New Handicapping System for the TrotsHarness & Greyhounds

JayJay

Tsar Bomb gets in well in the stand Friday Night getting 10m from Courage Tells, Tanaka Eagle and Always Arjay, a handicap special. Like For Like Racing at its best.

curmudgeon

Absolutely ridiculous...so a 34 times winner like Courage Tells ....including 2 wins from his last 5 starts with LTE of $348 K has to give a 7 times winner in Tsar Bomb with a LTE of $45 K a 10m start. You couldn't possibly make this stuff up.

VillageKid

Who has replaced Warren Wishart as the Chief Handicapper I wonder?

Ridersonthestorm33

Has anybody heard about the new handicapping conditions for the rest of the Busselton trotting round ?

Shannon Suvaljko is going back ten metres!

JayJay

Busselton Race 1...Wearing Shades, 12 starts, still a maiden, $1924 in life time earnings, a CO RO off the front, Fight Song 3 wins as juvenile, $24k in stakes but transitioned as a C0/R0 gets 20m, Daniel John 35 wins, an M2 C27 $330k in stakes gets 60m....."Like Versus Like" racing.

VillageKid

I laugh at all this chat on social media from the Eastern States "experts" around the Miracle Mile now worth $1million bucks and how great it is for harness racing to have a race worth that much etc...I could have swore the last 3 Inters at GP were run for $1.1m until the Vics took it back this year and it dropped more than half in value!

Do these "E/S experts" ever look outside their own backyard?

curmudgeon

curmudgeon said:

Absolutely ridiculous...so a 34 times winner like Courage Tells ....including 2 wins from his last 5 starts with LTE of $348 K has to give a 7 times winner in Tsar Bomb with a LTE of $45 K a 10m start. You couldn't possibly make this stuff up.

Looking through this race again it is apparent that the handicaps as written into system can disadvantage the old MO equivalent front line substantially. Horses handicapped off 10m have arrived at their assessment in different fashions and have the option of claims. Drop backs over time have also become a significant factor and can skew the assessment at least until those that are gifted fortuitous assessment win their way back in handicap. eg Courage Tells in this case.Good luck to the connections of this horse....he has been kissed by a fairy in the transition. Given the conditions applicable to the L9 stand races there was no wriggle room or discretionary viewpoint to handicap the race otherwise. In retrospect the handicap band and concessions that allows Courage Tells Tanaka Eagle and Always Arjay to be within 10m of the front are extremely liberal. ie...a HWOE assessment differential of as much as $80K is possible for the loss of only 10m in handicap. In actuality the max differential for 10m in this race is approx HWOE $54 K. ...Carrera Mach/Always Arjay. Thats a lot of dollars per metre. What cannot be denied is that the horses with heavy LTE seem to be thrown into the race in comparison to the front line. 

Markovina

curmudgeon said:

curmudgeon said:

Absolutely ridiculous...so a 34 times winner like Courage Tells ....including 2 wins from his last 5 starts with LTE of $348 K has to give a 7 times winner in Tsar Bomb with a LTE of $45 K a 10m start. You couldn't possibly make this stuff up.

Looking through this race again it is apparent that the handicaps as written into system can disadvantage the old MO equivalent front line substantially. Horses handicapped off 10m have arrived at their assessment in different fashions and have the option of claims. Drop backs over time have also become a significant factor and can skew the assessment at least until those that are gifted fortuitous assessment win their way back in handicap. eg Courage Tells in this case.Good luck to the connections of this horse....he has been kissed by a fairy in the transition. Given the conditions applicable to the L9 stand races there was no wriggle room or discretionary viewpoint to handicap the race otherwise. In retrospect the handicap band and concessions that allows Courage Tells Tanaka Eagle and Always Arjay to be within 10m of the front are extremely liberal. ie...a HWOE assessment differential of as much as $80K is possible for the loss of only 10m in handicap. In actuality the max differential for 10m in this race is approx HWOE $54 K. ...Carrera Mach/Always Arjay. Thats a lot of dollars per metre. What cannot be denied is that the horses with heavy LTE seem to be thrown into the race in comparison to the front line. 

