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Belmont Saturday 27th July with Crippa

West Australian Racing

For those asking where the preview was
last week, it was meant to kick off in parallel with the new tipping comp.
Unfortunately Tabtouch are still ironing out a few IT issues so they have also
put the previews on the hold. Not sure what the hold-up fixing it is, maybe all
of their resources are going into making sure they don’t take any bets on
Saturday’s early markets. Anyway in the meantime the PTT guys have given me the
green light to post a shortened preview or “best bets” until the tipping comp
gets up and running.

It looks a decent betting card on
Saturday. The rail going back to the true position should ensure a track with
little bias unlike the one we saw on Wednesday which the magpies during nesting
season enjoyed.

 

Race 1- Trains like Tarzan plays like
..?

A juvenile event with a number of
first starters, not the criteria that normally interests me but I just can’t
get the trial of EXCELLENT DREAM out of my head. He sat in the box seat that
day and when the gap opened up he went through stylishly under minimal riding. It
is worth noting the talented Amarillo Rose struggled to match motors with him
and he ran similar time to multiple Listed race winner Rebel King.

MIA DOLCE has been up since the war but
has race experience on her side and maps to land in front, from there she is
the one they will all need to run down. SPECIAL CHOICE trialled like a nice
horse and while she will go around a Pike/Peters price that duo is very hard to
beat, she should get all the favours from the low draw. One at odds who could
surprise is EXCELESTIAL who made good ground on debut and maps to settle a lot
closer while I’d be silly not to mention BOOMTASTIC purely on the basis of the
bloke who trains it in a juvenile event.

A race with a lot of unknowns but I
can’t let EXCELLENT DREAM go around without some of mine on.

Selections:

EXCELLENT DREAM

MIA DOLCE

SPECIAL CHOICE

EXCELESTIAL

Betting Strategy:

$40 wins EXCELLENT DREAM

 

Race 2- Suited

They will fly here with ICE MAKER
holding the rail from the inside draw but won’t get any peace in front with
SHAPITA, MY LADY FAIR and ASCOT GOLD engaged.

I think the tempo sets the race up
perfectly for METRO BOY who maps to sit just behind the speed. I tipped him
with a low degree of confidence first up off the back of a nice trial and while
he was about as popular as Sun Yang in the market he looked the winner before
getting done in the shadows. The horse has previously shown a hot speed is no
issue and he has a clear ratings edge on this field.

Also happy to have something small on
APOLLO. He hasn’t had much luck this whole preparation and was a good run last
start when having to go back from a wide draw despite jumping well. He worked
home nicely on that occasion and can settle closer from a better alley.

ICE MAKER won impressively last start
after doing the ‘pestering’ but still finding plenty late while MY LADY FAIR
has to be respected with Pike going on.

METRO BOY ticks all the boxes in this
event. I was hoping for more than the opening quote of $2.7 so fingers crossed
we get better on the day. Also worth having a saver on APOLLO at double
figures.

Selections:

METRO BOY

APOLLO

ICE MAKER

MY LADY FAIR

Betting Strategy:

$60 wins METRO BOY and $10 wins APOLLO

 

Race 5- Buttering Up

In the preview a fortnight ago I definitely
didn’t reserve judgement when discussing the chances of FREE TRADE. I didn’t
just tip him, but absolutely declared him- best bet of the month sort of talk.
The market agreed with me ($3.2-$2)and after being rated to perfection in front
by Kyra Yuill the excitement levels started to rise with a furlong to go. I
still find it difficult to think about the end of that race without the eyes
starting to well up so I’ll leave it at that.

While the confidence is not on the
same level as last start I still think FREE TRADE can make amends here. Chris
Parnham hops back on and with a couple of noted leaders engaged he may look to
take a sit. The blinkers go on and if he can get one off the fence early then
he looks hard to beat.

However there could be a bit of Deja Vu
about this race with the clear second pick being Pike in the cerise and white silks
aboard FESTIVAL MISS. She raced flat second up but if she emulates her first up
run then the figures are there to push the favourite and she maps to get every
conceivable.

SPIRIT AND FIRE over raced badly last
week and with Lee Newman engaged you’d imagine he won’t take any prisoners in
his quest to find the top, if he gets across then he can be in front for a long
way. FAIRTRUSIVE trialled nicely and should get a gun run from the favourable
draw.

Parnham will need to be on his A game
to find a spot from the sticky barrier but if he do es then I think FREE TRADE can get one back on the cerise and white.

Selections:

FREE TRADE

FESTIVAL MISS

SPIRIT AND FIRE

FAIRTRUSIVE

Betting Strategy:

$60 wins FREE TRADE

 

Race 7- A Different Horse

A really tough race where a couple of
the more fancied runners have had their chances cruelled by wide draws. There
is not a lot of speed engaged and for that reason I’m going to side with the
potential leader at big odds.

FAIR SONARI has been beaten a long way
both starts this prep but is a totally different horse when rolling to the top.
He is ready to peak third up and if Witten and lead and control then he can
record a figure to pinch a race like this at big odds.

SKINNEN TINS is in good form and maps
to land leaders back, she should get every chance from there. FRED DAG is
probably the best horse in the race but will need luck from the carpark while
RESISTANCE found itself in more trouble than William Cabantog and David Van lersel
last week and can improve with Chris Parnham jumping on.

FAIR SONARI is upwards of $20 at the
time of writing but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see bigger on the day. Happy
to have a speculative investment at those odds, you can throw out your ticket
if she doesn’t sit in the first couple.

Selections:

FAIR SONARI

SKINNEN TINS

FRED DAG

RESISTANCE

Betting Strategy:

$10 wins and $20 places FAIR SONARI

 

Race 8- Save the Best ‘Till Last

Hopefully we don’t have to blast out
in the get out stakes. But if that’s the case then I think we can go home with
a winner.

The early career of THE FUGAZI promised
the world but delivered an atlas (probably a bit harsh but you can see where I
am coming from) so I was intrigued to see how the 3YO went first up without a
trial. After being momentarily held up as they straightened he showed a superb
turn of foot when the gap appeared and really savaged the line, drawing away
from the talented Heavenly Affair. It looks as though the Gangemi camp have got
on top of whatever issues this galloper previously had and I’m expecting him to
get a similar run and remain undefeated this prep.

A very even bunch outside the top
selection and luck will play a big part. AMELIE ARGOT was brave last start
after doing it tough, she draws much more favourably here and can hit back.
DISTANT TRILOGY is in super form, he can sit midfield and hit the line hard
again while ZEPHYR QUEEN makes her own luck on speed and will keep boxing on.

Pretty keen on THE FUGAZI, if Shooter
gets the split on straightening then look for him to finish powerfully. There
is plenty of $3.5 available at the time of writing, which I think well end up
being good shopping by the time they are in the gates.

Selections:

THE FUGAZI

AMELIE ARGOT

DISTANT TRILOGY

ZEPHYR QUEEN

Betting Strategy:

$80 wins THE FUGAZI

 

+1 -1

Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

Comments

  • TheDivaTheDiva    13,246 posts
    Terry's (much more highly paid) preview here.... 

    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

  • TheDivaTheDiva    13,246 posts
    Interesting both have tipped the same roughie in r7...
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    Let's see who I can put the KOD on tomorrow, ie. Kiss Of Death.

    Will stick to the theme of roughies - gets back but seen that Fairview finish off strongly a few times and like the astute trainer.

    Then those buggers and usual suspects in the distance race - will go the out of form top weight At The Ready and the one at the bottom thrown out by @Jell last week at a big price when running third - Royal Strata.

    Two crafty trainers there in Adam Durrant & Justin Warwick.
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