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Satuday Preview with Crippa

West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts
The first metro meeting of the new season has unfortunately produced what looks to be a very quiet betting affair. Some uninspiring races mixed in with the chance of a thunderstorm, it may be a better afternoon to be a duck than a punter. I went to bed last night thinking the Aussies were on the way to being rolled for 150 odd and that I’d be going back to the well and tipping one in the last with a degree of confidence. It was beautiful awakening to the news of Sir Steven’s heroics but on the flip side seeing the price of FREE TRADE had done a Houdini. He looked a nice bet at close to $4 but the new quote of $2.30 is poison and I couldn’t back him with stolen money in a race that has plenty of depth.

The rail goes to the 2m position which should ensure an even track with all runners getting their chance dependant on the tempo. I’d imagine race 1 will be run on a soft5 but could deteriorate throughout the meeting as the rain comes. On a day I found it difficult in finding some suggested bets, there is one absolute special on the card that we can have a crack at, chips in anyone?

 

Race 5- Master vs Apprentice

Not a heap of speed in this race and for that reason I’m happy to side with the likely leader PLAY HARD. Dropped back to the mile after a decent effort in the Aquanita Stakes, on that occasion he beat all bar the in form Lordhelpmerun. He drops in grade and is well weighted after Mollie Clark’s claim who has a good relationship with the galloper. From gate 12 Mollie should be able to work across to take up the running and from there he will be pretty hard to get past.

If they are making ground then FOUR WHITE FOX looks to be the main danger. He put in a real eye catcher first up with the apprentice engaged and then it was no surprise to see him further elevate second up with Pike jumping on. He was probably a good thing beat that day after finding some traffic issues in the straight. The fact he was scratched from a winnable race last week is a slight concern but Durrant is the master of keeping them fit and providing he is ready to go then look for Pike to be settling off them and rattling home at the business end of proceedings.

BLACK SHADOW broke through for a much deserved win last start after a luckless preparation. Jason Brown might even try and hold the front from the inside marble otherwise elect to sit behind the leader, he should get every chance from either scenario while MULGA got caught deep last start and is more than capable of pinching a race like this at big odds if he produces his best.

There are a couple of queries in the race so it’s not a huge confidence play but at the current prices or better I’m happy to have a wager on PLAY HARD and to a lesser extent FOUR WHITE FOX.

Selections:

PLAY HARD

FOUR WHITE FOX

BLACK SHADOW

MULGA

Betting Strategy:

$50 wins PLAY HARD and $20 wins FOUR WHITE FOX

 

 

Race 6- All In

On a tough betting day there is an absolute stand out. They should motor here with AY TEE EMM attempting to cross the goldfields galloper WOCKNWOLL.

This sets the race up perfectly for LIPSTICK FLICKERS. She looked the winner last start in a narrow defeat finishing next to horses like Flower Of War and Essential Spice, both would be a short price favourite in a race like this. From barrier 3 the in form Brodie Kirby will have her just behind the hot speed and she looks superbly weighted in this grade after the claim.

The obvious second pick is UNI TIME. He backed up a solid trial with an encouraging first up victory, while he was suited by the track bias that day he definitely won with a bit in reserve. He is another runner who will appreciate the genuine tempo and look for him to finish hard. One that could be the knock out hope is WHY CHOOSE HER. She would have gone into a lot of black books off her last start effort where she exploded after finally finding some clear galloping room. While her starting price profile isn’t great she can run a big race at an each way quote for those looking to bet around the top two in the market. They look the three hopes, I’ll throw AY TEE EMM in for fourth as he is the likely leader and ran well on the severely inferior inside pad last start.

I can’t find a chink in armour of LIPSTICK FLICKERS. Has a clear ratings edge on this field, maps to perfection, will appreciate any sting out of the ground and is thrown in at the weight after the claim. She is currently fighting UNI TIME for favouritism with both gallopers around the $2.70 mark. I expect her to be a clear elect come tomorrow. Beg, borrow and steal.

