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Pinjarra Preview, 9th February

West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts

Race 1 - Making Millions

Magic Millions day returns to Pinjarra, with a very competitive 8 race card. 38 degrees is forecast which could make the couple of hour float trip for the runners from the city a little daunting. The rail is at the TRUE position which showed a heavy on pace bias last time they raced in that position. Not expecting much different with on pace horses having a natural advantage (until later in the day when everyone goes mad trying to lead).

Big old maiden to kick off the day, with the top 3 in the market; Wee Ripper, Our Girl Marli & Prized Nemesis, really standing out. There looks a real lack of speed in this event, with Talent School likely to get it relatively soft out in front, with William Pike a big chance of holding that So You Think mares back with Our Girl Marli. That’s the way we’ll go here. Pike has ridden this Graeme Ballantyne mare twice in her 17 start career and they have been by far, her two best career performances. She has got a long way back at her first and second up runs, but she is a horse who has reasonable gate manners and can settle handy. If she races with the same zest she did for Pike at her most recent outing, she’ll be hard to get past from the good alley.

Wee Ripper has been the well supported runner early (5 to 3.3) and it is not hard to see why. Stopped in her tracks last time out at Ascot, he absolutely smashed the line and was probably a good thing beaten. Some punters (ahem) had the 100’s about him that day, so will find it hard to come in at the shorts on offer here. I’m concerned he’ll get back again and Pike will have stolen a march on them with a perfect ride on Marli.

Prized Nemesis smashed the line last start and Mitch will be either looking for the three wide line, or to really dig him up from the gates and find the outside of Talent School. A tough ride from 13.

Being a 17 start maiden, I would love to back Our Girl Marli each way if you see $2+, but at the current quote she is a win only bet. Pretty confident with Pike on.

Selections

Our Girl Marli
Wee Ripper
Prized Nemesis
Talent School

Suggested Bet: 70 wins Our Girl Marli (10).

 

Race 2 - The Skipper

Captain Stirling was brave in defeat 7 days ago when backed from even money into $1.55. The money which comes for some of Roy Rogers horses is quite amazing. He either has a big mouth or a big wallet.

Back down the straight, he really should be winning this if handling the one week back-up. Form down the chute is completely separate to form around a bend and going back to his win on the 12th of January he deserves favouritism. In saying that, I can’t come at him at the current quote of a tick over even money. There is a fair bit of speed in this event.

Disruptive, Just A Fluke, Saturia all fly while Dam Ready, Night Voyage and first up specialist Supposition can all finish races off hard and are proven down the straight.

I am going to suggest a very small bet on Sharpbob. Two very strong wins down the straight last campaign, before failing badly two starts ago when coming down the centre of the track alongside Speeding Comet, who was just as ordinary. Speeding Comet has since come out to run two absolute bolters (probably a good thing beaten twice). Sharpbob followed up that effort with an on speed effort over the unsuitable 1400m, when he stuck on admirably. From barrier 13, he should be able to find the outside fence and either lead that line up, or sit on the back of a speedster. Steven Parnham is riding a few long priced winners lately and I think this is another he can salute on.

Going to tip Captain Stirling on top, but Sharp Robert is the each way play at cricket score odds. Currently around $30, it’d be no surprise to see him start upwards of $50 on the exchange. Going to take Dam Ready on with Mitchell Pateman out of the saddle. I think he’s been the key to this geldings revival.

Selections

Captain Stirling
Sharpbob
Saturia
Just A Fluke

Suggested Bet: 15 wins and 35 places Sharpbob (11).

 

Race 3 - Shaun’s Secret

Three Secrets and Carocapo stand out as the obvious winning options in what should be a hotly contested sprint.

Carocapo is now third up from a long break and should appreciate the on pace pattern, Pinjarra tends to offer. From barrier one Jason Brown will hold the rail and roll them along. With the likes of Tirreno, Little Fish, De Andes and Love Trade to settle in the positions around him, he doesn’t have a real out and out threat who will be putting pressure on late - he should shake them all off with a degree of comfortability. In saying that, a lot of those have the potential to be real nuisances throughout running. He’ll look the winner with 200m to go, it just depends how much he has been softened up.

