In this Discussion
- 2lifetimewinners June 2020
- AbbysAce October 2023
- angelarobinson October 2023
- Arapaho February 2021
- aussiebattler October 2023
- Betonme March 2021
- Browny123 January 2021
- Cant_Refuse October 2023
- capgun March 2021
- Chandon October 2019
- Chariotsonfire April 2023
- Chopchop43 October 2023
- cisco March 2021
- curmudgeon March 2022
- freodockers April 2023
- G-Mac March 2022
- Gepetto February 2019
- getthechange October 2023
- Gilgamesh October 2023
- Glen September 2019
- Ivorytrunkey February 2019
- Ivorytrunkey86 October 2023
- JayJay October 2023
- JimmyPop February 2021
- jum April 2023
- Kane_26 September 2019
- KTQ March 2021
- lick February 2021
- LightningJake October 2023
- luap February 2019
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- maybeso March 2021
- michael March 2022
- Moonraker May 2019
- MorganJames December 2018
- Offthebit August 2019
- Orangecrush August 2019
- PackedMetalPanda October 2023
- PictureSon1973 April 2023
- Rex March 2022
- Ridersonthestorm33 October 2019
- Rocket_Reign October 2023
- rooster321 March 2021
- Royboy February 2021
- savethegame October 2023
- sonny April 2023
- Toepuntit December 2019
- VillageKid March 2021
- westerncat March 2021
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Comments
VillageKid likes this post.
VillageKid likes this post.
Are we to be surprised odds ons at GP on a Friday night.
Just happy I can’t find a TAB over here. Keep me from wasting my hard earned.
Roughie for the night jewelinhereye last race. I will be devastated if it gets up as I have backed it last couple and was just going to keep backing it til it came in.
JayJay, VillageKid likes this post.
Just got me stuffed why the industry still allows high priced imports to continue which creates so many short priced winners. That combined with what’s happened with the racing industry this week, might be a couple of good points to stop imports all together.
curmudgeon likes this post.
Betonme, Chariotsonfire, savethegame, curmudgeon likes this post.
For the novelty trifecta/first four player, the cup is half full, there's value to be found. Even if their basically straight down the line - you've still gotta get it and even if paying just $20 to $50, still ok and some will pay into the $100s and occasionally $1000's when big outsiders roll into 2nd, 3rd, or 4th.
The other thing is some of those odds onnies are way too short and a bit risky, not all of them win.
The sayings in racing, there's a few good ones, but that other balderdash one that's gained momentum in the last few years, the ultimate..."just wins"...what by a nose ?
curmudgeon likes this post.
The above quote from Rob Watson on the National Handicapping System.
curmudgeon, JimmyPop likes this post.
there are quite a few things I don't like about the NR - dropping two points for racing in the best fields for metro stakes is one of them - would probably go further and have no points drop for races over $40,000
TrackBias, curmudgeon, Gilgamesh likes this post.
TrackBias likes this post.
savethegame, curmudgeon, VillageKid, aussiebattler, TrackBias, Offthebit, Glen likes this post.
VillageKid, TrackBias, Gilgamesh likes this post.
curmudgeon, savethegame likes this post.
curmudgeon, freodockers likes this post.
curmudgeon, TrackBias, Gilgamesh likes this post.
you are comparing two different systems that transitioned at different times using different but similar transition tables
when WA transitioned Smackwater Jack was an M1/C5 and he transitioned at the lesser of the table and his figure if the system had been introduced retrospectively - as an M1/C5 the highest he could get was HWOE $45,000 but his retrospective figure was $41,366 so that became his figure
If the NR had been introduced at the same time then Smackwater Jack would have transitioned at a NR of 75
When the NR cane into being in May Smackwater Jack hadn't won for over 20 starts and had dropped to a M1/C3 and under NR he transitioned at NR 60
If WA had transitioned in May he would have as a M1/C3 transitioned in WA as HWOE $35k and not $41,366
By the time Smackwater Jack started in SA his NR had fallen to a ridiculous NR 50 the same figure that 3yo and older horses start at when having their first start so it is hardly surprising that he is winning.
With your refusal to use the WA system to drop down in class via the L5$LT races and your "thorough' research of the NR you should have worked out that he would be dropping back on lesser horses and either kept him or leased him - like aussie I think the NR matrix is flawed
Unlike WA the lesser horses aren't protected in the NR system and horses can freefall back on top of them making their task harder - that is why there are only limited drop backs in the HWOE part of the WA system
re "preference to" clauses - these clauses ae to ensure the higher HWOE horse doesn't miss a start by a lower HWOE getting into the race
eg two horses one with HWOE of $4,000 and the other with HWOE of $8,000 enter for a HWOE LT$12,000 race and the HWOE $4,000 also enters for a HWOE LT$6,000 on the program
The $8,000 horse is ineligible for the HWOE LT $6,000 but the $4,000 horse is eligible for both - the "preference to" clause ensures that he cant jump a class at the expense of the horse in the higher class
re grouped pref draw - effectively it is pretty much the same as pref draw on C or M under the MCR system
there is an explanation on page 3 of the set/oct HWA magazine or page 4 of the racing policies in the Nov/Dec HWA magazine
online at www.rwwa.com.au/media-centre/publications/
TrackBias dislikes this post.
the $15,000 - 50,000 in this doesn't make sense to me
races up to $2,500 get 2 points for winning and 0 minus points
2501-4999 get three points and one point for 2nd - one minus point for 6th to last - three 6th/last to cancel out the win
5000 - 8499 get four points and one point for 2nd - one minus point for 6th to last - four 6th to last to cancel out the win
8500 - 14999 get five points and one point for 2nd - one minus point for 6th to last- five 6th to last to cancel out the win
15000 - 50,000 get six points for 1st - 2 points for 2nd - 1 point for 3rd - two minus points for 6th to last - takes three 6th to last to cancel out the win
to be consistent it should take at least six starts to cancel out the 15,000 - 50,000 win