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Belmont Preview 24th August

West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts

Going to keep this short and sweet. Time isn’t on my side as I just spent the night watching one of the worst live sporting spectacles imaginable, that being the fourth string USA team toying with the Boomers. Ah well at least I can now say I’ve seen Mason Plumlee play.

Bit of rain around but clearing by Saturday, we should be racing on a Soft5. Rail at 10m, I’ve assumed the track will be playing fairly but the inside has been a bit dicey the last couple of Saturdays so it might pay to watch the first couple closely.

 

Race 5- On My Own

From speaking to my racing buddies and reading a couple of other previews it seems as though the whole of WA is on SHINJU. I have got a different read on the race.

Hard not to be impressed with LITTLE FISH last start. He was first up without a trial and after finding the breeze copped a tonne of pressure from Spirit And Fire who ended up leading while working three deep. Once he shook the on speed horses he rolled back to the fence which was the worst going that day and looked gone with 100m to go but dug deep to get the choccies and return a personal best figure. He should derive plenty of benefit from that hit out, gets in with the same weight after the claim, undefeated second up and is drawn to lob straight into the one by one.

WANNA BE GOOD was also impressive last start when resuming. Got back on a leader biased track at Northam but rattled home to just miss over 1000m which is well short of his pet distance. The step up to the 1200m and Pike going on both suit, watch for him late. No doubt SHINJU has undeniable claims, he really attacked the line last start which suggests he is ready for the 1200m and again is drawn to get the right run. Hard to beat but I’m just not convinced he is value at $2.50. TRAKIATO for fourth who didn’t have much luck last time in.

Going to stick to my guns here and have a go at LITTLE FISH, I think $4 is a good price but it seems SHINJU will be the popular elect so we might see better on the day. WANNA BE GOOD worth a saver.

Selections:

LITTLE FISH

WANNA BE GOOD

SHINJU

TRAKIATO

Betting Strategy:

$50 wins LITTLE FISH and $20 wins WANNA BE GOOD

 

Race 8- Flip Of The Coin

The two up and comers in this event look to have this race at their mercy. That being FREE TRADE vs SNOWCHINO and there is not much between them.

FREE TRADE was ridden with a sit last start and it worked a treat. Great ride by Parnham who kept picking off the runs when they appeared and he burst to the front smartly. What I really liked about the effort was he looked like he might get done on the line with 50m to go but once he saw Neurological he found another gear and kicked clear late. From barrier 5 he should get a lovely run just off a solid tempo and stepping up to the mile off a seven day back up looks ideal. Hard to beat if he isn’t ready for the paddock.

SNOWCHINO is absolutely humming. I was on The Fugazi last start and when he got her back the confidence levels where high but in the end he was no match. She ticks a lot of boxes here- light weight, low draw and she is just as effective if leading or taking a sit. This is her biggest test so far but she will rise to the occasion.

TAXANGO is another horse that is flying. He hasn’t been within cooee of the running rail all preparation but from gate 10 he probably tramps deep again while MIRACLE MAN didn’t have much luck behind Free Trade last start and maps to land on the favourite’s back. ABDICATOR can also improve after racing on the quicksand last start.

Think one of the top two picks win. Gun to head I’d have SNOWCHINO as the slightly better chance but she is $3 compared to FREE TRADE at $4.8 so I think he represents better value. For that reason I’ll lean that way for a result.

Selections:

FREE TRADE

SNOWCHINO

TAXAGANO

MIRACLE MAN

Betting Strategy:

$50 wins FREE TRADE and $25 wins SNOWCHINO

 

Race 9- Chloe In The Last

We’ve just seen Chloe Azzopardi take out the final event at Pinjarra and I think she can do the same at Belmont, albeit at a shorter quote.

I made a note to keep an eye on BOLD SUCCESS two runs ago when he got softened up in front and then had the tendency to pull. I may not have needed to as Blind Freddie couldn’t have missed his last run, got caught in the cheap seats in a hot tempo affair and has somehow kept kicking to run a drum. Seriously huge run and while the starting price profile isn’t strong it can be somewhat put down to racing against horses like Snowchino and The Fugazi who took up a large percentage of the market. Doesn’t have to run against anything of that calibre here and from gate 3 he should get the run of the race behind another hot tempo.

