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Preview with Daniel Cripps

West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    3,054 posts

For those asking where the preview was last week, it was meant to kick off in parallel with the new tipping comp. Unfortunately Tabtouch are still ironing out a few IT issues so they have also put the previews on the hold. Not sure what the hold-up fixing it is, maybe all of their resources are going into making sure they don’t take any bets on Saturday’s early markets. Anyway in the meantime the PTT guys have given me the green light to post a shortened preview or “best bets” until the tipping comp gets up and running.

It looks a decent betting card on Saturday. The rail going back to the true position should ensure a track with little bias unlike the one we saw on Wednesday which the magpies during nesting season enjoyed.

 

Race 1- Trains like Tarzan plays like ..?

A juvenile event with a number of first starters, not the criteria that normally interests me but I just can’t get the trial of EXCELLENT DREAM out of my head. He sat in the box seat that day and when the gap opened up he went through stylishly under minimal riding. It is worth noting the talented Amarillo Rose struggled to match motors with him and he ran similar time to multiple Listed race winner Rebel King.

MIA DOLCE has been up since the war but has race experience on her side and maps to land in front, from there she is the one they will all need to run down. SPECIAL CHOICE trialled like a nice horse and while she will go around a Pike/Peters price that duo is very hard to beat, she should get all the favours from the low draw. One at odds who could surprise is EXCELESTIAL who made good ground on debut and maps to settle a lot closer while I’d be silly not to mention BOOMTASTIC purely on the basis of the bloke who trains it in a juvenile event.

A race with a lot of unknowns but I can’t let EXCELLENT DREAM go around without some of mine on.

Selections:

EXCELLENT DREAM

MIA DOLCE

SPECIAL CHOICE

EXCELESTIAL

Betting Strategy:

$40 wins EXCELLENT DREAM

 

Race 2- Suited

They will fly here with ICE MAKER holding the rail from the inside draw but won’t get any peace in front with SHAPITA, MY LADY FAIR and ASCOT GOLD engaged.

I think the tempo sets the race up perfectly for METRO BOY who maps to sit just behind the speed. I tipped him with a low degree of confidence first up off the back of a nice trial and while he was about as popular as Sun Yang in the market he looked the winner before getting done in the shadows. The horse has previously shown a hot speed is no issue and he has a clear ratings edge on this field.

Also happy to have something small on APOLLO. He hasn’t had much luck this whole preparation and was a good run last start when having to go back from a wide draw despite jumping well. He worked home nicely on that occasion and can settle closer from a better alley.

ICE MAKER won impressively last start after doing the ‘pestering’ but still finding plenty late while MY LADY FAIR has to be respected with Pike going on.

METRO BOY ticks all the boxes in this event. I was hoping for more than the opening quote of $2.7 so fingers crossed we get better on the day. Also worth having a saver on APOLLO at double figures.

Selections:

METRO BOY

APOLLO

ICE MAKER

MY LADY FAIR

Betting Strategy:

$60 wins METRO BOY and $10 wins APOLLO

 

Race 5- Buttering Up

In the preview a fortnight ago I definitely didn’t reserve judgement when discussing the chances of FREE TRADE. I didn’t just tip him, but absolutely declared him- best bet of the month sort of talk. The market agreed with me ($3.2-$2)and after being rated to perfection in front by Kyra Yuill the excitement levels started to rise with a furlong to go. I still find it difficult to think about the end of that race without the eyes starting to well up so I’ll leave it at that.

While the confidence is not on the same level as last start I still think FREE TRADE can make amends here. Chris Parnham hops back on and with a couple of noted leaders engaged he may look to take a sit. The blinkers go on and if he can get one off the fence early then he looks hard to beat.

However there could be a bit of Deja Vu about this race with the clear second pick being Pike in the cerise and white silks aboard FESTIVAL MISS. She raced flat second up but if she emulates her first up run then the figures are there to push the favourite and she maps to get every conceivable.

SPIRIT AND FIRE over raced badly last week and with Lee Newman engaged you’d imagine he won’t take any prisoners in his quest to find the top, if he gets across then he can be in front for a long way. FAIRTRUSIVE trialled nicely and should get a gun run from the favourable draw.

Parnham will need to be on his A game to find a spot from the sticky barrier but if he does then I think FREE TRADE can get one back on the cerise and white.

Selections:

FREE TRADE

FESTIVAL MISS

SPIRIT AND FIRE

FAIRTRUSIVE

Betting Strategy:

$60 wins FREE TRADE

 

Race 7- A Different Horse

A really tough race where a couple of the more fancied runners have had their chances cruelled by wide draws. There is not a lot of speed engaged and for that reason I’m going to side with the potential leader at big odds.

FAIR SONARI has been beaten a long way both starts this prep but is a totally different horse when rolling to the top. He is ready to peak third up and if Witten and lead and control then he can record a figure to pinch a race like this at big odds.

SKINNEN TINS is in good form and maps to land leaders back, she should get every chance from there. FRED DAG is probably the best horse in the race but will need luck from the carpark while RESISTANCE found itself in more trouble than William Cabantog and David Van lersel last week and can improve with Chris Parnham jumping on.

FAIR SONARI is upwards of $20 at the time of writing but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see bigger on the day. Happy to have a speculative investment at those odds, you can throw out your ticket if she doesn’t sit in the first couple.

Selections:

FAIR SONARI

SKINNEN TINS

FRED DAG

RESISTANCE

Betting Strategy:

$10 wins and $20 places FAIR SONARI

 

Race 8- Save the Best ‘Till Last

Hopefully we don’t have to blast out in the get out stakes. But if that’s the case then I think we can go home with a winner.

The early career of THE FUGAZI promised the world but delivered an atlas (probably a bit harsh but you can see where I am coming from) so I was intrigued to see how the 3YO went first up without a trial. After being momentarily held up as they straightened he showed a superb turn of foot when the gap appeared and really savaged the line, drawing away from the talented Heavenly Affair. It looks as though the Gangemi camp have got on top of whatever issues this galloper previously had and I’m expecting him to get a similar run and remain undefeated this prep.

A very even bunch outside the top selection and luck will play a big part. AMELIE ARGOT was brave last start after doing it tough, she draws much more favourably here and can hit back. DISTANT TRILOGY is in super form, he can sit midfield and hit the line hard again while ZEPHYR QUEEN makes her own luck on speed and will keep boxing on.

Pretty keen on THE FUGAZI, if Shooter gets the split on straightening then look for him to finish powerfully. There is plenty of $3.5 available at the time of writing, which I think well end up being good shopping by the time they are in the gates.

Selections:

THE FUGAZI

AMELIE ARGOT

DISTANT TRILOGY

ZEPHYR QUEEN

Betting Strategy:

$80 wins THE FUGAZI
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