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The Other Ascot Preview by TMP (yet still again) for 30/11/19
West Australian Racing
piker
404 posts
I'm back because of ROTS and the other 2 gentleman (yes, I heard, no more stand alone abbreviations).
The hope is tomorrow for yet another successful day and I'm keen.
The races are even and very good quality.
R/1 The 2 class hoirses stand out for me, 1 and 2.
Cockney Crew was fantastic in a fast run fast time 1800m race last time; back to 1500m here and it will be so interesting what he and Majinika do.
The obvious one is Abdicator again (was very good to me last time when I had him and Wrinkly). He will have the sit and last run at him. I just think he is a bit better than the favourite. But I find it hard to split 1 and 2.
R/2 Here is one of my strange hunches.
The Maestro has 2 horses in in; but I really like Put a Spell on You. He was entitled to weaken after a wide barrier draw and racing up front; but he fought it out so so well. He will be in front of Downforce in the run and that will help (Downforce was a late bet for me last week and Steve did it so well with a top ride; surprising some but not me).
R/3 The Nicconian has always appealed to me as a true speed horse. He has a good draw here and I am on him already (yes, Steve is on him!).
I really like the Nicconi's too.
R/4 Without Reason looked real value here to me each way. He is very lightly raced and always looked like a middle distance horse. The stable is in form as is the rider (both of them never been better; there is hope for me yet!).
The topweight was an excellent run last time of course.
R/5 They are all I believe stepping up from 1800m to 2100m here I believe.
Forceful seems very short for a horse unknwn at this dstance.
If we are looking for a stayer who can race up front and not weaken, look no further than the big fella, Missile Launch.
He will give a good sight and of course the great judgemant and strong riding of P. Carbery is a bonus.
R/6 The main chances here seem to be 1,2,3 and 8.
You cannot leave out the top one Sir Mambo; so consistant; but his barrier is a problem.
Despite his name, horse number 2 (will avoid saying it) is right in this; favourable draw and can sit, sprint and stick (seems a big lump of a thing).
The favourite has a shocker of a draw and of course Lacevinsky would appear the natural leader again.
But this is very open with also numbers 6.7.9.10 and 15 in it too!
R/7/ The toppie is carrying a lot of wight (Is Luke Fernie related to Peter?) but has W. Pike and great form.
Numbers 2.3.6 and 8 are in this too.
R/8 Here is the big sprint.
I have to stick to Flirtini. I had kittens when she reached 9.5 over here but now back to 7.5.
That central part of the track is something P Harvey can find and if Trekking is on the inside?
They have sure put a bundle on Trekkiing!
R/9 1,4,11,14 and 16 here appear to be the chances.
Some of these a very lightly raced and obviously on the way up.
.The W Pike ride was significantly checked in his maiden win and still picked up to win. The dam was very strong over a middle distance and no slouch,.
Gee Zenaze won well in his maiden; the right rider and trainer at the present. They are my top two.
But Missing Pro is also very lightly raced and anything in front is a chance!
So there are really good horses racing in WA and they can match and beat the invaders!
Good Luck to All.
Comments
James Cummings other two rough ones some hope, Valour Road the longer priced one of Simon Miller, also a chance. Vital Silver very good in Melbourne, Craig Willliams here to ride Dubious, fifteen runners - great race!
If was betting on it I'd be taking Trekking on, but very reluctantly, moreso because think too short.
Very difficult meeting - one bet - lucky last, he's done the right thing by us a couple of times, so once again small win and hit the place on Megazone.
Paul Harvey aboard, now remember Pontiff if he can't win, still ride him out for the drum!
Good luck everybody, and well done Perth Racing, they've got a terrific Group One. The Winterbottom continues to find a niche in quality.
hash likes this post.
Hey Piker Great job mate. And I do read every week.
Luke Fernie is Peter's son mate
re the Winterbottom, all runners you’ve mentioned plus Flirtini and the old boy Rock Magic will all be included in my novelties
It's one of the bets of the day along with Trekking and Forceful for mine :>
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Race 2 Snippy Miss - nice trial winner which I followed in it's first prep. Should have won first up last time at a big each way price and with Pike in the saddle this time you know are expecting a good showing. Has 55kg in the SWP conditions and gets in well against a few of the main chances. Pike, Durrant, first up off trial win. $5 seems pretty good to me. Bet WIN.
Race 3 Fire and Rain - The bet of the day in my opinion. Had it's problems and had a few surgeries to correct some issues, also has been gelded. Loved the trial off a long break. If there is any on pace bias on the first few races then load up. Its pattern is to lead and I think it will take a stack of beating if it's finds the front and gets it cheaply. Great each bet at 6.50.
Race 5 Forceful - He is very short. Has a few things against him too. Never run past 1800. Barrier 1. Never won past 1600m. Had it world perfect last start and giant killer Taxagano, who sat wide throughout out muscled it on the line. Gets weight from that horse and has it covered. The two that can beat it are proven over a trip, Missile Launch and Friar Fox. FF drawn the river doesn't help it's chances and ML, while breaking through 2 starts back is a bit of a non winner and the kg, while helpful, isn't enough on the 2L last start. I'd be backing tote as Forceful is rock bottom, he'll need a bit to go right and a good ride, but has right jock, trainer, owner, colours etc etc and if he runs the trip he'll beat them. Probably the least confident of the 4 tips. Bet Forceful WIN tote.
Winterbottom Trekking - keeping it simple here. He's the best horse by a mile and with the draw should get a perfect run in transit from the gun K McEvoy. The only thing I reckon can challenge it is Vital Silver. Cracking run in the Manikato and back to home ground is up to the ears here. Flirtini is good and last start was a sensational win. Will be flooding home for the Pontiff, especially off a good speed. I think Hey Doc will sit on speed and keep on keeping on. Bet - Trekking WIN. Vital silver PLACE. Exotics Trekking and Vital Silver quinellas and exactas.
If looking for a rough chance, get it early in race 1 with Superior Smile. Just beaten first up with 57. Finds a hot race with 54 but a small field. A little each way to start the day
Good punting
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Cockney Crew Win
Brothers Keeper Place
Dubious Place
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