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New Handicapping System for the Trots

Harness & Greyhounds

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  • JayJayJayJay    7,628 posts
    Ridiculous statement.......If the worst players in the AFL couldn't afford to eat, buy boots or afford the bus fare to attend training, you wouldn't have a team, you wouldn't have a competition and you wouldn't have an industry.
  • Rocket_ReignRocket_Reign    841 posts

    As I stated Rocket many will disagree but that is why they use weights in the Thoroughbreds.


    A mixture of the two eg Melbourne Cup and Cox Plate has borne the test of time with constant increases in turnover.



    We’re not the thoroughbreds, harness racing has a heavy leaders bias you won’t stop it find the leader find the winner most times therefor short priced favourites, but like I said before I don’t mind it from a punting perspective
  • Rocket_ReignRocket_Reign    841 posts
    JayJay said:

    Ridiculous statement.......If the worst players in the AFL couldn't afford to eat, buy boots or afford the bus fare to attend training, you wouldn't have a team, you wouldn't have a competition and you wouldn't have an industry.




    They get paid enough to live off it and the players that aren’t good enough don’t play it’s as simple as that. They find another profession and play footy on the side
  • MarkovinaMarkovina    2,888 posts
    It is allright to criticise - but how do the so called  experts solve the solution  re handicapping to the stack $1.12 favourites - at tracks like Albany and Narrogin 

    To me there is no solution - one simple thing happened/changed - up to 4-5 years ago - the big stables Hall Howlett  DeCampo and now Lewis - they didnt bother sending their horses to those tracks - so low classed horses raced against low classed  horses 

    Now those stables do send horses their - and start $1.12 and dominate - id love to know a handicapping system to stop it - there isnt one 
  • maybesomaybeso    84 posts

    There have been many on here calling for PBDs since HWOE came into place and I am surprised that their views are not being expressed now that they are being removed.


    I have always been of the belief that PBDs are essential to provide even fields and competitive racing but the key was always going to be the conditions used to determine the barrier draws.

    $L3 appears to be the main contention and this knee jerk reaction has thrown the baby out with the bath water.

    Oh well back to a plethora of $1.20 or less favourites and miserly exotic dividends for punters to get their teeth into.

    I am being provocative here and will no doubt draw scathing criticism but what the participants want is not always good for the industry.
    There is a time and place for PBD and RBD. Maidens should always be RBD, as should group races. Some single class races could be mixed PBD and RBD, but in my opinion mixed class fields should be predominately PBD on class/ HWOE. A maiden should never draw outside a race winner in a class 1/3 or 4 for example.

    Rocket_Reign, Gilgamesh, Royboy likes this post.

  • MarkovinaMarkovina    2,888 posts
    The Claimers  interstate ( pity we havent got them here ) but they allways draw on their sales price 

    If you have one in at 2k - you will draw gate 1 every day of the week - and likewise if you have one in at 15k - you will draw gate 7 or whatever is outside of the front row 
  • Rocket_ReignRocket_Reign    841 posts
    Markovina said:

    The Claimers  interstate ( pity we havent got them here ) but they allways draw on their sales price 


    If you have one in at 2k - you will draw gate 1 every day of the week - and likewise if you have one in at 15k - you will draw gate 7 or whatever is outside of the front row 



    Claimers start back here next week I think it is
  • GilgameshGilgamesh    4,717 posts

    Markovina said:

    The Claimers  interstate ( pity we havent got them here ) but they allways draw on their sales price 


    If you have one in at 2k - you will draw gate 1 every day of the week - and likewise if you have one in at 15k - you will draw gate 7 or whatever is outside of the front row 



    Claimers start back here next week I think it is


    Problem with the claimers last time around there were too many for the top end of the spectrum, no many around looking to have a crack with one in the 15k-50k bracket but would be people looking to claim in the 3k-15k bracket.
  • Rocket_ReignRocket_Reign    841 posts
    Gilgamesh said:

    Markovina said:

    The Claimers  interstate ( pity we havent got them here ) but they allways draw on their sales price 


    If you have one in at 2k - you will draw gate 1 every day of the week - and likewise if you have one in at 15k - you will draw gate 7 or whatever is outside of the front row 



    Claimers start back here next week I think it is


    Problem with the claimers last time around there were too many for the top end of the spectrum, no many around looking to have a crack with one in the 15k-50k bracket but would be people looking to claim in the 3k-15k bracket.



