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Belmont Preview 13/7 with Daniel Cripps

West Australian Racing

Before The Bounce

While the preview debut back in
June produced a few winners, I will admit I erred on the side of caution by way
of recommending some each way selections. There is more than one way to skin a
cat but personally I don’t bet each way. Place betting is inefficient relative
to win betting and while it can be frustrating during runs where horses at ‘money
back the place’ odds are running 2nd and 3rd if you have
the patience to let natural variance run its course then you will be better off
in the long term. So moving forward all staking recommendations will generally
be win only with the occasional place bet or 1x5 place heavy bet on runners at longer
odds.

Anyway, refreshingly back to an
eight race card after nineteen races over the two midweek meetings which have
taken their toll both mentally and on the wallet. But as they say, money lost
nothing lost, confidence lost everything lost so looking forward to getting
stuck in Saturday. Spoiler alert- there is a special on the card. We should be
racing on a Good4 and the rail goes to the 5m position for the first time this
season. Belmont has been playing quite evenly over the last few weeks and I’d
expect more of the same with a lean towards horses who settle in the first half
as per usual.

 

Race 1- Pontiff On Top

Pays to be on speed in the
juvenile races so I’m going to side with the likely leader in HOOROO LADS to
kick off proceedings. Was unwanted by the market on debut but went straight to
the front and kept on fighting to score in what was a strong rating event. This
is harder but with natural improvement there is no reason why he can’t make it
two from two.

There were a few whispers that
the Casey yard had a smart one in LAVERROD and his trial suggested they might
be on the money. Unfortunately for connections he had no luck on debut but did
a good job to run in the placings. Drawn to get all the favours and will be
hard to hold out. SIGNIFICANT HERO is a half-brother to Aquanita Stakes winner
True Attraction who might be looking for further but trialled nicely while IS A
BOMBSHELL also trialled superbly and the shades go on for her return.

Intriguing race but happy to have
something small on HOOROO LADS to get us off to a flyer. Pontiff to lead, kick
and win- simple caper this horse stuff.

Selections:

HOOROO LADS – LAVERROD –
SIGNIFICANT HERO – IS A BOMBSHELL

Betting Strategy:

$30 wins HOOROO LADS

 

Race 2- ?

I couldn’t even think of a name
for this race which is probably an indicator of my excitement levels towards
it. You can make a case for over half the field and there are a lot of unknowns
involved.  They should scamper along here
with BOS TAURUS and LADY STINGRAY engaged.

I’ll throw METRO BOY on top off
the back of a very nice trial and good peak figures. Just cautious of where he ends
up in the run but if Noske can get one off the fence just behind the speed then
he can be in the finish.

ROUTE EIGHTY EIGHT doesn’t win
but her form is good, is on the back up and will certainly know the Pontiff is aboard
when he goes for the stick. Big watch on former NSW galloper SHINJU who is now
part of the Gangemi team. As we saw on Wednesday they know how to get their
runners to fire without a trial so maybe there’s an omen bet after the Origin
decider. I’m not sure if GLASGOW GIRL is suited dropping back to the short
course but Pike is winning for fun at the moment so she goes in.

On a day where there look a few
nice plays, this race isn’t one of them. Pass.

Selections:

METRO BOY – ROUTE EIGHTY EIGHT –
SHINJU – GLASGOW GIRL

Betting Strategy:

No Bet.

 

Race 3- Pike Price

At the time of writing I am still
waiting for TabTouch to realise they have got the decimal incorrectly placed on
the price of SALCITY. Sure, Pike is winning on just about anything at the
moment but how a horse who was beaten fair and square in a moderate maiden is
shorter than a horse like ESSENTIAL SPICE who almost knocked off Samizdat is
remarkable. Update: All the corporates are up and it’s still $7 across the
board, if we don’t see north of $20 late I’ll give this game away.

The ambulance will have a hard time
keeping up in this event with ESSENTIAL SPICE trying to cross FLOWER OF WAR,
DOUBLE BUBBLE and SALCITY. The first 100m will be similar to a Kyrgios press
conference; exciting and unpredictable, I’m really looking forward to it.

The frenetic pace sets this race
up for FESTIVAL MISS. Thought she might have found the 1000m a touch sharp
first up but managed to score thanks to a rails hugging ride from the Wizard.
Pike off is never ideal but the step up to 1200m suits and its worth noting
that a lot of riders seemed to veer off the fence the day she resumed so the
fact she used the inside pad may add some merit to that win.

The danger looks to be LIPSTICK
FLICKERS who was scratched from a very suitable race on Wednesday for this
event. Shooter should be able to come across with the speed drawn on his outside
and be poised to strike as they turn for home. ESSENTIAL SPICE is flying but
again draws poorly with speed inside while CRYPTIC LOVE can run a race at odds
now Turner doesn’t have to focus on keeping Pike in a pocket and in the process
wrecking the day of everyone who got the $4.80 about Showmanship.

Backing Kirby to win in the
cerise and white silks for the second time in three days with a saver on
LIPSTICK FLICKERS.

