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New Handicapping System for the Trots

Harness & Greyhounds

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  • curmudgeoncurmudgeon    2,417 posts

    Just browsing early bookmakers corporate odds for tonight, ten races and nine odds on favourite's, only race not an odds on fave, the Mount Eden.

    Chicago Bull if still running and in dominant form could've provided a clean sweep of ten odds on pop's out of ten.

    ....and still no PBD HWOE .....just the one split random ersatz PBD......the GPPBD thingy. You can lead a NBM to water etc etc

    VillageKid likes this post.

  • JayJayJayJay    7,630 posts
    The embers are glowing, the stradivarius is fully tuned........Has Nero climbed his tower to observe the conflagration?

    VillageKid likes this post.

  • freodockersfreodockers    2,667 posts
    Hello fellas from Mumbai.
    Are we to be surprised odds ons at GP on a Friday night.
    Just happy I can’t find a TAB over here. Keep me from wasting my hard earned.
    Roughie for the night jewelinhereye last race. I will be devastated if it gets up as I have backed it last couple and was just going to keep backing it til it came in.
  • curmudgeoncurmudgeon    2,417 posts
    http://www.harness.org.au/media-room/news-article/?news_id=41711

    Actual data makes the RBD vs PBD rationale a little clearer.

    JayJay, VillageKid likes this post.

  • freodockersfreodockers    2,667 posts
    Interesting read all about increased odds to increase turnover direct correlation according to the article.
    Just got me stuffed why the industry still allows high priced imports to continue which creates so many short priced winners. That combined with what’s happened with the racing industry this week, might be a couple of good points to stop imports all together.

    curmudgeon likes this post.

  • aussiebattleraussiebattler    277 posts
    What are people’s views on the Field selection criteria released today for community meetings ,how would it have changed the landscape of last weekends kellerberrin meeting ,does it include the cup race ,is it enough to revive the declining community club fields ,reason fields were short could include but not limited to the following ,the choice to not compete against big stables with quality horses ,narrogin being on the previous night (meetings too close together) and the high temperature forecast for the day meeting .programming for the pool of horses available maybe needed  tweaking 
    CWHRC do a fantastic job Let’s hope it is well supported into the future 
  • ChandonChandon    24 posts
    edited October 2019

    Interesting read all about increased odds to increase turnover direct correlation according to the article.
    Just got me stuffed why the industry still allows high priced imports to continue which creates so many short priced winners. That combined with what’s happened with the racing industry this week, might be a couple of good points to stop imports all together.

    A short priced winner is better than a long priced loser. Plenty of them around and they're what is dragging the industry down, nobody wants to punt on 20 start maidens.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited October 2019
    Must admit even though I can get stuck into the amount of odds on pops, from a novelty betting view some dividends pay extremely well, even with the odds on fave winning, and if your happy to risk and it gets rolled, and you get the collect, even better.

    For the novelty trifecta/first four player, the cup is half full, there's value to be found. Even if their basically straight down the line - you've still gotta get it and even if paying just $20 to $50, still ok and some will pay into the $100s and occasionally $1000's when big outsiders roll into 2nd, 3rd, or 4th.

    The other thing is some of those odds onnies are way too short and a bit risky, not all of them win.
  • curmudgeoncurmudgeon    2,417 posts
    edited October 2019
    Chandon said:

    Interesting read all about increased odds to increase turnover direct correlation according to the article.
    Just got me stuffed why the industry still allows high priced imports to continue which creates so many short priced winners. That combined with what’s happened with the racing industry this week, might be a couple of good points to stop imports all together.

    A short priced winner is better than a long priced loser. Plenty of them around and they're what is dragging the industry down, nobody wants to punt on 20 start maidens.
    Simplistic argument and assertion ....and a supercilious one at that. Heard plenty of them....brain dead sloganisms. 

     
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited October 2019
    And that silly one "you can't eat value"...if hear that one more time...or what about "Don't run upstairs or back on odds on favourite's" haha that's been around awhile.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited October 2019
    Curmudgeon think your in the "odds on look on" camp.

    The sayings in racing, there's a few good ones, but that other balderdash one that's gained momentum in the last few years, the ultimate..."just wins"...what by a nose ?

    curmudgeon likes this post.

  • ChariotsonfireChariotsonfire    2,829 posts
    @TheTrotsComAu  would be nice to be able run my 3yo’s against 3yo’s and not have to run three wide in track record time this new points system is a joke and one of the reasons why I’m fed up with the sport , need suitable lead up races for derby @mickstanley80

    The above quote from Rob Watson on the National Handicapping System.
  • savethegamesavethegame    2,788 posts
    Why did he have to run three-wide

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  • aussiebattleraussiebattler    277 posts

    @TheTrotsComAu  would be nice to be able run my 3yo’s against 3yo’s and not have to run three wide in track record time this new points system is a joke and one of the reasons why I’m fed up with the sport , need suitable lead up races for derby @mickstanley80


    The above quote from Rob Watson on the National Handicapping System.

