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New Handicapping System for the Trots

Harness & Greyhounds

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  • savethegamesavethegame    1,281 posts
    Jay Jay  gee going through smackwater jack's form he sure did climb the summit,nailing a metro stake; but the sad news rwwa have  allocated harness  739k....greyhounds 2,317,000  gallopers 6,660,404..

    OF The 739k ------- 309k is to finish the new business model...….430k for 43races four yearold +  to  extend the earning opportunity of westbred horses.....

    Thought they may have offered a two year moratorium  on fees for Kalgoorlie licenced harness people trainers drivers,and stablehands,as the door  was slammed in there faces, tyranny  of distance...was the ceo's  favourite word..at the time....

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  • getthechangegetthechange    100 posts

    Getthechange it seems like your explanation of the 3 systems supports moving a horse like smack water jack to somewhere where the NR system is in place as it will place him in easier company than what he currently has to race against under the HWOE which may increase his earnings and rating ?
    My view on the $L5 races and a possible alternative was forwarded to the powers that be when it first came in, since not much reward was coming from my efforts to effect change to what was being implemented I decided to just get on with it and wait for the powers that be to present to the industry the results of the implementation of the NBM and CRS which hopefully comes out before the new racing season .



    loaded question but I will put up the umbrella and answer as politely as I can

    what would I do with him - I would enter him only for L5$ LT $12,000 races only - if he got a ballot he would trackwork - after five starts without winning he would be in a L5$ LT $8,000 race - he would then start in L5$ LT $8,000 races only and if he didn't win after five starts he would go into the L5$ LT $4,000 races in the country

    When he gets to being eligible for L5$ LT $4,000 he can start in either that race or the L5$ LT $8000 race without affecting his eligibility for either provided he doesn't win - if he won the L5$ LT $4,000 he would still be eligible for the L5$ LT $8,000 - if he won the L5$ LT $8,000 he would go back up to the L5$ LT $12,000 for five starts

    By then the HRA ratings will be up and running and if he has been finishing 6th to last his points will probably be in the 30s which will be about 20 points lower than the non winner Gazzella Fella who will just be coming back from a spell

    Note -

    the last time and possibly the only time Smackwater Jack started in a L5$ LT $12,000 race he was 6th across the line and officially 5th after another runner was disqualified - officially beaten 8.4 metres

    placement is everything in these races

    Brookies Jet and Smackwater Jack are both eligible for L5$ LT $12,000 races and both are five starts in L5$ LT $12,000 races away from being eligible for L5$ Lt $8,000 races

    After today Brookies Jet will be four starts in L5$ LT$12,000 races away from being eligible for a L5$ LT$8,000 races  as todays race is level 8

    After today Smackwater Jack will still be five starts away from being eligible for a L5$ Lt $8,000 race as todays race is level 9

    Smackwater Jack started on the 7th May in a L5$ LT $12,000 and if he had continued racing in those races he would be eligible or very close to being eligible for the L5$ LT $8,000

    Think Smackwater Jack is better than R J Bopper and he has two 2nds and a 3rd in his last 9 starts in L5$ LT $8000 races



  • aussiebattleraussiebattler    56 posts

    Thanks for that info , maybe they should program more level races at the $4,500 staked races and draw them from bottom up to keep in form horses racing at better tracks and those that are battling will then still have a chance to earn and improve just a thought.
  • savethegamesavethegame    1,281 posts
    Victoria introduced  tier racing,  the trainer hcp. his own horse where tier 1.. was 10k races and down to tier 2 was 7000 races and tier 3 was 3500....and nominated to what standard they thought  horse  was at,  don't know how it went,

    Think within your ratings band  or hwoe…..the odd race for like for like trainers, would be more benefical  trainers that haven't  won a race in the previous 12 months, with the nominated horse being in the trainers name for a period of three months....0 wins 0-2 wins ..

    What rwwa virtual is saying smarten up...with the scraps  harness is to reiceve extra in
     2020 you can ill afford Friday nights to allow six horse fields.what ever class To generate greater wagering returns that then can be reinvested back to the industry via distribution.
     
