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Ascot Preview, March 2nd

West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts

Race 1 - Our Idol

Bella’s Idol looks the value in the first and that’s the way we’ll go in a very open affair. Improved out of sight after two lacklustre performances first and second up and it was no coincidence the improvement coincided with the appointment of Mitch Pateman. He retains the mount after Steele Casey made the very odd decision to opt for stable apprentice Mollie Clark. In a race devoid of speed, Avidus does look like he’ll be in front for a long way, but what he loses in terms of a pilot can’t always be measured tangibly.

Express Flirt is $3.50, Bella’s Idol $26. Express Flirt got the gun run for Pike midweek (the 3 wide line is the spot to be) and Whiting takes over here (Pike is 2 from 2 on him). I didn’t see enough between their runs to warrant the price differential.

Bella’s Idol, a small speculative each way @ $26 for WA’s form jockey.

Selections

6 Bella’s Idol
2 Avidus
7 Express Flirt
1 Touch Of Silver

Suggested Bet: 20 wins and 20 places Bella’s Idol (6).

 

Race 2 - Slowing Comet

Speeding Comet was excuseless last start when crossing without too much fuss, but being the first horse to call an Uber. He’s better than that. His previous two efforts just win this, and while the theory will be bandied about he wasn’t suited leading, he has done so with success in the past and his usual racing pattern is deep without cover. It isn’t liked he needs a cuddled up run. Let’s put it down to ‘one of those days’. We all have them.

With a stack of speed drawn underneath, I suspect we’ll see some more circumspect tactics engaged here and purely on class (and those two runs against Enticing Star last campaign), we’ll give him another go at around $9 each way.

Bar Secret Assault and Copper Fury, the rest are winning chances in a very open affair.

Selections

2 Speeding Comet
4 Don’t Fuss
1 Night Voyage
6 Hoboken

Suggested Bet: 20 wins and 20 places Speeding Comet (2).

 

Race 3 - Death, Taxes...

Do we go to the well again? Bit of deja vu here ‘Snow Lord is a very particular type of horse….’. It’s all been said before and again everything lines up. Requires 1000-1100m, an inside barrier and a reasonably quick horse in front of it to allow it galloping room on straightening. It gets all of that again after absolutely falling in a month ago against the same galloper.

There are sharper chasers here in Dam Ready, Seeker & Neurological while I don’t expect Captain Stirling to be ridden as quietly as he was at their last outing - look for him to try and steal this on the bend.

Again, at around the $8 mark (think he will start longer) - is worth an each way ticket, with less confidence. Let’s hope lightning strikes twice.

Selections

2 Snow Lord
7 Captain Stirling
3 Dam Ready
4 Neurological

Suggested Bet: 20 wins and 20 places Snow Lord (2).

 

Race 4 - Age V Diablerie

Diablerie is a tease. Puts in run after run which scream ‘be on me next time out’, with that elusive ‘next time’ never arriving. He’s moved to a new trainer, there is a new jockey on board and his first up run was huge. I’m willing to give him this one more chance.

His first up effort behind De Andes was far better than it reads on paper. When De Andes jumps and leads at Bunbury, he doesn’t lose. He was in no mans land at the 300m mark but finished full of running. I like the fact Pike sticks, and I am expecting him to be a couple of horses back on the fence before Pike does, what Pike does best in the straight.

Zetorio and Coming Around were huge in the three year old listed race at Pinjarra, while Chesten Flyer can improve with a more patient ride. After missing the kick last start, he was scrubbed along to find the back of the speed - horses can’t make two runs.

Selections

2 Diablerie
4 Zetorio
7 Coming Around
1 Chesten Flyer

Suggested Bet: 60 wins Diablerie (2).

 

Race 5 - A Star Is Born (70 starts ago)

I’ve been monitoring the progress of Star Glitter closely this campaign and this finally looks his race. Having only won 5 of 70 career starts, he does not win out of turn, but does tend to bob up once per campaign - usually at $10+. This looks the one.

Chris Parnham replaces young Brandon Louis after a really encouraging run only seven days ago. The type of horse he finished on the heels of that day, is superior to what he meets here. Does require the right type of run, but from barrier 6 the speed map does look kind to him on paper (and every race is ran exactly as it looks on paper).

