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The Belmont Preview by TMP for 29/6/19 (still)

West Australian Racing
It's cold as a MIL's kiss over here (I know most MIL's are lovely; it's just a saying).
I'm keen as mustard this week; esp after last week's amazing photo finish result for Friar Fox; must be due for a few 2nds in tight photos!

R/1 This is a great start to a marvellous program. I would have to believe the ground will be soft.
I see two horses here. The first starter by Toronado, who has apparently sired a ? Derby winner in England. Lavarrod is trained by S.C. and has P.C. up; 2 big pluses of course in addition to 2 v impressive trials. i really like the trainer as he chases the right races for his horses and owners where ever that may be.
The A.D. trained Money Matters was really impressive in a mid week 2YO race. These 2YO's can go up or down v quickly; but despitr the disaterous run 2 weeks ago of a fancied A.D. horse I have to have both of these here.

R/2 The fave here is a v up and coming type and deserveres the shorts on offer. WP is on one of those Celtus horses that have real talent if they reach the racecourse. Both go in.

3/ I will chance Fred Dag and say it is between Showmanship and Smaizdat
The fave did not beat much last time, but was a v good sectional. The topweight beat better horses and ran a better sectional.
Personally I don't think the 7kg is enough, so I have already put all ups through Samizdat.

4/ Here is the race of the day as far as class goes.
Again there ar no words from the Gatting camp; but no words re GS either.
Being a MP (not member of parliament but a Mug Punter) I have to now go for Gatting. Last year at this time, MM kept beating Pounamu.
Mybe GS has not quite come up to her best this time around. I also found it interesting that the wise Bob Peters sais that he thought Belmont favoured leaders more so than Ascot! Any way I hope Gatting gains a big enough break in the straight to hold off GS.

R/5 First quad leg is even in my opinion. We are up to 1300m and I will guess at 2 horses with potential, Pearl Trade.
Rebel Yell has always promised alot, so I have to support him here at a v good price.
Pearl Trade gains PC and she has so often not quite settled in her races and does not quite explode into it as she can. Lets see about tomorrow.

R/6. LHMR always looked a strong well built type and last time was a stunning win. I am v v keen here despite what may be a bad barrier for him; but it is Belmont and he should find daylight at the right time. The other class runner is TVK who was disapointing last time;; but in blinding rain.
I'll go with LHMR.

R/7 I have a v funny feeling about Campaign. He is by Sebring who handle the wet. Even though mid week last time. it was a reasonably strong race and he surged late. His form in Sydney was reasonable; so I am hoping he has significantly improved since then. Otherwise this race looks like a raffle.

R/8 Well, are we back to the past with last race Harvey saluting again? Neurological is good enough and despite no convincing wet form and the funny long price , he is in.
If the track is not too wet, Stageman is a cert; WP up and a better draw.
Multiverse is an amazing big price; I guess because of his barrier. Double Bubble is long because i guess because of that v disappoiinting run last time.
In Love with Paris will have to go in; everything seemed to go wrong last time in!
The fave might well be taken on by all and sundry of the front runners here; so I'm a bt wary. 
Suddenly Mervyn is 70's; just shows you; one day you are a rooster, the next day a feather duster.

Good Luck to all; let us hope the right horse whisperer catches our ear.
 

+1 -1

SLIPPERGOLDEN, frenc11 likes this post.

Comments

  • TheDivaTheDiva    11,542 posts
    the money is for deimos this morning... $2 into $1.75. I think closer to $2.20 was bet thursday and friday. 

    Galaxy Star also tightened up... I thought the money would be for Gatting. Hopefully Gatting tests her again and goes for home early because I reckon Gatting is the better stayer. 
  • detonatordetonator    1,725 posts


    TheDiva said:

    the money is for deimos this morning... $2 into $1.75. I think closer to $2.20 was bet thursday and friday. 


    Galaxy Star also tightened up... I thought the money would be for Gatting. Hopefully Gatting tests her again and goes for home early because I reckon Gatting is the better stayer. 



    Below is my post 2 weeks ago based around why super short priced favourites fail in small fields.

    Today my theory gets put to the test with Gatting vs Galaxy Star again.

    Last start GS had all the factors in her favour except the price being too short ($1.30).

    Today the factors may not be in GS `s favour except the price is more palatable.(1.65)

    So on that basis I am suggesting GS all the way !!! Speed maps, form guides ?? Who needs them ?


    Why does a horse with supposedly above average ability (according to every pundit in Australia everything else was running for second) fail in a small field ? I know why but nobody wants to say it.
    Galaxy Star drops out then comes home strong. In a large field one would think that is a disadvantage because it has a lot more traffic in front of it.
    Based on yesterday's run, both Gatting and GS got the runs they wanted so it was a fair fight with no excuses.
    At their next start does Gatting start shorter than GS. NO.
    Will GS beat Gatting in any size field ? Probably yes.
    So I can only base my conclusion that very short odds on pops in small fields are susceptible because ......... B-)

    detonator likes this post.

