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Belmont 15/6 preview with Daniel Cripps

West Australian Racing

Daniel is our new previewer and will start his regular previews on the 13th of July, to coincide with the start of our new tipping competition. Meantime, Dan has been kind enough to give us a sneak preview of his work. 


A bit about the Author:

I live and breathe WA racing but
have minimal interest in any other state. I’m the guy at Derby day who couldn’t
tell you who the favourite is in the Coolmore but gives anyone who will listen
my thoughts on every runner in the next at Bunbury when it pops up on Sky 2.

When it comes to doing the form,
I take a quantitative analysis (ratings) approach and then overlay that with
watching replays. I tend to focus on backing runners who are well thought of in
the market and are likely to settle on or near enough to the speed. You’ll
probably notice my interest wanes when previewing juvenile and staying events.

I don’t have an active PTT
account however I love talking anything WA racing so feel free to get in
contact via Twitter, my handle is crippa_92. Looking forward the challenge of
trying to fill the big shoes left by Terry.

Anyway enough of that, we’ve got
a really competitive eight race card on Saturday. With minimal rain forecast
over the next couple of days I’m expecting the track to be upgraded to a Soft5.
Rail in the 6m position and I can’t find any reason to suggest that the track
won’t play fairly. As per Terry’s previews, maximum confidence bet will be
$100.

Race 1- The Debut

Interesting speed map to kick off
proceedings with MISS TYCOON looking to cross BRAVE CONTENDER while THAT’S
FUNNY AZ might try to hold them both out which should ensure they run along.

Putting CARABINIER on top. Cost himself
any chance first up when bungling the start but he was strong on the line when
well thought of in the market. They have tinkered with the gear and if Hill can
get him to step cleanly and sit just behind the speed then watch for him late.

MISS TYCOON is your typical jump
and run type 2yo. If she finds the front and controls they will struggle to
catch her. BRAVE CONTENDER might be a better horse taking a sit, his figures
two starts back were strong. I’ll mention OBSTINATION as she will have her
admirers being the half-sister to Gatting. I’ve learnt the hard way that
siblings don’t always inherit the same genetics but her trial was solid enough
so I’ll throw her in.

Not a race I’m keen to get
involved in.

Selections:

CARABINIER – MISS TYCOON – BRAVE
CONTENDER – OBSTINATION

Betting Strategy:

No bet.

 

Race 2- Figures > Hype

The speed will be solid with no
less than five runners who like to settle in the first couple. There has always
been a lot of hype around SAMIZDAT and while he has looked the goods on the eye
his figures don’t quite emulate that so I’ll be betting around him.

It’s a race with many chances but
I’m keen to side with the soft track specialist DOUBLE BUBBLE. Undefeated on
rain affected ground and drops back to the five furlongs after a short let up. She
gets in well at the weights after the claim and from the inside marble Jade has
the option to lead or box seat.

CATHERINE WHEEL was brave last
start when being taken on a long way from home. Has the speed to lead or breeze
and a repeat of the run on soft ground behind Dance Music would be good enough
to win this. ESSENTIAL SPICE was also huge last start when “Lethal Lee” put on
a clinic of how to give a horse a gut buster first up with his for lack of a
better word, aggressive ride on Gillespie. She maps awkwardly from gate 8 but
if Knuckey gets one off the fence then she’s right in this. Though I’ve taken
on SAMIZDAT he is lightly raced and has upside, I’m not completely insane so
I’ll throw him in for 4th while NOCELLE ran well off a long layoff
and if she has improved off that she can run a race at decent odds.

A competitive event but happy to
have something on DOUBLE BUBBLE and to a lesser degree CATHERINE WHEEL. Happy
enough with the prices at time of writing but if the money comes for the
favourite we might get better late.

Selections:

DOUBLE BUBBLE – CATHERINE WHEEL –
ESSENTIAL SPICE – SAMIZDAT

Betting Strategy:

$50 wins DOUBLE BUBBLE and $10
wins CATHERINE WHEEL

 

Race 3- Staying King

Field of ten to battle it out in
the staying event, the speed should be genuine with noted leaders NOIR DE RUE
and PALACE ROGUE engaged.

Hard to look past COME PLAY WITH
ME, he is getting up in the weights but his last win was arrogant. He will get
an economical run from the inside gate and with even luck he should be able to
make it three on the trot.