    Agree the transition and matrix of National handicapping system doesn’t seem right it I think it should be more like this 
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  • aussiebattleraussiebattler    277 posts
    This is a comparison of a couple of horses I looked at the other day the lower points horse won 2 m class races last year the other is one of my own horses 
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  • aussiebattleraussiebattler    277 posts
    Dropping -2 points in metro races for 6th -12th is worse than the drop back rule points value for wins is currently too low it should be -1 point across the board and excluding group races 
  • getthechangegetthechange    310 posts

    Dropping -2 points in metro races for 6th -12th is worse than the drop back rule points value for wins is currently too low it should be -1 point across the board and excluding group races 



    there are quite a few things I don't like about the NR - dropping two points for racing in the best fields for metro stakes is one of them - would probably go further and have no points drop for races over $40,000

  • aussiebattleraussiebattler    277 posts

    Dropping -2 points in metro races for 6th -12th is worse than the drop back rule points value for wins is currently too low it should be -1 point across the board and excluding group races 



    there are quite a few things I don't like about the NR - dropping two points for racing in the best fields for metro stakes is one of them - would probably go further and have no points drop for races over $40,000


    That’s easy to adjust and I would agree with you on that (jeez something we can agree on that hasn’t happened too often lol )


  • aussiebattleraussiebattler    277 posts
    On the 16th November it will be 12 months since the introduction of the NBM HWOE system 
    Summing up the last 12 months what’s the good the bad the ugly for you ?
    For me in the last 12 months 
    The Good won a cup race (50/50 on this one though as it reduced opportunities)
    The Bad still doesn’t seem like for like racing, still not a fan of the NBM CRS or programmed races available ,still finding it hard to place horses where they are going to be competitive ,disappointed that 0 industry forums have been run to discuss concerns ,disappointed that industry groups that were tasked with taking concerns from the industry further have gone silent ,disillusioned that the HRA model seems no better 
    The Ugly would be the uncertain future of the industry ,has it taken a step forward or ten steps back what sort of position is the industry in now compared to this time last year Would be nice to know ?

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  • AbbysAceAbbysAce    560 posts
    I've had horses since 1990 but wont be purchasing any under the HWOE system, to hard to get your purchase price back.

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  • JayJayJayJay    7,630 posts
    The indication from General Manager Mills on radio this morning is that HWOE is here to stay, they are staying the regularly extended trial journey and that the new business model has Harness Racing "no worse off, no better off" than before. Has anyone seen any actual turnover data....or horse population numbers etc etc?

    What a remarkable scenario we are faced with ..........your home garden is almost dead, withering on the vine so to speak, so commendably, you come up with a new plan, you head off to your local hardware and  garden centre, spend a pile of money on a new plan, you spend 12 months tending your garden, modifying your plan, pulling a few weeds out, spraying a bit of pesticide around to exterminate or discourage any encroaching pests, employing new upwardly social birds to tweet sweet tunes in your garden  to highlight your best plants, but sadly, many of your best plants shift to the block next door or even to another continent leaving you with fewer attractions in your garden, passersby show even less interest in your garden than before having become bored with old favorites that always provide a miserly return of just 1.04 flowers or two each week.....undeterred, you soldier on....give it 3 months, give it 6 months, give it 12 months....oh look, some friends over east have also reviewed their gardening techniques, well, we better wait and see how their plan works out....but sadly the garden is still in poor shape, possibly even worse off than before, some old friends are not visiting your garden any more....some are even complaining about the state of your garden but just ignore them, they will go away and they are not suitably qualified to comment anyway, they are just mindless whinging minions, smile at them and move on, they will give up over time......you even try selling off some old plants but you do your shirt each time, it is a financial money pit......but hey, if it was good enough for Monty Python to declare "It's a mere flesh wound", nothing to worry about, lets just keep on with the new plan, until all the plants are dead and we call in the brick pavers.....we could always shore up our situation by turning it into a parking lot....with apologies to Joni Mitchell......and John Cleese. Still, on the plus side, more time on our hands to go to the casino......... or play pretend racing games, betting on fake cyberspace horses on Phone Apps, all part of the master plan to save your garden.
  • Mills is simply a puppet with others pulling her strings.
    what we do need to get rid of is the RBD and bring back PBD
    That would be a good start.