    Think this time it’s something like 2-4 is one race 4-8 is another and 10-40 is the metro

    Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • curmudgeoncurmudgeon    2,417 posts
    The interest in claimers in WA has historically tapered quickly each time they have been tried. The pool of horses never seems large enough to support them long term. In the current climate I can't see any different scenario occurring .... a lot of the claiming type horses have been sold to the eastern states recently and a number of the Tony type claimers have made their way to the US. 
    Tell em they're dreamin.
  • MarkovinaMarkovina    2,888 posts
    No disagree re the size of the pool of horses re Claimers 

     If they bring in the price brackets that RR suggested - like 2-4 k - that brings in a stack of horses - in fact you could have a claiming race at that price  each Albany/Narrogin  meeting - and it would be very well supported - and it would give low class horses an actual chance  to win a race -
  • getthechangegetthechange    310 posts

    Agree that pref draw  on $L3 will produce a lot of anomalies but also think pref draws on HWOE/L and RBD are not the answer as trainers use the pref draws to place their progressive types in favourable draws

    In my opinion If using $L3 then there needs to be a $ level set that allows horses to be placed a couple of times in their last three starts and still be able to draw barrier 1 and the level of that figure should be higher for each stake level

    something like -  $4500 race horses with $L3 less than $1500 could be able to draw barrier 1

    $7,500 race horses with less than $3000 could be able to draw barrier 1

    GPM horses with less than $6,000 could be able to draw barrier 1

    Horses over those levels draw on $L3

    In races that use the HWOE levels those races could also use L plus $L3 ensuring that the higher levels draw less favourably than the lower level horses but those with the same level and above the threshold draw less favourably than those below the threshold

    There are more holes than in this latest system tweak than a swiss cheese ...and they will increase each week.

    Keep it simple.
    Mix Pref draw on HWOE/Level & RBD
    Re-engage the open noms - surely harness racing doesn't have to live in the 50's forever.

    Provide programmed races with transparent defined inclusive conditions that do not hold owners and trainers hostage to a selection dice rolling exercise. People soon get tired of spending money on animals that are essentially out of their control and are the pawns in a process to simplify the existence of other entities.

    Re-examine the engagement with the NR System.
       




    Let us back up the truck and see where things started to go wrong.


    After 10 years of solid growth under RWWA there was one single occurrence where it went pear shaped and the turnover growth was switched off. That was the introduction of single class racing with RBDs to appease the big stables, or at least one, in almost sycophantic fashion.

    RWWA has been tinkering with a remedy ever since without success and we appear to be going around in circles.

    The same amount of stake money is distributed each week and I can't see that apportioning that money to a wider range of participants is necessarily a bad thing but obviously many disagree.

    Rest assured if we do not arrest the turnover decline the industry will suffer long term, particularly if the TAB is ever sold.



    Why should there be a system in place to make sure the prize money is spread around? The worst AFL players don’t get paid as much as the best players don’t see them changing the rules to make life easier for the bad players. Those bad players can strive to be better and earn more money though

    The lovers of pref draws will be pleased to know that most races in WA will be pref draw on $L3 from January 8th

    PBD on HWOE would have been simpler and probably have less anomalies. 

    agree that PBD on HWOE would be simpler and probably have less anomalies but  they don`t reflect current form like $L3

    Having said that I don`t like PBD on $L3 as they are in my opinion too harsh on the average horse like Bolta as mentioned by rocket and also think only three starts raises the issue browny mentioned and also the anomalies you mention

    pref draws on M C R L and HWOE dont reflect current form and trainers place their horses to take advantage of those types of pref draw.- the more horses in the stable the more likely the trainer has a progressive horse that will be able to take advantage of the pref draw

