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The Other Belmont Preview for 6/7/19 by TMP (still)

West Australian Racing
Some classy races are on tomorrow at Belmont; but none are cancelled du to inadequate acceptances.
The weather and track conditions are the big variables. CRIS WA now says Heavy9 with 45mm last 24 hours; nearly 2 inches in the old.
If I can spot some European or NZ breeding, it's a good direction.

R/1 Laverodd was so disappointing at his first start that I jumped off. But then I saw his European dad and the jockey I keep barking about plus the trainer who tries so hard for his owners; so I am back on.
No Apology was awesome first up this time and the extra distance seems to suit greatly. but it is  a funny price!
The fave's barrier trials were v v good and look at the barrier and the rider. He bolted in a barrier trial on Soft5 but he is v short.

R/2 Beat the Devil was looking like a big chance here for me but the heavy has put me off.
Battle Storm is courageous and strong; so I am on him again; never lost on him yet!

R/3 Dont Fuss has the best form and seems to handle the wet.
The only other one I can see is Danny George. He is v lightly raced and has won in the wet;

R/4 True Attraction is at 1.12.
I was on him last start when he seemed to hit a real flat spot around the turn and lost ground on the others.; then switched on and surged.
I tipped Play Hard a few weeks ago when he was scratched; then forgot about him when he ran a greaat race at v big odds. His dam is by Danehill and some of them did well in the wet. I hope he lobs along in front again; once more at v good odds.

R/5 Last time the rider of Ping me Another said the filly failed to handle the soft5 conditions; what about the heavy?
I kept looking for a filly to lob close to the lead; ended up with Heavenly Dust; perfect ride last time by Benny  Paterson; great odds.
The Galah filly looked promising but I switched off her becos of all her tries; the fave should bolt in but so short.

R/6 I was not inspired by the big distance back up for Friar Fox despite the amazing win for me last time.
I can see good arguments for 3,4,5,10,11 and 13.
Noir de Rue looks due (good rhyme too).

R/7 Horses 2 and 9 seem to handle the wet with Spirit and Fire racing upfront and Route 88 coming from the back.
For some reason I keep looking at Ooraah; good sire whose progeny often handle the wet;under rated trainer in my opinion;$44 a place on tote but only $7 a place fixed!

R/8 If it is heavy, how do they beat Great Again with a vigorous rider on top?
Friar's Gift exploded in the wet at Ascot previously; but he is 1st emerg.
I wonder if Miracle Man can handle the heavy. He has raced v well fresh in the past and has at times suggested a touch of class.
Chix Pic is v lightly raced; so with the wily trainer can he handle the wet and the longer distance?

Well, in clossing, any suggestions about my guesses are very appreciated.
Don't forget the losing coach interviewed after the match who said 'We had a great team on paper. Unfortunately we played on grass.' 
All the Best.
+1 -1

Ridersonthestorm33, thefalcon likes this post.

Comments

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,663 posts
    edited July 5
    Two things can't stand - small fields and long odds on fave's, so going to do an all up tote win bet on the three of them Battle Storm - True Attraction - Mystery Miss - to get me more riled up when one of 'em gets rolled!

    Going to have one last crack at the distance race - he must be fit - he's been grinding home ok - see if Jarad Noske can get him into a drum - Beg To Differ.

    See my 'ol fave mare back today at 40/1 - Flower Of Scotland. $2.50 each way!
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,663 posts
    edited July 5
    If you notice Odds and Evens on the payout result dividends on Sky Channel that's NSW branch of Tabcorp introducing a new bet type - Selecting whether the quinella is going to be two even numbers or two odd numbers - or a split - one of each.

    It's been brought in to help pay for the championship races and to introduce the new generation of younger punter's to the sport of kings.
    Goodness gracious me, surely they jest on both counts.

    The new Trio bet ( any 3 in order ) has a takeout rate of 21% - they couldn't make it 20% or better still 15% - always on the lookout to squeeze that extra 1% - and they do!

    Thank goodness WA Tab for the time being staying out of the trio - milking one pool to barely lift another off the ground.