    Harness has  had to many self self self players over the years has lead to this..
  • GlenGlen    30 posts
    Ok gtc,
    Let’s presume a trainer comes to me and says I’d like you to buy a horse.
    I say “ that’s awesome what’s the go”
    He says “ I’ve got one that is worth ago that has been roughly transitioned but if you pay me to train it and run no where in its next 10 starts which is 10 weeks of training fees with travel, vet fees, shoeing and the rest of fees we can get it into a race which also taking into account it hasn’t forgotten how to win we should be able to win a race if we are able to draw a barrier because it’s random barrier draw but if we can draw a barrier you can win roughly $4500, what do you reckon?
    I say “ well will that cover training fees”
    He says “ well it might if we have some luck on our side”
    I say “ no thanks I think I can find better investments and more fun doing something else”
    My point is who would want to invest in this game if this is what you are trying to promote, no brolly needed and as far as I’m concerned you should be getting into the bunker.

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  • JayJayJayJay    5,146 posts
    On the plus side, you will pick up some unplaced runner stakes ($100 unplaced runner payment)  and maybe some place money for running first to fifth, provided the races you enter hold up and there may be a pref barrier draw of sorts that might assist your earning potential.....the down side is that the win stake is only about $3,900 after percentages if it is a "C" race.....if it is an "R" race, the owner gets about $2,200 after percentages. If your race falls over....and you decide to have a throw at the stumps at a higher level race, any starts you have in the $L5 will revert to zero, so it may well be more than 10 starts before you "drop back" so to speak. Nonetheless, to buy and race that horse you would need a fair dose of altruism as it would be very difficult to come even close to a book profit. Worth noting that the extra stake money, the $430k figure, will be Westbred based, so that would be your target horse. According to Kerry Hanks this morning, those 43 races worth $10k each will be run at the major provincial tracks (Pinjarra, Northam and Bunbury) and may be out of reach for the battling horse you might be targeting.

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  • getthechangegetthechange    100 posts
    Glen said:

    Ok gtc,
    Let’s presume a trainer comes to me and says I’d like you to buy a horse.
    I say “ that’s awesome what’s the go”
    He says “ I’ve got one that is worth ago that has been roughly transitioned but if you pay me to train it and run no where in its next 10 starts which is 10 weeks of training fees with travel, vet fees, shoeing and the rest of fees we can get it into a race which also taking into account it hasn’t forgotten how to win we should be able to win a race if we are able to draw a barrier because it’s random barrier draw but if we can draw a barrier you can win roughly $4500, what do you reckon?
    I say “ well will that cover training fees”
    He says “ well it might if we have some luck on our side”
    I say “ no thanks I think I can find better investments and more fun doing something else”
    My point is who would want to invest in this game if this is what you are trying to promote, no brolly needed and as far as I’m concerned you should be getting into the bunker.



    transition is a means of getting from one system to the other

    transition affected some horses better than others but how those horses were affected in transition doesn't reflect how the system operates long term

    there are a lot of horses that connections perceive have had a "rough" transition that I would purchase

    but

    If you are so concerned about buying a horse that has a "rough" transition then buy a  yearling or a maiden


    Good transition or bad transition?

    Both C1 horses at transition

    Seven Demerits - at transition C1 - 1 win at first race start - transitioned at $3,600

    32 starts as a C1 before coming to WA for stake money of $7,368

    19 WA starts under HWOE for $7,393 - including first win for two years

    HWOE $6162

    Lovely horse with limited ability that will continue to earn for his new owners

    bought by WA owners


    R J Bopper - at transition C1 - 7wins - transitioned at $17,500

    23 starts under HWOE for $10,563 including first win for two years

    stake money without the win $6,079

    previous 23 starts under MCR $5,984

    Current HWOE $21,983  -

    placed three of last nine in L5$ LT $8,000

    Eligible for L5$ LT$4,000

    will win races

    sold to Wendy Boyd for asking price without being advertised


    reason for selling - winter cull


  • savethegamesavethegame    1,281 posts
    Those 43 westbred races at them tracks could be for horse that haven't run  a place in there last ten starts should be able to cover the battling horse?.

    I am all for the w.a. breeding industry, or do we have  those 43 races at wagin Albany busselton and let 200k kiwis on easy marks start 1.04 tell me how that helps the industry.