Selections:

LIPSTICK FLICKERS

UNI TIME

WHY CHOOSE HER

AY TEE EMM

Betting Strategy:

$100 wins LIPSTICK FLICKERS

Comments

  • thefalconthefalcon    15,928 posts
    would be one of the worse programs for a very long time.
    8 mystery trifectas is the shot...betting is only for the desperate.
  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    6,999 posts
    Is there anyone not directly working in the Industry, going to the WAROA Awards night ?
  • DamienWyerDamienWyer    6,999 posts
    Race 1 tomorrow at Belmont is for Maiden Platinum 4YO +, nominated runners. If you can't win this race you should get a head start at your next start.

    What quality.

    oldhendo likes this post.

  • GilgameshGilgamesh    2,991 posts

    Race 1 tomorrow at Belmont is for Maiden Platinum 4YO +, nominated runners. If you can't win this race you should get a head start at your next start.

    What quality.


    I think there is a good one in it.
  • jumjum    2,557 posts
    Gilgamesh said:

    Race 1 tomorrow at Belmont is for Maiden Platinum 4YO +, nominated runners. If you can't win this race you should get a head start at your next start.

    What quality.


    I think there is a good one in it.
    Tinto Belle
  • GilgameshGilgamesh    2,991 posts
    jum said:

    Gilgamesh said:

    Race 1 tomorrow at Belmont is for Maiden Platinum 4YO +, nominated runners. If you can't win this race you should get a head start at your next start.

    What quality.


    I think there is a good one in it.
    Tinto Belle



    Two then :P

    jum likes this post.

  • rooboyrooboy    1,325 posts
    thefalcon said:

    would be one of the worse programs for a very long time.
    8 mystery trifectas is the shot...betting is only for the desperate.
    Has someone stolen your Toffee's today Falc?
    You are in a right old mood today about the meeting!
    I will put my 5 leg Multi up for you tomorrow so you can have a bet!
    :D

    H-BOMBER, jum, thefalcon, oldhendo likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,284 posts
    He's an angry bird tonight :)
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,284 posts
    Is there anything to read into race 2 with Durrant scratching 3 out of his 4 runners and leaving Blackwater Bay in?

    Uttsy likes this post.

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,861 posts
    edited August 2
    Ok enough of the negativity...positive karma needed....so here's some wishful thinking...

    1. The famous colours of wily trainer Bob Turrell going around in the first race so am having something on first starter Alien From Mars.

    2. Something outlandish - a future Railway Stakes horse running tomorrow - Uni Time.

    3. Backed this horse 7 times in a row last campaign before he went for a spell and 7 times in a row was unplaced...tomorrow first up from a spell, goes over 1000 metres and can get well back in the field....he's actually going around as one of the favourite's :-O he's 8 yrs. old too, but does have Pike aboard, it's crazy but am going to front up to him again - Profit Street.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,861 posts
    4. An improver this one with mercurial Mitch Pateman back aboard - will go on a 3 x 7 basis - Pyms Royale.
  • jumjum    2,557 posts

    I'm gonna say what everyone's thinking. And its a bit of a whinge for something we all get for free.

    But why is the heading called "Saturday Preview" and we only get Crippa's thoughts on two races. I understand he might not be keen on anything else over the meeting. But we do like reading other peoples thoughts on how races are run and giving us punters a differing view. Just put No Bet in Betting Strategy.

    I did enjoy putting on the previous tipsters 4 selections in for the Quaddies for something to listen too when playing golf.

    Uttsy likes this post.

  • TheDivaTheDiva    11,616 posts
    He hasn’t officially started yet

    jum likes this post.

  • jumjum    2,557 posts
    :-bd
  • udontknowudontknow    448 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    Is there anything to read into race 2 with Durrant scratching 3 out of his 4 runners and leaving Blackwater Bay in?




