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Melbourne Cup 3.11.2020.

East Coast Racing
Starting up a thread for the big race..any thoughts after the barrier draw and the horses racing on likely a good track(I'd love a soft 5 or preferably 6 as would a few others)?

+1 -1

Ridersonthestorm33 likes this post.

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  • PCPC    1,768 posts
    2020 Melbourne Cup Field: Current Timeform Rating Heading into Cup

    Anthony Van Dyck (IRE): 127

    Avilius (GB): 120

    Vow And Declare (AUS): 114

    Master Of Reality (IRE): 112

    Sir Dragonet (IRE): 123

    Twilight Payment: 118

    Verry Elleegant (NZ): 120

    Mustajeer (GB): 119

    Stratum Albion (GB): 119

    Dashing Willoughby (GB): 105

    Finche (GB): 115

    Prince Of Arran (GB): 116

    Surprise Baby (NZ): 115

    King Of Leogrance (FRA): 113

    Russian Camelot (IRE): 124

    Steel Prince (IRE): 115

    The Chosen One (NZ): 115

    Ashrun (FRA): 114

    Warning (AUS): 118

    Etah James (NZ): 107

    Tiger Moth (IRE): 120

    Oceanex (NZ): 104

    Miami Bound (NZ): 113

    Persan (AUS): 113
  • ChrisChris    4,540 posts
    Impossible as always. Still enamored with Russian Camelot. Thought Steel Prince ran well in the Cup last year too. Warning a big price too, set for this.

    thefalcon likes this post.

  • TheDivaTheDiva    12,602 posts
    I’m already on Russian cameltoe at the massive unders, but I’ll be backing tiger moth and maybe one other.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,632 posts
    There both around or upwards of 25/1...both in great form before let up...stablemates trained by Joseph O'Brien...Master Of Reality and Twilight Payment back both eachway and collect!

    Think two other good ones at a price the galloping gasometer Finche at around 20/1 and at about 40/1 might need rain but was unlucky in the Caulfield Cup - Avilius.

    therealkramer likes this post.

  • Precision1Precision1    177 posts
    Agree With the 2 Joseph O’Brien runners Riders, add Russian Camelot and Tiger Moth and I think the winner comes from that lot.  Add Steel Prince, Surprise Baby and Verry Elleegant for the novelties. 
  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    6,304 posts
    Tiger Moth is there due to the handicapper's generosity. Gave it the penalty required for automatic entry
  • PCPC    1,768 posts

    Tiger Moth is there due to the handicapper's generosity. Gave it the penalty required for automatic entry




    What penalty? What race did it win to attract a weight penalty?
  • tonytony    2,053 posts
    Kilternen Stakes. He was originally allocated 50kg and Carpenter gave him 2.5 for that win
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    4,565 posts
    $8 the field a short while ago!..very very open indeed and a Good track harms a few "allegedly" wet track only horses.
  • thefalconthefalcon    17,398 posts
    hard to see that moth horse win..a 3yo and only 4 starts...pass.. L-)

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  • TheDivaTheDiva    12,602 posts
    Granted inexperienced, but cross counter and rekindling won as 3yos.

    oldhendo, Yankee, therealkramer likes this post.

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    4,565 posts
    Maybe in my trifecta not sure on just the 4 starts either.

    Nearly every replay I see of european 2400 metre wins/races I've noticed they clock around 2.33 as a minimum(am quoting good going races btw)and Van Dick ran 2.38 winning the Epsom Derby thats SLOW even in swahili language.I contest the theory they like to roll along some don't and also aren't contesting or winning fastrolling tempo races as far as I can tell.

    More decent speed i reckon some of them blow a poofer valve not all but that's what makes it harder which will and which won't and is partly why I still stick with the locals more often..
    Having said all that then the cup is more slowly run like last year, their imo better suited and fill 3 of the first 4 holes.

    If VE is a knock with 55.5 so is AVD with 58.5 a half kilo swing won't make any or very minimal difference.
    Same same if she is a query at 3200 so is he..I still see the mare beating him.
  • spinkingspinking    2,988 posts
    Liked the run of Prince of Aran in the Caulfield cup and you know he will get the trip maybe third time lucky for me

    Thunderstruck, thefalcon likes this post.

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    4,565 posts
    edited November 2020
    Forgot to mention..forget his age Prince Of Arran is going probably better than ever..is a REAL winning chance and I will cheer the f^&*en joint down if he does :D

    thefalcon, spinking likes this post.