    Think narrogin was mentioned as a track that would get some of those 10k westbred races as well
  • ChariotsonfireChariotsonfire    1,749 posts
    Interesting interview with Keyy Hanks on Tabradio where she stated that a report on how HWOE is performing should be available within about two weeks. Kerry indicated RWWA would be very transparent about the results and if the new system is not working they may consider converting to the National Handicapping System.

    Distribution stagnant for harness so it is imperative that we increase our share of the market.
  • sonnysonny    616 posts
    If the system is not working what is there to consider??

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  • MarkovinaMarkovina    1,065 posts

    Interesting interview with Keyy Hanks on Tabradio where she stated that a report on how HWOE is performing should be available within about two weeks. Kerry indicated RWWA would be very transparent about the results and if the new system is not working they may consider converting to the National Handicapping System.


    Distribution stagnant for harness so it is imperative that we increase our share of the market.
    Pretty pivotal time for WA Harness Racing at the moment - with the imminent sale of the WA TAB

    And if they want to increase turnover - then they have to lift their game , TAB.Com - each week list the big harness racing bets - and someone last week had 30k on a 6 to 4 pop  - do you think the WA TAB would accept that bet i would doubt it

    With Aust wide harness racing - 90% of all runners - they bet unders compared to other totes re fixed odds - are you going to attract turnover that way - id doubt it

    As Riders and Gilga have posted - other TABS re harness racing - QLD Vic and NSW - on some races have guarnteed 1st 4 pools - to get big pools - do the WA TAB ever do that on harness racing - i havent seen it . And those 2 posters have also queried - where 1st 4 jackpots go  - if they occur on the last race - where do they go to . This Friday night at Narrogin - if say on the last race the 1st 4 isnt won - why dont they tell the punters where that jackpot money goes to - which race - they just dont - talk about pathetic

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  • JayJayJayJay    5,146 posts
    Also of interest on TAB radio this morning with Kerry Hanks was the rejection of a harness trainer starter subsidy payment of $75 per starter at a cost (I think) of $670,00 on the basis that it wasn't a "spend" that could generate any return, or words to that effect. As I understand things as they currently stand (and I'll stand corrected), galloping trainers receive a $75 per starter payment regardless off finishing position, on top of the payment owners receive for an unplaced runner.  I am not sure, and after scouring the website have been unable to ascertain what happens with Greyhounds, but in the press release on Industry Distribution for 2018/2019, I did see that  "the greyhound trainers subsidy has been increased to $50 at a cost of  $570k" and in the latest announcement, there is a statement "an increase in the trainers subsidy for 490m+ races" without stating what the actual payment will be. So if I am reading this correctly, harness trainers receive nothing in the way of a starters subsidy and their counterparts in thoroughbreds and greyhounds do. Perhaps there is a case to be taken to the fair work commission, as harness trainers may well cart 4 or 5 runners to a distant country meeting, encompassing some 6-10 hours of toil, and if all of their runners are unplaced, they get nothing other than their standard training fee (and any "floating costs" that they may or may not wish to charge their owners).
    So on the surface, is it correct to assume that there is discrimination...is that too harsh a word?....okay, maybe.... but it would seem that it is not a level playing field across the codes and a disincentive to head off to Narrogin on a Friday night to race for a $4,500 total stake of which they can conceivably get a zero return.

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  • ChariotsonfireChariotsonfire    1,749 posts
    Marko Tabcorp control the jackpots under the pooling arrangements for Supertab.

    Race to race jackpots and last race jackpots are placed wherever Tabcorp wants to.  Obviously not ideal from WA's point of view but it is a cost of being in Supertab.
  • getthechangegetthechange    100 posts

    HWOE - Ratings going forward

    This attachment shows the progress of horses that were HWOE $0 maidens when the WA system was introduced and also has the current national ratings for those horses - as at 11th July for both( last Thursday)

    Will update figures at the end of July so all can monitor both systems

    Done manually so possibly the odd mistake - trotters not included


    docx
    docx
    winners first time.docx
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  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    9,025 posts
    edited July 16
    Race to race jackpots are NOT placed where Tabcorp likes them to go.
    That's why they are called race to race Jackpots - they go on the very next event from where the Jackpot originated.

