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The All New Perth Preview - 13th July

West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts

Before The Bounce

While the preview debut back in June produced a few winners, I will admit I erred on the side of caution by way of recommending some each way selections. There is more than one way to skin a cat but personally I don’t bet each way. Place betting is inefficient relative to win betting and while it can be frustrating during runs where horses at ‘money back the place’ odds are running 2nd and 3rd if you have the patience to let natural variance run its course then you will be better off in the long term. So moving forward all staking recommendations will generally be win only with the occasional place bet or 1x5 place heavy bet on runners at longer odds.

Anyway, refreshingly back to an eight race card after nineteen races over the two midweek meetings which have taken their toll both mentally and on the wallet. But as they say, money lost nothing lost, confidence lost everything lost so looking forward to getting stuck in Saturday. Spoiler alert- there is a special on the card. We should be racing on a Good4 and the rail goes to the 5m position for the first time this season. Belmont has been playing quite evenly over the last few weeks and I’d expect more of the same with a lean towards horses who settle in the first half as per usual.

Race 1- Pontiff On Top

Pays to be on speed in the juvenile races so I’m going to side with the likely leader in HOOROO LADS to kick off proceedings. Was unwanted by the market on debut but went straight to the front and kept on fighting to score in what was a strong rating event. This is harder but with natural improvement there is no reason why he can’t make it two from two.

There were a few whispers that the Casey yard had a smart one in LAVERROD and his trial suggested they might be on the money. Unfortunately for connections he had no luck on debut but did a good job to run in the placings. Drawn to get all the favours and will be hard to hold out. SIGNIFICANT HERO is a half-brother to Aquanita Stakes winner True Attraction who might be looking for further but trialled nicely while IS A BOMBSHELL also trialled superbly and the shades go on for her return.

Intriguing race but happy to have something small on HOOROO LADS to get us off to a flyer. Pontiff to lead, kick and win- simple caper this horse stuff.

Selections:

HOOROO LADS – LAVERROD – SIGNIFICANT HERO – IS A BOMBSHELL

Betting Strategy:

$30 wins HOOROO LADS

 

Race 2- ?

I couldn’t even think of a name for this race which is probably an indicator of my excitement levels towards it. You can make a case for over half the field and there are a lot of unknowns involved.  They should scamper along here with BOS TAURUS and LADY STINGRAY engaged.

I’ll throw METRO BOY on top off the back of a very nice trial and good peak figures. Just cautious of where he ends up in the run but if Noske can get one off the fence just behind the speed then he can be in the finish.

ROUTE EIGHTY EIGHT doesn’t win but her form is good, is on the back up and will certainly know the Pontiff is aboard when he goes for the stick. Big watch on former NSW galloper SHINJU who is now part of the Gangemi team. As we saw on Wednesday they know how to get their runners to fire without a trial so maybe there’s an omen bet after the Origin decider. I’m not sure if GLASGOW GIRL is suited dropping back to the short course but Pike is winning for fun at the moment so she goes in.

On a day where there look a few nice plays, this race isn’t one of them. Pass.

Selections:

METRO BOY – ROUTE EIGHTY EIGHT – SHINJU – GLASGOW GIRL

Betting Strategy:

No Bet.

 

Race 3- Pike Price

At the time of writing I am still waiting for TabTouch to realise they have got the decimal incorrectly placed on the price of SALCITY. Sure, Pike is winning on just about anything at the moment but how a horse who was beaten fair and square in a moderate maiden is shorter than a horse like ESSENTIAL SPICE who almost knocked off Samizdat is remarkable. Update: All the corporates are up and it’s still $7 across the board, if we don’t see north of $20 late I’ll give this game away.

The ambulance will have a hard time keeping up in this event with ESSENTIAL SPICE trying to cross FLOWER OF WAR, DOUBLE BUBBLE and SALCITY. The first 100m will be similar to a Kyrgios press conference; exciting and unpredictable, I’m really looking forward to it.

The frenetic pace sets this race up for FESTIVAL MISS. Thought she might have found the 1000m a touch sharp first up but managed to score thanks to a rails hugging ride from the Wizard. Pike off is never ideal but the step up to 1200m suits and its worth noting that a lot of riders seemed to veer off the fence the day she resumed so the fact she used the inside pad may add some merit to that win.

The danger looks to be LIPSTICK FLICKERS who was scratched from a very suitable race on Wednesday for this event. Shooter should be able to come across with the speed drawn on his outside and be poised to strike as they turn for home. ESSENTIAL SPICE is flying but again draws poorly with speed inside while CRYPTIC LOVE can run a race at odds now Turner doesn’t have to focus on keeping Pike in a pocket and in the process wrecking the day of everyone who got the $4.80 about Showmanship.

Backing Kirby to win in the cerise and white silks for the second time in three days with a saver on LIPSTICK FLICKERS.

Selections:

FESTIVAL MISS – LIPSTICK FLICKERS – ESSENTIAL SPICE – CRYPTIC LOVE

Betting Strategy:

$50 wins FESTIVAL MISS and $10 wins LIPSTICK FLICKERS

 

Race 4- His Time to Shine

GATTING should have a spring in his step when he doesn’t see the star mare cantering to the gates. I’ll admit I thought she was a risk in her final outing however while form is temporary, class is permanent.

With Galaxy Star out of the picture GATTING should dominate a set weights race like this. Newman will look to find a bit of cover from the middle alley and with even luck he will be winning well.

