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Through the bottom of a glass: Ascot Preview 18/10

West Australian Racing
PerthTurfTalkPerthTurfTalk    2,951 posts
edited October 2019 West Australian Racing
 

You won't easily notice this iconic character. He’s an enigma. From the Flametree bar at the height of the Perth Cup to the rarely visited top floor of the Group 1 bar, this particular man has found a perch at every Perth Racing watering hole. It’s this evolution of vantage points that’s shaped him. You see, The Ascot Bar Fly sees things we don't see, knows things about local racing that are above most punters’ comprehension. What he hears are whispers that wouldn't ever register with a commoner. He's proof that it's a game of centimetres and now he shares his wisdom with Perth Turf Talk.

 

Race 1

Red Can Man has been simply dominant in both wins this preparation. Fresh was nothing more than track work then bumped into the so called "a-graders" was backed off the map and produced another impressive win. The Saturday morning preview show that now runs for 1.15 mins (yes that right 1.15 mins to preview 9 races, Victoria get through a Melbourne Cup preview in less than an hour with 4 or 5 guests, go figure. Some people do obviously like hearing themselves speak!) actually did produce some gold before its last win. One young chap doing the form said "You can't back this horse with Stolen Money at $4.50, OK mate it SPd $2.70)

Niccovi is a smart filly and the way the race panned out she was entitled to beat him. They smacked the rest including the very talented Some Sort. Wolfe indicated on radio they scratched him last week thinking they would save him for an easier race. He admitted it was a silly move. The way the race panned out, sit, sprint, kick home think it would have parked OSL and won. In reality the horse could be almost unbeaten. Massive debut, then two monster chop ups by Shooter. Black odds looks a terrific bet.

Maps to advantage particularly with the scratching of the speedy Ziebell. Boomtastic kicks forward but very suspect at the 1200m.

Of the others in the market.

Born To Try - not sold at all. Beat Belle Of Liberty over 1400m. It is a dead set B Grader. Yeah it won a Saturday race however it was a glorified maiden.

Kay Cee - real talent, possesses huge finish however getting right back over 1200m with bigger fish to fry. Happy to be against it.

Boomtastic - rated well at Bunbury but as mentioned above 1200m is a query, think the big chestnut owns it.

Marrochino - blowout hope.

Race 3

Match race between two smart 3yos. Leaning Massimo just based on a feeling it is a very talented and powerful type however Pretty Style will get the map advantage and has been schooled up with two very sharp 400m trials. Rest are not worth mentioning. Have these a little wider apart with Massimo around $1.70 in my market.

Race 4

The world will be on Lady Sass and pretty easy to see why. Massive talent and very stylish mare. Huge fresh win clocking big late splits then never a hope last weeks when drawing 16/16 and being snagged to the tail. Quick back up big tick, draws a marble and races against a stack of horses that are looking for the chair.... Should just be winning and looks a genuine $1.60-$1.80 pop.

Dangers - hard to label any. The default is Harry Thomas coming off a close second to the subsequent winner, Jedaffair. He's maps to lead but is simply just a nonnie. Arnie's Boy plonks handy looks a solid top 3 hope.


Race 6

Interesting race. Can see many wanting to be on Spillanova however not keen personally. Shades off huge negative and actually cannot recall a horse from this stable going any good with this type of gear change. Been on him his last two and yes has been taken on to a degree and possibly Ascot a better track for him however I'm not that forgiving like others. I'll pen him until he wins another race particularly with this gear change. Also, back of my mind is are we getting carried away with 1 win 12 months ago where he beat up a very average lot of animals, dominating from the top on a day the rail was on fire. ? Maybe I'm looking into things too deeply.

Clear class animal in this race is Platoon. Genuine stakes horse at his best. Doubt he's a real 2400m horse but you only get one crack at a Derby so you can understand why they went that way him last prep. There will be query on his first up form however happy to completely put the pen through last preparation when he resumed. 1200m Magic Millions scamper, back to last and never in it. That was off one trial. This time round 2 trials and 1400m. Playing with some fire backing a fresh horse like this but at the $6-$7 available more than happy to have a crack.

Others

Regal Counsel - you get beat in a weak race at Kalgoorlie after getting a PR then you are dead to me until further notice. Long prep as well. Big negative.

Midnight Sky - good fresh card and draws to get a suck run which it needs. Concede its a hope and back able price.

Cryptic Love - nonnie until winning a soft race at Kal, deep into prep.

Peppijack - always seems to receive plenty of love. Complete number to me. Peak performances were 15 months ago on wet tracks. Wrong set up.


Race 7

Cracker. No definitive opinion and no real betting strategy. Just wanted to say its a brilliant race. For the record I'll have something on Fabergino as its a dynamite fresh horse & a 1000m gun. No point trying to get this horse go a yard over 1000m. When you have high speed and its your advantage, I'll give you a tip - USE IT. **** scared of Flrirtini and to a lesser degree Stageman.

Rest making up the numbers.

Race 8

Man Booker out which is disappointing not that I wanted to be on it however it has effected the prices of the one I want to back.

You'll hear all and sundry go on about how The Velvet King is not suited at the weights here however not a weights man at all unless they are dropping significantly. Think he gives this a big push and elevates himself to a Group horse. This horses' asset is high speed. Loves to grind his rivals down. Last week although they looked they were motoring early the first 600m of that race was run 3.5L below benchmark speed. The fact he didn't cross to lead was because Majinika jumped like a gazelle and got their first. Different scenario tomorrow. Wrinkly engaged means it should be genuinely run. Last year Wrinkly resumed in the Asian Beau and ran 12L above BM to the 400. If he was to do something similar it could prove the perfect scenario for TVK to tag and go for home early. Love the the quick back and love his fresh run. He looked like he would be beaten over a length at the 100m but picked up again. Also very keen on the differing form lines he brings in. There was something very icky about that Birthday Stakes form. Sit and sprint races usually don't produce a plethora of winners moving forward.

$6 about a young, talented horse - it is a bet for me.

Only others I'd consider backing

Achernar Star - excels off strong speed and 1400m pet trip. Pont give this the PR.

Perfect Jewel - just because it resumes for a new stable and Durrant gets these older mares cranking. Pike a little factor as well.

All the best.
 
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