More Aces will be looking to hold the rail, with the chances of De Andes hinging on how quickly that runner begins on his outside. Santiago Gal gets the run of the race, while you’d suspect the winning run of Macroy must be close to coming to an end from the awkward alley.

At around $15, Star Glitter looks one of the better each way bets of the day.

Selections

3 Star Glitter
8 Santiago Gal
7 Princess Zelda
1 More Aces

Suggested Bet: 40 wins and 40 places Star Glitter (3).

 

Race 6 - Bob’s Best

The WA Oaks and WATC Derby aspirants will be on show in the following two events, where we should get a little bit closer to determining who is Bob’s best.

Adornment heads the market here and rightly so. After a less than encouraging debut a couple of months ago, this Medaglia D’Oro filly has gone from strength to strength. Broke her maiden status in style at a midweek three year old event, which had more depth than the norm. The authority in which she won, suggests she has a bright future and for that reason she heads the early WA Oaks market.

Assetro and Speedy Miss come out of the Challenge Stakes form line and it is a near impossibility to line that form up against Adornments.

The current quote of even money, does look bare minimum, though from the barrier with the Wizard on board, it is probably right. A watch on Dark Choice.

Selections

5 Adornment
1 Assetro
4 Speedy Miss
9 Dark Choice

Suggested Bet: 70 wins Adornment (5).

 

Race 7 - Parnham’s Piper

Confident that the Parnham trained and ridden Platoon, might have a class edge on these. You can forget he went around first up when struggling to keep up with them early (the 1200m is not his go) before finding a lot of rear end over the final 100m.

Regal Power is your $2.35 favourite and if you line up the runs of these two gallopers over their careers, it has always been Platoon who has looked the more talented. His effort in the Fairetha Stakes was far superior to that of the short priced favourite here. After finally drawing a reasonable gate, Steve Parnham will be looking to slot him in just worse than midfield, and extract him wide on straightening - he’ll run the quickest last 400m here, it’s just about getting the right cart into the race.

Regal Power gets all the favours from the good gate, but has been a fairly costly conveyance in his short career to date.

$11 is currently available, which to me looks enough. Very hard to judge what this market will do closer to jump. Probably just pips Star Glitter as my best bet of the day.

Selections

4 Platoon
6 Regal Power
1 Creative Hero
3 Sliced Bread

Suggested Bet: 41 wins and 41 places Platoon (4).

 

Race 8 - Fighting Finish

Cracking finish to the day, with a lot of potential top liners to do battle in this 70+ handicap. Mizlecki’s last effort was a hard one to ignore when finding a stack of trouble in the straight and savaging the line when she got out. If she drew a gate she would be a no-brainer on top selection, but I struggle to have a huge amount of confidence in Diamond Dan from a wide alley. They tend to sit pretty deep for him and it’ll be impossible for her to carry that weight without cover in the run. If Dan finds cover midfield, she’ll be very hard to hold out late. The $7.50 on offer is probably enough to take that option on.

Debellatio broke a lengthy losing streak with a brilliant piece of tactical riding from the same jockey. It would appear he has had the choice between the two gallopers, opting for Mizlecki. The market doesn’t reflect that preference (though it was probably made pre-barrier draw).

In a race devoid of too much speed, Rockon Tommy should get a comfortable roll of it out in front with Red Publisher likely to get that soft cuddled up run on it’s back or on the back of Peppijack, who will likely sit in the breeze. He’s only won the 1 of 41 at Ascot, so the odds are against him, but this is the exact situation where he runs a big race. And when he wins, it is always at a quote.

Got to think the 61.5kg’s stops Freo (if not, we have a serious horse on our hands), while Western Temple will appreciate being back at Ascot. Doesn’t seem to go at Pinjarra. If this was over 1600m, he’d be hard to beat here.

To follow on the theme of the day, we’ll look for a bit of value with a place heavy each way bet on Red Publisher to finish us off. I think the two favourites in Forceful and Debellatio are both a little thin in the market with the value being around Red Publisher, Mizlecki & Western Temple.

Selections

4 Red Publisher
3 Mizlecki
2 Western Temple
1 Freo

Suggested Bet: 10 wins and 30 places Red Publisher (4).
+1 -1

Ridersonthestorm33, rooboy likes this post.

