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Leader bias everywhere

West Australian Racing
FlandersFlanders    1,208 posts
West Australian Racing
What's the solution to all of the on-pace bias that seems to be so common of late? Ascot today has been very obvious. Pinjarra Sunday not much better as has Bunbury and Pinjarra's last few meets.
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Comments

  • razorrazor    205 posts
    back leaders and fill your pockets? not hard

    hash likes this post.

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  • razorrazor    205 posts
    pinjarra the saturday before the fence was so so off! its swings n roundabouts i rekon. no horse today lead and won that shouldnt have.....thats a true bias. 40-1 pops runnin like 4-1
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  • FlandersFlanders    1,208 posts
    razor said:

    back leaders and fill your pockets? not hard


    Very sharp.
    Other than that short-term approach my emphasis is on the greater good of the industry longer term. Punters confidence will diminish big time if this trend continues and they'll punt less, therefore the industry will suffer. Race field numbers will also diminish. What owner of a decent quality backmarker will send their horse around if they are 99% sure they can't win or even place? Just look at the outcry from Caulfield last Saturday. They'll just head north to race in Sydney.

    oldhendo, Uttsy likes this post.

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  • tonytony    2,373 posts
    As far as Ascot is concerned it is always leaderish when the easterly blows all day
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  • RodentRodent    7,040 posts
    tony said:

    As far as Ascot is concerned it is always leaderish when the easterly blows all day

    That is such a poor course design. A 1200m race has the wind up their rrrs for 800m and once you straighten up there isn't far to go.
     When the westerley is in it's just as bad as we see jockeys all pulling up in front desperate to get cover.

    oldhendo, thefalcon, Uttsy likes this post.

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  • therealkramertherealkramer    8,008 posts
    razor said:

    pinjarra the saturday before the fence was so so off! its swings n roundabouts i rekon. no horse today lead and won that shouldnt have.....thats a true bias. 40-1 pops runnin like 4-1


    Well that depends if those 40-1 pops are leaders. If there are two horses, both 2-1 one a leader, the other midfielder or worse, you can hardly say they are equal chances on a track with an on pace bias.
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  • FlandersFlanders    1,208 posts
    https://www.rsn.net.au/good-4-rule-has-created-bias-track-managers/
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  • UttsyUttsy    129 posts
    I always find this an interesting conversation.
    How would you define an on speed bias? 
    Personally to me I define it as when its impossible to make ground in the straight. When theres straight easterlies, it doesnt usually prevent horses from being able to run on at all, while also providing some advantage to being in front.
    When those winds swing around to a direct SE, thats usually when you see it very very hard for any back markers to make ground and unless you've got cover and getting a great cart into it.
    Would you define them as the same thing?

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