SALON DU CHEVAL looks the danger,
missed the kick and needed to be bustled to tack onto the field but when he put
his mind on the job he hit the line hard. If Pike can step away cleanly then
his best figures put him right in the mix.

AT THE READY isn’t in the
greatest of form but likes the wet and can’t be discounted due to the man who
trains him while FRIARESQUE can improve with the Pontiff jumping on.

COME PLAY WITH ME should be
winning, however if Kirby gets locked away on the fence it won’t be easy to sprint
with the big weight so I won’t be diving in at the shorts.

Selections:

COME PLAY WITH ME – SALON DU
CHEVAL – AT THE READY – FRIARESQUE

Betting Strategy:

No Bet.

 

Race 4- Boot Leather

Not a heap of pace in this mile
event, PLAY HARD should lead comfortably with ARNIE’S BOY sitting outside.

It looks a race where you could
have half a dozen picks and still miss the winner. Eventually sided with the
lightly raced 5yo DEIMOS, he backed up a superb trial when winning with
authority first up after tramping deep throughout off the back of some good
market support. Again maps awkwardly but if Kennedy can get him in the
three-wide line then I think he will make his presence felt. His best figures
measure up and there is plenty of upside.

REBEL KNIGHT has been a costly
commodity of late but he will appreciate the drop in class and softer draw. The
stable mate HYPERSPACE was an eye-catching winner two starts ago before backing
it up with another victory which produced very good figures. The month between
runs is the query but the stable know how to keep them fit.

Would have almost had STOICISM on
top after two luckless runs if we were racing on a dry deck but his wet form is
a concern and until he proves otherwise I’m happy to take him on.

Very even race but with even luck
DEIMOS will be hard to beat, even if he gets posted he is tough so happy to
have a bet on an each-way basis.

Selections:

DEIMOS – REBEL KNIGHT –
HYPERSPACE – STOICISM

Betting Strategy:

$30 each-way DEIMOS

 

Race 5- The Big Guns

A small but select field of six
to contest the feature race of the day. GREAT SHOT will take up the running and
roll along in his customary role.

A dull race from a betting
perspective but it’s always enjoyable watching GALAXY STAR strut her stuff.
Those who used the $1.30 to boost their multis were made to sweat last start
but the extra distance and the sting out of the ground should ensure a much
more comfortable watch.

Toss of the coin for second
between GREAT SHOT and GATTING. I’ll go with the former as he will roll along
at his own pace and keep finding. The latter was a touch disappointing first up
but as they say “form is temporary, class is permanent”, he will improve in the
soft ground. MIZLECKI to run 4th.

Not a betting race for mine, I’m more
than happy to sit back and watch some quality horses do battle.

Selections:

GALAXY STAR – GREAT SHOT –
GATTING – MIZLECKI

Betting Strategy:

No bet.

 

Race 6 – Four Hundred and Thirteen
Days

This race will be on from the get
go with SENORITA BONITA, GLASGOW GIRL and GRECO all out and out  leaders. Unlike a lot of races on this card I
think there are few hopes.

It has been a long time between
drinks but I think today’s the day for LORDHELPMERUN. He looked back to his
best last start when recording good figures behind the star filly Flirtini. He
should be ready to peak 3rd up, the 1400m suits and he is drawn to
get a gun run in behind a hot speed.

MOSCHARD is shooting for six
straight thanks to a Pike gem last start. Noske replaces Pike and he will need
to show the same patience as the wizard as I suspect he will be buried away in
the field. Speaking of, ROYAL STATUE has the form on the board however I’m not
sure what to make of his trials, beaten a combined margin of sixteen odd
lengths. I’ll throw DOUBLE DIGIT in for 4th who is a favourite of
mine however I’d prefer to wait for the senior jockey to go on.

A race with not many chances, I’m
pretty keen on LORDHELPMERUN, he ticks a lot of boxes and at anything close to
$4 I’ll label him as my best of the day.

Selections:

LORDHELPMERUN – MOSCHARD – ROYAL
STATUE – DOUBLE DIGIT

Betting Strategy:

$70 wins LORDHELPMERUN

 

Race 7- Bridesmaid Becomes the
Bride

Starting to sound like a broken
record but we have another very competitive affair on our hands here. SHAPITA
and AL DI LA will both come across from their wide draws to ensure there is a
genuine tempo.

