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Place odds calculation

Harness & Greyhounds
Hey crew, thinking chariots could help me out here but anyone wanting to hand out a year 10 maths lesson feel free to comment. 

Im well aware of the nature of creating a 100% win market ($2=50%, $4=25% etc) but how do you go about creating the equivalent of a 100% win market as a pure stand alone place market?? 

I can find info outlining books nowadays tend be offering somewhere between 18%-22% the win odds for place but that’s not really what I’m after more if you treated it as a seperate market how do you get that “perfect market”? Is it as simple as just going to 300%? 

Thanks for any feedback. 

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  • Rocket_ReignRocket_Reign    502 posts
    Gilgamesh said:

    Hey crew, thinking chariots could help me out here but anyone wanting to hand out a year 10 maths lesson feel free to comment. 


    Im well aware of the nature of creating a 100% win market ($2=50%, $4=25% etc) but how do you go about creating the equivalent of a 100% win market as a pure stand alone place market?? 

    I can find info outlining books nowadays tend be offering somewhere between 18%-22% the win odds for place but that’s not really what I’m after more if you treated it as a seperate market how do you get that “perfect market”? Is it as simple as just going to 300%? 

    Thanks for any feedback. 



    They seem to sit at about 350% so I guess 300 would be what’s required for breaking square etc

    Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • ChariotsonfireChariotsonfire    2,311 posts
    Correct Rocket 300% for a place percentage is the equivalent of a 100% win market.

    Gilga in my opinion there is no formula that relates the place price to the win price. On many occasions by virtue of the barrier a draw a horse may be a strong place chance but virtually impossible to win. For instance I may rate a horse at $41 to win but $2.50 to place.

    The greatest percentage of my betting is for the place based on speed maps and form. With Betfair getting down to the low 300s for the place in the last few minutes of betting some overs can usually be found. 

    freodockers likes this post.

  • GilgameshGilgamesh    3,802 posts

    Correct Rocket 300% for a place percentage is the equivalent of a 100% win market.


    Gilga in my opinion there is no formula that relates the place price to the win price. On many occasions by virtue of the barrier a draw a horse may be a strong place chance but virtually impossible to win. For instance I may rate a horse at $41 to win but $2.50 to place.

    The greatest percentage of my betting is for the place based on speed maps and form. With Betfair getting down to the low 300s for the place in the last few minutes of betting some overs can usually be found. 


    100% agree with you chariots completely different markets.
  • curmudgeoncurmudgeon    2,041 posts
    The prevailing thought for a long time especially when bookies were standing en masse was that 25% of the win div for a place was approaching value....... Chariots ?
  • GilgameshGilgamesh    3,802 posts
    Chariots do you still do full markets for races you are assessing? Or do you just price up the horses you are interested in and what you would want on a particular runner or with having done it for that long is it all done in your head?
  • ChariotsonfireChariotsonfire    2,311 posts
    Must admit that I rarely do a full market these days but I have been doing it for so long that I have an inbuilt perception of what is value and what is not in the horses that I think are wining chances.

    An example as to why 25% of win odds do not work for a bookmaker Curmudgeon:

    Win $2.50(6/4) 4.5(7/2) 51(50/1) 3.5(5/2) 8(7/1) 34(33/1) 34(33/1) 51(50/1)  113%
    Place 1.4(2/5) $1.90(9/10) 12.50(11.5/1) 1.6(4/6) 2.75(7/4) 8.00(7/1) 8.00(7/1) 12.50(11.5/1) 264%

    The above place percentage is 36% below the break even point.

    Conversely some large racing fields with a $5(4/1) favourite have very big place percentages that work in favour of the bookie. 

    A very good way to check percentages for win and place are:

    1. Dynamic Odds offer a very good price comparison service where you can select your own betting agencies including Betfair for comparison. At a cost of $35 per month it is for the serious punter.
    2. Odds Comparison | Compare Australia's Best Betting Odds (punters.com.au) is a free service and covers all three codes but is not as user friendly as Dynamic Odds.
    You will note that Tabtouch fixed odds are not available on either of the above services as their percentages in most cases tend to be uncompetitive. The Tabtouch argument is that they are out to make a profit that can be returned to the three codes locally in the form of distribution. I believe that harness racing is the least profitable of their fixed odds product.

    curmudgeon, Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • Rocket_ReignRocket_Reign    502 posts

    Must admit that I rarely do a full market these days but I have been doing it for so long that I have an inbuilt perception of what is value and what is not in the horses that I think are wining chances.


    An example as to why 25% of win odds do not work for a bookmaker Curmudgeon:

    Win $2.50(6/4) 4.5(7/2) 51(50/1) 3.5(5/2) 8(7/1) 34(33/1) 34(33/1) 51(50/1)  113%
    Place 1.4(2/5) $1.90(9/10) 12.50(11.5/1) 1.6(4/6) 2.75(7/4) 8.00(7/1) 8.00(7/1) 12.50(11.5/1) 264%

    The above place percentage is 36% below the break even point.

    Conversely some large racing fields with a $5(4/1) favourite have very big place percentages that work in favour of the bookie. 

    A very good way to check percentages for win and place are:

    1. Dynamic Odds offer a very good price comparison service where you can select your own betting agencies including Betfair for comparison. At a cost of $35 per month it is for the serious punter.
    2. Odds Comparison | Compare Australia's Best Betting Odds (punters.com.au) is a free service and covers all three codes but is not as user friendly as Dynamic Odds.
    You will note that Tabtouch fixed odds are not available on either of the above services as their percentages in most cases tend to be uncompetitive. The Tabtouch argument is that they are out to make a profit that can be returned to the three codes locally in the form of distribution. I believe that harness racing is the least profitable of their fixed odds product.



    Tabtouch fixed odds harness is a whole new ballgame of humour they bet me to win 100$ only
  • ChariotsonfireChariotsonfire    2,311 posts
    I get a much better deal from Bet365 the biggest bookie in the world I can get on to win $160..
  • sonnysonny    803 posts
    Hi Chariots .Is that on the trots??. Taking multis with then is the go..
  • ChariotsonfireChariotsonfire    2,311 posts
    It is Sonny and the reason they accept Multis is it form of betting that is very much in favour of the Bookie.

    From a return point of view you are invariably better off placing your bets individually and reinvesting the collect on the next leg.

    curmudgeon likes this post.

  • freodockersfreodockers    1,279 posts
    I learnt that one the hard way.
  • sonnysonny    803 posts
    I meant taking trixie, Yankee and heinze etc.. Like a parlay...
  • ChariotsonfireChariotsonfire    2,311 posts
    Same principal still applies Sonny you will be shafted with prices on the way through he process.

    If you have the time and discipline you can get a far better return by seeking the best prices race to race.

    Parlays should only be used when you cannot be on hand to do your business race to race.
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