Selections:

FESTIVAL MISS – LIPSTICK FLICKERS
– ESSENTIAL SPICE – CRYPTIC LOVE

Betting Strategy:

$50 wins FESTIVAL MISS and $10
wins LIPSTICK FLICKERS

 

Race 4- His Time to Shine

GATTING should have a spring in
his step when he doesn’t see the star mare cantering to the gates. I’ll admit I
thought she was a risk in her final outing however while form is temporary,
class is permanent.

With Galaxy Star out of the
picture GATTING should dominate a set weights race like this. Newman will look
to find a bit of cover from the middle alley and with even luck he will be
winning well.

As the market suggests COME PLAY
WITH ME is a clear second pick and his best figures can certainly make the
favourite earn it despite a month between runs. I was keen to follow MR ALBY
after a really good effort last week but will wait for something easier while
EYE ART covered more ground than Burke and Wills last start. Those two should
fight it out for third.

Selections:

GATTING – COME PLAY WITH ME – MR
ALBY – EYE ART

Betting Strategy:

No Bet.

 

Race 5- Tricky Gates

Another tough race with the
winner well concealed. Despite the awkward draw I’m going to stick with the
Guineas place getter COMING AROUND. He ran out of his skin behind the talented
Peters pair. Easier said than done but if Parnham can find a spot midfield three
deep with cover then he will be hard to hold out.

Similar proposition for FRED DAG
who will appreciate the step up in trip and gets the shades for the first time.
Again, if Whiting can get cover just forward of midfield from gate 9 then he
will be making his run with the top selection. The Hayden Ballantyne trained MANKIND
showed a nice turn of foot once finding galloping room to score in a similar
event and is drawn to get an identical run in transit. Fun fact: Two (2)- races
he has won this preparation and goals Freo kicked in the Derby. DISTANT TRILOGY
was unlucky in the same race and is right in the mix.

Not a race I’m keen to get
involved in and to be honest I’ll already have one eye on race 6 while this is
being run and won.

Selections:

COMING AROUND – FRED DAG – MANKIND
– DISTANT TRILOGY

Betting Strategy:

No Bet.

 

Race 6- Free Money

Ignore the race name, there is no
such thing in this business (unless you’ve been laying my bets over the last
couple of days) but far out I am keen on the Michael Lane trained galloper FREE
TRADE.

Last start he ran a cracker after
doing work early to slot in just behind a hot speed and then having to dodge
the tiring Tranquilla Sunrise who beat the ambulance in a photo. Was resuming
off a 42 day freshen up so that run would have tightened him right up for this
event.

Parnham jumps off but Kyra Yuill
is in superb form on the country circuit and gets a golden opportunity to notch
up another city winner and show she can mix it with the best. The map looks
fantastic, with no other leader engaged Yuill can dictate in front which sets
up the perfect platform for the horse to reproduce his best figures which rate
through the roof.

So in short, fitness- tick, map-
tick, ratings- tick. Not sure what more I can say in fact I better stop before
I end up having another bet.

After all of that, there is a
danger. PYM’S ROYALE was enormous first up in the same race, going back from a
wide draw and absolutely savaging the line when it was all over. From 4 Lucy
can sit just off the speed and he will be the one emerging from the pack in an
attempt to run down the leader.

STAGEMAN goes in for third, he
beat the top two selections home last start thanks to a Pike pearler but I
think he will have his work cut out in repeating that from the weight swing
alone. Currently $4 but if you like him then shop late as I think you could see
close to double figures. I will throw in GET OVER IT for fourth who has
recently joined the Bairstow team and has been trialling the house down.

If you haven’t read the signals
I’m quite bullish on the chances of FREE TRADE. Baked beans for dinner if I’m
wrong, prayers up.

Selections:

FREE TRADE – PYM’S ROYALE –
STAGEMAN – GET OVER IT

Betting Strategy:

$100 wins FREE TRADE

 

Race 7- North Korea

They will roll along here over
the mile, Newman jumps back on THE VELVET KING and I can’t imagine him doing
anything other than working across from the wide draw to find the front.
NELSON’S FLIGHT can follow him across to race in the breeze.

Looks a tricky race and I’m going
to tip around the first two in the market. MISSILE LAUNCH didn’t fire last
preparation (although 2 lengths off Achernar Star doesn’t read too badly) but
if I recall correctly the camp stated that he had some issues. First up over
the mile but off the back of two outstanding 1450m trials should see him primed
to run a big race at a double figure quote.

DOUBLE DIGIT wasn’t beaten far
last start after having to go around a tiring runner and then switch back to
the inside to miss the wayward leader. Third up now he is ready to peak and if
Shooter can get an economical run just off the speed then he goes close.

NELSON’S FLIGHT was an enormous
run last start, doing a power of work to find the front and still managed to
give a good kick in the straight when he could have been forgiven for throwing
in the towel. You have to respect THE VELVET KING who did what he had to do
when being sent back to the trials. He will lead and be hard to get past but
I’m just loath to take the shorts about a horse who doesn’t have the best
racing manners.

