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R1- MISS MARGAUX steps to a mile for the first time and finds a race that she looks capable of leading in and controlling. Is a little one paced and this looks like the distance she has been searching for to play to her strengths. Has form around Karijini Aurora and Last Of The Line who would both blow this field away and if they employ similar tactics to her debut run she’ll take some catching.

R2- SURVEILLANCE resumes off the back of two quiet trials and looks the class runner here. Second in both career outings but behind quality pair Dom To Shoot and Gemma’s Son and the time off should bring natural improvement out of him. Has tactical speed and from the gate should enjoy a comfortable run behind the leaders and from there just needs even luck.

R3- MYSTERY MAN has been trialling like a horse with ability and bumps into a moderate field on debut. Has a few quirks and will only get better with race experience but can run a race. Missed the kick in his first trial and has been shaken up in both but ran nice enough time in both and did respond when asked. Likely settles back from barrier eight but should find cover in a big field and that will help him show his best.

R4- WRINKLY was responsible for a very strong tempo last start where he was still able to box on for a close second. Always prefer him back in trip between runs and although he probably can’t beat SHOWMANSHIP he looks much better value as a place proposition. Has produced two really strong runs with figures to match in his last two runs and if he reproduces those he can stretch the favourites neck.

R5- LEVITATE brings very strong 3yo form for this clash against the older horses and he looks hard to beat. From the wide gate expect him to come across and lead them and so the backup looks a big positive for him. Has been ultra competitive when finding one or two better in each of his last three and only beaten slender margins. If he can continue in this vein of form he should be able break through for a deserved win.

R6- MOOD SWINGS is yet to run a bad race in four career starts and expecting another big run here. Got the scalp on Bright Diamond last start who has won since and before that was third behind Indian Pacific and Windstorm who have won another three between them. Although he maps a little awkwardly and may end up three deep last he’s got talent and a turn of foot to get him out of trouble. At this stage of his career the 1000m looks to be his preferred distance and with the speed on he’ll charge late.

R7- NERODIO has nothing to his way last start when wide throughout and out the back on a rail hot day. Willing to give him another chance in a race where he can use his tactical speed and barrier to sit a lot closer in running. Like him staying at 1200 and the three weeks between runs should have him a little fresher to show his turn of foot. On his first up run over the short course he should be right in this.

R8- Best Bet: FUHRER has been a different class of horse this campaign and looks ready for 2000m. Did nothing but work last start four deep over a hot speed and stuck on tremendously considering. Looks a better horse when ridden with cover and this looks a good opportunity to do so with a few horses engaged who like to roll. Is one of the better weighted horses for this in a set weights race and with a few engaged who may not get a strong 2000 he looks very hard to beat.

R9- CAMBIST was good fresh behind Kay Cee in the Belmont Guineas and really gets her chance with that filly scratched. Has always gotten under the guard but she has ability and can stay as proven by her runs in Autumn features and 2200 victory against older horses. Wasn’t far off matching Kay Cee in the straight last start which is no mean feet and is much better suited at 2000. Does no work from barrier one and will just need a run in the straight.

R10- KING BLITZ is a quality animal and looks really well placed back into 72+ grade. Had a lot against him last start with bar plates on, eight weeks between runs and having to get a long way back from the barrier. Now gets the bars off and a barrier to sit closer in the run which is big help to him. Keeping the claimed on is a positive and at his best could and has beat far better fields than this.
+1 -1

Thepluckygambler likes this post.

Comments

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    8,134 posts
    Very keen Fred Dag, $10 nice each way bet in the last.

    The fav might win for Pike, but $1.70, no thanks
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    3,185 posts
    Jumped off the BLITZ H? Boy oh boy he will go close if the kid steers well with just 57kgs...agree the fav is quite a deal of unders, untried at the trip and 2nd up.....

    H-BOMBER, thefalcon likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    8,134 posts
    edited July 3
    Probably back both at the prices. Agree KB looks right in it
  • ThepluckygamblerThepluckygambler    66 posts
    edited July 4
    Serenity Bay is in a different class. Margins and times please.

    I poured over the form for this meeting and I could only really find 1 that to me is a standout.

    Race 2 Surveillance $3.50

    This bloke went huge at his first campaign behind Gemma’s Son especially. There’s really only 1 horse in this race that I could give a case to get anywhere near it and it’s drawn 11 and will probably be giving surveillance a start. I was hoping when prices came out he would be in the black but the price is utterly preposterous. Has had 2 trials so is ready to win. Brown has one ride so I’m sure he’s not coming to Belmont for a late afternoon trisket. If pike was riding this horse it would be $1.60.

    I’ll be also taking the double with Serenity bay in the last. Elsewhere I think Prim and Proper will be right in the thick of it.
  • TheDivaTheDiva    12,439 posts
    What did you make of the trials? First was dreadful I thought. Couldn’t glean much from the second as He was snagged at the start, then didn’t get a lot of room. Not the kind of trials that would warrant an odds on shot?

    hash likes this post.

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    3,185 posts
    I know your message is directed to plucky but I agree with you...nothing stands out in it's trials.
    First half of the card doesn't really interest me at all like a couple later that are fairly short ..maybe a little too short the latter but winning form is good form?