    However last race of the night Jackpots and Quaddie Jackpots are not allocated to the next event..because their is none...they should then be allocated to the very next opportunity of a WA meeting. It's rather simple.

    Where does the last race Jackpot go ? Nobody knows.

    As far as betting Fixed Odds on the Trots/Races/Greyhounds - WA Tab worst odds bar none. What's more everybody knows it. Only the PC brigade deny it. As if there are ain't enough of them...toe the party line...yes sir..no sir.
  • freodockersfreodockers    266 posts
    Who got racing managers job haven't seen a thing,
  • getthechangegetthechange    100 posts

    HWOE - Ratings going forward - updated

    will update again in first week of new season with figures from last week of current season and first week of new season

    docx
    docx
    winners first time.docx
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  • JayJayJayJay    5,146 posts
    Any sign of the data on turnover, odds on favorites, horse population numbers etc that has been promised and promised now that we are nearly 9 months into the new model? I was told several weeks ago, maybe 4 weeks ago that the numbers are in and being compiled. Hopefully soon. Just looking at parimutuals of late, I have detected an anecdotal rise but until we get actual numbers, who knows? Field sizes, as is usual for this time of year, appear to be struggling.....but the industry is still in the dark without data.
  • freodockersfreodockers    266 posts
    So no one got racing managers job I take it ???
  • JayJayJayJay    5,146 posts
    Kerry Hanks is the Manager Harness Racing.
  • getthechangegetthechange    100 posts
    Jay Jay - also haven't seen any RWWA data -   the attachment is a summary of some figures I have manually compiled since May but  three months isn't enough time to put it forward as anything other than a matter of interest
    docx
    docx
    PTT.docx
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  • aussiebattleraussiebattler    56 posts
    JayJay said:

    Any sign of the data on turnover, odds on favorites, horse population numbers etc that has been promised and promised now that we are nearly 9 months into the new model? I was told several weeks ago, maybe 4 weeks ago that the numbers are in and being
    compiled. Hopefully soon. Just looking at parimutuals of late, I have detected an anecdotal rise but until we get actual numbers, who knows? Field sizes, as is usual for this time of year, appear to be struggling.....but the industry is still in the dark without data.



    The info I have from the racing Manager below as of 24/7
    Work has progressed and we’ll be presenting something to the Harness Racing Consultative Group on 14th August as well as providing the info to the industry.
    Looking at the data it’s my opinion there has not been significant change in any area, i.e. winners <$1.60, turnover, field sizes. There has been a slight shift in the distribution of stakes at the lower end of the scale (without effecting the top end) but it’s not significant enough at this point in time to get excited about. It might be an indication of the change occurring but impossible to tell at this early stage.

    We only received the Race Fields Turnover and Revenue information for May yesterday so we’re never working with up-to-date data. It’s pretty frustrating.

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  • JayJayJayJay    5,146 posts

    Jay Jay - also haven't seen any RWWA data -   the attachment is a summary of some figures I have manually compiled since May but  three months isn't enough time to put it forward as anything other than a matter of interest

    Cheers, interesting and the sort of stuff that should be circulated so that informed debate can occur. Good work, the comparison from November will hopefully be circulated by Kerry.
  • JayJayJayJay    5,146 posts
    @aussiebattler , Yes I have received similar sentiments from Kerry re the lag in data ....I do not envy her task and have found the "listening ear" and communication lines to be pretty open and approachable. I think anecdotally there hasn't appeared to be much change (on just my casual read) but the numbers on August 14 will tell the story. Thanks for that.
  • JayJayJayJay    5,146 posts

    Data From first month of operation of the National Ratings in Victoria  from the AHRI:

    For Victorian participants interested in July 2019 compared with July 2018, please find the following:


    July 2019 had the same number of races meetings (39), but we ran 6 more
    races than July 2018. Average field size was marginally higher in 2019
    compared to 2018.

    Amount of races with <$1.50 favourite decreased signficantly from 27% in July 2018 to 21% in July 2019.

    Total prizemoney paid was 10% higher in July 2019 compared to July 2018.