Could easily have a couple more
picks in this race and still miss the winner but in saying that I think if MISSILE
LAUNCH brings his A game he can give this a shake.

SELECTIONS:

MISSILE LAUNCH – DOUBLE DIGIT –
NELSON’S FLIGHT – THE VELVET KING

Betting Strategy:

$20 wins MISSILE LAUNCH and $10
wins DOUBLE DIGIT

 

Race 8- The Lucky Last

I found it hard to knock the
favourite LORDHELPMERUN, he ticks a lot of boxes but I just query if there is
any value in the current quote. So for that reason I’m going to side with LUCKY
ROAR in the last. He hasn’t fired this preparation but his best figures back in
December are good, gets back on a dry track and if Brown can find the front and
dictate then he can be in the mix at big odds.

LORDHELPMERUN goes in for second.
Form around Moschard and The Velvet King read well for a race like this and he
will get all the favours from the low draw. MAKE MINE CHAMPERS rattled home
last start and Pike jumps on, if they are making ground late in the day then
look for her to flash home while PLAYING MARIKA has been forced to make
sustained runs from wide draws in her last couple but should get a more economical
trip here.

Not overally confident by any
stretch of the imagination but I think we can round out the day with a small
play on one at a big price.

Selections:

LUCKY ROAR – LORDHELPMERUN – MAKE MINE CHAMPERS – PLAYING
MARIKA

Betting Strategy:

$5 wins and $15 places LUCKY ROAR

 

 

Comments

  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    5,779 posts
    Thorough analysis
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    9,236 posts
    edited July 13
    Will spend ( invest, lose ) $120 and just see what goes wrong here....
    Trifecta's straight down the line.
    1. Gatting 2. Come Play With Me 3. Eye Art - 30 times.
    1. Gatting 2. Come Play With Me 3. Mr Alby - 20 times.
    1. Gatting 2. Eye Art 3. Come Play With Me - 20 times.

    Exacta
    1. Come Play With Me 2. Gatting - 50 times.

    Really liked Pyms Royale last run, got home hard and yep Nelsons Flight not entitled to hold onto third previous effort, just hope hasn't flattened him, was tough as teak.

    Pikey and Make Mine Champers in the lucky last - sure to be a popular double.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    9,236 posts
    edited July 13
    If you fancy Come Play With Me to knock over Gatting - you'll find better value in doing the exacta or trifecta than backing CPWM to win...providing Gatting runs second!

    Eye Art interests a little bit, if something goes wrong with the logical hands down quinella.

    Or to keep it really simple in a pay 1,2 only race...CPWM should be the greatest place bet since Veandercross was placed in the 1992 Caulfield Cup :-S
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,485 posts
    If there is leader bias coming to the last there is definitely one I want to be on. #13 Play Hard

    My best is Double Digit Race 7.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,485 posts

    If you fancy Come Play With Me to knock over Gatting - you'll find better value in doing the exacta or trifecta than backing CPWM to win...providing Gatting runs second!

    Eye Art interests a little bit, if something goes wrong with the logical hands down quinella.

    Or to keep it really simple in a pay 1,2 only race...CPWM should be the greatest place bet since Veandercross was placed in the 1992 Caulfield Cup :-S




    Win 5.50
    Exacta 4.80

    [-X
  • paraleticparaletic    3,230 posts
    Well done to the winner there, better horse won on the day.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,485 posts
    Gee I reckon all those punters that have been constantly backing Friaresque jumped off today looking at the price.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    9,236 posts
    Yeah with the exacta at the time was looking at the fixed odds of Come Play With Me, think was $3.80 SP was around $4...never credited would pay $5.50 on tote, as soon as saw that thought that's the end of the exacta paying more.

    Exacta did pay a lot better than CPWM fixed odds, but yes less than the amazing tote price of 9/2.
    Gatting on tote smashed into $1.20. Every other horse including Gatting was way way unders on tote compared to fixed odds.

    Come Play With Me way overs on tote, but the best dividend again ( just like Gattings $1.90 a place the other week ) was the $1.80 a place CPWM on tote versus Gatting $1.20 straight out.

    One thing I should've been awake to a little bit was the exacta takeout rate of 20% in comparison to the tote 14.something.

    Exacta of $4.80 was pretty good ( this morning thought $4.30 to $5 ) especially in comparison to fixed odds SP but yep in comparison to amazing tote win dividend...I look silly haha.
  • LETSDOTHISLETSDOTHIS    33 posts
    Seems it was a total strip out for everyone today :(( onto next week :-h
  • RodentRodent    4,992 posts
    edited July 15

    Seems it was a total strip out for everyone today :(( onto next week :-h

    I had a good day. I had CPWM and Gatting equal, Backed CPWM at $3.10 and kept backing it as it blew. Ended up inadvertently having about double what I intended.
     Lordhelpmerun winning the last halved my profit for the day :(
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