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Victoria Derby 2020.

East Coast Racing
Updated or general thoughts/predictions anyone?

I'm sticking with 2 at this stage.

Ain'tnodeeldun $12 and one that goes around on Saturday Cetshwayo with a red hot Jamie Kah in the saddle..assuming he runs very well or wins he should firm considerably from the current $14 quote.

No knock on Young Werther $6 also trained by O'Brien but when does he run again at the Valley next week then backs up a week later? I like the idea of 2 weeks between runs for these youngsters
Also read that Grand Slam is Cox Plate bound so could be a doubtful derby runner or at best will be a bit gassed for the task also.
+1 -1

Gilgamesh likes this post.

Comments

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    8,320 posts
    I'll stick with Deepstrike at massive odds
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    3,827 posts
    Not sure what connections thought but Cetshwayo went through the line well I thought.Kah got left flatfooted nearing the turn(that or the horse was a bit one paced)but he stuck to the task in a satisfactory prep run.
    2500 and back to the bigger track will be right in his wheelhouse I think.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    3,827 posts
    edited October 27
    Young Werther has probably benefitted from not running in the very soft ground last week, you would be foolish not to trust Danny O'Brien having him ready is a master trainer of stayers as we all know.Sounded bullish fitness wouldn't be an issue at all.

    His second stringer Cetshwayo is middle of the market at $21 and whilst I have a hunch he will run just an honorable fifth or so at those odds or potentially better with a boost is worth an ew ticky.
    Back to Flemington and 2500 will suit and Jamie Kah is white hot atm..look for him finishing off strongly from the 2nd half of the field.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    8,320 posts
    Amazing that if Young Werter wins, his rating apparently will go to around 112 for beating his own age group which are no better than bench mark 64 raters. I guess the rating means nothing if you race against your own age and then retire.

    112. That's higher than many of this year's cup starters! Seems WFA or retirement beckons as soon as the 3yo season is over.

    The system seems broken to me.

    thefalcon likes this post.

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    3,827 posts
    edited October 29
    Opinion lately is should we reconsider the distance for spring edition with the 3 yos so new getting out to 2500.
    Dunno about that always think of a Derby being around 2400.

    Back to the race on Saturday i think the track will be ok or not too wet at worst, my tips are.

    Young Werther
    Cetshwayo place heavy AND
    I will be cheering for the Kersley/Cumani combo, reckon their knocking on the door for a maiden group 1 and their in form as usual.Cumani seemed pretty bullish and it's a pretty open race.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    8,320 posts
    edited October 29
    Kersely/Cumani had a double today I think

    I'll be on Hit the Shot. Monster run last start. In saying the the fav is now $4.

    Thunderstruck likes this post.

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    3,827 posts
    They sure did, it is a big winning chance.

    Also Fred rides Future Score in the Hotham he is a big chance also this could be Fred's greatest day in the saddle..is getting a few more rides lately too.

    *I've sacked Schabau, have been on it all 3 starts watch it knock me off on Saturday.
  • thefalconthefalcon    17,012 posts
    if that field didn't have "Derby" and "$2mio" above it we'd all say "pass".
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    3,827 posts
    Tend to agree but I would have to check the winners list to look for any stars in the past 20 years..perhaps my memory is forked. :D

    So i had a squizz and don't recall really if some retired early or not but only Elvstroem had star quality and stands out since 2000?.Efficient won a Melbourne Cup(knocking me off in the process #$$^ it) but was mostly inconsistent in every other race it started in.

    Still remember the Nothin Leica Dane/Octagonal race, the runner up turned into a huge star and Gai cooked the winner(what a fn joke that was)who still battled on in the ensuing years, so they were of high quality but nearly 25 years ago now.

    A couple will turn out alright from this edition the potential good ones just haven't had many runs or exposure?
    The tail is deep though with a few potential camels seemingly but good luck to them..its up to the powers that be to address quality, timing, is the distance still appropriate etc.
    We will still bet on the race regardless, it's tradition and Derby day!
  • NevershowsurpriseNevershowsurprise    836 posts

    They sure did, it is a big winning chance.

