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Odds On Punters V Small Fields

West Australian Racing
Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
Might be nit-picking a little here because odds on fave's do win in small fields, of course they do, but it's marvellous how often they get rolled too. Odds on fave's for the average punter can be a case of darned if you do and darned if you don't.

Here's four recently off the top of the top of the head and their tote price's that became the bank teller's nightmare result.

Galaxy Star field of six $1.30 - rolled.
Gatting field of seven $1.20 - rolled.
Battle Storm field of five $1.30 - rolled.
Mystery Miss field of five $1-10 - rolled.

Sometimes it's not as simple as it looks. The spider web awaits. Overall corporate's eat the shorty straight out backers for breakfast - a lot on to pay out little.

Comments

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited July 2019
    Slight mistake there - Galaxy Star was actually $1.20 on tote ( not $1.30 ) when runner up to Gatting in the Hyperion Stakes, Gatting started $8.50 on tote and $9.50 fixed odds, then next run he went down at 1/5 ($1.20 ) himself in a field of seven.

    Mystery Miss paid $1 money back for a place - the you can't win - but you can lose bet - will leave that for another day.

  • RodentRodent    7,025 posts
    The more obvious a winner is the less likely it's a good bet. The converse applies. When the planets align and a horse's form looks terrible but we can find legitimate excuses, it is often a good bet.
     After all, it's about value. 

    How much superior to the opposition do you have to be to justify $1.20?
     Hypothetical....if True Attraction were up against Mystery Miss yesterday, what would the prices have been? Pretty close I would say as True Attraction looked more suited to the step up in trip.
     Now compare True Attraction and Rivalry Galore. RG compares well. Now Rivalry Galore improving rapidly into a distance to suit......nek minnit he is $16 on betfair against MM at $1.22. Sorry but that is way too big a differential.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    Yes and realise talking after the event, but the differential between Gatting @1/5 tote ($1.20 ) and Come Play With Me 9/2 ( $5.50 ). Way too far apart fixed as well, tote amazingly so.
  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    7,660 posts
    What was the turnover like on this race yesterday ?
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited July 2019
    Not sure Damien, but tote holds on fields of five are normally poor for obvious reasons. Good place money on Mystery Miss - at least they got their money back for the drum. Not a cent more though. The ACCC boys should look into that. Can't win - but can lose.

    Cmon Tabcorp you make squillions - offer a little more than handing the punter his money back when he/she has "won" on the race.

    Just on the odds on pops - there is one common denominator in three of the results - Pikey and small fields when looks to be on the "logical" winner - instead of being around $1.70 to $1.80 there probably going at $1.50 and a lot less!

    Can't blame that on the Gatting v CPWM differential though.
    But whatever the odds it's in the eye of the beholder - some see the $1.2 or $1.40 and think that's a good price - some see it as $1.20 and think that just means it's going to win - I'll back it too.

    Been pretty good results overall for the punter at Belmont Park - but long odds on can be a trap.

    hash likes this post.

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