating to around 97/98 which still means he will get into the Railway on the minimum. Awfully hard to beat over the mile on the minimum, no matter what comes across.

Action is clearly the main danger and I have a nagging feeling it might go a lot closer than I initially anticipated. Was huge first up, aided by a perfect Jarrad Noske ride and the smaller field should suit in enabling Chris Parnham to keep him within cooee of the leaders. Like his stablemate, can reel off some blistering final splits.

Won’t be hopping into Galaxy Star at the $1.38, but the $8 or so on offer for the Railway Stakes, may well be the best price you’ll see if the blinkers sharpen him up as expected. A futures bet could be the play here.

Selections

3 Galaxy Star
5 Action
1 DIsposition

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 7 - Parnham v Pike

Usually with WFA events, you feel relatively confident backing the horses suited under the conditions of the race, rather than the handicap conditions. The problem here is, the major lead up to this event was a set weights and penalties race. So while a mare like Celebrity Dream is rated a lowly 88, compared to Dainty Tess’ 105, she meets her at the exact same weights under the conditions for both events.

Always a little risky plumping for sit and sprinter horses over the 1000m journey, but I do think this looks a race between the two aforementioned sprinters in Dainty Tess and Celebrity Dream. Nearly identical runs in the recent Crawford Stakes, Celebrity Dream didn’t get clear galloping room until Dainty Tess had levelled up at the 150m mark and by that stage, had the momentum. Dainty is the proven runner at this level of those two, but that run coupled with the appointment of William Pike cannot be ignored.

Chris Gangemi has a really strong hand here with Super Maxi likely to lead this with Saracino attempting to work to his outside, though he may need to be content with a sit when the lightly weighted three year old, Agent Pippa spears across. My worry here is the stable having as many on speed runners engaged as they do, may alter their tactics slightly. Super Maxi may allow Saracino to cross, it’ll be interesting to see how the race pans out.

Saracino is comfortably the lay of the day. Trial form does not equate to race form and while the 55.17 under minimal riding from heavy weight jockey Jarrad Noske is super impressive, I still remember backing a horse called Bank On Buzz at Pinjarra after a 55.03 trial victory. It didn’t go very well. Add to this, Saracino didn’t exactly ping the gates in that trial and was forced to muster to find the rail in front of middle distance horse Gatting. His last win was in New Zealand in early 2017. I have a strong opinion of the quality of WA sprinters and his recent efforts in Melbourne don’t stack up. In saying all of that, if anyone can get a tried horse to go to another level, it is the Gangemi’s.

It’ll be interesting to see how Agent Pippa goes against the older horses. I really like the placement by the Pearce’s and I am quite surprised that Simon Miller didn’t opt for a similar path with Valour Road en route to the Winterbottom.

Unless Celebrity Dream reaches $6+, I think I will sit this one out as a betting medium.

Selections

9 Celebrity Dream
7 Dainty Tess
1 Durendal

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 8 - One Mississippi

Have narrowed this down to the two runners down the bottom of the page, and ended up landing on Mississippi Delta. Was absolutely no hope first up when they absolutely walked behind Rockon Tommy. Ran a sharp final 200m, but it was an impossibility to catch them from where she got to. From the good gate should settle in the first six and if the pace is slack again, I would not be surprised to see William Pike make a move from the 600m. She has proven she can handle a sustained sprint, especially on the minimum weight.

Ragazzo D’Oro was one I thought might get past a few people, but clearly I was wrong with the astute snapping up the $17s in the early market. Has had minimal luck at his two first up runs and the rise to 1600m third up looks the perfect assignment. Is a better horse when ridden more aggressively and in a race devoid of a huge amount of speed outside Rockon Tommy, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Azzopardi try to kick him out of the gates and find the outside of that galloper. Pushed Western Temple last campaign when ridden in this manner.

Rockon Tommy, Red Publisher, A Knight Of Pro, Bold Success, Reveille and Just Like Fire are all more than capable of giving a race like this a shake - highly competitive affair to finish the day. Still very keen on Mississippi Delta to be too strong late and the $5 looks a more than fair quote.