    X_X

    Just close ur eyes and pretend this race doesn't exist
  • jumjum    2,557 posts
    edited August 3
    H-BOMBER said:

    Is there anything to read into race 2 with Durrant scratching 3 out of his 4 runners and leaving Blackwater Bay in?

    Staaden to look like the Great Heist from the Durrant stable here in this race  
    :-j
  • UttsyUttsy    39 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    Is there anything to read into race 2 with Durrant scratching 3 out of his 4 runners and leaving Blackwater Bay in?

    Don’t forget the J Miller horse as well :)

    H-BOMBER, thefalcon likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,284 posts
    I'm going to back Pearl Trade today, today is the day.

    Also a little each way on Grey Enigma in the same race. Might have just got the confidence after the Kal win

    Saracino backed overnight, was keen at the 9.50 now 5.00

    Good punting
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,284 posts
    jum said:

    H-BOMBER said:

    Is there anything to read into race 2 with Durrant scratching 3 out of his 4 runners and leaving Blackwater Bay in?

    Staaden to look like the Great Heist from the Durrant stable here in this race  
    :-j



    That's Funny Az @jum :D

    jum likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,284 posts
    Has Essential Spice lost a leg or something? Must be the Pike effect like the last race
  • rooboyrooboy    1,325 posts
    rooboy said:

    thefalcon said:

    would be one of the worse programs for a very long time.
    8 mystery trifectas is the shot...betting is only for the desperate.
    Has someone stolen your Toffee's today Falc?
    You are in a right old mood today about the meeting!
    I will put my 5 leg Multi up for you tomorrow so you can have a bet!
    :D


    Ok Falc!Just for you and me...dont tell anyone else!
    Rc4-Dealing PLC
    Rc5-Four White Fox PLC
    Rc6-Tycoon Mikado PLC
    Rc7-Misty Lad PLC
    Rc9-Multiverse PLC
    54/1
    :-$
  • GaryHGaryH    1,005 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    Has Essential Spice lost a leg or something? Must be the Pike effect like the last race

    They didn't miss it with the 5 points, plus now up against the older horses.  I'm not confident to bet either unless it drifts a little bit more......   Will win for sure now!   :-&
  • TheDivaTheDiva    11,616 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    Has Essential Spice lost a leg or something? Must be the Pike effect like the last race





    Awkward barrier main issue
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,284 posts
    ;)) $-)
  • GaryHGaryH    1,005 posts
    GaryH said:

    H-BOMBER said:

    Has Essential Spice lost a leg or something? Must be the Pike effect like the last race

    They didn't miss it with the 5 points, plus now up against the older horses.  I'm not confident to bet either unless it drifts a little bit more......   Will win for sure now!   :-&
    Hmmmmmmm  Cert after the fact.  The fact being Pike missed the start, then spent the rest of it looking at backsides.  In saying that, was a very good finish..
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,861 posts
    edited August 3
    Make no mistake - this guy is open class in the making - Uni Time will graduate to the top!
    Perfect ride by the hoop too.

    Couldn't quite work out the fuss about Broome ? Wasn't it on Sky2 ? It's difficult enough to call one race at a time.
  • TheSwooperTheSwooper    1,516 posts
    Just back from having a hit and should have stayed out.

    Defiantly given no chance. Can't be bothered going back and checking but don't think Friar's Gift has ever wanted to lead before,certainly not at that speed.

    Uni Time was impressive.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    8,861 posts
    Profit Street similar to last campaign - gets run off his feet, and when being let down to chime in - finds little. Not every day can back a horse at 5/1 that should be 25/1! Gosh he's been average.
  • TheSwooperTheSwooper    1,516 posts
    Almost the get out stakes. Pity Chix got in a bumping dual.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,284 posts
    Bang Taxagano :)

    Got a good slice of the quarter thanks to Terry as well

    Life is good
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