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New Handicapping System for the Trots

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  • sonnysonny    657 posts
    Hi Chariots , The last one is no excuse... I did have a giggle at n3..... You must be an astute judge... .. You are not doubling up as Gilga.... are you..  Ha Ha 

    Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • GilgameshGilgamesh    3,146 posts
    sonny said:

    Hi Chariots , The last one is no excuse... I did have a giggle at n3..... You must be an astute judge... .. You are not doubling up as Gilga.... are you..  Ha Ha 




    Charriots is far to composed to be any relation haha.

    When stables started referring to themselves as teams we had a problem.

    freodockers likes this post.

  • curmudgeoncurmudgeon    1,590 posts
    edited September 2019
    I note that the HWOE system is now programming races for meetings over the same parameters regardless of status. eg  the Kellerberrin community meeting on the 22nd of this month has the same race HWOE parameters as provincial meetings at Pinjarra ....except for the prizemoney being halved. On top of that the HWOE LT $3K race has been deleted so if you have a male formerly R1 horse you go into the lottery for the top down LT $12 K race as your minimum class option. 

    GTC ..please tell me again how the HWOE is helping the lesser class horses......and how long do you consider it will be before a 3 y/o wins every LT 12K race for 3/4 penalty in a community class season?

  • curmudgeoncurmudgeon    1,590 posts
    I have been informed that LT $3K races have now been added to the programming for Kellerberrins first two meetings following feedback and consultation .

    savethegame likes this post.

  • VillageKidVillageKid    1,583 posts
    For what it is worth since the start of this new season going back to Pinjarra last Monday we have had 35 races here in WA and 28 favourites (most of those very short odds) have saluted the judge.
    Broken down even further I believe the last 13 races run here including the 3 run at Pinjarra so far today have been won by the favourite in each race.

    savethegame likes this post.

  • BetonmeBetonme    147 posts
    Looks like they struggling to get full fields of late also. 

    savethegame likes this post.

  • ChariotsonfireChariotsonfire    1,828 posts
    edited September 2019
    Machsagain beaten in Race 4 at Pinjarra ended a winning sequence of 13 Giddyup top rated winners.

    Not exactly rocket science but they still have to win

    Must be the new handicapping system.
  • BetonmeBetonme    147 posts
    Drawn wide over a mile, makes for a handicap. 

    curmudgeon, savethegame likes this post.

  • maybesomaybeso    10 posts
    RWWA has released a score card on how the NBM is progressing.

    I find it interesting that of the 8 stated measures of success only 2 are specifically reported on, namely "increase in average field sizes" and "decrease in short price favourites <$1.60". Both stats are worse this year than last year, the average field size dropping from 9.8 to 9.6, and the number of <=$1.60 starting favourites going from 699 to 724. Winning favourites <=$1.60 has gone from 494 to 523.

    No mention of wagering turnover, horse pool numbers, number of trainers, or number of drivers.

    It is far too early to see any stats regarding breeding numbers.

  • JayJayJayJay    5,451 posts
    There was a small (tiny) amount of data that compared turnover between last season and this season since the new model was introduced:

    November -9.1%
    December -25.2%
    January - 10.7%
    February +3.6%
    March +17.4%
    April +7.5%
    May +3.6%
    June -1.4%

    But those percentage figures border on being meaningless unless you know what base they are coming from....you need "real" numbers to draw any valid conclusions. What is disturbing  is that the "Christmas/New Year" figures are on the surface woeful and reflect the smallest numbers of on course patrons and the lowest level of promotion of the Cups that I have ever seen in over 50 years of attendance. The crowd on Pacing Cup Night was an embarrassment....but without knowing what they are being compared with (Presumably, the previous years numbers were boosted by the Interdominion factor?), the numbers in the report card on turnover are pointless.
    Surely there is more detailed data available than has been released on the Report Card.

    VillageKid likes this post.

  • getthechangegetthechange    120 posts

    HWOE - HR comparison

    snapshot comparison as of 1st Sept of first time winners since start of HWOE system

    docx
    docx
    HWOE NR comparison.docx
    18K
  • KTQKTQ    147 posts

    I wish they'd schedule more goddam maiden races. We are sick of having to race our maidens against horses that have won already.
    Yes RWWA, there are 3yo, 3yo fillies, non west bred mares, west bred mares, westbreds and non westbred horses. You need races to accommodate all of them.

    We should not have to leave horses home in the stable for weeks on end because there are no in-class races.

  • curmudgeoncurmudgeon    1,590 posts
    edited September 2019
    KTQ said:


    I wish they'd schedule more goddam maiden races. We are sick of having to race our maidens against horses that have won already.
    Yes RWWA, there are 3yo, 3yo fillies, non west bred mares, west bred mares, westbreds and non westbred horses. You need races to accommodate all of them.

    We should not have to leave horses home in the stable for weeks on end because there are no in-class races.

    The regularTuesday open CO/maiden disappeared at GP with the advent of the HWOE system.....in order to showcase horses of "profile" that would supposedly increase the desire of punters to have a bet.... result.....more often than not seven horse fields on seven race cards for elevated but undeserved stakes..... That went well...... GP is the only track in Australasia that doesn't run maiden class races.

  • GlenGlen    36 posts
    KTQ said:


    I wish they'd schedule more goddam maiden races. We are sick of having to race our maidens against
    horses that have won already.
    Totally agree that there should be more maiden races but once you have won that maiden you will also be racing out of your class all the way through your career with this system that is in place
    Yes RWWA, there are 3yo, 3yo fillies, non west bred mares, west bred mares, westbreds and non westbred horses. You need races to accommodate all of them.