    Thank-you to everyone who has continued to race during the first month of the new handicapping system

  • savethegamesavethegame    1,281 posts
    N.Z. Imports  like    Wild west will help keep under the  1.50  s.p.  for a few starts under any system....first start pinjarra 1.05. without any proof think bond, hall, reed play top of the market on the high price ones.from .nz. so there's  probably more kiwis imported into vic...but the % of mickey mouse ones over 50k. that make there way to w.a. in comparison would be interesting..

    Wouldn't hang my hat  on saying the drop of 6% is significant ,,,,,just in wildwest, shipment, article said kingslayer, forgotton highway the ideal touch, were making the trip more odds-on favourites  no system can stop.that
  • curmudgeoncurmudgeon    1,374 posts
    Would say the Vic odds on % drop may be tied into the widespread PBD NR at first glance STG. Too little time has elapsed to be positive about the link but to me that seems likely. 

    The widespread RBD associated with the HWOE system isn't an effective handicapping tool .....it is based on the rather curious assumption that barriers don't matter in harness racing..

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  • getthechangegetthechange    100 posts

    Would say the Vic odds on % drop may be tied into the widespread PBD NR at first glance STG. Too little time has elapsed to be positive about the link but to me that seems likely. 


    The widespread RBD associated with the HWOE system isn't an effective handicapping tool .....it is based on the rather curious assumption that barriers don't matter in harness racing..



    Would be surprised if there was an assumption that barriers don't matter in harness racing but are pref draws that effective as a handicapping tool or do they just alter which horse is going to draw barrier one and quite possibly start fav.

    If they were to be used then which pref draw is best to use as by using C M or now HWOE almost ensures that horses coming through the classes that are the form runners can be placed to advantage resulting in an inside draw and creating another short priced fav - see attachment

    Pref draws on $L3 or $L6 impacts on all runners when in most races only a small number of runners need to be affected 

    Whilst agreeing that some pref draws are necessary I recall the dulcet tones of Ben Geerson from my time on BOTRA saying that it should be the "fundamental right of connections to be able to draw a barrier" .Not always possible but a nice idea in an ideal world

    docx
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    August 2018.docx
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  • Have a horse having its 6th start on monday. Never drawn the front . Horses name is newman .i think the handicapping system leaves a lot to be desired
  • savethegamesavethegame    1,281 posts

    N.Z. Imports  like    Wild west will help keep under the  1.50  s.p.  for a few starts under any system....first start pinjarra 1.05. without any proof think bond, hall, reed play top of the market on the high price ones.from .nz. so there's  probably more kiwis imported into vic...but the % of mickey mouse ones over 50k. that make there way to w.a. in comparison would be interesting..

    Wouldn't hang my hat  on saying the drop of 6% is significant ,,,,,just in wildwest, shipment, article said kingslayer, forgotton highway the ideal touch, were making the trip more odds-on favourites  no system can stop.that
    When the figures are released hope n.z. horses having there first start in w.a. regards odds-on favourites is available....The previous manager was talking under 1.80. as the figure ..always thought  under 2.00 was odds- on. aussie battler mentioned the figures he received for w.a. shows under a 1.60, now the Victorians are saying under a 1.50   as there figure..

    So  it seems like at the moment the vics. are making sure the % of red hot favourites  is decreasing..using the  1.50.. time will tell, personally thought PFD,would help lessen the shorties.but without a shadow of doubt high price kiwis on easy whatever, Certaintly give the w.a. figures a   decent whack.
    Two more today  My sweet dream 1.30.resuming left n.z. last aug first -up win was 1.24. Kingslayer 1.18. left n.z july 2019 on the back of wild west 1.05 pinj..  1.16.g.p.this week.   The figure I am interested in is how many didn't renew there licenses.
    Rank&File punters show not much interest under 2.00.,as the corporates continue to identify the pros with multiple accounts,they will dry up to a degree as well..Sydney starting to realise the importance of there local breeding industry,
    Regards the kiwi horses no doubt  people have  good reasons why they purchase them,mybook across the board punters, local breeders, majority of industry participants. numbers will continue decrease ,off the back of them.
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