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Ascot 20/01/2021

West Australian Racing
Not a bad little card tomorrow, R1 is a small yet quite interesting field with some decent horses engage, there are 4 last start winners with Lindsey Smith's Nostradamus gelding the dominant fav and probably rightly so.Clearly Hefel will lead with probably Saturn Black keeping him company and the other two in the market smoking the pipe and trying to run the hotpot down late.I am a big fan of Gunmetal Grey and the pilot but she may struggle to beat the fav and even hold off Pikey's, however could still improve a little more at her 2nd time in the Blinkers.
What betting strategy suits best i'm still determining, what are other ptt'ers thoughts if any?
Max plunge the fav, with some $2/2.05 boosted available..? OR a smaller plunge the same galloper and the other funds establish who runs second and take a sizeable quin or exacta(which if you have pikey's in for second wont pay a lot more than 2.05)? Even the trifecta option with the other two in boxes 2 and 3 probably works as i think Saturn Black will get gassed.

Comments

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    4,527 posts
    edited January 19
    Paul Harvey is 7/23 this year and only 1 of the winners has started favourite Ration Aly @2.20.

    Re R1 just noticed In The Boat has also accepted for a 1200m C1 at Pinjarra on thursday.
  • TrainTrain    93 posts
    R1- Best Bet: GRACEFUL GIRL broke through last start after struggling at her first two starts on leader dominated tracks. Sat out the back and displayed an electric turn of speed to score soft on the line. Gets back again here but the smaller field suits her as does what looks like a strong speed. She looks very promising can make it two in a row now.

    R2- MELARAB won well first up when leading throughout but has been struggling to get into his races from back in the field since. Is out to 2200 for the first time and with the blinkers on expecting they will return to positive tactics if he can get a clean jump. This is the easiest race he has contested since winning his maiden and hasn’t been racing poorly. Looks a horse that will stay all day.

    R3- HOT ZED still has a lot to learn but will win a race sooner or later. Never got into the race first up but has run a couple of nice seconds since. Chased home In The Boat second up who looks smart and was game leading last start when hitting the rail in running. Is drawn sticky but is getting better out the gates with each run and looks capable of finding the breeze here which looks a good spot.

    R4- DASH DOLL led running on debut and kept going to score in slick time. Was able show she isn’t one dimensional last start when breezing at a slower pace and showing a turn of foot to put the leader away. That leader came out and won at its next start so happy to trust the form. May have to work from the draw to find a spot near the front but has proven to be capable of doing it at both ends and no reason she can’t stay unbeaten.

    R5- MYSTERY MAN trialled nicely for his return to racing and didn’t disappoint first up. Sat prominently down the 1000m straight at Pinjarra and coasted past his rivals once asked for an effort to win easy. Sticks to 1000m here but it looks a high pressure race and he looks like he’ll be better back around a bend and with something to chase. Drawn middle of the line he should be able to find cover in the run so he can let down powerfully late.

    R6- MISTY LAD has looked a rejuvenated horse since venturing to the bay of isles. Had been racing a little flat early in his campaign but since joining the Neil Dellar yard and having blinkers reapplied has been an impressive 2/2. Led running and powered away from rivals in the straight running the fastest last 600 of the race at his first run before sitting midfield and again showing a powerful burst at 1600. If he can bring that form back to town with him he looks a great chance of giving Angela Johnston a city winner at her first crack in town.

    R7- PRIZED MISS beat a couple of handy ones on debut in a real sit sprint affair. She may only have had to get past three rivals but that meant out sprinting What About Moi and Smashing over 1200. What About Moi has since come out and won impressively while Smashing had been competitive in much stronger races than this. Drops weight into a moderate class one and looks suited out to 1400 and is drawn perfect in six to sit where she lands and show her real turn of foot.

    Buddy123 likes this post.

  • GoddGodd    177 posts
    R1-3
    R2-7
    R3-7
    R4-4
    R5-5
    R6-5
    R7-2
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    4,527 posts
    Paddy Carbery sure can steer them, a peachy ride just then on an average conveyance in the "run it ten times get ten different winners" C3 staying race.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    4,527 posts
    King's Authority :-?
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    4,527 posts
    terriffic ride by Hefel, jockey's can't be expected to extract the cat out of horses though :))
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    8,516 posts
    You are on a hiding to nothing with a 3kg apprentice on board, but if Avalon Bay can get a nice run and clear running I find it a massive chance
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    4,527 posts
    edited January 20
    be afraid H i like it too LOL..hardest to beat the bottom weight for Lucy..open race however.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    8,516 posts
    Differentiator in the last at big odds. I think resented being on speed last start and certainly would be going back today from 13, on a day they seem to be running on powerfully. 2 back with the young bloke on board just looking for much further which gets here and a senior jock.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    4,527 posts
    LOTS of luck needed but if the underpriced fav goes like one earlier Irritable Rodnee can give these other plodders a shake.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    4,527 posts
    IF in doubt back Laq Ramoly? Two i liked were scratched but the card turned out to be underwhelming if only Lucy's had of got up...
  • NgawyniNgawyni    563 posts
    Lucy hands and heels v Pateman 15 strikes with the whip in the last 200 - margin short half head.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    4,527 posts
    Ngawyni said:

    Lucy hands and heels v Pateman 15 strikes with the whip in the last 200 - margin short half head.

    fmd really? ugghhh...
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    8,516 posts
    You can follow Avalon Bay going forward. Got into a bit of trouble at the 150, not sure how, seemed to not like racing tight with Rock n Ruler. Senior jock needs to go on
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    8,516 posts
    Ngawyni said:

    Lucy hands and heels v Pateman 15 strikes with the whip in the last 200 - margin short half head.




    how many allowed in the last 100m? Looked about 10 to me
  • tonytony    2,052 posts
    unlimited in last 100

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

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