Three Secrets will be running the sharpest final splits and if Shaun McGruddy can have him within striking distance on straightening, he’ll be hard to hold out late. His form around the likes of In Love With Paris, Mizlecki and Pearls And Prawns last campaign is far superior to what he meets here. Deserves to add a second win to his career record.

If Delaney can get out of the gates cleanly and go somewhere near holding Carocapo’s back he is a live hope, while Checkers was huge last start and has performed above expectations since being transferred to Monica Tyson. Drawn awkwardly again, but if Dan Staeck can get cover in the three wide line, he’s a live hope at an enticing quote.

Selections

Three Secrets
Carocapo
Checkers
Delaney

Suggested Bet: No bet.

 

Race 4 - Oh Miki

Mikimoto is clearly the class of this race and returned in reasonable fashion when a close up fourth to Alpha Sky, three weeks ago. Really did have every chance in the run to win that event, but forgiveness can be given after such a lengthy stint off the track. Should be rock hard fit here and in a race devoid of top end speed, I am expecting Pike to roll forward and take up the running.

Royal Missile looks the biggest danger. Drawn to settle just off the speed in a slowly run race, Kate Witten is a rare apprentice who seems to have more success on sit and sprinters rather than rolling front runners. Recent victories on Macroy (twice), Faerie Whisper and Mycroft are testament to this. She is probably the most underrated apprentice in WA. Royal Missile was huge in the fillies and mares series, but never drew a winning barrier. She won this race last year and after Mikimoto, it is a pretty thin version of this event.

Princess Zelda is low flying at the moment, racking up some huge numbers at her most recent win. On the work she had to do there, you’d suspect the 1400m shouldn’t pose too much of a problem.

Really keen on Mikimoto if shopping at $2 late, if not I will probably look at Royal Missile on an each way basis closer to the $10 mark. I’ll let the prices dictate.

Selections

Mikimoto
Royal Missile
Princess Zelda
Resistance

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Mikimoto (2).

 

Race 5 - Beat The Miller

Simon Miller has a strong hand in this extremely competitive sprint with Beat The Devil and Alpha Sky both flying at the moment. Beat The Devil was huge in defeat last time out, when being forced to come wider and make more of a sustained run than they would have liked. The barrier looks a bit sticky on the surface, but there is a real lack of pace in this sprint and he could just about cross and find the rail here. Will take a stack of beating from there.

Alpha Sky has been huge all campaign and showed he has another string to his bow when sitting outside the speed for a comfortable win three weeks ago. Probably looks to go forward again, but my guess is Patrick Carbery will be happy to let the stablemate cross.

Forceful received a 10 out of 10 from William Pike at his last outing and from barrier 2, there is no reason he isn’t afforded another Pikey gem. A big watch on Red Publisher who absolutely flies at Pinjarra. His only unplaced effort at the track was two starts ago, when he was arguably the run of the race in an event where a new track record was set. You can forget he went around at Geraldton in the Batavia Sprint. Ashley Maley perfectly utilises the claim of Jade McNaught from a good alley and he should be in the first 4 or 5 in running. If this was over 1400m (at this stage of his career, I think he’s best over that journey) I would just about be declaring him here. $8.50 a place available around the joint - that's probably the value for the event.

Over the 1200m, it is a clear lean to Beat The Devil. He is a horse on the rise who should be suited by the lack of speed in this event.

Selections

Beat The Devil
Alpha Sky
Red Publisher
Forceful

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Beat The Devil (8).

 

Race 6 - Money Man

Niccovi was backed by a fleet of bobcats at his first career start (which might have something to do with the fact half of Bunbury own it), when always mapped to have a tricky run. I think a lot of that money was placed with the heart over the head. She reappears here on the back of a very hot trial and from the better draw, should take a stack of beating late if she is as good as Simon Miller says. The way she extended late in her recent trial was huge and she’s drawn to park up on the back of the speed.

Jericho Missile, Miss West Coast and Mia Dolce are all live hopes in this quarter of a million dollar event, but I’m going to predict a few sore heads in Bunbury on Sunday morning.

Selections

Niccovi
Miss West Coast
Jericho Missile
Mia Dolce

Suggested Bet: 50 wins Niccovi (9).