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  • aussiebattleraussiebattler    277 posts
    JayJay said:

    The indication from General Manager Mills on radio this morning is that HWOE is here to stay, they are staying the regularly extended trial journey and that the new business model has Harness Racing "no worse off, no better off" than before. Has anyone seen any actual turnover data....or horse population numbers etc etc?

    What a remarkable scenario we are faced with ..........your home garden is almost dead, withering on the vine so to speak, so commendably, you come up with a new plan, you head off to your local hardware and  garden centre, spend a pile of money on a new plan, you spend 12 months tending your garden, modifying your plan, pulling a few weeds out, spraying a bit of pesticide around to exterminate or discourage any encroaching pests, employing new upwardly social birds to tweet sweet tunes in your garden  to highlight your best plants, but sadly, many of your best plants shift to the block next door or even to another continent leaving you with fewer attractions in your garden, passersby show even less interest in your garden than before having become bored with old favorites that always provide a miserly return of just 1.04 flowers or two each week.....undeterred, you soldier on....give it 3 months, give it 6 months, give it 12 months....oh look, some friends over east have also reviewed their gardening techniques, well, we better wait and see how their plan works out....but sadly the garden is still in poor shape, possibly even worse off than before, some old friends are not visiting your garden any more....some are even complaining about the state of your garden but just ignore them, they will go away and they are not suitably qualified to comment anyway, they are just mindless whinging minions, smile at them and move on, they will give up over time......you even try selling off some old plants but you do your shirt each time, it is a financial money pit......but hey, if it was good enough for Monty Python to declare "It's a mere flesh wound", nothing to worry about, lets just keep on with the new plan, until all the plants are dead and we call in the brick pavers.....we could always shore up our situation by turning it into a parking lot....with apologies to Joni Mitchell......and John Cleese. Still, on the plus side, more time on our hands to go to the casino......... or play pretend racing games, betting on fake cyberspace horses on Phone Apps, all part of the master plan to save your garden.
    haha good one JayJay I have a story simular ,my fishpond was leaking but water was crystal clear so I ripped out all the plants moved all the rocks relocated all the fish so I could re-do the liner ,put the new liner back in replaced all the rocks put in some new plants little fish went back in but the pond went green ,I thought must have done something wrong so I decided to give it a treatment for the algea failed to do enough research over treated it and killed the little fish and pond is still green after I had made this error did some more research and found I needed to put the same amount of plant life back into the pond to filter out the crap ie the 2/3 of the life of the eco system needs to be there for the little fish to survive and for the water to clear up

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  • savethegamesavethegame    2,788 posts
    The three codes will as I see it, there t/.over  will start to drop alarming due to welfare recipients,being issued with cashless cards to receive only 20% of the benefit.in cash, anyone who goes into tabs will know what I am talking about its in the kimberleys -----eastern goldfields,eventual everywhere.,there was loopholes in the system in the trial stage that are quickly  been eradicated.

    Does not seem important to the government anymore how many people are employed in the codes.
    No hcp system.will stem the flow...of people leaving the industry,,and the % of trainers that taste success in the last ten years Australia wide that  win, a race on a yearly base is  approx.50% and drivers is about 40%

    2008-09  trainers 4,315-----won a race--------2,153      2008-09  drivers 2961---- won a race 1294
    2014-15  trainers 3,684-----won a race--------1,785      2014-15  drivers 2581---  won a race  990
    2018-19  trainers  3,006---  won a race------- 1,552      2018-19  drivers 2054 --- won a race  809

    Could be wrong as I see it w.a  is the state that allows  the best return on horse numbers about 20% more then other states everyhorse approx. works out on numbers about $1200----compared to w.a which is $1500, not privy to  quite few things-----what happend to the million which we don't blast on one race  inters, has that gone across the board.? about 4% of total stakes

    Seems going through numbers horses in every state start approx 12.5 times a year 
    W.A. pie  is bigger enough  but said it before  4-6 trainers getting big slices & 6-8 drivers.

    Roughly 25mil;  in stakes four  trainers got approx. 6.8 mil. about 27% 2018-19

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  • JayJayJayJay    7,630 posts
    Every time my old horse Smackwater Jack wins or runs 2nd in SA, which is very often since I "gave" him away, I wince....very, very happy for the new owner....but I do wince.....a lot. Couldn't earn a sausage over here in the system that "prolongs a horses racing life", he was a money pit ......and no doubt, the standard is lower.....but considering they race for peanuts and ribbons, the $22k he has earned (about 10 times his sale price) does indeed make me wince. His actions say an awful lot more than my endless harping that falls on the ears of those who don't want to and won't ever listen to reason.