Selections

10 Mississippi Delta
11 Ragazzo D’Oro
2 Rockon Tommy

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Mississippi Delta (10).
 

Comments

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,016 posts
    Masquerade 1.01 in race 5

    Must be a fairly large multi alive?
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,016 posts
    And now the betting suspended in race 5....something fishy going on or TAB error?
  • JellJell    906 posts
    They probably forgot that 1.03 is overs for a TABtouch fixed odds market ;)) ;)) ;))
  • TheDivaTheDiva    11,388 posts
    Im with Terry on Seannie. The only thing that worries me is that sometimes Lindsey doesnt have them fully wound up first up. This horse however has the fresh record. 

    Thunderstruck likes this post.

  • silkysilky    262 posts
    On the Turps e/w in the 4th
  • hashhash    6,282 posts
    edited November 2018
    TheDiva said:

    Im with Terry on Seannie. The only thing that worries me is that sometimes Lindsey doesnt have them fully wound up first up. This horse however has the fresh record. 




    No trial and first up from a prep in Melb.... recipe for disaster
  • JellJell    906 posts
    I think young Randy might just jump and run with Agent Pippa and say catch me if you can, with only 51.5kg on her back.

    I'll throw the most beloved horse in WA racing in for the quinella :x

    hash likes this post.

  • pikerpiker    313 posts
    This is The Other Ascot Review (or attempt).

    R/1 When was the last time before P and P that LL won with a hot fave?
    I just better watch this one as who knows about the unexposed form?

    R/2 I have not been so keen on the MP form like my bro above.
    I have had an early hunch (guess,dream or misguided hope) that Deacalda may have improved further and would sit outside the leader here and run away with the race on the turn.
    I missed the 2.8 so had to take the 2.3. Wakan Tanka has blown big time and I thought Lord G seemed to be ridden out in his trial.

    R/3 I do not like this race as Masquerade v v short at 1.8.
    Then I see Candlelight and Minus Looks at really good prices and Seeannie as the unknown.
    I am still scratching my head.

    R/4 I missed the black for P and P and had to take 1.9 in my all ups. From his trial he has come back bigger and stronger.
    Sallys Realm is now good odds here at 3.9.
    I cannot leave out Sweet Dreamin after the great first up run and have done some coupling at good place odds.
    I have left out Spillanova and hope I do not regret this as he is one of those beaut free running types from the JT yard.

    R/5 I think this is is a raffle because as I said last week I am tired of backing Royal Command.
    Forseen as stated above looks interesting at 60's and what about Purist at 150's!
    Platoon was of course v painful for me last week and there is a strong rumour he will be scratched to be kept for next week.

    R/6 Lots of all ups are on here through and in to Galaxy Star. I missed 1.4 and took 1.33

    R/7 This is a great race and yes, DT has won lots of times over 1000m and more than once two in a row. The odds on offer seem too generous; typically spoken by a suspicious type; but I have still put her in.
    Celebrity Dream did appear to have been held up v slightly 2 weeks ago, so has to go in.
    My main go is Saracino; I think he may realize the great potential he has obviously always been promising. He could sit just off them and then pinch a break.
    As probably everyone knows I always like Lockroy and what a great job he did 2 weeks ago fighting away on the speed throughout; he is in for me for a few place all ups.

    R/8 I have gone for Just Like Fire and the Ragazzo horse here. Their odds are v good and maybe I will find out why on the day!
    I am still blinking at Double Digit at 10's.
    Gee, I am still smarting at Rockon Tommy beating Cappo D'Oro last time so I will have to put Reveile in ; but CP off and on to Bold Success and JT on Reveille!
    Now Just Like Fire is scratched! So I have to put in one of my fave horses AKOP.
    The topweight has a canny trainer so I will settle on 1,5,8 and 11 in my last quad leg.