  • RodentRodent    4,846 posts
    TheDiva said:

    the money is for deimos this morning... $2 into $1.75. I think closer to $2.20 was bet thursday and friday. 


    Galaxy Star also tightened up... I thought the money would be for Gatting. Hopefully Gatting tests her again and goes for home early because I reckon Gatting is the better stayer. 
    I thought Deimos was a good thing and when I saw Terry had it a $1.50 chance I took the $2.20. Not really my go taking short odds but I can always throw something small on any rough hopes at huge odds as a saver.
  • psychopsycho    261 posts
    TheDiva said:

    the money is for deimos this morning... $2 into $1.75. I think closer to $2.20 was bet thursday and friday. 


    Galaxy Star also tightened up... I thought the money would be for Gatting. Hopefully Gatting tests her again and goes for home early because I reckon Gatting is the better stayer. 
    In a market which is at 130% standard Tabtouch rubbish they put up 7 days a week. Deimos been impressive, something Tabtouch never is
  • TheDivaTheDiva    11,542 posts
    they still make mistakes even though theyre betting 130%.
    its the nature of the game... 
  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    5,744 posts
    R2 Bold Victory
    R3 Vintage Sock
    R5 Caerhelan
    R6 Double Digit
    R7 Invisible Pro each way and at long odds & Middle Earth to run a cheeky race at crazy odds
    R8 Nikitas to win with Tonkatuff  & Salorsci for novelties
  • chocchoc    761 posts
    Speaking of price discrepancies though of a different realm, the good old “Paper prices” are always good for some weekly absurd anomalies.

    I’d love the $51 Settlers Creek in today’s West :-O
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,172 posts
    Pearl Trade
    Double Digit
    In Love with Paris (best)

    H-BOMBER dislikes this post.

  • The_BullThe_Bull    719 posts
    Pearl trade ew for me. This horse has a habit of making jockeys look bad, but from the widish gate, should not get strung up today like it usually does.
  • GaryHGaryH    1,000 posts
    edited June 29
    Is Willy going to see any time for the Strickland for possibly 'careless riding', or was purely an overreaction of Lucy's horse to tight racing?

    image
  • GaryHGaryH    1,000 posts
    Stewards inquired into the reason for Jockey L Warwick (ROYAL STRATA) being dislodged at the
    1600m crossing. Jockey L Warwick advised Jockey P Hall’s mount (CAPPO D’ORO) brushed the
    running rail in advance of her causing her mount to baulk and mis-stride and bumping with GALAXY
    STAR (Jockey W Pike) causing her to become unbalanced and was dislodged. No blame was attributed
    to any one rider for this incident
  • paraleticparaletic    3,147 posts
    Bring macca back, ritchie terrible in a photo.

    Uttsy likes this post.

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,663 posts
    There was something else very good about Gatting but unfortunately only noticed it after the race - $1.90 a place - wow realising only pay 1,2 but in comparison to around $1.50 the fave to win - nothing wrong with the $1.90 a drum.

    Better still it was never in doubt.
  • paraleticparaletic    3,147 posts
    edited June 30
    Loved the after race interview with bob

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,172 posts
    Galaxy Star retired officially as reported. She's done her job
  • tonytony    1,800 posts
    Off to Justify
  • TheDivaTheDiva    11,542 posts
    Thoughts on whether showmanship beats samizdat if it got clear running? Have my doubts.
  • detonatordetonator    1,725 posts
    edited June 30
    TheDiva said:

    Thoughts on whether showmanship beats samizdat if it got clear running? Have my doubts.


    I think it does Diva.
    Pikey said he should have ridden 5 yesterday.
    This was the one that got away.

    Uttsy likes this post.

  • UttsyUttsy    27 posts
    That was my impression to, how he nearly got up for third was enormous
  • jumjum    2,532 posts
    TheDiva said:

    Thoughts on whether showmanship beats samizdat if it got clear running? Have my doubts.



    I have my doubts too Diva. But what I cant understand with Pike, is why ride for luck when you are obviously on one of the best chances in the race. He does this time and time again.

  • UttsyUttsy    27 posts
    What were his other options Jum? 
    He's drawn barrier 1 on a horse which showed no gate speed in his only race start, I couldnt believe how quick he actually got him going. I had him mapped much further back.
    Does he go back to last and hope he doesnt get boxed in by another backmarker making their run? Roma Cup springs to mind where that one didnt come off! Not that I was complaining, I was on Vital Silver haha but that post race interview probably shows that hes not a fan of trying that tactic again.
    Also worth noting that riding for luck paid off with Moschard and Stageman on the same day. If Chloe had tried the same tactic on Settlers Creek instead of being a bit one eyed about getting to the outside, we probably wouldve seen a different result in that race.
  • jumjum    2,532 posts

    I thought he could have eased out at the 600 in front of Fred dag and got on the back cryptic love.

    Well that's what I had hoped when watching the race.

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