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  • curmudgeoncurmudgeon    2,417 posts
    Not to worry JJ.....you only have another 6.75 years left to watch him (7 y/o) continue to rack up a percentage like the 66.6 % of 1st or 2nd placings per overall SA starts( 10/15) that he has under his belt now. 
    That compared to the 4 thirds at Wagin x 2 Narrogin x1 and Northam x1 out of his final 30 odd starts in WA .
    Better buy him back quick while he is in form and can get a start in a RBD LT $85 K fri race or hope more than 6 races stand up numbers wise at GP "Prime " Tuesday.
    Sorry to have to inform you of this but as a NR 64 he can win the same class race he won tonight next start...albeit from a more difficult barrier under the PBD NR system " wince". 

  • JayJayJayJay    7,630 posts
    Yes, they haven't picked up on the  PBD Group garbage that we have here in a limited number of races....funny that, the 5 mobile races at Pirie tonight were all straight PBD based on NR or LTE, no curls or twists or groupings nonsense that are actual RBD's in disguise.... the only RBD on the card was the stand....
  • getthechangegetthechange    310 posts
    JayJay said:

    Every time my old horse Smackwater Jack wins or runs 2nd in SA, which is very often since I "gave" him away, I wince....very, very happy for the new owner....but I do wince.....a lot. Couldn't earn a sausage over here in the system that "prolongs a horses racing life", he was a money pit ......and no doubt, the standard is lower.....but considering they race for peanuts and ribbons, the $22k he has earned (about 10 times his sale price) does indeed make me wince. His actions say an awful lot more than my endless harping that falls on the ears of those who don't want to and won't ever listen to reason.



    you are comparing two different systems that transitioned at different times using different but similar transition tables

    when WA transitioned Smackwater Jack was an M1/C5 and he transitioned at the lesser of the table and his figure if the system had been introduced  retrospectively - as an M1/C5 the highest he could get was HWOE $45,000 but his retrospective figure was $41,366 so that became his figure

    If the NR had been introduced at the same time then Smackwater Jack would have transitioned at a NR of 75

    When the NR cane into being in May Smackwater Jack hadn't won for over 20 starts and had dropped to a M1/C3 and under NR he transitioned at NR 60

    If WA had transitioned in May he would have as a M1/C3 transitioned in WA as HWOE $35k and not $41,366

    By the time Smackwater Jack started in SA his NR had fallen to a ridiculous NR 50 the same figure that 3yo and older horses start at when having their first start so it is hardly surprising that he is winning.

    With your refusal to use the WA system to drop down in class via the L5$LT races and your "thorough' research of the NR you should have worked out that he would be dropping back on lesser horses and either kept him or leased him - like aussie I think the NR matrix is flawed

    Unlike WA the lesser horses aren't protected in the NR system and horses can freefall back on top of them making their task harder - that is why there are only limited drop backs in the HWOE part of the WA system

    re "preference to" clauses - these clauses ae to ensure the higher HWOE horse doesn't miss a start by a lower HWOE getting into the race

    eg two horses one with HWOE of $4,000 and the other with HWOE of $8,000 enter for a HWOE LT$12,000 race and the HWOE $4,000 also enters for a HWOE LT$6,000 on the program

    The $8,000 horse is ineligible for the HWOE LT $6,000 but the $4,000 horse is eligible for both - the "preference to" clause ensures that he cant jump a class at the expense of the horse in the higher class

    re grouped pref draw - effectively it is pretty much the same as pref draw on C or M under the MCR system

    there is an explanation on page 3 of the set/oct HWA magazine or page 4 of the racing policies in the Nov/Dec HWA magazine

    online at www.rwwa.com.au/media-centre/publications/

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  • getthechangegetthechange    310 posts

    Dropping -2 points in metro races for 6th -12th is worse than the drop back rule points value for wins is currently too low it should be -1 point across the board and excluding group races 



    there are quite a few things I don't like about the NR - dropping two points for racing in the best fields for metro stakes is one of them - would probably go further and have no points drop for races over $40,000


    That’s easy to adjust and I would agree with you on that (jeez something we can agree on that hasn’t happened too often lol )




    the $15,000 - 50,000 in this doesn't make sense to me


    races up to $2,500 get 2 points for winning and 0 minus points

    2501-4999  get three points and one point for 2nd - one minus point for 6th to last - three 6th/last to cancel out the win

    5000 - 8499 get four points and one point for 2nd - one minus point for 6th to last - four 6th to last to cancel out the win

    8500 - 14999 get five points and one point for 2nd - one minus point for 6th to last- five 6th to last to cancel out the win

    15000 - 50,000 get six points for 1st - 2 points for 2nd - 1 point for 3rd - two minus points for 6th to last - takes three 6th to last to cancel out the win

    to be consistent it should take at least six starts to cancel out the 15,000 - 50,000 win



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