G'day Punter!

In this Discussion

Who's Online

0 Members & 17 Non Members

2021 Caulfield Cup Thread

East Coast Racing
PCPC    1,905 posts
This can be the Caulfield Cup thread.

Comments

  • PCPC    1,905 posts

    Its been confirmed that Delphi will back up and run in the Caulfield Cup and Damien Oliver will ride. He has 52.5kg but may ride 0.5kg over at 53kg. But Delphi is a big player for sure with that rating and weight heading into the Caulfield Cup.

    It could be a wet Caulfield Cup too if what is predicted happens:

    http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/melbourne.shtml



    Timeform Ratings - Herbert Power Winners: Since 1999

    2021: Delphi: 118

    2020: Chapada - 109

    2019: The Chosen One - 114

    2018: Yucatan - 123

    2017: Lord Fandango - 108

    2016: Assign - 102

    2015: Amralah - 120

    2014: Big Memory - 112

    2013: Sea Moon - 124

    2012: Shahwardi - 115

    2011: Tanby - 109

    2010: Linton - 118

    2009: Alcopop - 118

    2008: Dolphin Jo - 113

    2007: Master O'Reilly - 109

    2006: Growl - 108

    2005: Leica Falcon - 108

    2004: Rizon - 106

    2003: Yakama - 101

    2001: Freemason - 114

    2000: Majestic Avenue - 108

    1999: Rogan Josh - 111


    Average Winning Rating - Past 5 Years: 114.4

    Average Winning Rating - Past 10 Years: 114.5

    Average Winning Rating - Past 15 Years: 114.1

    Average Winning Rating - 1999 to 2020: 112.1
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    5,408 posts
    edited October 10
    As commented on in the other thread surely weights will be raised 1.5kg because the topweight(Incentivise)must carry a min of 57? 
    Hard to imagine a premier group 1 staying race having a topweight carrying just 55.5?
    Anyway this is what i assume will happen Toppie rises to 57 everything else rises 1.5 also and the minimum becomes 51.5.

    Moving on, so Maher/Eustace dodged the 2400 with Floating Artist maybe anticipated the hard track too, does this with a number of his stayers we will see if it pays off midweek.Working on the fact he should have 51.5 in the CC after weights get raised it will be interesting to see who will ride him, though he still needs to win on Wednesday i think this is quite likely...

    Wasn't sure about Nonconformist though the weekend results of him nearly winning the M & P and Delphi who he just beat winning put him right in the mix, i still think FA is as good a top 3 chance as the others though.
  • PCPC    1,905 posts
    Weights won't be raised i think. So Incentivise will be top weight with 55.5kg
  • PCPC    1,905 posts
    From Greg Carpenter's Twitter account:

    "Getting lots of Qs re raising if weights for the Cups - Weights are as released - topweight currently Incentivise and Homesman at 55.5kg - NO - weights not raised"

    https://twitter.com/RVCarps/status/1446717199960268805?t=WFi_Oqh3TB1VLRWgYkbGzQ&s=19

    Thunderstruck likes this post.

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    5,408 posts
    Well that confirms it thanks, seems strange as i thought i had read it once but no recent mention of increasing.All good it kind of states a fairly evenly matched field then.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    9,171 posts
    A bit of Northerly about Incentivise's last win coming into this. Fights to the post. A good horse getting in on 55.5 seems to be all aligning for him.

    thefalcon, jum likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    18,010 posts
    ^ in other words "thrown in".

    H-BOMBER, jum likes this post.

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    5,408 posts
    Looks the standout on form with that weight, wonder if they will lead and roll alah the mighty one.
    I will have a smallish bet maybe but at $2 any "value" is long gone..
  • PCPC    1,905 posts
    In regards to Caulfield - I noticed there is quite a bit of rain forecaster for Melbourne. Like Flemington, I assume Caulfield drains quite well? Could we see a Caulfield Cup run on a soft track....maybe even a heavy track?
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    5,408 posts
    Likely decently soft if the rain forecast lands which will be better than if it's too hard, CC acceptors have paid 50 large for a gig so most would rather not run on a road i would guess.
    Don't think Caulfield drains as well as Flemington but does more than ok, rain during the meeting will probably be the bigger issue.

  • Precision1Precision1    257 posts
    The 50 Large is late acceptors fee not for all runners.  They should produce a good track unless the weather dictates they can’t.  Sick of connections of a horse that needs sting out of the ground complaining when they get a good track. All reports from Saturday are that horses have pulled up well. 
  • PCPC    1,905 posts

    Likely decently soft if the rain forecast lands which will be better than if it's too hard, CC acceptors have paid 50 large for a gig so most would rather not run on a road i would guess.

    Don't think Caulfield drains as well as Flemington but does more than ok, rain during the meeting will probably be the bigger issue.




    Who knows might get to the light side of heavy. Or heavy side of soft. Either way it opens things up a bit.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    5,408 posts
    edited October 12

    The 50 Large is late acceptors fee not for all runners.  They should produce a good track unless the weather dictates they can’t.  Sick of connections of a horse that needs sting out of the ground complaining when they get a good track. All reports from Saturday are that horses have pulled up well. 

