In this Discussion
- bigorangecat August 2019
- H-BOMBER August 2019
- hash August 2019
- Jell August 2019
- jum August 2019
- paraletic August 2019
- Ridersonthestorm33 August 2019
- Rodent August 2019
- sonny August 2019
- TheDiva August 2019
- thefalcon August 2019
- TheSwooper August 2019
- udontknow August 2019
- Uttsy August 2019
Belmont Preview 24th August
West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalk
3,054 posts
Going to keep this short and sweet. Time isn’t on my side as I just spent the night watching one of the worst live sporting spectacles imaginable, that being the fourth string USA team toying with the Boomers. Ah well at least I can now say I’ve seen Mason Plumlee play.
Bit of rain around but clearing by Saturday, we should be racing on a Soft5. Rail at 10m, I’ve assumed the track will be playing fairly but the inside has been a bit dicey the last couple of Saturdays so it might pay to watch the first couple closely.
Race 5- On My Own
From speaking to my racing buddies and reading a couple of other previews it seems as though the whole of WA is on SHINJU. I have got a different read on the race.
Hard not to be impressed with LITTLE FISH last start. He was first up without a trial and after finding the breeze copped a tonne of pressure from Spirit And Fire who ended up leading while working three deep. Once he shook the on speed horses he rolled back to the fence which was the worst going that day and looked gone with 100m to go but dug deep to get the choccies and return a personal best figure. He should derive plenty of benefit from that hit out, gets in with the same weight after the claim, undefeated second up and is drawn to lob straight into the one by one.
WANNA BE GOOD was also impressive last start when resuming. Got back on a leader biased track at Northam but rattled home to just miss over 1000m which is well short of his pet distance. The step up to the 1200m and Pike going on both suit, watch for him late. No doubt SHINJU has undeniable claims, he really attacked the line last start which suggests he is ready for the 1200m and again is drawn to get the right run. Hard to beat but I’m just not convinced he is value at $2.50. TRAKIATO for fourth who didn’t have much luck last time in.
Going to stick to my guns here and have a go at LITTLE FISH, I think $4 is a good price but it seems SHINJU will be the popular elect so we might see better on the day. WANNA BE GOOD worth a saver.
Selections:
LITTLE FISH
WANNA BE GOOD
SHINJU
TRAKIATO
Betting Strategy:
$50 wins LITTLE FISH and $20 wins WANNA BE GOOD
Race 8- Flip Of The Coin
The two up and comers in this event look to have this race at their mercy. That being FREE TRADE vs SNOWCHINO and there is not much between them.
FREE TRADE was ridden with a sit last start and it worked a treat. Great ride by Parnham who kept picking off the runs when they appeared and he burst to the front smartly. What I really liked about the effort was he looked like he might get done on the line with 50m to go but once he saw Neurological he found another gear and kicked clear late. From barrier 5 he should get a lovely run just off a solid tempo and stepping up to the mile off a seven day back up looks ideal. Hard to beat if he isn’t ready for the paddock.
SNOWCHINO is absolutely humming. I was on The Fugazi last start and when he got her back the confidence levels where high but in the end he was no match. She ticks a lot of boxes here- light weight, low draw and she is just as effective if leading or taking a sit. This is her biggest test so far but she will rise to the occasion.
TAXANGO is another horse that is flying. He hasn’t been within cooee of the running rail all preparation but from gate 10 he probably tramps deep again while MIRACLE MAN didn’t have much luck behind Free Trade last start and maps to land on the favourite’s back. ABDICATOR can also improve after racing on the quicksand last start.
Think one of the top two picks win. Gun to head I’d have SNOWCHINO as the slightly better chance but she is $3 compared to FREE TRADE at $4.8 so I think he represents better value. For that reason I’ll lean that way for a result.
Selections:
FREE TRADE
SNOWCHINO
TAXAGANO
MIRACLE MAN
Betting Strategy:
$50 wins FREE TRADE and $25 wins SNOWCHINO
Race 9- Chloe In The Last
We’ve just seen Chloe Azzopardi take out the final event at Pinjarra and I think she can do the same at Belmont, albeit at a shorter quote.