Very even when trying to pick the minor numbers here. BEAUCOUNT was also a big run in the same race and again will go forward and make his own luck while fellow on pacers BLACKWOOD RIVER and MISTY LAD warrant consideration.

Tough race to finish the day but I can’t dismiss BOLD SUCCESS’ last run and I won’t let him go around without some of mine. Tabtouch went up $13, I’m not sure we will see that again however it might pay to shop late. Pike doesn’t have a ride in the last so it’s over to you Chloe.

Selections:

BOLD SUCCESS

BEAUCOUNT

BLACKWOOD RIVER

MISTY LAD

Betting Strategy:

$30 wins BOLD SUCCESS and $10 wins BEAUCOUNT
+1 -1

Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

Comments

  • UttsyUttsy    46 posts
    Should this be changed from the PTT Preview to PTT Dutch Betting haha
  • hashhash    6,401 posts
    You’ve never backed more than one horse in a race to make a profit? No ones holding a gun to your head to have a bet in every race

    Thewogboys likes this post.

  • UttsyUttsy    46 posts
    Haha yeah of course I have, I’d say most people have.
    But it’s by no means a staple.
    Thought it was a preview for the metro races, like most others out there I like to read others opinions of races and their selections. It’s always good to hear different perspectives to see if you might pick up on something different.
    Even more so as it’s been ridiculously tough going over the last period, not a great deal has made sense, so the more opinions the better.
    Point being, preview some races, try and provide some insight, think outside the box (which TL was super at btw) do something different.
    Dutching a few faves is pretty boring and likely to be unsuccessful over a long period of time.

  • thefalconthefalcon    15,974 posts
    i'd hold his bet on snowchino...not keen on free trade either.
    I really like touch of silver in this...toss around dd and missile launch ad a few ruffies and bingo you cop the q/tet...
    @-)

    hash likes this post.

  • RodentRodent    4,944 posts
    The market would have to be very accurate for there to be only 1 betting opportunity in a race. I often back several runners in a race. Especially when there's a shortie I give little hope to. There are over galore in that scenario. 
     

    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

  • TheDivaTheDiva    11,672 posts
    I’d say betting around Shinju is a ballsy move today =D>

    jum likes this post.

  • jumjum    2,591 posts

    I'm with Uttsy a bit here. Come on Crippa, put your balls on the line. Do enjoy your insight/summary on the races though.

    I don't mind a few and really good odds today

    Abdicator $13 & $3.60.  Way better than its last run

    Paddys Shadow $6 & $2.40

    Fairtrusive $5

    And Shinju just wins :D

    Uttsy, oldhendo likes this post.

  • UttsyUttsy    46 posts
    I’m liking a few at odds today as well
    Playing Marika
    Ay Tee Em
    Express Flirt
    Miracle Man

    Also saw R5 exactly like Crippa and originally had WBG on top but ended up siding with LF, thought conditions could end up suiting the on pacers, as long as we don’t see another random shit rail day.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,361 posts
    My roughie today is Harry Thomas. Like Noske back on top.

    My best is Amarillo Rose

    Plays the Game took my eye for the wrong reasons, how's is it $18????

    jum, Rodent likes this post.

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    9,022 posts
    edited August 24
    What a beauty the eighth race is - with depth! Horses like Touch Of Silver and Double Digit already hitting the 20/1 line, Miracle Man around 16/1, the two faves - very consistent.

    Throw in Taxagano and one that's forgotten again and goes under the radar - No Say In It. Could still miss the winner in that lot.

    It's a retro great Belmont Park race! 1650 metres, 13 starters, quality and open, good to see.

    jum, thefalcon, Uttsy likes this post.

  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    9,022 posts
    edited August 24
    It's a good meeting especially late in the day, final race heaps of chances too. Also a future Group One Railway Stakes runner goes around earlier - Uni Time. He'd wanna be winning today!
    No excuses - it's win or bust.