Comments

  • JellJell    994 posts
    I feel our previewer, Terry, has long given up on Not Again Ken after his dismal last campaign but today could see improvement after being withdrawn his last two starts from playing up in the barriers.

    Yes, he has never placed in all 4 first up starts but 3/4 of those he never had blinkers. The only first up run he started with blinkers, he finished 4th after doing everything wrong in the race.

    I feel he showed a lot of improvement in his recent trial and with blinkers and pacifiers going on first up I think we can see him run a race.

    Glenn Smith has been replaced for some reason with Daniel Staeck but I see no problem with this.

    Of course after writing all this he could come out and show us the usual lackluster grey bugger he's been lately and make me look the fool but I'll be having an each way regardless.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    9,246 posts
    edited March 2
    Interesting runner in race 2: Kennedy has numerical form of 0,0,0,X.

    Those three runs were at Flemington, Caulfield, Canterbury - has drawn the extreme wide barrier but being kept safe at around $4.50 got a feeling will drift right out - however if remains safe in the betting or well backed could be one watch, would be a big training performance by Chris Gangemi to get this guy up.

    Possibly the Exceed And Excel gelding was named after former U.S President John F. Kennedy who in many ways did exceed and excel.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    9,246 posts
    Nice bullish tip on Bella's Idol above. Not much could be better than commencing with a $26 winner for the day. No doubt confidence is up!
  • rooboyrooboy    1,334 posts
    He's our man Riders!

    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    9,246 posts
    Not that it sometimes means much but see one of Kennedy's placing's was a second to the very good Siege Of Quebec - been close up in Group One races.

    Siege Of Quebec has won close to half a million dollars in stake money - still has a bit of ground to make up - he cost 1.2million$.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    9,246 posts
    edited March 2
    Called Kennedy last - ran 6th finished off ok but did look like it was going to run last, got going late in the piece and ran on quite well.

    Had to go back from the outside draw and three wide the race, always 100/1 in running with the job ahead of it. Fair to ok run.

    The second to Siege Of Quebec was in a five horse field.
  • TheSwooperTheSwooper    1,522 posts
    Just catching up on the replays. Our tipster got the first part right. Great tipping.

    Avidus never got an advantage form having a change,
    There are 6 versions  of Stirling Estate - pathetic this week.
    Snow Lord needed the jockey to just be more aggressive early. 
    Coming Around looked like it was going to win but just not good enough and
    Zelda was ridden too close and given little chance.

    I am a poor judge but thank goodness for Adornment,
  • paraleticparaletic    3,232 posts
    edited March 2
    The game is dead...... we’re better of getting involved in the greyhounds.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    9,246 posts
    edited March 2
    One thing you can rely on, although noticed he hadn't done it for a week or two and that is Pikey riding the final winner of the day.
    He was almost overdue to do it again and didn't let the team down.

    Just to make sure of it, rode the final three.
  • pikerpiker    341 posts
    Bella and Adornment got me out of trouble!
    I was on Bella and NAK in the first.
    It feels as if the trainer of the first hasn't had a city winner since Adam was a boy!
    Again, everybody (including the trainer ) forgive my attempts at humour.

    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

  • spinkingspinking    2,235 posts
    Wish Pikey would pack his bag and move over east. Had a decent bet on Freddy Dag thought his run in the challenge was full of merit after the quick back up. If you have a look at the replay of the challenge Fish ran out of room and still finished off after getting stopped in his tracks. Took $19 today and had a bit of a July about 150 out then realised who was on the horse in front.none other than the unstoppable W. Pike fcuk him

    thefalcon likes this post.

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    9,246 posts
    Unlucky Spink when saw Fred explode thought there's the winner until saw Pikey that is. Then a quick reassement.
  • hashhash    6,442 posts
    piker said:

    Bella and Adornment got me out of trouble!

    I was on Bella and NAK in the first.
    It feels as if the trainer of the first hasn't had a city winner since Adam was a boy!
    Again, everybody (including the trainer ) forgive my attempts at humour.
    If you count a Wednesday midweek meeting at Belmont as a city winner then I think his last winner was in June when the horse in question won its last race 6 months ago
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