2019 APG Yearling Sale AnalysisHarness & Greyhounds

JayJay

I have done an analysis of the above sale.....lot number, sire, dam, purchase price, name (if applicable), racing record and stakes won (if applicable).....up to 04/03/2021. They are 3 year olds now and obviously this data does not include up coming classic races. It is on Microsoft Excel spreadsheet and if you would like a copy, just Inbox me an email address and I will forward as an attachment.

thefalcon

JJ did you get my message?

JayJay

Yes I replied to your Inbox.

Chariotsonfire

JayJay's analysis was very interesting and the real success stories of buying yearlings are there but are overshadowed by the many that do not make the grade.

Probably still the only way you can come across a serious horse without spending megabucks in NZ for 2 and 3 year olds.

JayJay

It is better than it looks....they are only 3 years old, a number of unraced horses will get to the races, quite a bit of feedback already about late unraced 3 year olds b eing back in work after showing something .....and the stakes earned do NOT include Westbred Bonuses. Be interesting to see where this group is at in March 2022.

curmudgeon

Can you send me a copy JJ. Very interested to have a bo peep at your work. Thanks in advance.

JayJay

Was considering sending it by boat ..given the colossal downpour you had....but have opted for F/Book Messenger. Trust it makes it and that you guys are somewhat back to normal.

Chariotsonfire

Great insight into the yearling sales and breeding to sell in WA JayJay.

Given that the Westbred bonuses are now significant I assume that they are not included in stake money as it may have an affect on handicapping through HWOE.

If they are not to be added surely RWWA could provide this information as an additional line item for Westbred bonuses to give a true picture of juvenile earnings.

Rocket_Reign

Chariotsonfire said:

Great insight into the yearling sales and breeding to sell in WA JayJay.

Given that the Westbred bonuses are now significant I assume that they are not included in stake money as it may have an affect on handicapping through HWOE.

If they are not to be added surely RWWA could provide this information as an additional line item for Westbred bonuses to give a true picture of juvenile earnings.

Even before HWOE the westbred bonus earnings wasn’t shown, definitely think it should be shown somewhere as it’s quite significant

JayJay

Correct Chariots, not included, presumably due to affect it would have on HWOE. And yes Rocket, it is very significant.

I did a similar analysis for the 2017 Sale up to last week. They are now 5 year olds with a much fuller picture of what they earned which would be an even better look if you could (a) find the Westbred Bonuses (somewhere) and (b) add them to their life time earnings. The results of that sale are very encouraging.....about 100 horses, 62 winners and about 80 actual starters, much higher I think than comparative thoroughbred sales. When I originally did it when they were 3 year olds, it didn't look that great......horses like Roman Art were listed as unnamed, unraced......now has $87.9k in the bank as a 5yo. Will forward to you if you want.

curmudgeon

Westbred bonuses were included in WA horse total earnings for a number of years.

What caused the removal was an edict from HRA that was a response to E/S breeders claiming they inflated WA Sires progeny earnings unfairly as the sires over east weren't able to access the bonus.

It was around the time of Amongst Royalty being the Australian 2 y/o filly of the year. I had a long running discussion with former HRV Racing Officer Adrian Barlow over the matter.

It was the reason that WA stallions sometimes sat near or on top of the Australian Sires Lists but generally got swamped at the end due to Breeders Crown Stakemonies going to the Art Majors /Bettors Delights/Mach Three etc etc.

My argument was that as advertisement to encourage owners the inclusion of bonuses reflected a horses true earnings....but here we are....shooting ourselves in the foot again....except now we also ignore the bonus schemes operating elsewhere in the country in the national records.

aussiebattler

JayJay said:

Correct Chariots, not included, presumably due to affect it would have on HWOE. And yes Rocket, it is very significant.

I did a similar analysis for the 2017 Sale up to last week. They are now 5 year olds with a much fuller picture of what they earned which would be an even better look if you could (a) find the Westbred Bonuses (somewhere) and (b) add them to their life time earnings. The results of that sale are very encouraging.....about 100 horses, 62 winners and about 80 actual starters, much higher I think than comparative thoroughbred sales. When I originally did it when they were 3 year olds, it didn't look that great......horses like Roman Art were listed as unnamed, unraced......now has $87.9k in the bank as a 5yo. Will forward to you if you want.

incidentally if they were under the NR system their WIn $ wouldn't affect the rating they had and true win dollars could be represented including all bonuses which would look better on paper for prospective investors 

Rocket_Reign

JayJay said:

Correct Chariots, not included, presumably due to affect it would have on HWOE. And yes Rocket, it is very significant.

I did a similar analysis for the 2017 Sale up to last week. They are now 5 year olds with a much fuller picture of what they earned which would be an even better look if you could (a) find the Westbred Bonuses (somewhere) and (b) add them to their life time earnings. The results of that sale are very encouraging.....about 100 horses, 62 winners and about 80 actual starters, much higher I think than comparative thoroughbred sales. When I originally did it when they were 3 year olds, it didn't look that great......horses like Roman Art were listed as unnamed, unraced......now has $87.9k in the bank as a 5yo. Will forward to you if you want.