    $L3 will result in anomalies as higher level horses will draw inside lower level horses eg in a level 6/7 there will be some level 7 horses drawing inside level 6 horses 

    to prevent that happening all it would take is to make it pref draw on L with each level in  $L3 order

    my preferred option would be pref draw on L with grouped $L3 or possibly $L5 for each level so that horses can earn some money and still be able to draw barrier 1



  • ArapahoArapaho    222 posts
    Hi all ,New here,but been in this game a long time and would be as passionate as anybody regarding the Standard bred horse and the industry it has formed. 
    Firstly,I would like to commend RWWA for abolishing PD$L3 so early into a trial when clearly it wasn't going to work.
    I am all for pref.draws but under no circumstances should PD$L3 be introduced,not fortnightly,not monthly.
    In the history of Harness Racing, horses have been handicapped by career wins, EG.  2.28
    to 2.27,RO to R1,CO toC1 and under the current system HWOE $0(L1) to HWOE $ under $3000(L2) or HWOE under $6000 (L3) depending on prize money for 1st and so on.
    No horse assessed or classed lower than any other horse in a particular race should have to draw outside that horse purely because it has earnt in its last 3 starts when the other horse is classed higher ,won more races and prize money , or has a higher HWOE, again which is the current Handicapping system.
    HWOE has been introduced to handicap horses into races why not go a step further and use it to handicap horses into barriers seems common sense to me and would be fairer to all not just my horse as most seemed to say.
    Providing RWWA programme the right races all would have a chance to draw good ,again commonsense if you had a L3 HWOE $4484 and you wanted the chance to draw good, you would nominate for a L3/L5 race but if you preferred to race lower class horses ,happy to cop a wider barrier then you would nominate for L1/L3. With luck, you still could draw good as only L3 may nominate for that race.It is simple, especially if you have any idea regarding the placement of your horse. 
    While I believe this is the only way under the current system,
    Random Barriers should be allocated to all maidens as no horses have a HWOE on $.
    All classics,listed and Group races or races over a certain amount of prize money where the best of horses in a particular group meet, every horse should be afforded the chance to prove that he or she is best.
    Fast class or L15 RBD May be programmed every 3 or 4 weeks  to give the highest rated horse a chance to draw on a occasion.
  • MarkovinaMarkovina    2,888 posts
    You have to be fair when you make your comments 

    Now Jay Jay isnt happy with some of the handicapping aspects - and he probably makes good points 

    However if you look at Busso tonight ( and i was looking at backing at Captain Proud because it is so honest ) - but if you look at that field - The Situation won 2 races easily off the front - Budd  Sidewinder ran in both those 2 races - off 20 metres and got beaten easily 

    Yet tonight TS is still off the front - and BS is off 20 metres - why aernt they both off 20 metres - thats how it use to work - you got penalised 10 metres for a SS win - so you would have both those 2 horses off 20 and CP off 30 - thats handicapping fairly in my opinion 
  • getthechangegetthechange    310 posts
    Rocket - why spread stake money - definition of handicap
    race or contest in which an artificial advantage is given to the supposedly inferior contestant or an artificial disadvantage is given to the supposedly superior contestant in order to equalise their chances. 
    A wider spread of stake money is necessary to try and stop the drop of trainers which has been  in continual decline for at least 40 years
    while the intention is to spread stake money the owners and trainers of the best horses will still win the most races and the most stake money

    pref draws - in an ideal world all draws would be RBD or pref draw on L or HWOE ( from figures I have done there is little difference in odds on favs in RBD races to those pref draws)
    agree that pref draws on their exact $L3 is cruel but think that Chariots is right and RWWA should have modified them instead of canning them completely
    pref draws on L and $L3 with thresholds could have made them more palatable

    eg $4500 races drawn on L but horses with $L3 LT $1500 go into a draw for the best draws
    $7,500 races drawn on L but  horses with $L3 LT $3,000 go onto a draw for the best draws
    metro stake races drawn on L but horse with $L3 LT $6,000 go into a draw for the best draws

    in each case balance of field drawn on L and $L3

    Pref draw on L and Win $L2 could be used more

    curmudgeon, VillageKid likes this post.