    Incorrect, this is the schedule of fees for all runners : 

    Initial nom $1100
    !st,2nd,3rd declaration fees total $9900
    Final declaration on Wednesday is $37500

    That's $48500 for every runner.

    Agree to disagree on the hard track argument too though the track should be into the soft range this week anyway which is not a bad thing imo.
  • thefalconthefalcon    18,010 posts
    ^^ no wonder its the sport of kings..

    Thunderstruck likes this post.

  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    5,408 posts
    Bloody expensive to just run indeed though up to 10th get 120K in prizemoney, plenty of cashed up people about Falc like that Sikorsky fella who owns a piece of Verry Elleegant, Incentivise, Sir Dragonet to name a few prominent ones he is in(lucky bastard)with loaded mates and there are more i just can't think of any others at the minute.
  • PCPC    1,905 posts
    Quick Thinker will be running in the Caulfield Cup – the owners decided it was the right decision due to the forecast of rain for Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/melbourne.shtml



    It has a pretty good record on soft ground but an even better record on heavy ground (3 starts for 2 wins and a 3rd). Might be worth having a cup of coffee bet on the horse – not as talented as the favourites but if the track deteriorates due to the rain then who knows. You need to find a horse who will get through the rain affected track. Quick Thinker was paying $201 on Sunday, now he has shortened to $51.

    If the track deteriorates then for us as punters it makes things a bit tricky.

  • ArapahoArapaho    63 posts
    Brae Sokolski and Azizz (Ozzie) Kheir  is the other fella killing the pig ,both property developers.

    Kheir is  also in horses mentioned above and sure both were in Yes Yes Yes ,(Everest) with Kheir owning Marmelo 2nd Melb.Cup and may have had a share in Almandin when he won the Cup.

    Kheir also a big chance in Vic.Derby with both Hitotsu and Forgot You who were both running,on strongly in the Guineas.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    5,408 posts
    Yes Kheir was another guy i was thinking of and i did know he is in Forgot You who i rate highly as a galloper.Lucky guys i'm envious but good on them.Love to know what they paid for 50% of Incentivise don't recall the figure ever being mentioned..seems good shopping so far.
  • ArapahoArapaho    63 posts
    Thunder,
    It was  $600,000 for 50%
    Former owner/trainer Steve Tregea retained 50% and management of the horse.

    Thunderstruck likes this post.

  • ArapahoArapaho    63 posts
    It was Protectionist the Melbourne Cup winner,that Kheir had a share in,
     not Almandin, got my wires crossed.
  • detonatordetonator    3,226 posts
    Liking Nonconformist in the cup.
    Likes Caulfield. Won 2 on the soft. Has had a great lead up. Flying under the radar a bit.
    Can’t believe I am tipping a “Willow” horse but reckon he is a good eachway bet @ $12.00.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    5,408 posts
    edited October 13
    Should go alright mate.
    I'm undecided because i am a little worried the track could be a mess and the race could become disappointingly a raffle, so no early betting from me.
    Would have settled on Incentivise if he hadn't of drawn the car park so now is just no value even though he may still win, i'm no jock but if Prebble thinks he can possie up from there he is being ambitious i say they would still want/have to lead.
    A maddie or two have caught my eye one obviously is hard to trust fully, Master Of Wine.Another I may back is the toppie he is a sneaky and i don't think age has yet wearied him, the old boy Homesman though maybe not on a heavy track.Young Werther and The Chosen One look in form runners but i dont want YW to win thus maintaining a better Melbourne Cup price.

    Still disappointed they didnt have a crack with Sir Dragonet even with the impost he would have likely got perfect conditions Saturday
  • PCPC    1,905 posts
    Top 4 Finishes - Caulfield Cup Barriers: Past 25 Years


    2020
    1st: Verry Elleegant - barrier 8
    2nd: Anthony Van Dyke - barrier 17
    3rd: The Chosen One - barrier 2
    4th: Prince Of Arran - barrier 15

    2019
    1st: Mer De Glace - barrier 17
    2nd: Vow And Declare - barrier 7
    3rd: Mirage Dancer - barrier 9
    4th: Constantinople- barrier 5

    2018
    1st: Best Solution - barrier 15
    2nd: Homesman - barrier 4
    3rd: The Cliffsofmoher - barrier 3
    4th: Duretto - barrier 1

    2017
    1st: Boom Time - barrier 3
    2nd: Single Glaze - barrier 12
    3rd: Johannes Vermeer - barrier 2
    4th: Lord Fandango - barrier 9

    2016
    1st: Jameka - barrier 11
    2nd: Scottish - barrier 6
    3rd: Exospheric - barrier 3
    4th: Almoonqith - barrier 2

    2015
    1st: Mongolian Khan - barrier 6
    2nd: Trip To Paris - barrier 4
    3rd: Our Ivanhoe - barrier 13
    4th: Gust Of Wind - barrier 9