I just found your email for some reason it went to junk, definitely doesn’t read up too bad the class of ‘17 still feel like they’re missing a huge advertising trick by not displaying bonus earnings

KTQ

Online links to 2017, 2018 and 2019 analyses made by JayJay:

2019:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OLkjoTTosZBoF2nyIdL5PMzbuiqMOKOqwjxxL-G9kkg/edit?usp=sharing

2018:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nGqIucXHAiJvZazdaK-O31afynxfF0tq5YDpzJxoGhs/edit?usp=sharing

2017: 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J7C-UKgw8d3SbVz3wM1WxLRl91cPaV3boKaJgTdNRxo/edit?usp=sharing

getthechange

good info jay jay and good post KTQ

KTQ

I'm no statistician but from my own analysis (found in a table to the right of the data), for 2017 the price range that sees the greatest percent of horses making profits for buyers is in the $10,000-19,999 price range (62%). (profit = higher prize money than purchase price). 

Of the horses sold that year that were profitable, 39% were in that price range. 

I hope my maths is correct. It'll be more interesting as these horses get older, they're currently only 4. 

westerncat

Race program for Yonkers tomorrow, with any horse bought from yearling sales having the sales price next to its name.

Markovina

Its just shows how dicey the yearling approach is re $s

Read in Saturdays West - Texas - the winner of the feature race at GP Frid Night - quotes from Hall Snr - said the owner Chapman paid about 70k for it - it had won its 1st 2 starts in NZ at that point in time 

Reading that -( and Halls Snr strike rate is amazing - just done it over and over again ) making buying yearlings - where you are going to pay decent money 35-40k - and you might get a complete dud - irrespective of whether it is related to previous top liners etc 

Where as 70k - for a horse who has won its 1st 2 starts in NZ - Hall Snr did say the NZ Owner 1st wanted 100k - but accepted about 70k 

JayJay

C'mon Marko, easy money to be made, join (or rejoin) the experience of owning. Jemmy the lid off the tea caddy, commission Hally to find you a Texas Tiger or better still, find one with hidden ability languishing in the stables of one of the hopeless trainers in WA, whiz it over the borders to a trainer who knows what he is doing and bingo, money in the bank.

Rocket_Reign

Markovina said:

Its just shows how dicey the yearling approach is re $s

Read in Saturdays West - Texas - the winner of the feature race at GP Frid Night - quotes from Hall Snr - said the owner Chapman paid about 70k for it - it had won its 1st 2 starts in NZ at that point in time 

Reading that -( and Halls Snr strike rate is amazing - just done it over and over again ) making buying yearlings - where you are going to pay decent money 35-40k - and you might get a complete dud - irrespective of whether it is related to previous top liners etc 

Where as 70k - for a horse who has won its 1st 2 starts in NZ - Hall Snr did say the NZ Owner 1st wanted 100k - but accepted about 70k 

The attraction to the yearlings is the bonuses, you race for almost double stake money at 2 and 3. Also all the races they become eligible for that the kiwis can’t go in.

AbbysAce

Markovina said:

Its just shows how dicey the yearling approach is re $s

Read in Saturdays West - Texas - the winner of the feature race at GP Frid Night - quotes from Hall Snr - said the owner Chapman paid about 70k for it - it had won its 1st 2 starts in NZ at that point in time 

Reading that -( and Halls Snr strike rate is amazing - just done it over and over again ) making buying yearlings - where you are going to pay decent money 35-40k - and you might get a complete dud - irrespective of whether it is related to previous top liners etc 

Where as 70k - for a horse who has won its 1st 2 starts in NZ - Hall Snr did say the NZ Owner 1st wanted 100k - but accepted about 70k 

Remember 70k is what the owner got, commision agent would have 10% or $7000, plus freight plus clearance fee to oz, probably 90k landed in Perth

Chariotsonfire

Still very much on the lower scale for Hall trained NZ imports and could prove to be one of his best purchases ever.

westerncat

10% commotion
10% gst
8k transport to Perth
$2600 to register the horse in Australia

You’ll want to start out as a multimillionaire, if you want to be a millionaire after going down that route

Rocket_Reign

AbbysAce said:

Markovina said:

Its just shows how dicey the yearling approach is re $s

Read in Saturdays West - Texas - the winner of the feature race at GP Frid Night - quotes from Hall Snr - said the owner Chapman paid about 70k for it - it had won its 1st 2 starts in NZ at that point in time 

Reading that -( and Halls Snr strike rate is amazing - just done it over and over again ) making buying yearlings - where you are going to pay decent money 35-40k - and you might get a complete dud - irrespective of whether it is related to previous top liners etc 

Where as 70k - for a horse who has won its 1st 2 starts in NZ - Hall Snr did say the NZ Owner 1st wanted 100k - but accepted about 70k 

Remember 70k is what the owner got, commision agent would have 10% or $7000, plus freight plus clearance fee to oz, probably 90k landed in Perth

It was 70 landed in Perth

JayJay

First 2 year old Trial: April 2019

Chariotsonfire

Tipping your purchase was a little cheaper JayJay.

JayJay

I tried to get Texas Tiger, made a decent (I thought) offer, politely declined, they were after five figures. Then a little later,  pursued and secured Awaitinginstructions (who wasn't on the market) after he had started racing (was still a maiden) and then even later, The Situation was referred to me after he had won a race. That is the nature of the game, win some, lose some.

savethegame

Classic turbo--- gran chico ----forgotten highway----- 900k.  total ?

freodockers

Couple good buys in there STG.