Belmont Preview 10th AugustWest Australian Racing

PerthTurfTalk

The best bet was a tough watch last week, $2.70 into odds on only to miss the kick and it was race over when Uni Time settled in front of her. Anyway I think this week looks a more exciting betting card so hopefully we can find a couple. With no rain on the horizon I’m expecting we will be racing on a Soft5 and once again I can’t find a reason to think the track won’t pay evenly with all runners getting their chance dependant on tempo.

Race 4- Goldfields Gold

They should go pretty hard here in the 1000m dash with BOS TAURUS trying to cross MURRAY THE BULLDOG while a couple will try and find the breeze from sticky gates.

Looks a really even race and I’m going to put some value on top by way of the ex-Goldfields galloper BOS TAURUS. He lead and copped a heap of pressure last start and while he was able to shake them off and kick clear early in the straight the pressure proved a bit too much over the final furlong but he still returned a strong figure in that race. Dropping back to the 1000m suits and if Mollie Clark can lead and get a mid-race breather then he is the one they will need to run down.

I tipped METRO BOY last start and was in the queue with a furlong to go as he looked to be absolutely travelling however when Noske asked for an effort he gave about as much as the Poms in the 4th innings. Despite that and the fact he maps awkwardly for Kate Witten he has superior ratings to his rivals and must be respected. FATHER KNICK was huge first up and then has had minimal luck in his last two, back to the 1000m and Kirby on both suit while SHINJU looks just about ready to break through in WA.

BOS TAURUS is currently $21, whether he can win the race I’m not too sure but there is $4.8 available for the place and if he leads and kicks I think he’s a great chance of not getting passed by three horses in the run to the line. Anything over $4 will do me.

Selections:

BOS TAURUS

METRO BOY

FATHER KNICK

SHINJU

Betting Strategy:

$60 places BOS TAURUS ($4+)

 

Race 7- Map Moral

This mile event has a distinct lack of speed of speed outside ABDICATOR and for that reason I think this galloper will be extremely hard to beat. When it comes to front running jockeys Chloe Azzopardi is up there with the best in WA and she will get an absolute picnic out in front to dictate this race. Was a huge effort first up when breezing outside a really strong tempo affair despite it only being a field of five. Second up over the mile is a slight query but the stable are known for doing things a bit differently and getting results, I’ve got faith that they will have him fit enough for this.

The other value in the race is JERAFT. I made a note to follow this horse after his improved second up run but then last start I don’t think he appreciated working to race in the lead. From the inside marble S Parnham can sit on the leaders back and will get clear galloping room when Abdicator gives a big kick in the straight. MYCROFT ran a cracker first up and despite C Parnham jumping off he can elevate further second up while the consistent TOUCH OF SILVER was very good last start after having to make a sustained run and can make his presence felt after getting a nice trip in transit from the favourable draw.

Pretty keen on ABDICATOR here at anything around $4. Both his ratings and speed map are big ticks. Chloe please go straight to the front and do what you do best, thanks in advance. Happy to have something on JERAFT at close to $20 who also should get a great run and has personal best figures to win this race.

Selections:

ABDICATOR

JERAFT

MYCROFT

TOUCH OF SILVER

Betting Strategy:

$70 wins ABDICATOR and $10 wins JERAFT

 

Race 8- Repeat Dosage

They should really roll along in this event with no less than six runners who prefer to lead or at least race right on speed engaged.

I Tipped THE FUGAZI a couple of weeks ago as the best of the day and despite there being a couple of scratchings that crippled the odds he really made a mess of a reasonable field after getting the run of the race. He returned a career best rating on that occasion and the way he hit the line suggested the mile will be no concern. While not drawn as favourably as the first two runs this campaign they will string out with all the speed engaged and if Shooter can settle in a position forward of midfield one off the fence then it should be game over.

SNOWCHINO looks to be the clear second elect. She was dominant last start after working across from a wide draw to lead and in doing so returned a personal best figure. She might not be able to lead this event however so I do have a query over whether she can reproduce that figure if taking a sit.

I think the rest of the field are making up the numbers quite frankly. REVEILLE put in a real eye catcher first up but will probably do similar with the way he races while MAKE MINE CHAMPERS won last start after making good ground on a track that suited leaders and will get a nice run with C Parnham hopping on.

It looks a two horse race but in saying that I’m definitely in the corner of THE FUGAZI. He is currently $2.25 which looks short enough with the small query of needing a good steer from a slightly awkward gate but pretty keen to have another go at this up and comer if we can get $2.5+ late in proceedings.

Selections:

THE FUGAZI

SNOWCHINO

REVEILLE

MAKE MINE CHAMPERS

Betting Strategy:

$80 wins THE FUGAZI ($2.5+)

Durtle

Managed to snare a $100 profit last Saturday to start 2019/2020 with a bang.

This Saturday will be loading up $100 across the meeting.

1/6 Amillionite $5
2/1 I'm pretty $5
3/2 Amarillo Rose $5
4/5 Metro Boy $10
5/7 Turbo Power $10
6/5 Mr Alby $5
7/3 Abdicator $30
8/5 Snowchino $10
9/7 False statement $20

Ridersonthestorm33

Just the two races for moi - am keen on race 5 - a three pronged attack - should all be in the $5 and $6+ vicinity - aim to get around $2 on one of the three winning - Little Fish - Spillinova - Fairview and will take them in tote running doubles.

One place bet in race 7 - he gets along way back, but can rattle home home, #13. No Say In It.

Good luck everybody, looks a tough but ok meeting.

Ridersonthestorm33

Well done Peter Knuckey - timed that run to perfection.

hash

Wouldn’t say he timed it to perfection more so he was in the right part of the track and was on a horse that’s racing pattern today suited the ridiculous track bias

Ridersonthestorm33

Funny old track and bias today that's for sure. The opening fave in the last Distant Trilogy was a drifter and from barrier one was never likely.

paraletic

Dont talk about track bias people get upset

Ridersonthestorm33

Hahaha.

Overall track bias can be summed up in two ways...

Losing day on punt - fair dinkum shocking track bias, fast lane down the outside it's a joke. I'm never betting at that place again. Sack the curator.

Winning day on punt - look I think that track played quite well, the winners came from various positions in the run, probably just a lack of pace in running, or if you just adjusted your betting you should've won.

Ridersonthestorm33

The only time was livid with a race course was when Prince Of Penzance won the Melbourne Cup - even Diplomat Express could've won that Cup with the way Flemington was on both the Saturday and Tuesday.

Losing punter track bias in play there haha.