G'day Punter!

In this Discussion

Who's Online

2 Members & 10 Non Members
R1: Not sure who leads out of Black Jack Zac or One Off Delight, suspect Jack may hand up to guarantee a good earn. No real pressure in running so one of the two should be the winner. Beltane can work forward and look for a sit on Batavia On Fire, they have solid top 3 claims. Illusination pegs up to top 5. Carrera Mach probably just gets shuffled too far back to finish in the money.
Tip: No2 One Off Delight. Bet: FF:1,2/1,2,8,12/1,2,8,10,12/1,2,8,10,11,12. 100% costs $54. EQ:1,2.
R2:
Mister Rollins holds up, Jaxon drops straight to his back and Ideal liner Runs to the front after 200m. Should be obvious. They get best crack at running 2nd/3rd behind the fav. Mister Rollins was a nice run for this Monday but I do query him holding the favs back if he zips home sub 28. I give nearly all runners FF claims so it isn’t really a play for me given how short it is likely to pay.
Tip: No4 Ideal Liner. EQ:4.
R3:
Vincenzo Perugia would have to appear at least slightly vulnerable to being crossed to a couple of these, I think an attack is likely early. I expect that to come from Livura and more so Chiaroscuro who I think crosses. I’m hopeful that the early speed sets it up for a run on horse, Better Scoot. Love the engagement of Micky G. Horse has been crying out for some luck, maybe it doesn’t go as well not smothered away on the pegs but just how this looks to be run it is worth a stab.
Tip: No6 Better Scoot. Bet: Better Scoot EW. EQ:1,5,6,7.
R4:
The way Tommy Be Good is going he is entitled to have a crack at leading throughout. They do prefer to drive him with a sit and he probably races best that way but without seeing anything through the press I thought they might give leading a crack. That puts Waylade in a great spot. I thought his trial was fantastic and he ran some great races in probably slightly better grade than this last time in, I’m happy to back him. Even if they did hand up with TBG 3 back is still a good spot for Waylade to run home from. Love how Warfare is going but tracking Bob Wheel I just don’t know where he gets to in the run.
Tip: No10 Waylade. Bet: Waylade EW. FF:1,10,11/1,10,11/1,3,5,10,11/1,3,4,5,10,11. 100% costs $54. EQ:1,3,10,11. 100% costs $32, hard to see the div being anything special.
R5:
Some Coper Beach looks the obvious leader, Fifty Five Reborn is going to want to hold the position outside it. To me that makes this very much a 1,2,10,11,12 race. I love a 2 yr old that can sustain a 3 wide run so Star From The Palace is a must for me. Comes from a weaker race than the others but she will enjoy leaders back, just needs a touch of luck. Advance Your Dreams has opened a silly price, sitting on the speed I am very confident it will be finishing off hard.
Tip:No10 Star From The Palace. Bet: Advance Your Dreams 1by2. FF:1,2,10,11/1,2,10,11,12/1,2,10,11,12/1,2,10,11,12. 100% costs $96. QD:1,2,10,11,12.
R6:
I have Power And Grace crossing and just winning. Understandably the 1 will be doing all it can to hold up, I don’t think it can and it probably isn’t really going well enough. Fly in the ointment is the emergency coming in to 3 but I will back Reed to get across. Jaspervellabeach has the runs on the board and the tactical speed to put itself into the race but is a risk no trial.
Tip: No4 Power And Grace. Bet Power And Grace wins. QD:4,8,13.
R7:
I thought Dontstopbelievin could cross the 2 inside her but I don’t think any of them can hold The War Nurse. She went better than I expected last week. Maczaffair probably follows her across and has to be a danger with the drop in grade but she just doesn’t seem to have come up.
Tip: No8 The War Nurse. Bet: The War Nurse win. QD:7,8.
R8:
You have to pick Space Junk because of his ability but he hasn’t been a great race horse this time up. Gangbuster will lob a great spot and be dangerous and Cracka Star is flying for him and 2 off 10m is a good spot for him to get in front of most of these.
Tip: No2 Spacejunk. Bet: Cracka Star 1 by 2. QD:2,6,8. 100% costs $90.
R9:
Therugo does his thing here coming out running. I don’t think Natural Disaster will just hand up, seemed like DEG would like to see this horse in front at some stage. So hopefully a bit of speed can set it up for Cut For An Ace who has been crying out for some luck but may be another one who doesn’t quite go as well not smothered away. Have to take the risk and find out at the price.
Tip: No4 Cut For An Ace. Bet: Cut For An Ace win.
R10:
Parisian Party Girl returned to form the other day and will get the softest lead you will ever see here. She has to be a real threat to the fav Our Corelli who also returned to form Monday after the stable change. He looked good but I’m just not sure this is his race.
Tip: No1 Parisian Party Girl. Bet: No1 Parisian Party Girl win.

Comments

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,663 posts
    edited July 4
    Ideal Liner a future grand circuit horse and a chap like Mr. Rollins is second fave, that's what ya can call - in well.