CITY CIRCLE has started to make a
habit of finding one better. In saying that finishing behind the likes of Dance
Music and Flirtini isn’t anything to be embarrassed about and her figures are
outstanding. She handles the wet and has the tactical speed to go forward and
look for spot just behind the leaders, if Chris can get one off the fence early
then expect her to be awfully hard to beat.

PEARLS AND PRAWNS is the x-factor
in the race. She has a good starting price profile in listed grade which puts
her in good stead for a race like this. Hasn’t trialled but is undefeated first
up so expect a forward showing. BARON BOSTOCK got the job done on the back of a
peach ride last start. The figures out of that race are strong and while the
map is slightly awkward he can be in the finish with a bit of luck. If SHAPITA
leads and controls then she has personal best figures which would win this race
at a double figure quote.

I think the awkward draw is
offset by the gun hoop so I’m happy to have something each-way on CITY CIRCLE
in an even race.

Selections:

CITY CIRCLE – PEARLS AND PRAWNS –
BARON BOSTOCK – SHAPTIA

Betting Strategy:

$30 each way CITY CIRCLE

 

Race 8- Head to the Bar

If the photos haven’t gone your
way and you’re thinking of blasting out in the last then my tip to you is
don’t. Go home and start thinking about Kalgoorlie because this race is a
nightmare. That is of course if the second emergency FREE TRADE doesn’t run, if
he does then ignore all the dribble below and open up the wallet!

They should run this at a
frenetic pace with MERYN looking to lead at all costs while S Parham will have
other ideas aboard THE NICCONIAN.

Going to put some value on top in
the last and go with MULTIVERSE. Tabtouch let the work experience kid set the
odds for this race by the looks with $51 being bet. He resumed with a super run
when momentarily held up before hitting the line nicely over the sprint trip.
The 1200m suits and he should get a great cart up behind the hot speed on track
conditions that suit.

STAGEMAN is flying but just can’t
buy a barrier. However write Pike off in the last at your own peril, with any
luck he can figure. MERVYN will look the winner for a long way and might just
keep finding while THE NICCONIAN can improve sharply at big odds after
featuring heavily in the stewards report first up.

Happy to finish the day with a
small each-way wager on MULTIVERSE. Unfortunately we won’t be seeing $51 but in
a competitive race I’d expect they will bet double figures as they jump.

Selections:

MULTIVERSE – STAGEMAN – MERVYN –
THE NICCONIAN

Betting Strategy:

$15 wins each-way MULTIVERSE

 

Comments

  • TiversTivers    7,221 posts
    Great write up.
    Easy to read, and goes in to a lot of variables (with sense).

    TheDiva, thefalcon, jum likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    16,016 posts
    yeah, well done, Daniel, hope your debut post kicks off with a few winners.

    jum likes this post.

  • hashhash    6,443 posts
    Previews the whole card and can’t even suggest a bet in the first to kick things off...

    Too conservative and cautious for my liking
  • TheDivaTheDiva    11,742 posts
    no confidence... no bet... I'm with crippsy on that strategy.

    thefalcon likes this post.

  • TiversTivers    7,221 posts
    Don’t back 2yo’s...... that’s a solid strategy.

    thefalcon likes this post.

  • paraleticparaletic    3,232 posts
    edited June 14
    Some people will only back 2yos because they havent picked up the bad habits yet. That is from a very well know local industry figure as well

    I back everything tho. 2yos, 10yos, canarvon, roeburne, belmont.....

    hash, jum, Manchild, detonator, Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • ChrisChris    4,107 posts
    Hence your alias  :D

    paraletic, hash, Manchild, AceV likes this post.

  • hashhash    6,443 posts
    Tivers said:

    Don’t back 2yo’s...... that’s a solid strategy.




    There’s one in the first tomorrow that will be winning.... I just haven’t found it yet!
  • paraleticparaletic    3,232 posts
    hash said:

    Tivers said:

    Don’t back 2yo’s...... that’s a solid strategy.




    There’s one in the first tomorrow that will be winning.... I just haven’t found it yet!



    See u in the winners room Hash
  • jumjum    2,622 posts

    I'm going to put in his four selections on the quaddies for 50% for the first month.

    Terry had a good run with them for a stretch there.

    Good luck Crippa

    :-bd

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,494 posts
    Good luck with the first of the previews crippa

    I'm pretty keen on Lordhelpmerun as well
  • NevershowsurpriseNevershowsurprise    706 posts
    You could stop Winx though Bomber :))
  • hashhash    6,443 posts
    jum said:

    I'm going to put in his four selections on the quaddies for 50% for the first month.