  • freodockersfreodockers    2,667 posts
    It’s ok GTC an extra 15 horses will be back in work tomorrow apparently.
    Maybe they could have just improved their performance too instead of turning them out.
    Boats from NZ will be busy next 6 months.

    curmudgeon, Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • Rocket_ReignRocket_Reign    841 posts

    It’s ok GTC an extra 15 horses will be back in work tomorrow apparently.
    Maybe they could have just improved their performance too instead of turning them out.
    Boats from NZ will be busy next 6 months.




    For someone that adds nothing to the industry you sure do have a lot to say

    Pinballwizard likes this post.

  • freodockersfreodockers    2,667 posts
    Very true Rocket.
    BTW I do have a bet every now and then.
  • curmudgeoncurmudgeon    2,417 posts

    Rocket - why spread stake money - definition of handicap

    race or contest in which an artificial advantage is given to the supposedly inferior contestant or an artificial disadvantage is given to the supposedly superior contestant in order to equalise their chances. 
    A wider spread of stake money is necessary to try and stop the drop of trainers which has been  in continual decline for at least 40 years
    while the intention is to spread stake money the owners and trainers of the best horses will still win the most races and the most stake money

    pref draws - in an ideal world all draws would be RBD or pref draw on L or HWOE ( from figures I have done there is little difference in odds on favs in RBD races to those pref draws)
    agree that pref draws on their exact $L3 is cruel but think that Chariots is right and RWWA should have modified them instead of canning them completely
    pref draws on L and $L3 with thresholds could have made them more palatable

    eg $4500 races drawn on L but horses with $L3 LT $1500 go into a draw for the best draws
    $7,500 races drawn on L but  horses with $L3 LT $3,000 go onto a draw for the best draws
    metro stake races drawn on L but horse with $L3 LT $6,000 go into a draw for the best draws

    in each case balance of field drawn on L and $L3

    Pref draw on L and Win $L2 could be used more
    I agree with your sentiments GTC although I think it would be quickly accepted if the PBD worked on the keep it simple principle and the worst HWOE horse in any level drew the best barrier. Anyone who has difficulty understanding that the handicapping cornerstone is defined by allocating disadvantage to promote competitiveness....in all wagering sports.....is never going to come to terms with that particular worldwide truism.
     
  • AbbysAceAbbysAce    560 posts
    edited January 2021
    Why has TAB radio got an ad repeating playing for Chinese fireworks night on February 19?

    Its 5 weeks away, we have a champion in Chicago Bull racing and a potential one in Magnificent Storm racing TONIGHT, how about getting an ad to air on that?

    Unbelievable really................................


    VillageKid likes this post.

  • ChariotsonfireChariotsonfire    2,829 posts
    Just as a matter of interest (and I don't have a life) I compared the parimutuel turnover for the past two weeks.

    I have taken the first 9 races from last night as there were only 9 races the previous Friday.

    Every sector increased with the exception of Quinellas:

    Win +4.4%
    Place +19.7%
    Quinella -8.1%
    Exacta +8.4%
    Trifecta +34.4%
    First Four +31.8%
    Quaddie +15.2%
    Total Turnover +16.6%

    In all fairness the Trifecta and First Four increases were influenced by Jackpots from Race 2 but you would expect this to be an ongoing by product of the evening of fields.

    Obviously the fixed odds turnover could be vastly different but I do not have access to that information.

    Still a very positive trend that the naysayers would not be interested in.

    Gilgamesh, VillageKid likes this post.

  • sonnysonny    1,053 posts
    Thanks for that Chariots, Interesting that the win% was the least .. Maybe due to short price favs.. 

  • MarkovinaMarkovina    2,888 posts
    Interesting figures Chariots

    Just out of interest - because the industry didnt want the TAB sold - but fixed odds - what % of the turnover goes back to the industry ?

    Because TABTouch they miss out on so much of the market - eg 9pm last night TAB.Com have got all the prices up for Albany - yet TAB Touch have just now got the 1st 2 races . During the week - the Geel trots - 2hrs before the 1st - and they still didnt have their markets up 

    And everyone knows they are allways under the odds - the industry/participants dont want the TAB sold - but when it comes to fixed odds - i think their performance is atrocious - i think that is accurate comment . And no one will criticise them - because they own racing radio dont they - so they are merely puppets 
  • ChariotsonfireChariotsonfire    2,829 posts
    Would have been affected by the late scratching of Bletchley Park.