As the market suggests COME PLAY WITH ME is a clear second pick and his best figures can certainly make the favourite earn it despite a month between runs. I was keen to follow MR ALBY after a really good effort last week but will wait for something easier while EYE ART covered more ground than Burke and Wills last start. Those two should fight it out for third.

Selections:

GATTING – COME PLAY WITH ME – MR ALBY – EYE ART

Betting Strategy:

No Bet.

 

Race 5- Tricky Gates

Another tough race with the winner well concealed. Despite the awkward draw I’m going to stick with the Guineas place getter COMING AROUND. He ran out of his skin behind the talented Peters pair. Easier said than done but if Parnham can find a spot midfield three deep with cover then he will be hard to hold out.

Similar proposition for FRED DAG who will appreciate the step up in trip and gets the shades for the first time. Again, if Whiting can get cover just forward of midfield from gate 9 then he will be making his run with the top selection. The Hayden Ballantyne trained MANKIND showed a nice turn of foot once finding galloping room to score in a similar event and is drawn to get an identical run in transit. Fun fact: Two (2)- races he has won this preparation and goals Freo kicked in the Derby. DISTANT TRILOGY was unlucky in the same race and is right in the mix.

Not a race I’m keen to get involved in and to be honest I’ll already have one eye on race 6 while this is being run and won.

Selections:

COMING AROUND – FRED DAG – MANKIND – DISTANT TRILOGY

Betting Strategy:

No Bet.

 

Race 6- Free Money

Ignore the race name, there is no such thing in this business (unless you’ve been laying my bets over the last couple of days) but far out I am keen on the Michael Lane trained galloper FREE TRADE.

Last start he ran a cracker after doing work early to slot in just behind a hot speed and then having to dodge the tiring Tranquilla Sunrise who beat the ambulance in a photo. Was resuming off a 42 day freshen up so that run would have tightened him right up for this event.

Parnham jumps off but Kyra Yuill is in superb form on the country circuit and gets a golden opportunity to notch up another city winner and show she can mix it with the best. The map looks fantastic, with no other leader engaged Yuill can dictate in front which sets up the perfect platform for the horse to reproduce his best figures which rate through the roof.

So in short, fitness- tick, map- tick, ratings- tick. Not sure what more I can say in fact I better stop before I end up having another bet.

After all of that, there is a danger. PYM’S ROYALE was enormous first up in the same race, going back from a wide draw and absolutely savaging the line when it was all over. From 4 Lucy can sit just off the speed and he will be the one emerging from the pack in an attempt to run down the leader.

STAGEMAN goes in for third, he beat the top two selections home last start thanks to a Pike pearler but I think he will have his work cut out in repeating that from the weight swing alone. Currently $4 but if you like him then shop late as I think you could see close to double figures. I will throw in GET OVER IT for fourth who has recently joined the Bairstow team and has been trialling the house down.

If you haven’t read the signals I’m quite bullish on the chances of FREE TRADE. Baked beans for dinner if I’m wrong, prayers up.

Selections:

FREE TRADE – PYM’S ROYALE – STAGEMAN – GET OVER IT

Betting Strategy:

$100 wins FREE TRADE

 

Race 7- North Korea

They will roll along here over the mile, Newman jumps back on THE VELVET KING and I can’t imagine him doing anything other than working across from the wide draw to find the front. NELSON’S FLIGHT can follow him across to race in the breeze.

Looks a tricky race and I’m going to tip around the first two in the market. MISSILE LAUNCH didn’t fire last preparation (although 2 lengths off Achernar Star doesn’t read too badly) but if I recall correctly the camp stated that he had some issues. First up over the mile but off the back of two outstanding 1450m trials should see him primed to run a big race at a double figure quote.

DOUBLE DIGIT wasn’t beaten far last start after having to go around a tiring runner and then switch back to the inside to miss the wayward leader. Third up now he is ready to peak and if Shooter can get an economical run just off the speed then he goes close.

NELSON’S FLIGHT was an enormous run last start, doing a power of work to find the front and still managed to give a good kick in the straight when he could have been forgiven for throwing in the towel. You have to respect THE VELVET KING who did what he had to do when being sent back to the trials. He will lead and be hard to get past but I’m just loath to take the shorts about a horse who doesn’t have the best racing manners.

Could easily have a couple more picks in this race and still miss the winner but in saying that I think if MISSILE LAUNCH brings his A game he can give this a shake.

SELECTIONS:

MISSILE LAUNCH – DOUBLE DIGIT – NELSON’S FLIGHT – THE VELVET KING

Betting Strategy:

$20 wins MISSILE LAUNCH and $10 wins DOUBLE DIGIT

 

Race 8- The Lucky Last

I found it hard to knock the favourite LORDHELPMERUN, he ticks a lot of boxes but I just query if there is any value in the current quote. So for that reason I’m going to side with LUCKY ROAR in the last. He hasn’t fired this preparation but his best figures back in December are good, gets back on a dry track and if Brown can find the front and dictate then he can be in the mix at big odds.

LORDHELPMERUN goes in for second. Form around Moschard and The Velvet King read well for a race like this and he will get all the favours from the low draw. MAKE MINE CHAMPERS rattled home last start and Pike jumps on, if they are making ground late in the day then look for her to flash home while PLAYING MARIKA has been forced to make sustained runs from wide draws in her last couple but should get a more economical trip here.

Not overally confident by any stretch of the imagination but I think we can round out the day with a small play on one at a big price.

Selections:

LUCKY ROAR – LORDHELPMERUN – MAKE MINE CHAMPERS – PLAYING MARIKA

Betting Strategy:

$5 wins and $15 places LUCKY ROAR

 

 
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