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The Other Ascot Preview by TMP (yet still again) for 30/11/19

West Australian Racing
I'm back because of ROTS and the other 2 gentleman (yes, I heard, no more stand alone abbreviations).

The hope is tomorrow for yet another successful day and I'm keen.

The races are even and very good quality.

R/1 The 2 class hoirses stand out for me, 1 and 2.
Cockney Crew was fantastic in a fast run fast time 1800m race last time; back to 1500m here and it will be so interesting what he and Majinika do.
The obvious one is Abdicator again (was very good to me last time when I had him and Wrinkly). He will have the sit and last run at him. I just think he is a bit better than the favourite. But I find it hard to split 1 and 2.

R/2 Here is one of my strange hunches.
The Maestro has 2 horses in in; but I really like Put a Spell on You. He was entitled to weaken after a wide barrier draw and racing up front; but he fought it out so so well. He will be in front of Downforce in the run and that will help (Downforce was a late bet for me last week and Steve did it so well with a top ride; surprising some but not me).

R/3 The Nicconian has always appealed to me as a true speed horse. He has a good draw here and I am on him already (yes, Steve is on him!).
I really like the Nicconi's too.

R/4 Without Reason looked real value here to me each way. He is very lightly raced and always looked like a middle distance horse. The stable is in form as is the rider (both of them never been better; there is hope for me yet!). 
The topweight was an excellent run last time of course.

R/5 They are all I believe stepping up from 1800m to 2100m here I believe.
Forceful seems very short for a horse unknwn at this dstance.
If we are looking for a stayer who can race up front and not weaken, look no further than the big fella, Missile Launch.
He will give a good sight and of course the great judgemant and strong riding of P. Carbery is a bonus.

R/6  The main chances here seem to be 1,2,3 and 8.
You cannot leave out the top one Sir Mambo; so consistant; but his barrier is a problem.
Despite his name, horse number 2 (will avoid saying it) is right in this; favourable draw and can sit, sprint and stick (seems a big lump of a thing).
The favourite has a shocker of a draw and of course Lacevinsky would appear the natural leader again.
But this is very open with also numbers 6.7.9.10 and 15 in it too!

R/7/ The toppie is carrying a lot of wight (Is Luke Fernie related to Peter?) but has W. Pike and great form.
Numbers 2.3.6 and 8 are in this too.

R/8 Here is the big sprint.
I have to stick to Flirtini. I had kittens when she reached 9.5 over here but now back to 7.5.
That central part of the track is something P Harvey can find and if Trekking is on the inside?
They have sure put a bundle on Trekkiing!

R/9 1,4,11,14 and 16 here appear to be the chances.
Some of these a very lightly raced and obviously on the way up.
.The W Pike ride was significantly checked in his maiden win and still picked up to win. The dam was very strong over a middle distance and no slouch,.
Gee Zenaze won well in his maiden; the right rider and trainer at the present. They are my top two.
But Missing Pro is also very lightly raced and anything in front is a chance!

So there are really good horses racing in WA and they can match and beat the invaders!

Good Luck to All. 
 


Comments

  • thefalconthefalcon    19,949 posts
    good summary piker...I like the one on the Winterbottom. trekking has been to a few dances, syd melb back to syd melb...might have travelled a bit too much.
  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    7,743 posts
    Appreciate your time Piker posting your selections and hope you bag some winners though not against mine  :D

    Some at odds for me....

    R3 Dam Ready
    R4 Zip A Dee Doo Dah
    R5 Prize Catch & Dark Musket
    R6 Shuwish
    R8 Endless Drama
    R9 Sirius Magic if it gets a start and Argent D'Or will run a big race



  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    edited November 2019
    Good work piker, first mistake for me, beforehand I thought the Winterbottom was next week, bloody hopeless, ok Trekking the one to beat, but way way too short for me, it is difficult to select the winner if not the fave. It's a cracker of a race, after the favourite extremely wide open.

    James Cummings other two rough ones some hope, Valour Road the longer priced one of Simon Miller, also a chance. Vital Silver very good in Melbourne, Craig Willliams here to ride Dubious, fifteen runners - great race!

    If was betting on it I'd be taking Trekking on, but very reluctantly, moreso because think too short.

    Very difficult meeting - one bet - lucky last, he's done the right thing by us a couple of times, so once again small win and hit the place on Megazone.

    Paul Harvey aboard, now remember Pontiff if he can't win, still ride him out for the drum!

    Good luck everybody, and well done Perth Racing, they've got a terrific Group One. The Winterbottom continues to find a niche in quality.

    hash likes this post.

  • jumjum    3,512 posts

    Hey Piker Great job mate. And I do read every week.

    Luke Fernie is Peter's son mate

  • UttsyUttsy    129 posts
    Heres my take on the day, pretty keen on a few. Expecting it to be hard to make up huge amounts of ground in the straight, other than those races with extreme tempo.
    R1 - Abdicator - Very keen
    R2 - Downforce
    R3 - The Nicconian 
    R4 - Son of Bacchus - Very Keen
    R5 - Forceful
    R6 - Dickoletto - Very Keen
    R7 - Mr Genoa
    R8 - Stageman - keen
  • hashhash    7,495 posts
    Agree with every single thing you said above Riders!
    re the Winterbottom, all runners you’ve mentioned plus Flirtini and the old boy Rock Magic will all be included in my novelties
  • UttsyUttsy    129 posts
    Beat the Devil scratched, now switched to Fire and Rain on an easier lead. Ultimate gear change also helped.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,235 posts
    Uttsy said:

    Beat the Devil scratched, now switched to Fire and Rain on an easier lead. Ultimate gear change also helped.