    Boomtastic..just sits off a hot pace and goes whooshka.

    Indian Pacific..evens is short enough but this is one honest customer.

    R8 looks an even contest am wary of the roll Lindsey Smith is on but I've always had an opinion of No Apology so i have him on top.

    Chantrea looks hard to beat in the Oaks but it's hard to split the top three and you could argue she is unders compared to the other two who have run super well around Kaycee.
    Hope Heaven's Gift runs a big race for @Bull and co..she should be strong late.

    As for Serenity Bay..fuggedaboutit! go the BLITZ train.

  • JellJell    1,155 posts
    edited July 4
    R5 - Jag The Joker (Each Way)

    Always consitent and steps up in grade but I find Ash Maley knows when his runners are ready to take on harder races. I've mapped this race to have little pace, so I think Kyra will be able to lead or box seat from barrier 10. If it's going to be run like I think it is, she might just be able to hold them all out in the finish.

    R8 - Arrowswift (Each Way)

    Won like a true stayer last start. Granted it was a maiden class but I think the way he just settled and switched off then ran home. This 3YO staying races can sometimes be anyone's race and at big odds, I'm willing to back him.

  • TheDivaTheDiva    12,439 posts
    My eyes did not fail me...surveillance went busted

    Thunderstruck, choc likes this post.

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    3,185 posts
    Is under surveillance for impersonating a racehorse today :P

    TheDiva likes this post.

  • chocchoc    772 posts
    I love Shaun but could a jock change bring about a difference with Sowar.
    It puts on a “be on my next time” type of run every start, yes that’s the perils of a get-back type but could’ve saluted more times than actually has
  • hashhash    6,971 posts
    Chantrea hasn’t beaten nothing so far
    If it wasn’t for the L.Smith polish id be saying she’s the lay of the day but the way the stable is firing atm you just can’t tip against them

    Lack of pace won’t suit Cambist but the smallish field keeps it closer than usual hopefully, tipping Cambist and rooting for Karijini
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    3,185 posts
    Karijini might be the one most suited if they go slow.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    3,185 posts
    Smfh :-q
  • therealkramertherealkramer    7,581 posts
    edited July 4
    Watching the pre-race commentary on Sky Thoroughbred Central and @OliversTwist is a true professional. If I had the gig I'd be saying "If Uncle Dick gets a soft lead he could be hard to beat"  >:)
  • therealkramertherealkramer    7,581 posts
    You could say the horse limped into 3rd ;))

    Thunderstruck likes this post.

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    3,185 posts
    Massive run Heaven's Gift! She is a very very good filly for just 6 large $-)
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    3,185 posts
    Whattafuggenjoke.....
    H you would be gutted getting beat by that big GOAT commiserations to you...
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    8,134 posts
    :-&
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    3,185 posts
    MEEEOOOWWWWW!
  • paraleticparaletic    3,564 posts
    Gotta give it to that girl, if she can get that non winner over the line in the last she must have an awesome amount of talent
  • BlacksAFakeBlacksAFake    2,243 posts
    Not the worst animal going around
  • hashhash    6,971 posts
    edited July 4

    Watching the pre-race commentary on Sky Thoroughbred Central and @OliversTwist is a true professional. If I had the gig I'd be saying "If Uncle Dick gets a soft lead he could be hard to beat"  >:)




    He goes by another (new) username on here these days

    Funny you mention that about calling Dick pre race, I was in the commentary box with some friends to listen to the call from the box with Darren Mc the day Clever Dick won it’s maiden.. we joked pre race if he had any (clean) one liners he could use if Clever Dick one. He didn’t end up using any suggested but funnily enough the horse won and as it crosses the line he calls “today’s the day for Dick” #-o :))

    therealkramer likes this post.

  • VicbitterVicbitter    28 posts
    Sorry but that self induldent rubbish I have just read is laughabLe bragging “carry on”- we all own. Horses (so everyone now thinks great being in the box with Darren’)
  • therealkramertherealkramer    7,581 posts
    edited July 5
    hash said:

    Watching the pre-race commentary on Sky Thoroughbred Central and @OliversTwist is a true professional. If I had the gig I'd be saying "If Uncle Dick gets a soft lead he could be hard to beat"  >:)




    He goes by another (new) username on here these days

    Funny you mention that about calling Dick pre race, I was in the commentary box with some friends to listen to the call from the box with Darren Mc the day Clever Dick won it’s maiden.. we joked pre race if he had any (clean) one liners he could use if Clever Dick one. He didn’t end up using any suggested but funnily enough the horse won and as it crosses the line he calls “today’s the day for Dick” #-o :))

    D Mac has to be careful with calling a horse like that especially with Pike riding. He could end up saying “Uncle Dick is bursting through a gap late”. I wonder if it would even be noticed on here anyway? Someone would complain that he called the 7th and 8th placed horses over the line incorrectly.
  • spinkingspinking    2,729 posts
    Mailman you should have called yourself just twisted and bitter instead of Vicbitter. Sh.t beer in my opinion but you don't do it any justice at all
  • thefalconthefalcon    16,789 posts
    will madi derrick assume the vacated throne of jade mcnaught?
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