    Odds and Evens Quinella perhaps does have some merit ( just trying to find where ) - there's been some mixed reports on the takeout rate - it's always in the very fine print of these announcements.
  • JellJell    931 posts
    I don't mind Crosley Hotshot each way in R6 after being scratched from easier on Wednesday.

    He's been racing well since coming over from NSW and is just an out and out stayer who flew home last start. Big jump in grade but I think he's up to it, Lee Newman in the saddle a bonus also, he's been riding great lately :-c
  • thefalconthefalcon    15,852 posts
    thanks for the review piker, hope we can find a winner or two.. :-bd
  • rooboyrooboy    1,310 posts
    Spot on Jell!Had just finished watching the replays and was about to post!
    L.Newman on and is not a 30/1 pop by any means!

  • pikerpiker    323 posts
    Thanks Falc.
    I was watching the replays again and am seeing One Point Lady in the 5th in a different light; v solid at the end of her races.
  • chocchoc    761 posts
    Cards like today are commonly referred to as:
    Ernie Manning Days

    Uttsy, thefalcon, PackedMetalPanda likes this post.

  • paraleticparaletic    3,147 posts
    Race in WA and get your ass kicked by the best breeder in the southern hemisphere. Maybe owners only can start running this as their promo
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,172 posts
    I'm 6/6 in the tipping comp [-O<

    SLIPPERGOLDEN likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    15,852 posts
    hope u backed the 3rd and 6th......whats the last two?
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,172 posts
    No bets today!

    Harry Thomas and Nikitas
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,172 posts
    <:-P

    SLIPPERGOLDEN, Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,663 posts
    edited July 6
    A highlight of the day - Ihtsahymn carrying clickety click (66) kilo's to win first up over 1400 metres in second gear at Broome $6.50 on tote, missed the kick by close to two lengths and won with the General Peter Hall sitting up and smiling for the camera.

    Other highlight it's difficult to keep up but think Pikey has ridden 12 winners from last Saturday to today - three meetings 4-3-5.
  • hashhash    6,353 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    <:-P

    Harry Thomas didn't win though......  :-?? :-@ :P

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,663 posts
    edited July 6
    Backed Beg To Differ for a place earlier - could not have been ridden any better - got every inside run it could - ease around heels to win the race and said barleese.

    Liked the run of Cockatiel today - reckon one that will continue to get over ground. She settled well and ran the race right out - beaten by a classier one.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,172 posts

    A highlight of the day - Ihtsahymn carrying clickety click (66) kilo's to win first up over 1400 metres in second gear at Broome $6.50 on tote, missed the kick by close to two lengths and won with the General Peter Hall sitting up and smiling for the camera.

    Other highlight it's difficult to keep up but think Pikey has ridden 12 winners from last Saturday to today - three meetings 4-3-5.




    It would have to be the cup winner on that performance this far out. That was easy
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,663 posts
    edited July 6
    Same line of thought Bomber with his best form over a bit of ground, was going to say on today's run he will be winning the Broome Cup - but am not going to put the mock on him - yet. He won't be $6.50 either.

    Broome Cup think is end of the month or around that time. Or perhaps August ? Before Kalgoorlie round begins anyway.

    Wonder what weight he gets for the Cup ?
  • tonytony    1,800 posts
    Trainer said during the week that the first target is Darwin Cup (5th August)

    Maybe then back for Broome Cup (17th)

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,663 posts
    edited July 6
    Darwin Cup - think that's 2000 metres..should be no problems with the dirt track..they can run along in that race, they often run it hard with moves aplenty.

    Good luck to him, might be eachway odds too in the tougher assignment.
  • detonatordetonator    1,725 posts
    Is there an issue with CRIS ? Can't get the replays for yesterday.
  • tonytony    1,800 posts
    Looks like it, nothing availabel for past meetings (at least a couple I have checked) either
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,172 posts
    detonator said:

    Is there an issue with CRIS ? Can't get the replays for yesterday.




    Worked last night for me, haven't checked today though
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