Why cant the Handicapper have DISCRETION

Im not much of a gallops fan -  but ive heard that Greg Carpenter a few times - who does the handicapping and penalties for winning lead up races to the Melb Cup - and he will say this horse won the Caulfield Cup - or Turnbull Stakes or whatever - and i have decided to give it a 1.5kg penalty - he has got the discretion to do that

If you had Warren Wishart back  ( someone who knows the form inside out ) and has integrity ( im not suggesting the current person hasnt - but he is hamstrung - by all these new clauses and rules and whatever ) then in Daniel Johns race - he could say that the CO gets 120 metres from it - and thats his decision - like Carpenter  weighting and re weighting the horses in the Melb Cup

They should get WW back - and give him open license to do all the handicapping - mobiles and all the lot - to get competive racing - not all these 1.12 faves winning - and people whinge - then bad luck - hes got the mantra - for good competitive. racing

Look at the Miracle Mile ( and by the way VK - im sick to death of you relentlessly slagging off every thing thing over East - in fact to use Bob Fultons words - when coaching Manly ( and continually getting slaughtered by the ref ) after one game - he said i couldnt care less if he ( the ref ) got run over by a cement truck ) they allways had the discretion to pick their own field - and one year left out Our Sir Vancelot

curmudgeon

The danger with million dollar races has been pointed out on this forum before. The disparity between the stakemoney spread in a race like that and even normal elevated feature harness race stakes is so huge that to run second and third is quite often the biggest cheque a horse earns in its lifetime. Hence barrier draws become even more vital in tactical decisions ....and the option to forget about making a "race" of it very early on and aim for the best placing if your winning chances seem forlorn out of the gate can lead to pedestrian viewing. The long straight at Menangle is a little bit of insurance ...see ITMQ....but you have to be pretty good if everyone is saving until the top of the lane.

JayJay

RWWA Twitter Feed:

From 1/1/19 the FIXED odds for all harness races will be used to report
the starting price as opposed to the tote price. This more accurately
reflects the market and when displayed in form guides for subsequent
starts is vital information for punters. #waharness

Surely the tote price, which is the price out by the TAB, is the starting price. Smoke and mirrors?

curmudgeon

JayJay said:

RWWA Twitter Feed:

From 1/1/19 the FIXED odds for all harness races will be used to report
the starting price as opposed to the tote price. This more accurately
reflects the market and when displayed in form guides for subsequent
starts is vital information for punters. #waharness

Surely the tote price, which is the price out by the TAB, is the starting price. Smoke and mirrors?

:-?  Off to the gulag for re-education for you shortly JJ .  :D

JayJay

I hope they have a bus to transport me .... I'm getting awful tired of all this. Haven't done any stats at all on this change, don't know the motivation for changing it and whether it will show more or less or the same number of odds on favourites. But I can't see the TAB radio presenter reading out:

Divvies now clear for race 2 on 3,7,10 and 1 at Gloucester Park. 3 Eddy The Neddy $2.60 the win, $1.70  the place etc etc...and the winners official starting price was $3.10  (or $2.20 or whatever the case may be)......Harry High Viz after work in the pub TAB will be thinking he got almightily ripped off or scored a life changing bonus. Would seem to me to be contributing to more punter confusion than already exists with Harry trying to ascertain what the hell he just bet on in the "Level 12 RBD  HWOE $40,000 $L5<$22,000 NE HWOE> $100k NE Last 5 starts in Level 11 NE Concessions" etc etc. Lets add another layer of confusion shall we?

curmudgeon

Ahem.... I had to post this 

;))

savethegame

Every punter that's had a  fixed odds bet has had this happened  to them. go to get on at 3.50 push the button it,then shows your on at 3.10, you pull out of the deal, bingo still shows 3.50 you go again 3.10 appears again ,you pull out again they jump bet the s.p price will be 3.50 that was never available.good for new hcp.system? puts a misty cloud over what price was it.. 

Punters  get totally confused when these a field of eight runners and these a late scratching the tote will honour a third place dividend;;;,where that option disappears on fixed odds, punters get sucked in to a bigger place dividend showing on screen in comparison to the tote because    they are only going to pay 1&2 the place ,, so what happens when they read the divvies out there is no third divvie the place on fixed and we have said the winner started @3.50 you only could get 3.10,but if you backed it on tote for a place you get a collect, someones been told to speed up the closure of trots, your not doing it quick enough, .Vital information going forward, whats vital is whats in your hand.after a race ,,.

JayJay

Leftrightgoodnight
gets a start in 2 of the HWOE <$40k races tonight, gate 7 in race 3
(scratched) over 2130m and gate 10 in race 8 over 1730m....presumably
someone copped a ballot??

Chariotsonfire

Given that JayJay and his trainer have expressed strong opposition to the new HWOE system in a reasonable and measured manner about three weeks ago I started collecting some data on the old class system and since the introduction of HWOE.

The data collected involved the stable earnings of Matthew's team for the two months prior to HWOE and the two months since it was introduced.

Results are:
Class System

Metro 46 starters at an average return of $2,245

Country 41 starters at an average return of $396

HWOE

Metro 30 starters at an average of $2,041

Country 51 starters at an average of $653.

Admittedly the winning double on Friday night helped the HWOE earnings.