    We should not have to leave horses home in the stable for weeks on end because there are no in-class races.


  • GlenGlen    36 posts
    Sorry KTQ, not sure what happened then but was trying to say that I agree that there should be more maiden races but also unfortunately once you have won a maiden you will be racing out of your class for the rest of your career with the system in place unfortunately
  • BetonmeBetonme    147 posts
    Seems like a lack of horses of late, looking at Pinjarra fields on Monday, they must have gone close to canning the meeting?
  • curmudgeoncurmudgeon    1,590 posts
    edited September 2019
    Betonme said:

    Seems like a lack of horses of late, looking at Pinjarra fields on Monday, they must have gone close to canning the meeting?

    The reality vs fantasy of the one directional penalty based HWOE system is well illustrated by the Sunday/monday/tue juxtaposition of fields. 
    Kellerberrin had no problem with field sizes and races included horses searching for every dollar through the community bands before they go to the provincial and "prime" groupings. Completely at odds with the stated objectives of the HWOE system....in terms of being beneficial to lower strata horses.
    Unequivocal top down field selection, GPPBD and RBD are disasters for community meetings.

    JayJay, TrackBias likes this post.

  • ChariotsonfireChariotsonfire    1,828 posts
    Not directly related to handicapping but did a comparison of meetings between Vic and WA this week.

    Kilmore Cup meeting tomorrow night 10 races total stakes $196,000 (including Kilmore Cup $80k).
    Melton Saturday night 8 races with total stakes of $61,000.

    GP Friday night 10 races for  $199,500 (feature race $30,000).

    Average stakes Vic $14,270, WA $19,950.


  • savethegamesavethegame    1,640 posts
    .W.A, harness never been a problem with the size of the pie.Unfortunate that theres only a few getting big slices,when its cut up.which will eventually affect the numbers that are trying to make a living from the industry.
  • curmudgeoncurmudgeon    1,590 posts
    I don't get the point of your comparison. Comparing a Victorian Country cup meeting and a watered down Metro stakemoney meeting at Melton with an average GP Metro doesn't stack up to any conclusion other than the provision of a set of whimsical figures by my reckoning.
    Select other dates  or weeks with the entire weeks worth of meetings and stakemoney allocations and the validity of small samples is questionable at the very least. For example the meeting at Melton on the 14th Sept included their "Homegrown" finals and offered close to 300K largely for Victorian bred horses. Any comparison with GP that week would falsely blow WA out of the water.
  • sonnysonny    657 posts
    Isn't cheaper training rates in Perth??
  • ChariotsonfireChariotsonfire    1,828 posts
    I am not surprised that you came over the top Curmudgeon.

    The Melton meeting is still a prime metro meeting with 2 X $4500 races and 2 x $7000 races.

    The point is WA iss till punching above its weight stake money wise without selling the farm like NSW.

    Unfortunately that may still happen here post sale of the TAB.
  • Kane_26Kane_26    88 posts
    They also have on average 5 more meetings a week then W.A and very rarely race a meeting that’s all R class like Kellerberrin and Wagin. It’s very easy to make statistics suit your story!
  • ChariotsonfireChariotsonfire    1,828 posts
    If you want to compare apples with apples we will go back one week.

    GP 20th Sep 10 races $210.5k (Feature Race $50k).

    Melton 21 Sep 10 races $164k (Feature Race $30k).

    Do your best to find some negativity in those figures boys.
  • Kane_26Kane_26    88 posts
    You could also say tonight’s COUNTRY meeting at Kilmore carries multiple $10k races along with an $80k cup which is $30k more then any of the country cups in W.A. I suppose it just depends on what you want to believe to suit your argument hey Chariots!
  • ChariotsonfireChariotsonfire    1,828 posts
    You know very well that the Kilmore Cup Meeting is Victoria's equivalent of a metro meeting this week.
  • curmudgeoncurmudgeon    1,590 posts
    edited September 2019
    GP 20th    85 horses....10 races
    Melton 21st....90 horses.....10 races

    GP 13th ....87 horses...9 races
    Melton 14th...115 horses...11 races

    Why is it so @ ineligible HWOE < 20 K  RBD ?
  • curmudgeoncurmudgeon    1,590 posts
    edited September 2019

    You know very well that the Kilmore Cup Meeting is Victoria's equivalent of a metro meeting this week.

    Yet you want to include Saturdays Melton meeting in a metro comparison with GP friday ....c'mon Chariots....you can't have your cake and eat it too.

  • JayJayJayJay    5,451 posts

    From HRV Annual report: National Ratings Handicapping System:

    The first three months of the new system yielded the following results:

    • 19 more races this year than last (976 vs 957, or a 1.9% increase)
    • Average field size is 8.47 this year compared to 8.35 last year
    • 26 fewer races with seven or fewer starters (249 s 275, or 9.5% decrease)
    • 42 fewer races with $1.5 favourite or shorter (233 vs 275, or 15.2% decrease)

    Gilgamesh, VillageKid likes this post.

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,215 posts
    edited October 2019
    Just browsing early bookmakers corporate odds for tonight, ten races and nine odds on favourite's, only race not an odds on fave, the Mount Eden.

    Chicago Bull if still running and in dominant form could've provided a clean sweep of ten odds on pop's out of ten.

    TrackBias, VillageKid likes this post.

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