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    4,565 posts
    Great minds Spink ;)

    spinking likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    17,398 posts
    thunder, don't forget the English have far different training methods than us. you see 3yo's contesting their derby first up, stamina built up going up and down those rolling dales. the tracks are different so hence the times are different, i think they have more uphill sections than we do.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    4,565 posts
    Yep understand the track variations probably play a part..but there racing isn't as "fast" as they make it out to be imo.
    Barring an 5% incline for a furlong(I jest a bit there)that Derby in particular is still quite slow to my eye..i did not however Google standard times there probably should or should have already.

    Only as good as your last cup result right Falc?
    Let's just say based on my bets and success last year i'm a good chance again so am bullish I'll be around the mark.
    "Crash" Dettori isnt here this year is he? I owe him big-time.
  • Ridersonthestorm33Ridersonthestorm33    10,632 posts
    edited November 2020
    Ripley's believe it or not!

    Was just 11 starts ago that Surprise Baby ran 5th at 2/1 in a BM70 at Stawell over 1300m coming from 6th on the corner to run 5th...hoop Jordan Child's stated he feels the horse needs more ground.

    Only three runs later won the Adelaide Cup over 3200.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    4,565 posts
    edited November 2020
    Saturday's winner Ashrun at $17 or thereabouts looks unders to me..won in a 2rd or 3rd grade field hence the big weight but this is a bridge too far.

    *21s now but still too short and has gate 24 as well.
  • thefalconthefalcon    17,398 posts
    just saw tiger moth on 7 news....well named, he's about the size of a moth...
  • PCPC    1,768 posts

    Saturday's winner Ashrun at $17 or thereabouts looks unders to me..won in a 2rd or 3rd grade field hence the big weight but this is a bridge too far.

    *21s now but still too short and has gate 24 as well.





    The Hotham Stakes, more often then not, is a 2nd or 3rd rate field. Horses who win the Hotham have run well in the Cup
  • ChrisChris    4,540 posts
    Tiger Moth in top 4 seems a good bet
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    4,565 posts
    This Cup is a Hot field if you believe all the import lovers though :D , Prince Of Arran will still give them all what for of the visitors imo, 7/8yo or not age shall not weary him.
  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    6,304 posts
    I will be in the minority but I don't think Tiger Moth will run a place let alone win the cup. That Grade 3 it won in Ireland was a very ordinary race. Falcon, Jum & Paraletic could have filled the first four behind it  :D

    Thunderstruck, RIO likes this post.

  • The_BullThe_Bull    885 posts
    Not a race I would normally have a bet on, but $9 about Miami Bound to run a place will give me something to yell at.
  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    6,304 posts
    edited November 2020
    Anthony Van Dyck if not for Bowman's Shane Dye impression wins the Caulfield Cup comfortably. Remember that the violins were out for the runner up after it defeated Stradivarius. Despite the weight If it stays the two miles it will win the Cup.

    I usually ignore horses that have run unsuccessfully in the race previously...One way to limit the field.... However I would love to see Steel Prince run a big race and not because of the Pike factor but the horse raced a bit keen early before staying on and only beaten a couple of lengths last year when rumoured not to be 100%. Worth an each way bet.

    RIO likes this post.

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    4,565 posts
    I agree Slip I can see a.good few kicking it's arse also :D Same goes for the toppie although he has a better chance from that draw.

    Waller is bullish about the beautiful mare and says analysts and other neville's which doubt her on a dry track have nfi..well he worded it a bit differently but in summary is not worried one bit :P
    I'll be a bit cut already by 12 noon and will be channelling some Hewitt theatrics.. CMON!! Or Jarrad Lyle.

    RIO likes this post.

  • PCPC    1,768 posts
    This year I'm going to look for some value, in terms of the horse that I am backing outright - Ashrun: won the G3 Hotham Stakes (2500m) with the top weight of 61kg, and now drops a whopping 8kg for the Melbourne Cup and will carry 53kg. Has a good trainer too who's won the Cup before. Only concerns are the 3-day back up and 3rd run in 13 days. But at $21 Ashrun is worth looking at. I'll have Surprise Baby and Tiger Moth and others (including Ashrun) in my trifecta. Good luck to you all and lets hope we can tip many winners on Melbourne Cup day.
  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    6,304 posts
    edited November 2020
    tony said:

    Kilternen Stakes. He was originally allocated 50kg and Carpenter gave him 2.5 for that win

    If it was to win the cup and I made the following comment it would be assessed as sour grapes so I will say it now..... Based on that last race Tiger Moth should not be in the cup field. It should never have received the 2.5 penalty for winning the very average grade 3 in Ireland. 

    Remind me again what penalty Verry Elleegant received for winning the Caulfield Cup. Yes a half kilo. 

    Carpenter certainly nailed the Aiden assist for cup entry.
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