Conversely I could have taken license and left out the earnings of dominant trotter Glenferrie Tyconn which started twice under the class system for two wins but has not raced under HWOE. 

The significant factor since HWOE was introduced is random barrier draws and I am confident that a fairly lean run for the stable in the early days of HWOE would have been offset by a significant increase in PBDs.

curmudgeon

Sorry Chariots .....I can't reconcile what you are getting at here. I doubt there would have been enough constants involved to cross reference one period with the other and thus draw conclusions as to whether the handicapping system was in fact an influence at all. All I can see is a comparison of a stables earnings two months prior and two months post the introduction of the HWOE system. ( I detest that abbreviation that much I can hardly bring myself to type it ) Happy to be wrong though.

JayJay

The point is also lost on me, far too kryptic for me to see where you are heading or what you are trying to say but that's not unusual for me, never been any good at that sort of thing.

But wherever it is going, the stats are incorrect......has had 33 metro starters in the time period you refer to post the introduction of the new model for total stake earn of $63,427 making an average $1922 per starter....so please, whatever point you are making, please use accurate data.

Chariotsonfire

Not drawing any conclusions other than there is not a huge discrepancy on earnings based on the number of starters.

Variables will always play a part with barrier draws the main factor.

I am assuming you are correct with the number of metro starters so I must have missed three runners but the total stakes line up fairly closely.

Chariotsonfire

It proves little other than the fact that I don't have a life but I have checked the HWOE figures and still come up with only 30 metro starters from 16th November to 11th January inclusive for total stakes of $61,326.

JayJay

Yes, my data is spot on, I keep it all on a spread sheet.

I would have thought, admittedly based on a fairly small sample with a lot of variables that even an Einstein algorithm couldn't take into account, that there may...repeat may...be some vaguely valid conclusions you could draw.

Firstly a decrease of 28% in Metro starters is not an insignificant drop and impacts on the dollars the stable can earn given the larger metropolitan stakes on offer....and I would consider a drop of 14% (from $2245 earned per metro starter to $1922 per metro starter) to also be a drop worth noting and at least, a discrepancy between past and present that would make any accountants ears prick up. No argument with you on barrier draws which was very well illustrated for the umpteenth time on Freo Cup night.

JayJay

Nov 16: Jaxon Fella $928, Ideal Diamante $200, Brookies Jet $180 (3)

Nov 23: Neighlor $560, Always Arjay $1507 (2)

Nov 30th: Brookies Jet $180, Neighlor $1507, Jaxon fella $504, Smackwater Jack $200 Always Arjay $504 (5)

Dec 7th: Jaxon Fella $200, Always Arjay $560, Neighlor $180, Brookies Jet $180 (4)

Dec14th: Jaxon Fella $180, Neighlor $180 (2)

Dec 21st: Jaxon Fella $180, Q Town Riproaring $180, Neighlor $10,881 (3)

Dec 28th: Neighlor $200, Always Arjay $3348, Jaxon Fella $504, Q Town Riproaring $180 (4)

Jan 4th: Clarenden Hustler $180, Always Arjay $12,090, Brookies Jet $1507 (3)

Jan 11th: Neighlor $12090, Always Arjay $250, Q Town Riproaring $12,090, Jaxon Fella $200, Brookies Jet $180, Clarenden Hustler $180, Charlie El $180 (7)

Total Stakes: $63,427   Total Starters: 33 Average earn per starter: $1922.03

JayJay

Pretty meaningless I know, but my own personal stats comparison between the "old" and the "new" (same time period, 2 months before the change, 2 months after the change):

Before: 12 starters averaging $2814.16

After:    10 starters averaging $2615.80

curmudgeon

Here is how the HWOE affects our little operation.

Under the old system as of this minute we have horses that would be assessed as 

1.                      MO C2 

2.                      3 R1 but now would be RO CO

3.                      3 C1 but now would be RO CO

4.                      R1 CO

Under the New Model .....the following has occurred

1.                    LTE  $41,153    and          HWOE  $14,641 .......ineligible to race at GP Metro as HWOE is less than 20 K. This is despite having been placed previously in MO company in personal times in the low 1.56 bracket. The horse has spelled for an extensive period due to some physical issues it has but is sound and almost ready to resume. It is prudent given his history for him to race for metro stakes as he has been highly competitive previously at that level. Thats a decision that should occur at owner/trainer level not be forced by some arbitrary policy. There is a mechanism to banish horses if they are non competitive.....use it don't pre - empt it.   

2.   Because it won a 3R and $1950 under the new system it is ineligible for a maiden( HWOE $1462) and has to forgo the RO and CO class it was eligible for under the old system. That's a total of approx $6,800 in possible winning stakes before any C class penalty would have been incurred .....gone never to return.

