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NBA - Warriors v Raptors - The Big Best Of Seven

Sport
Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,515 posts
edited May 27 Sport
Seen some big upsets in sport in recent times but Toronto would take the cake if can overtake the Golden State Warriors. Hopefully won't be a 4-0 result and Toronto can pick up a win or two.

Game one this week in Toronto see's the Raptor's a surprising $1.85 favourite with $1.96 available on the Warrior's.

Market betting on these games by price assesor's are heavily skewed to home court advantage - I'd be looking at the $1.96 for the best team in the world!

Game total line is 215.5, like the game totals but my word they can be tricky - most ( not all ) bookmakers game totals on the semi finals went under the provisional line. ( Sometimes going over - occasionally thanks to overtime ).

Am tipping a Warriors win and game total to go over! You could do worse than go the opposite - Toronto and under!

Comments

  • hashhash    6,311 posts
    i'll meet you halfway and say Warriors win and the total to go under 
    totals as you already mentioned are a safe bet when it comes to the finals (in most codes)
    just like I tried to tell my mates at the Glory game last week, just because Sydney kicked 6 the previous week it doesn't mean they're going to do the same a week later and certainly not in a GF
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,515 posts
    edited May 27
    Yeah that game total line is an interesting one - it maybe heading down too and by game day be 213.5 or 212.5 sometimes it does fluctuate a little especially if the pro-handicappers see some value.

    Have seen game totals go up and down before games by a point or 5 - sometimes the bookies were right in the first place. Have seen totals drop from 215.5 to 211.5 and total finishes at 227!

    This game total is a tricky one. What have noticed so far in most of the finals defence has gone up a notch but until late in the piece bookies were still going high game total.

    If this game was early final's six weeks ago bookmakers might have gone up 227.5.
    And earlier on in the season it was the highest scoring NBA year for decades. Game totals were going through the roof. That was the time to get on the over.

    Been terrific defence in these finals and now think price assesor's adjusting so 215.5 could be close. Amazing how many times there very close to the mark...sometimes last throw of the game can decide over or under..that's not bad.
  • TiversTivers    6,985 posts
    All I can tell you with certainty is that the best player out there doesn’t play for the Dubs...
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,515 posts
    edited May 27
    Still don't know how Toronto got to the big dance - was watching the Bucks game on Sunday - and was getting the "walk stare" from my dog - and even said to her, ok we can go now, I'm 100% sure this game is all over, was just before three quarter time.

    Didn't even bother to check the score's got home switched it back on and see the Buck's coach looking forlorn at the press conference, thought gosh he looks sad as the winner, hello...hold on.....
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,515 posts
    edited May 27
    Did watch the replay though....Leonard outstanding again. Very determined team that mob. Only hope is to win game one, just gives them a little sniff, emphasise little.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,515 posts
    edited May 27
    This is a gamble that might pay - hope like hell Toronto wins game 1 and then back the Warriors to win the series. They will get out a little if lose first game.

    Can see two value bet's with Golden State - either $1.96 to win game one - or fingers crossed they lose and then back them to come from 0-1 down to lift the trophy!
  • SKIDSSKIDS    733 posts
    edited May 30
    GSW now at as much as $2.12. Game total over/under 213 now.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,515 posts
    edited May 30
    Yes for sure Skids the drift away from GSW is almost alarming, from $1.96 to $2.12 in sports betting especially for the best basketball team in the world is a decent swing. ( Realise minus Kevin Durrant and Boogie Cousins ).

    No bet game for me - but if a gambling man I'd be attacking the $2.12 - which means they'd probably lose. Another reasonable bet would be backing GSW with a head start on pick your own line - although for every point you take the odds are slashed drastically.

    Game total support has been for the under - so all the money has been for Toronto and Under game total....hmmmm I'm still leaning GSW and Over.
  • SKIDSSKIDS    733 posts
    I'm taking a (small) double - Toronto to win 1st qaurter/GSW to win @ $4.60

  • hashhash    6,311 posts
    Nice start skids!

    Under 215 is home for the tea money after the first quarter \m/

    SKIDS likes this post.

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,515 posts
    edited May 31
    Projected game total three mins. before 3/4 time is 219.5, a bit to play out just yet and can bounce around the total in the run as we've seen.
    Warriors are @+5.5 at the line.
  • hashhash    6,311 posts
    FAIL
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,515 posts
    edited May 31
    Whoever said betting on Quaddies is a journey hasn't had a bet on the NBA.
    Got half right - went over.
    Golden State - F.

    Toronto have never stopped scraping through to get to this stage - could a fairytale beckon.

    Stay tuned for game 2.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,515 posts
    edited June 3
    Hash/Skids game 2 - Toronto lead at quarter time and Golden State win plus game total went under!