    2014
    1st: Admire Rakti - barrier 7
    2nd: Rising Romance - barrier 14
    3rd: Lucia Valentina - barrier 10
    4th: Brambles - barrier 9

    2013
    1st: Fawkner - barrier 10
    2nd: Dandino - barrier 16
    3rd: Dear Demi - barrier 18
    4th: Jet Away - barrier 11

    2012
    1st: Dunaden - barrier 18
    2nd: Alcopop - barrier 8
    3rd: Lights Of Heaven - barrier 7
    4th: Americain - barrier 15

    2011
    1st: Southern Speed - barrier 3
    2nd: Green Moon - barrier 13
    3rd: Tullamore - barrier 11
    4th: Manighar - barrier 4

    2010
    1st: Descarado - barrier 15
    2nd: Harris Tweed - barrier 8
    3rd: Monaco Consul - barrier 12
    4th: Shocking - barrier 10

    2009
    1st: Viewed - barrier 13
    2nd: Roman Emperor - barrier 4
    3rd: Vigor - barrier 18
    4th: Daffodil - barrier 3

    2008
    1st: All The Good - barrier 6
    2nd: Nom De Jeu - barrier 15
    3rd: Barbaricus - barrier 17
    4th: Mad Rush - barrier 13

    2007
    1st: Master O'Reilly - barrier 4
    2nd: Douro Valley - barrier 3
    3rd: Princess Coup - barrier 15
    4th: Blue Monday - barrier 7

    2006
    1st: Tawqeet - barrier 2
    2nd: Aqua D'Amore - barrier 3
    3rd: Delta Blues - barrier 14
    4th: Activation - barrier 4

    2005
    1st: Railings - barrier 9
    2nd: Eye Popper - barrier 7
    3rd: Mummify - barrier 17
    4th: Natural Blitz - barrier 6

    2004:
    1st: Elvstroem - barrier 3
    2nd: Makybe Diva - barrier 17
    3rd: Grey Song - barrier 11
    4th: Vouvray - barrier 12

    2003
    1st: Mummify - barrier 13
    2nd: Grey Song - barrier 17
    3rd: Distinctly Secret - barrier 4
    4th: Makybe Diva - barrier 18

    2002
    1st: Northerly - barrier 9
    2nd: Fields Of Omagh - barrier 10
    3rd: Republic Lass - barrier 1
    4th: Distinctly Secret - barrier 8

    2001
    1st: Ethereal - barrier 10
    2nd: Sky Heights - barrier 17
    3rd: Celestial Show - barrier 8
    4th: Hill Of Grace - barrier 7

    2000
    1st: Diatribe - barrier 11
    2nd: Kaapstad Way - barrier 16
    3rd: Fairway - barrier 13
    4th: Freemason - barrier 9

    1999
    1st: Sky Heights - barrier 9
    2nd: Laebeel - barrier 2
    3rd: Inaflury - barrier 8
    4th: Rogan Josh - barrier 17

    1998
    1st: Taufan's Melody - barrier 9
    2nd: Lisa's Game - barrier 13
    3rd: Tie The Knot - barrier 4
    4th: Faithful Son - barrier 2

    1997
    1st: Might And Power - barrier 7
    2nd: Doriemus - barrier 10
    3rd: Catalan Opening - barrier 11
    4th: Markham - barrier 12

    1996
    1st: Arctic Scent - barrier 2
    2nd: Circles Of Gold - barrier 6
    3rd: Iron Horse - barrier 14
    4th: Doriemus - barrier 1

    1995
    1st: Doriemus - barrier 5
    2nd: Count Chivas - barrier 4
    3rd: Beaux Art - 7
    4th: Protara's Bay - barrier 6

    detonator, Arapaho likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    18,010 posts
    i take it you are retired PC and spend a bit of time in your manshed.... :-\"

    Manchild, Arapaho likes this post.

  • PCPC    1,905 posts
    thefalcon said:

    i take it you are retired PC and spend a bit of time in your manshed.... :-\"




    I'm 34 - I wish I was retired
  • PCPC    1,905 posts
    Quick Thnker - scratched.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    5,408 posts
    PC said:

    thefalcon said:

    i take it you are retired PC and spend a bit of time in your manshed.... :-\"




    I'm 34 - I wish I was retired
    Falc wishes he was 34  :))

    thefalcon, Manchild likes this post.

  • thefalconthefalcon    18,010 posts
    no i don't, thunder...the world is fu**ed. who would want to bring a child into this uncertain planet.

    Thunderstruck, Rex, bigorangecat likes this post.

  • ColdyColdy    1,644 posts
    Have a very large rain front about to move through currently ,going to be a soggy underfoot . Currently a soft 5 ,suspect it will venture into Heavy . Might have a ew on Montefilia 

    Nevershowsurprise likes this post.

  • SLIPPERGOLDENSLIPPERGOLDEN    6,482 posts
    Though Melbourne Cup is the target I will play Ocean Billy each way at long odds
Sign In or Register to comment.