    Some horses that think have potential, can capture the immagination and finish up following them through their career - Uni Time is one, even if doesn't hit the heights will continue to follow him, as long as doesn't break the bank too often!
  • JellJell    971 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    My roughie today is Harry Thomas. Like Noske back on top.

    My best is Amarillo Rose

    Plays the Game took my eye for the wrong reasons, how's is it $18????

    Blinkers First Time, opened 101. Somebody is keen on improvement @-)

    Two each way bets for me today on a 1u/2u basis.

    R4 - Guns Of Navarone
    I really liked his trial. Down in grade from last prep and mapped to get a lovely run. Hopefully Brad Parnham can snag his first winner back from injury.

    R8 - Missile Launch
    A much improved run like a few others have mentioned on here, he showed a glimpse of his old form. I've got him mapped to land one out, one back and could be fit and ready to win fourth run in his prep.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    9,022 posts
    edited August 24
    With the talk of Dutch betting tactics - very tempting to take the two faves on, Free Trade and Snowchino and back
    1. Touch Of Silver 2. Taxagano 3. Missile Launch 4. Miracle Man 5. No Say In It...phew anymore, that's enough, and that's leaving Abdicator, Battle Torque, Double Digit plus the two faves out!

    Think it's a race where it's either back Free Tade and Snowchino - or take both on - am leaning to the later. Always reticent to leave Ash Maley trained runners out too - Double Digit.
  • thefalconthefalcon    15,974 posts
    ^^^ hey riders, i'll have u up on palagarism!!!  >:P  see my post above... :D

    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

  • udontknowudontknow    456 posts
    edited August 24
    Well the first was won at odds. It can easily continue with muzza the bulldog in the next. Orachino way overs at 71 and could suprise in the 3rd

    Its a rough day
  • paraleticparaletic    3,201 posts
    Looks like inside is quicksand again.
  • jumjum    2,591 posts
    edited August 24

    **** I have a fair whack coming up on Shinju in 4 different multis X_X

    With possibly another 2 if Romancer gets up in Melbourne

  • paraleticparaletic    3,201 posts
    paraletic said:

    Looks like inside is quicksand again.


    maybe not
  • jumjum    2,591 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    .

    My best is Amarillo Rose




    ^:)^ <:-P

    Nice price H

    H-BOMBER, hash likes this post.

  • RodentRodent    4,944 posts
    jum said:

    **** I have a fair whack coming up on Shinju in 4 different multis X_X

    With possibly another 2 if Romancer gets up in Melbourne

    Nervous?

    jum likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    7,361 posts
    jum said:

    H-BOMBER said:

    .

    My best is Amarillo Rose




    ^:)^ <:-P

    Nice price H




    $8 this AM :)
  • jumjum    2,591 posts
    Rodent said:

    jum said:

    **** I have a fair whack coming up on Shinju in 4 different multis X_X

    With possibly another 2 if Romancer gets up in Melbourne

    Nervous?

    [-O<
  • JellJell    971 posts
    Plays The Game into 9.5 :-O
  • jumjum    2,591 posts
    jum said:

    **** I have a fair whack coming up on Shinju in 4 different multis X_X

    With possibly another 2 if Romancer gets up in Melbourne


    b-( b-( :-&
  • JellJell    971 posts
    jum said:

    jum said:

    **** I have a fair whack coming up on Shinju in 4 different multis X_X

    With possibly another 2 if Romancer gets up in Melbourne


    b-( b-( :-&


    It's the unwritten law of multis, Jum.

    Never mention them until they've won, otherwise the punting God's will punish you! [-X
  • thefalconthefalcon    15,974 posts
    you know my idea of multis.....its well documented….a one way street to the poor house... L-) 
    nothing wrong with a double....but any more and its kamikaze..
  • thefalconthefalcon    15,974 posts
    go silver!! $-)

    jum, Ridersonthestorm33, hash likes this post.

  • TheSwooperTheSwooper    1,520 posts
    Well done Fal. A good win. Barrier 3 and 3 wide. Not having much luck Bold Success.
  • sonnysonny    616 posts
    Falc, You should get the gig for the Turf talk ...Well Done. Hope the the beers are flowing...

    Whispers dislikes this post.

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