 

Race 7 - Easy Pic

Only two possible winners here with Chix Pic and Samizdat to battle for the $86,000 first prize on offer. Samizdat is the current favourite with a lot of punters banking on ‘potential’ over the proven class. Give me Shane Watson over Jason Sangha any day of the week.

Chix Pic’s form jumps off the page. First up last campaign he beat Black Sabbath, Lady Cosmology and Valour Road. These horses ran big bolters in group ones and twos throughout the carnival. Second up he was only beaten by Mystery Miss, when he sat off the track throughout. Flirtini, Lady Cosmology and Market Ruler were a few of the names behind him. None of these have faced anything like that. The concern for me is the barrier, with both Market Ruler and Fire And Rain possessing a lot of early speed and likely to take up the two leading positions. Joey rides the horse well, so we’ll back him in.

Samizdat is the unknown of the field with this Not A Single Doubt gelding, yet to be defeated in race or trial. If Chix Pic does get an awkward passage in running, he’ll be the one gunning him down late.

Happy with anything around the current $4 quote for Chix Pic, who I will make my best of the day.

Selections

Chix Pic
Samizdat
Smart Fox
Platoon

Suggested Bet: 100 wins Chix Pic (2).

 

Race 8 - Pike In The Last

I won’t be the only one siding with the Wizard from the West in the last, with Western Temple firmly having his hoof on the till. From the gate, with any other jockey on board, I would be taking him on with a degree of confidence but Pike sums up track conditions better than anyone and will know how he needs to ride this son of Dream Ahead. Last time out he got a little lost early in the straight when closing late on My Greek Boy. It really was a run that said this horse is ready to win.

My Greek Boy does look the biggest danger and should be suited by the absence of Wrinkly and a probable leader bias track. Either sits outside Fontainebleau or crosses to lead from that mare, who will find winning here awfully difficult with the 60kg’s. I am surprised Lindsey Smith hasn’t opted to utilise a claim.

From barrier 11, Come Play With Me at around $5 looks the lay of the day, with Taxagano capable of running a big race with Chris Parnham taking the mount. A big watch on Pinzu - the bar shoes go off and last time this happened he saluted on Railway Stakes day in a black type event. This is a race he can win if utilising the barrier.

We’ll have our main bet on Western Temple at mid 3’s and a saver on Pinzu at upwards of $30.

Selections

Western Temple
My Greek Boy
Pinzu
Taxagano

Suggested Bet: 70 wins Western Temple (6). 10 wins Pinzu (5).
  

Comments

  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    5,762 posts
    edited February 8
    SLIP'S TIPS :-B

    R2 
    Khan at the weights should beat Night Voyage. Jockey's interest though does plays a factor.
    R3 Carocapo should be the bet of the day but I don't mind Geiger Gem looks a great each way bet. Those two stand out.
    R5 Get Over It is the best each way bet for the day. Currently $26. Atlanta Blue also value as a saver
    R7 Platoon will run a big race first up. Each Way all day




  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    6,999 posts
    I think the risk of the day is Niccovi.
  • JellJell    943 posts

    R1 - Reveuse 0.5u/1.5u
    I haven't put this bet on yet
    because I think he will drift before the jump. Even though he finished
    sixth beaten 2L last start he was wide the entire race and held on
    really well. Unfortunately he's drawn wide again and with the big field
    it's going to come down to luck in running.

    R2 - Sharpbob 0.8u/1.2u @ 26/5.75
    I'm willing to give him another chance, basically for all the reasons Terry mentioned, so no point echoing them.

    R5 - Get Over It 0.5u/1.5u @ 18/4.4
    Down in grade, freshened 4
    weeks and back to 1200m from 1400m last start plus Glenn Smith goes on,
    all good things. He will settle towards the back of the field and with a
    bit of speed injected into the race by Beat The Devil and Pym's Royale,
    it should set it up for him to run on late.

    Miss West Coast for the 2YO and Blackwood River each way in the 3YO, both are no bet races for me though.

    thefalcon likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    15,919 posts
    any 1st time blinkers, jell? ;)
  • JellJell    943 posts
    R2 Sharpbob - Technically not since they were only off for last start now they're back on.

    R5 Chesten Flyer - First time ever, I'm already on Get Over It but might be worth a saver.

    R6 Niccovi - Also first time ever but only her second start.

    hash, thefalcon likes this post.

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