    Terry had a good run with them for a stretch there.

    Good luck Crippa

    :-bd



    Your killing valuable percentage taking more than one horse in the first leg
  • thefalconthefalcon    16,016 posts
    don't get too cocky mate...…. [-X
  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    5,779 posts
    edited June 14
    God it looks like Daniel...........

    A very good first up effort with the script and my favourite lines If the photos haven’t gone your
    way and you’re thinking of blasting out in the last then my tip to you is
    don’t. Go home and start thinking about Kalgoorlie 

    Hope there are some winners for Dan amongst his selections.

    In stark contrast here are some of my thoughts at odds and for the novelties;

    R1 No Apology
    R2 Regal Counsel at $91 and $12
    R3 Blue Tracer
    R4 Play Hard
    R6 Double Digit and Turbo Power Quinella
    R7 Distant Trilogy
    R8 Salamaat


  • jumjum    2,622 posts
    hash said:

    jum said:

    I'm going to put in his four selections on the quaddies for 50% for the first month.

    Terry had a good run with them for a stretch there.

    Good luck Crippa

    :-bd



    Your killing valuable percentage taking more than one horse in the first leg

    :-j They all get beat Hash. Hopefully your 3 run well today mate. would be an awesome experience going to the races with 3 in.
  • ChrisChris    4,107 posts
    Rebel Yell will be there in the 12th round
  • UttsyUttsy    54 posts
    Good luck today Crippa, really not an easy meeting to kick things off, that’s for sure!

    Here’s my throw today fwiw.

    R2 - Rebel Yell - Double Bubble - Essential Spice - Samizdat
    R3 - Noir de Rue - Salon du Cheval - CPWM - Blue Tracer
    R4 - Stoicism - Spiritual Warrior - Rebel Knight - Deimos
    R5 - Galaxy Star - Great Shot - Cappo D’Oro - Gatting
    R6 - Resistance - Turbo Power - Grey Enigma - Lordhelpmerun
    R7 - City Circle - Pearls and Prawns - State Attorney - Distant Trilogy
    R8 - Multiverse - Sovereign Trade - Nikitas - Tranquilla Sunrise

    Good luck!
  • rooboyrooboy    1,334 posts
    Can anyone bring up horses with 2 names in it on the CRIS site?
    I can only bring up 1 named horses as the 2 named cant be found!
    Help please if its just my Lap Top!
    Cheers

    SLIPPERGOLDEN likes this post.

  • savethegamesavethegame    1,322 posts
    Having that trouble going back through tab fields to cris,, but seems ok if go direct to cris fields hit name

    rooboy likes this post.

  • RodentRodent    5,003 posts
    Terry Leighton off to a flyer tipping No Apology.
  • savethegamesavethegame    1,322 posts
    Few laying all over Daniel he hasn.t jumped yet.
  • WhatisthepointWhatisthepoint    20 posts
    Good to see the Miller stable strip  is still going well lol what a joke double bubble.
  • NevershowsurpriseNevershowsurprise    706 posts

    Good to see the Miller stable strip  is still going well lol what a joke double bubble.

    Good to see you’re using full stops these days Mailman. Comma’s coming next?

    Chelsea, Flanders likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,494 posts

    You could stop Winx though Bomber :))




    You are right about that. Had Galaxy Star in a multi.

    Burn the joint to the ground, I'm spitting the dummy.

    Lordhelpmerun a living breathing certainty to win now.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    9,249 posts
    edited June 15
    Don't worry Bomber I could stop the Midland train leaving the platform.

    Inch perfect ride on Gatting, from the ideal one barrier, slipstream Great Shot and the winning move was putting the pressure on a fair way out and not waiting, he's a strong stayer and out toughed them and convincingly at that.

    Ride of the day so far.

    hash likes this post.

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    9,249 posts
    Distant Trilogy wow talk about keep on keeping on. Plus the balance and poise of Paul Harvey always helps.
  • paraleticparaletic    3,232 posts
    He is gutsy, he is ballsy and i will never own one as good as him again. Gatting you are a very very good ‘orse.
  • thefalconthefalcon    16,016 posts
    ^^rapt for you, hash, tivers and the crew....he sure is a special nag!

    Ridersonthestorm33, hash likes this post.

  • TheSwooperTheSwooper    1,522 posts
    Cracker ride. Beats the ride on City Circle by a whisker.
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