    In closing, I hope we all are close on Sat with our noses in front ( how did Masquerade beat Finally French that 2nd time and how did True Attraction win 2 weeks ago?).
    A good surprise helps now and again! All the Best.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,016 posts
    Lord Greystroke is gelded in race 2 for anyone playing. It hasn't been listed in the hear changes. It was gelded after last start on the 12 the September and come out and won two trials.

    Would have been great to know in the form guide!

    Thunderstruck, Jell likes this post.

  • hashhash    6,282 posts
    Jell said:

    I think young Randy might just jump and run with Agent Pippa and say catch me if you can, with only 51.5kg on her back.

    I'll throw the most beloved horse in WA racing in for the quinella :x



    They’d be mad not to!!

    If I was betting it would be one of my better each way plays of the day
  • JellJell    906 posts
    edited November 2018
    H-BOMBER said:

    Lord Greystroke is gelded in race 2 for anyone playing. It hasn't been listed in the hear changes. It was gelded after last start on the 12 the September and come out and won two trials.

    Would have been great to know in the form guide!

    I wasn't prepared to take the opening prices but I'm on each way now after the drift off the back of two nice trials.

    H-BOMBER, Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

  • JellJell    906 posts
    Talk about bitter sweet. I take 11/4.4 and it jumps at 26/8.5 :((

    Massive leader bias judging by the first two races. Even more confident about Agent Pippa's chances in the Prince Of Wales now.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,016 posts
    Send all Lord Greystroke beer donations to me please :)
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,402 posts
    edited November 2018
    Hope you got on at the best odds Jell...big diff between tote and corps.
    SP was around 25/1 to 30/1 with the satchel swingers.
    Chris Parnham influence on the tote. Class hoop.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    2,042 posts
    Shoulda waited for the drift mate!! I thought it had none til it got to $26 :-c
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,402 posts
    Ouch just read that Jell.
  • JellJell    906 posts
    Ouch indeed but a win means you're doing better than before :-bd

    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

  • RodentRodent    4,769 posts
    Better than $44 on betfair at the death for Tarzan. Amazing drift.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,016 posts
    Freo whoa.

    Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,016 posts
    Galaxy star wowee

    Gilgamesh likes this post.

    Thunderstruck dislikes this post.

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    2,042 posts
    Big chance at the weights, dependent on who comes from over east..And as she beat not much today $4.75 tabtouch is ludicris lol

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,016 posts
    Tess what a star

    Thunderstruck likes this post.

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    2,042 posts
    Dainty Tess..absolute moral today with lots of speed setting it up for her, deadset SuperDuper mare she is!!
  • JellJell    906 posts
    Dainty Tess again, what else is there to say about her. Just keeps on performing.

    Super Maxi going toe to toe with Agent Pippa at the start didn't help. I thought she would lead easily.

    goose likes this post.

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,402 posts
    edited November 2018
    At least one out of Willy Pike and Chris Parnham were in the top three placegetters every race today. They dominated.
    Full credit to Parnham too...he may not have the favoured rides of Pikey but he's every inch in the same class.

    Winsumlosesum likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,016 posts
    I won the tip star comp this week all thanks to Lord Greystroke and his lack of testes

    $500 cheque AND $500 Crown voucher! Absolute ripping prize!

    Gilgamesh, carey, oldhendo, Chelsea, hash likes this post.

  • GilgameshGilgamesh    2,926 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    I won the tip star comp this week all thanks to Lord Greystroke and his lack of testes

    $500 cheque AND $500 Crown voucher! Absolute ripping prize!



    Where do we find this comp?
  • paraleticparaletic    3,097 posts
    I keep on forgetting to put my tips in on this comp lol
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,402 posts
    edited November 2018
    Talking of names like the interestingly Lord Greystroke ( good one Bomber ), we have a terrific race named the "Burgess Queen"...in another decade there might be another feature race named after another mare...the "Dainty Tess" .
    She's developed a record fully deserving of it.

    Chelsea likes this post.

  • RodentRodent    4,769 posts
    It's Lord Greystoke not Lord Greystroke. Lord Greystroke would be a name for a geriatric porn star.

    goose likes this post.

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