    Also Fred rides Future Score in the Hotham he is a big chance also this could be Fred's greatest day in the saddle..is getting a few more rides lately too.

    *I've sacked Schabau, have been on it all 3 starts watch it knock me off on Saturday.

    Really significant jockey change on Schabau thoughThunder

    Thunderstruck likes this post.

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    3,827 posts
    Do you think Pikey botched it last time @Never? I think he admitted as much to connections..to his credit.
    Zahra going on does make me wary horse looks to have plenty of ability just a pocketburner for me though, maybe a quinella saver or a benny two bets strategy.
  • NevershowsurpriseNevershowsurprise    836 posts
    edited October 30

    Do you think Pikey botched it last time @Never? I think he admitted as much to connections..to his credit.
    Zahra going on does make me wary horse looks to have plenty of ability just a pocketburner for me though, maybe a quinella saver or a benny two bets strategy.

    Mark knows the horse well, the horse runs for him which is not surprising as he’s got the softest hands in the game. The horse gets on the chewy so I suspect that’s why he runs for Mark. Will has torched him all campaign

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    3,827 posts
    Yep agree there, is also why he got the Verry Elleegant gig..soft hands.Has produced a fair effort on her back so far too god bless him.

    Nevershowsurprise likes this post.

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    3,827 posts
    I'll use this thread for tips for the day will likely be a quiet thread on recent form.Hopefully no selfjonah as Derby day and a good track generally means a good day to punt.

    In the Empire Rose I'm not jumping on the 3 yo's bandwagon I think Yendall will apply some pressure on the Freedman filly and as a result reckon they both get tired late.Class wise this leaves me with just the one horse who signalled she was back last start in Melody Belle..not my favourite steerer on but Mcevoy surely just possies up 1.1 or 1.2 at worst and goes bang late.Pretty Brazen will be thereabouts if ridden economically.

    I think the Coolmore is a 2 horse race, am sacking the fillies albeit their in good nick imo a good boy will beat a good girl, ask Libertini last year.
    Bossy says "if he turns up Farnan will win by 3 or 4 lengths".The colt has had the one infamous run this prep where he was gassed about 7 weeks ago since then has had a month to get over it, trialled like a jet in Sydney for bossy and ran well in a jump out up the straight with the same pilot last week.Not worried about the hiccup first up its ancient history, the good track will be fine he just about wins with one proviso..back Wild Ruler too he could be x factor like Exceedance last year the Snowden camp is as good as anyone in bringing the right horse down to melb to compete, he can win if Farnan is a bit off.

    Long winded assessment but makes sense(to me anyway) :D

    In the Cantala I was taken by Non Comformist's win last time great bet e.w at $11+ should sit a few pairs back and off decent race pressure he will be strong as can be late, Grahame Begg really rates this 4yo.
    Whilst a couple right up in the weights have group 1 form they may be left with too much to do, Wild Planet is a slight query at a mile but should get a great run..it is a very open race.Rock a sneaky chance also.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    8,320 posts
    I'll have a bit each way on Anders. Before last start was to be anything. I don't think he got found out, they went stupid from the 1000 and he's been beaten a NK in a 3 horse race. Pulled up with heat stress, so not sure how that would affect him. At the 10s I'd be willing to forgive.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    3,827 posts
    *just noticed the sometimes stupid predictive text determined Melody Belle of course I meant Mystic Journey in the Empire Rose :\">

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    3,827 posts
    Lane snatches defeat from the jaws of victory 8-X
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    3,827 posts
    Well I reckon I was right about Schabau and the fn thing crowded mine enough(Future Score)to have it missing the drum outright by a pimple.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    3,827 posts
    *did not know this, Sportsbet pay full dividend on dead heaters <:-P
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    3,827 posts
    Hats off to Denis Pagan he would be stoked asf. ^:)^

    jum likes this post.

  • PCPC    1,716 posts
    Yess. Johnny Get Angry...wins the G1 Victoria Derby (2500m). I knew he'd run the 2500m. Trained by two-time AFL Premiership coach Denis Pagan. Got him at $31 earlier in the week. $600 back. Chinese for dinner.

    oldhendo likes this post.

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