    Two amazing things about the game.
    1. Warriors went on a 18 - 0 run after half time.
    2. In the final five and half minutes Warriors scored only three points and that was their final throw to seal the deal.

  • therealkramertherealkramer    6,710 posts
    Warriors are the greatest in-run bet outside Sam Stosur & the Canberra Faders :)]
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,515 posts
    Warriors got out to around $1.65 to win the series after game one loss, now a cave in to $1.30.
  • therealkramertherealkramer    6,710 posts

    Warriors got out to around $1.65 to win the series after game one loss, now a cave in to $1.30.

    What were they paying in game 2, down 10+ when Steph had 0 pts? They are never out of a game and no lead is big enough.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,515 posts
    edited June 4
    Was one of the rare times wasn't checking the "in the run market"...but they were looking ordinary especially with Curry scoreless...am thinking $4 - $5 ? Perhaps better, then immediately after half time go 18 zip.

    Boogie Cousins made a difference with his defence. Gasol was a bit down.

    If Golden State win the series ( they will ) game 2 is the turning point.

    When they were down and out just before half time, if somebody then said they'll only score three points in the final five and half minutes of the game - then how can they possibly win ?

    Think that's why their so good.
  • therealkramertherealkramer    6,710 posts
    @Ridersonthestorm33 I'm not so sure. Klay has a hamstring strain(although he's said he'll play in game 3) and unless KD returns, you'd still imagine they're vulnerable. They're still overwhelming favs but how many more injuries can they withstand? 

    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

  • TiversTivers    6,985 posts
    Klay out !
    Raps HAVE TO win this game.
  • hashhash    6,311 posts
    that explains the late betting move on the Raptors! 
    into as short as even money (from $2.50)
    GSW $1.50 out to $1.70

    take the $1.60 for now before the second qtr begins for Toronto to win surely 

    SKIDS likes this post.

  • TiversTivers    6,985 posts
    And win easy they did
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,515 posts
    edited June 6
    Results are chopping and changing more than a swinging voter.

    Two game total's have gone over comfortably and one under by a fraction. What will game four bring result and game total wise ?

    The line pro handicappers to record a tidy annual profit work on getting it right about 53% of the time - that's how difficult it is. Even around 47% of the time they get it wrong.

    Line is 5.5 with that head start going to Toronto.
    Game total has risen for game four to a healthy 217.5

    I'm going Warriors to put their foot to the metal at -5.5 and game total under 217.5. No surprise to get both wrong.
  • TiversTivers    6,985 posts
    So are the line ups (chopping and changing).

    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

  • therealkramertherealkramer    6,710 posts
    edited June 6
    Tivers said:

    So are the line ups (chopping and changing).

    Ahead of Game 4:

    KD: OUT
    Kevon Looney: OUT(indefinite)
    Klay Thompson: Likely
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,515 posts
    edited June 6
    We finally do have something even.
    To win series -
    Toronto $1.91
    Golden State $1.91

    At the completion of game four a decent swing and roundabout to occur. Especially IF Toronto pulls off another upset and goes up 3 - 1 they may come in as short as $1.20 with just one more win required from three games.

    If Golden State can wrestle it back to 2 - 2 look for them to roll back in to about $1.40 to $1.50.

    The best value might be backing the loser of game 4 to win the series but you'd wanna be brave!
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,515 posts
    edited June 7
    With all the cloak and dagger and a topsy turvy series so far, perhaps the $1.72 about neither team going wire to wire in game four might be the go.

    Just require a flip flop in the lead at one of the breaks - or scores level - or overtime - any of them will do. Preferably need it to be as close at quarter time as possible - if scores level - you've already won.

    Had some good wins on that bet type - lost 'em too.
  • therealkramertherealkramer    6,710 posts
    If KD is to return this series you'd hope it's in game 5 but maybe that's hinging on tomorrow's result? I expect GS to win tomorrow but they are too short so the best you can hope for is for their price to blow out if Toronto jump out to a quick lead. If the series is 2-2 and KD comes back, I really don't think the Warriors are too worried about winning 2/3 games-inc at least one in Toronto-to clinch their third straight title.
  • therealkramertherealkramer    6,710 posts
    edited June 7

    Tivers said:

    So are the line ups (chopping and changing).

    Ahead of Game 4:

    KD: OUT
    Kevon Looney: OUT(indefinite)
    Klay Thompson: Likely

    Correction: Kevon Looney is IN. He’s playing with a ‘fracture near his collarbone’
    @-)
  • jumjum    2,500 posts

    IT'S KLAY'S DAY

    GSW to win Klay 3+ 3pointers and Klay 18.5 points $3.20


    $-)
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