    Vincenzo quoted $1.60 in early markets - he walked home his last 200 the other week. Not maligning gate one - just the odds!
  • curmudgeoncurmudgeon    1,346 posts
    I am with you as far as the 3 wide 2 y/o assessment goes Gilga. Star From The Palace showed nice depth as a string to her bow last start
  • JayJayJayJay    5,051 posts
    Ideal Liner has a NR of 98, Mister Rollins is a 68.
  • MarkovinaMarkovina    1,044 posts
    Gilgas preview should be in the West Australian on a Friday

    Ive had a bit of a lean  run on the punt lately - but if you read Gilgas preview - then if that doesnt get you keen to bet then nothing will

    JayJay, sonny likes this post.

  • sonnysonny    606 posts
    Giga is the best.. Maybe Betfair will pick him up!!!!Silly if they don't..
  • PackedMetalPandaPackedMetalPanda    59 posts
    I hope Tommy Be Good leads, he’s only ever led and won once in his career. A C0 event at GP as a $1.04 fav.
  • VillageKidVillageKid    1,396 posts
    Race 1- Carrera Mach
    Race 2- Ideal Liner
    Race 3- Chiaroscuro
    Race 4- Tommy Be Good
    Race 5- InTheSkyRocket
    Race 6- Power And Grace
    Race 7- Infinite Symbol
    Race 8- Space Junk
    Race 9- Natural Disaster
    Race 10- Our Corelli
  • BetonmeBetonme    123 posts
    JayJay said:

    Ideal Liner has a NR of 98, Mister Rollins is a 68.

    The worst HWOE horses all drew wide. RBD tough for them. 

    curmudgeon likes this post.

  • GilgameshGilgamesh    2,966 posts
    Just on R10. With Our Corelli $1.34ish you would assume it would go forward but I was just of the thought the Lewis stable have been so good at making race horses out of some of these animals of late that haven't been all that consistent with their desire previously. So I thought they would go back with it as they continue to educate the horse to be a more consistent race horse thus giving the 1 the super soft lead. Might not be enough for the 1 to win and may not even happen that way just how I see it playing out.

    Be nice if this weather could clear up of the next few hours.
  • curmudgeoncurmudgeon    1,346 posts
    edited July 5
    Betonme said:

    JayJay said:

    Ideal Liner has a NR of 98, Mister Rollins is a 68.

    The worst HWOE horses all drew wide. RBD tough for them. 
    No explanation has been given for the absolute refusal to apply a PBD to the HWOE system. Races are either RBD or split random draw ( GPPBD). This appears to be a policy of appeasement or bases its rationale in a contention that barrier draws are of no consequence (which are two bedfellows that contradict each other in their genesis if you think about it).
    I would suggest it flies in the face of accepted harness racing handicapping theory at the very least.

    TrackBias likes this post.

  • JayJayJayJay    5,051 posts
    Correct....no real PBD's applied other than the nonsensical split GPPD or the occasional dollars won last two starts.....a hangover from past policy decisions that should be expunged from history. I will never forget a famous utterance at one of those ill fated meetings I attended where it was stated that "Barrier Draws are not a handicapping tool".....taken straight from my notes that were written down whilst my jaw (and just about everyone else of the 15 people present) was still gaping in astonishment.
    Also, there has not been any published explanation for the ridiculous and recurrent  situation of trainers with multiple runners in a race drawing adjacent barriers. The frequency with which this occurs is beyond statistical explanation and would require a complete rewrite of all mathematical laws of probability that I learnt in depth at University. I did, at a meeting with the previous management, get assured that the computer was not "broken", that it had been audited for "glitches" and that a clean bill of health had been declared. And yet, the problem is still constantly present, week in week out. Something is not right and I am not talking about adjacent gates when a trainer has 6 or 7 of the 10 acceptors (which obviously raises the probability of the event occurring).
    For this weeks set of fixtures from Friday Night through to next Tuesday, there are seven such occurrences. Lang Inwood gets the Brownlow votes with 3 examples followed by Scott with 2 and one each to Bond (both scratched, so an uncontested  possession there) and Anderson. on what is a relatively light week. 

    TrackBias, curmudgeon likes this post.

  • JayJayJayJay    5,051 posts
    Oh, and does it happen anywhere else in Australia and do they use the same computer for doing barrier draws? Answers are Yes and I don't know. Quick look at tonight's meetings has it occurring at Wagga (twice), Melton (Zero), Albion Park (once) and Melton (five). I didn't include Hobart because of the Ben Yole factor where he often provides more than 50% of the acceptors per race.
  • GilgameshGilgamesh    2,966 posts
    I was feeling pretty good about myself myself after race 5 with a handy little profit already and bets to come in every race but it all came crashing down from there!

    Worst of all I backed Chiarascuro, Livura and Bettor Scoot all to win and didn't take any novelties!

    Clearly drive of the night Maddison Brown getting Advance Your Dream into the placings :D

    Can someone tell me what the bit of gear under the Deb Lewis horses The War Nurse and Our Corelli is called and its designed purpose. Cheers.
  • curmudgeoncurmudgeon    1,346 posts
     Anti choking collar Gilga......designed to sit under the throat and alleviate airway issues....ie the piano accordian effect on the airway when a horse tucks it head in and hangs on.

    Gilgamesh likes this post.

Sign In or Register to comment.