I made a note to keep an eye on BOLD SUCCESS two runs ago when he got softened up in front and then had the tendency to pull. I may not have needed to as Blind Freddie couldn’t have missed his last run, got caught in the cheap seats in a hot tempo affair and has somehow kept kicking to run a drum. Seriously huge run and while the starting price profile isn’t strong it can be somewhat put down to racing against horses like Snowchino and The Fugazi who took up a large percentage of the market. Doesn’t have to run against anything of that calibre here and from gate 3 he should get the run of the race behind another hot tempo.
Very even when trying to pick the minor numbers here. BEAUCOUNT was also a big run in the same race and again will go forward and make his own luck while fellow on pacers BLACKWOOD RIVER and MISTY LAD warrant consideration.
Tough race to finish the day but I can’t dismiss BOLD SUCCESS’ last run and I won’t let him go around without some of mine. Tabtouch went up $13, I’m not sure we will see that again however it might pay to shop late. Pike doesn’t have a ride in the last so it’s over to you Chloe.
Selections:
BOLD SUCCESS
BEAUCOUNT
BLACKWOOD RIVER
MISTY LAD
Betting Strategy:
$30 wins BOLD SUCCESS and $10 wins BEAUCOUNT
+1 -1
Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.
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Thewogboys likes this post.
But it’s by no means a staple.
Thought it was a preview for the metro races, like most others out there I like to read others opinions of races and their selections. It’s always good to hear different perspectives to see if you might pick up on something different.
Even more so as it’s been ridiculously tough going over the last period, not a great deal has made sense, so the more opinions the better.
Point being, preview some races, try and provide some insight, think outside the box (which TL was super at btw) do something different.
Dutching a few faves is pretty boring and likely to be unsuccessful over a long period of time.
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https://www.betfair.com.au/hub/your-expert-w-a-racing-previews/?utm_source=sf&utm_medium=edm&utm_campaign=racing_insight&utm_term=newsletter&utm_content=wa_racing
Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.
I'm with Uttsy a bit here. Come on Crippa, put your balls on the line. Do enjoy your insight/summary on the races though.
I don't mind a few and really good odds today
Abdicator $13 & $3.60. Way better than its last run
Paddys Shadow $6 & $2.40
Fairtrusive $5
And Shinju just wins :D
Uttsy, oldhendo likes this post.
Playing Marika
Ay Tee Em
Express Flirt
Miracle Man
Also saw R5 exactly like Crippa and originally had WBG on top but ended up siding with LF, thought conditions could end up suiting the on pacers, as long as we don’t see another random shit rail day.
My best is Amarillo Rose
Plays the Game took my eye for the wrong reasons, how's is it $18????
jum, Rodent likes this post.
Throw in Taxagano and one that's forgotten again and goes under the radar - No Say In It. Could still miss the winner in that lot.
It's a retro great Belmont Park race! 1650 metres, 13 starters, quality and open, good to see.
jum, thefalcon, Uttsy likes this post.
No excuses - it's win or bust.
Some horses that think have potential, can capture the immagination and finish up following them through their career - Uni Time is one, even if doesn't hit the heights will continue to follow him, as long as doesn't break the bank too often!
1. Touch Of Silver 2. Taxagano 3. Missile Launch 4. Miracle Man 5. No Say In It...phew anymore, that's enough, and that's leaving Abdicator, Battle Torque, Double Digit plus the two faves out!
Think it's a race where it's either back Free Tade and Snowchino - or take both on - am leaning to the later. Always reticent to leave Ash Maley trained runners out too - Double Digit.
Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.
Its a rough day
**** I have a fair whack coming up on Shinju in 4 different multis X_X
With possibly another 2 if Romancer gets up in Melbourne
maybe not
^:)^ <:-P
Nice price H
H-BOMBER, hash likes this post.
jum likes this post.
$8 this AM :)
[-O<
b-( b-( :-&
It's the unwritten law of multis, Jum.
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