    Not sure what you are getting at re short priced favourites with only Chicago Bull fitting into that category after the scratching.

    Best turnover was the 4yo race where the RBD gods were very kind.


  • ChariotsonfireChariotsonfire    2,829 posts
    I can't disagree Marko with your comments on fixed odds but RWWA is driven by bottom line profit in this area to maximise return to the industry. Turnover is a secondary consideration and I believe the profit margin to be very strong. Fixed odds margin will always be less than parimutuel but that is the vehicle that the current day punter prefers.
  • GilgameshGilgamesh    4,717 posts

    Just as a matter of interest (and I don't have a life) I compared the parimutuel turnover for the past two weeks.


    I have taken the first 9 races from last night as there were only 9 races the previous Friday.

    Every sector increased with the exception of Quinellas:

    Win +4.4%
    Place +19.7%
    Quinella -8.1%
    Exacta +8.4%
    Trifecta +34.4%
    First Four +31.8%
    Quaddie +15.2%
    Total Turnover +16.6%

    In all fairness the Trifecta and First Four increases were influenced by Jackpots from Race 2 but you would expect this to be an ongoing by product of the evening of fields.

    Obviously the fixed odds turnover could be vastly different but I do not have access to that information.

    Still a very positive trend that the naysayers would not be interested in.

    Unfortunately the naysayers care not for the punters.

    JayJay, VillageKid likes this post.

  • Chopchop43Chopchop43    151 posts
    Gilgamesh said:

    Just as a matter of interest (and I don't have a life) I compared the parimutuel turnover for the past two weeks.


    I have taken the first 9 races from last night as there were only 9 races the previous Friday.

    Every sector increased with the exception of Quinellas:

    Win +4.4%
    Place +19.7%
    Quinella -8.1%
    Exacta +8.4%
    Trifecta +34.4%
    First Four +31.8%
    Quaddie +15.2%
    Total Turnover +16.6%

    In all fairness the Trifecta and First Four increases were influenced by Jackpots from Race 2 but you would expect this to be an ongoing by product of the evening of fields.

    Obviously the fixed odds turnover could be vastly different but I do not have access to that information.

    Still a very positive trend that the naysayers would not be interested in.

    Unfortunately the naysayers care not for the punters.

    it's a 2 way street mate without the punter we don't have an industry , same in regards to the owners/trainers/drivers without them we also don't have an industry, the direction we head towards in regards to what works in this handicapping system whether it be $l3,rbd or pbd on levels has to work for all parties

    VillageKid, curmudgeon, Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • Rocket_ReignRocket_Reign    841 posts
    Gilgamesh said:

    Just as a matter of interest (and I don't have a life) I compared the parimutuel turnover for the past two weeks.


    I have taken the first 9 races from last night as there were only 9 races the previous Friday.

    Every sector increased with the exception of Quinellas:

    Win +4.4%
    Place +19.7%
    Quinella -8.1%
    Exacta +8.4%
    Trifecta +34.4%
    First Four +31.8%
    Quaddie +15.2%
    Total Turnover +16.6%

    In all fairness the Trifecta and First Four increases were influenced by Jackpots from Race 2 but you would expect this to be an ongoing by product of the evening of fields.

    Obviously the fixed odds turnover could be vastly different but I do not have access to that information.

    Still a very positive trend that the naysayers would not be interested in.

    Unfortunately the naysayers care not for the punters.



    Tote figures are so pointless the tote is pretty much dead wouldn’t hold 10% of what goes onto a race compared to fixed odds/ corporates
  • freodockersfreodockers    2,667 posts
    What % of fixed odds corporates goes back to industry Rocket.
    That’s a legit question not a dart btw.
  • Rocket_ReignRocket_Reign    841 posts

    What % of fixed odds corporates goes back to industry Rocket.
    That’s a legit question not a dart btw.




    Yeah I’m not sure I’m not even sure it gets counted towards turnover, my turnover breakdown would be 10% Tab.com 90% corporates and 0% tabtouch and I know plenty of others that are similar
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