3.  Same as horse 2 ......by winning a 3AO worth $4,550 and incurring new system HWOE $3412 it is ineligible for approx $6800 in stakes it would have been able to win under the old system before a C class penalty would have been imposed.

4. Same except having won an RO and incurred the full winning stake of $1950 as HWOE (it must have been nearly knock off time when that was being transition rated)  he has lost the $4450 of a CO he would otherwise have been able to win before any C class penalty would have been imposed.

So.....without a ball being bowled so to speak....the imposition of the HWOE system has made our team of 4 ineligible to race for winning stakes in the immediate term of some $28K in the lowest assessed races on any C or M class meeting they could have attended.

This is fact ....not some bullshiit fairy tale.

AND

it is what occurs before you open the door to the inequities inherent in the prematurely launched HWOE system itself

2lifetimewinners

Curmudgeon

I know a leading trainer is trying to put together a consortium from all parts of the industry to go to RWWA and the Bosses to discuss this.

I think this is a perfect example of how this has hamstrung earnings and your in sight I think would be great.

Chariotsonfire

Standing starts under HWOE are crucifying lesser performed and out of form horses and this needs to be addressed as a matter of urgency,

Odds on favourites in stands were a rarity  but you only have to look at Our Max Phactor's progression through the HWOE levels to see it is not working.

GP FT $1.30

Northam 40m - front was 10m $1.20

GP 20m $2.50

GP 20m $1.30

GP 30m $1.60

GP 30m $1.20

GP 20m $2.00 did start off same mark as Mr Mojito and gave 10m to  3 horses that started $40 plus

GP 10m $1.30P

So Our Max Ohactor was able to string together 8 consecutive wins in stands starting off 30m twice and at long odds on on five occasions.

curmudgeon

Agree Chariots. The HWOE earning bands attributed to handicap each horse plus concessions need revising. Most HWOE stand fields give the appearance of an avalanche built up behind less than competitive front lines although the occasional "new " stand horse with good ability can get on a roll through the ranks. This has happened historically with stands until the handicap gets them.

Personally I think the old Discretionary and Conditioned stand handicaps got it right 99% of the time. This is one area, ironically enough, where handicaps if written more precisely in consideration to narrower front, 10m and 20m band width would almost parallel the old Conditioned system.

 

  

curmudgeon

2lifetimewinners said:

Curmudgeon

I know a leading trainer is trying to put together a consortium from all parts of the industry to go to RWWA and the Bosses to discuss this.

I think this is a perfect example of how this has hamstrung earnings and your in sight I think would be great.

Quite frankly I think this is a ministerial level problem now 2LTW. The ad hoc and ramshackle delivery of the system that needs constant frantic revision has demonstrably been without regard to financial disadvantage caused to a significant number within the fraternity. Overwhelmingly the transition ratings discriminate against lesser performed horses at the bottom of the pyramid as a handicapping system. Already industry representations to harness admin have been met with a tin ear it seems as it has closed ranks and doors and phones to the outside world. Last week on the RWWA funded TABradio I listened to the branding of legitimate complaint by three on air mouthpieces as the work of "sooks". Good luck with that attitude. 

2lifetimewinners

TABRADIO is a joke and is just propaganda driven.

You cant speak out against it as you are belittled

Maybe the next step is Ministerial.

aussiebattler

curmudgeon said:

2lifetimewinners said:

Curmudgeon

I know a leading trainer is trying to put together a consortium from all parts of the industry to go to RWWA and the Bosses to discuss this.

I think this is a perfect example of how this has hamstrung earnings and your in sight I think would be great.

Quite frankly I think this is a ministerial level problem now 2LTW. The ad hoc and ramshackle delivery of the system that needs constant frantic revision has demonstrably been without regard to financial disadvantage caused to a significant number within the fraternity. Overwhelmingly the transition ratings discriminate against lesser performed horses at the bottom of the pyramid as a handicapping system. Already industry representations to harness admin have been met with a tin ear it seems as it has closed ranks and doors and phones to the outside world. Last week on the RWWA funded TABradio I listened to the branding of legitimate complaint by three on air mouthpieces as the work of "sooks". Good luck with that attitude. 

Sooks and Nay Sayers was the comment and quite disrespectful to those whom Are just raising concerns about matters in the industry that are detrimental to the industry ,yet they themselves laugh and joke on air live about it and off air by the sounds of it . To me that doesn’t do much for positive promotion of the industry at all ,nor does one host advocating for a large stable to team drive in a feature race .
Did they sneak in a punters tip in that as well Bettor Not Bitter racing at Northam tomorrow night lol