    It's one of the bets of the day along with Trekking and Forceful for mine :>

    Uttsy likes this post.

  • silkysilky    342 posts
    Levitate and Megazone for me
  • rooboyrooboy    1,421 posts
    Tomorrow I will chuck a $5 Multi on Piker for us for your 1st 6 selections in a Multi for a place!
    I went Sir Mambo in the 6th as Dick could be a problem for us with the young kid aboard!
    About 165/1.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,235 posts
    There will be 4 I'll be launching into tomorrow

    Race 2 Snippy Miss - nice trial winner which I followed in it's first prep. Should have won first up last time at a big each way price and with Pike in the saddle this time you know are expecting a good showing. Has 55kg in the SWP conditions and gets in well against a few of the main chances. Pike, Durrant, first up off trial win. $5 seems pretty good to me. Bet WIN.

    Race 3 Fire and Rain - The bet of the day in my opinion. Had it's problems and had a few surgeries to correct some issues, also has been gelded. Loved the trial off a long break. If there is any on pace bias on the first few races then load up. Its pattern is to lead and I think it will take a stack of beating if it's finds the front and gets it cheaply. Great each bet at 6.50.

    Race 5 Forceful - He is very short. Has a few things against him too. Never run past 1800. Barrier 1. Never won past 1600m. Had it world perfect last start and giant killer Taxagano, who sat wide throughout out muscled it on the line. Gets weight from that horse and has it covered. The two that can beat it are proven over a trip, Missile Launch and Friar Fox. FF drawn the river doesn't help it's chances and ML, while breaking through 2 starts back is a bit of a non winner and the kg, while helpful, isn't enough on the 2L last start. I'd be backing tote as Forceful is rock bottom, he'll need a bit to go right and a good ride, but has right jock, trainer, owner, colours etc etc and if he runs the trip he'll beat them. Probably the least confident of the 4 tips. Bet Forceful WIN tote.

    Winterbottom Trekking - keeping it simple here. He's the best horse by a mile and with the draw should get a perfect run in transit from the gun K McEvoy. The only thing I reckon can challenge it is Vital Silver. Cracking run in the Manikato and back to home ground is up to the ears here. Flirtini is good and last start was a sensational win. Will be flooding home for the Pontiff, especially off a good speed. I think Hey Doc will sit on speed and keep on keeping on. Bet - Trekking WIN. Vital silver PLACE. Exotics Trekking and Vital Silver quinellas and exactas.


    If looking for a rough chance, get it early in race 1 with Superior Smile. Just beaten first up with 57. Finds a hot race with 54 but a small field. A little each way to start the day

    Good punting

    Ridersonthestorm33, silky likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    19,949 posts
    agree with r1 SS....
    you have put a lot of thought into it, bomber. think you are off the mark with forceful....missile launch is in it up to his ears.
    trekking may have been jinxed his pic being on the front page of TABform...
    8-X
  • ChelseaChelsea    1,369 posts
    Multi for Falc
    Cockney Crew Win
    Brothers Keeper Place
    Dubious Place

    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

  • LETSDOTHISLETSDOTHIS    298 posts
    Inside word on cockney crew from Chelsea :)
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,809 posts
    Kerrin McKevoy no winner at Ascot for 7 years, but then again how many times has he been to Perth ? He won the Guineas when that horse can't recall its name, started with an A, one of the long names, but know who it beat, because was on it - an old fave - Bippo No Bungus!
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,235 posts
    Academus

    Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

  • paraleticparaletic    3,750 posts
    Cant beat him join him. Bob to win the Winterbottom and next week the KT

    thefalcon likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,235 posts
    Seems every man and his dog have found Without Reason, now into 5.50
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,235 posts
    Gee Cockney Crew in a Railway? Seems the right call was made, obviously a foot problem if he much better than that
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,235 posts
    Mildly lame in off fore.
  • TheDivaTheDiva    13,246 posts
    Was lame in both hinds just last week.

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    19,949 posts
    ^^ yes, I was surprised to see him in but not at all surprised he was beaten.
    shows the difference between a mediocre trainer and a good one..i'm sure he's be in the paddock if trained by a harro, parnham, Andrews, durrent etc.
  • detonatordetonator    4,360 posts
    Ugly ugly ugly watch Rebel Knight :-?
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,235 posts
    Cue on the rack for me. Guns of Navarone been one of mine but gee how could you have it today
  • RodentRodent    7,025 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    Cue on the rack for me. Guns of Navarone been one of mine but gee how could you have it today

    You couldn't except that it was probably just a little over the odds. Luck in running is everything. You could probably say there were 5 unlucky runners in the race who should have beaten Guns Of Navarone home!

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    19,949 posts
    bomber, told you the first 3 races were no-no's...... :-B
  • thefalconthefalcon    19,949 posts
    missile launch...could not believe the price... :-\"

    hash, Flanders likes this post.

  • TheDivaTheDiva    13,246 posts
    it was enormous, I saw $19 on betfair. 

    hash likes this post.

  • silkysilky    342 posts
    pike ^:)^
  • thefalconthefalcon    19,949 posts
    was friars fan. a bit unlucky? had it e/w..
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