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PGA Tour 2022/2023 Season

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H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
I thought it might be appropriate to start a new thread for the new season.

It will be for all golf discussion and my analysis of tournaments on the PGA tour and the Majors.

With the PGA tour incorporating new changes for the season, the "fall swing" will be lower key, but nonetheless, provide an outlet for the golf sickos among us and provide an excellent challenge in finding those outright winners.

Last season I finished with 13/44 outright winners at a return of over +300 units for the season, thanks to a healthy back end leading up to the Tour Championship. Let hope for the same this season and get off to a bang early. 

Comments

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    OK. Week 1. 

    The Fortinet Championship. The launching point for the new, wide eyed Korn Ferry graduates and a new start for the seasoned pros grinding out a living on the tour. We will see a sprinkle of Top 30 players throughout the tournaments from now unitl January when the purses and fields heat right up. 

    Defending champ Max Homa returns to the Napa Valley and Silverado GC, notably one of the shorter, friendlier places on tour to ease back into the season. Par 72 course described as a driver/wedge course. 

    When assessing the field, there were no stand out course metrics that favoured any one metric. Essentially, a consistent, all round game is required. Generally this means keep the ball on the fairway off the tee, have a good approach game and hit the putts and you will score well. Easy game.

    In saying that, being one of the freindlier places on tour, the rough isn't as penal as it could be and with the game of these guys wont be too much of a factor if miss slightly left or right. Also when assessing, the tournamnet has been played for many a year, previously known as the Safeway Open. 

    With that the database has spat out 4 players outright to start the year off. Ive relied heavily on recent form, history, off the tee metrics and approach play. I feel that with these stats combined, a positive in these areas will see them in contention on Sunday coming down the stretch.

    Max Homa $17 - Favourite. At $17 its rare to see a favorite this long, such is the strength of field here. He comes off his best season ever, winning twice (won Fortinet last year) and place 5th in the Tour Championship. Can continue the trend of back to back and defending winners and to me seems a good way to start the year. He has the Presidents Cup next week and has his first child arriving in the next 8 weeks. He is on a high both professionally and personally and that bodes well for a relaxed and consistent game. 

    Taylor Pendrith $26 - Rated in the odds as the second best Canadian in the field, he in my opinion is number 1 here. His recent game is excellent, coming off a rib injury last season, he has gone from strength to strength since and finished last year at the BMW with an 8th placing. Rates well in off the tee and approach play and has gained on most ocassions across the board since the injury. Rated 11th overall in distance here which is important for his OTT game. He can figure early in the season. 

    Cam Davis $36 - The new "Aussie Cam". He is the prototype for the modern golfer. Super long off the tee, tall, athletic and almost robotic in his swing. He comes here in consistent Top 20 form. Will be bouyed by being a Captains pick next week in the Presidents Cup. Has an average course history and rates 18th overall across all metrics, significantly though his whole game statistics are positive. He is a safe play in my opinion at a pretty good number.

    Trey Mullinax $67 - Very keen on his chances here. Won in splendid fashion at the Barbasol which got him to the Open Championship, where he performed admirably and finished off the season extremely well with a 5th at the Fedex and 12th at the BMW. His recent history is good, his course history is horrible. But he is a different player in the last 3 months, whether it be a change in his game or just a hot streak. Rates 7th overall in strokes gained metrics and 5th in distance, at $67 is a solid play for Trey.

    The customary 30 units is what I am playing and will play throughout the year. Last year I chopped and changed a bit with my unit plays and while my heavier plays paid off at the majors, the smaller plays in the lesser tournaments proved costly on ocassion. So consitent unit plays is my way to go this season along with only outright bet types.

    At the above prices from TabTouch enhanced

    Homa 12.606 units
    Pendrith 8.242 units
    Davis 5.953 units
    Mullinax 3.199 units

    30 units out for 214.33 return on any winner.

    Good luck for this week and the year!

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  • detonatordetonator    4,368 posts
    Will be following your fortune as normal Bomber.
    Always a good read on your form analysis.
    I will probably put the toe back in the water myself after the Footy Season.
    Still smarting from a couple of my near misses in the golf last season.
    Good luck this week.:-B

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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Mullinax and Davis have missed the cut :-q

    Pendrith is 9 shots back and made the cut by 1 :-<

    Homa lead at -12 and is playing beautiful golf :x

    Looks like it's a Homa sweat for the weekend
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Oh wow, do yourself a favour and watch the last 3 holes of the Fortinet, with the mind set you need Homa to win.

    You won't be disappointed
  • detonatordetonator    4,368 posts
    Followed the last hole on the PGA website. Stroke by stroke. Unbelievable result. Bet you couldn't believe your luck Bomber.
    I would of been on Willet if I had a bet because that's the sort of "freak bad luck" that I am destined to cop.
    Came out of the shower to see Willet had won and OMG. Can't wait to watch the highlights.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    What a sweat for the first event of the season. 

    After 9 holes, Homa was 3 off the lead and just going along. Not much was Happeneing. A couple of quick birdies and he was back in the mix, thanks to Lower faultering with a couple of bogies of his own. In the back ground, Willett was chipping away.

    Coming to 16, Willet has a one shot lead going into the par 5. Both players par the hole with Homa havng the best chance to birdie. 

    On 17, Homa misses another 12 footer for birdie and Willet drains a 10 footer for Par after pushing his first putt way past. 

    On 18 is where it all happens. Willet leads by 1 and needs at worst Par to playoff and birdie to put it beyond doubt. 

    Willet drives right while Homa goes dead centre. Small advantage Homa.

    Willet hits a beauty of a 3 wood from the rough to be 60 yards from the pin. Homa launches a 3 wood to the greenside bunker. Advantage Willet

    Willet sticks his 3rd to 3 feet while Homa duffs one out of the bunker to the front of the green in a large valley. Its game over Willet.

    Homa steps up and CHIPS IN for birdie. Unbeleivable scenes to force Willet to get the win by "tapping in" his 3 footer.

    Willet steps over the putt for the win. Breathes. Putts confidently to the middle of the hole and the ball breaks ever so slightly left to catch the lip and slingshot 5 feet feet the hole. 

    Willet cant beleive it, but then goes into game mode after being lighthearted most of the day. 

    He takes unusually longer looking and being over the putt. Again, he confidently strikes the ball and again it veers left and catches the lip again to give Homa an unprecedented defence win of the Fortniet Championship.

    Willet traded as little as 1.01 in live play and before the CHIP IN, Homa traded as much as 1000-1 on betfair, matched!

    It was one of the strangest last holes and meltdowns I have ever seen.

    And I am glad to be on the right side of history! Tournament #1 2022/2023 in the books and we are out to a big start, cashing 214.33 units from a 30 unit outlay

    This week +184.33 units

    Overall +184.33 units

    This week sees the one sided Presidents Cup being contested at Quaill Hollow, where the USA are expected to dominate the Internationals. 

    But where theres golf, there is opportunity. More later in the week!
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    Makes my 2/2 on the NFL this morning seem fairly insignificant lol

    Well done Bomber.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Im hoping the President's Cup isn't a complete whitewash and am hoping for some competition from the International team. They have been given no hope, but match play and team events can throw up surprising outcomes.

    In saying that, I've only had a small bet on the event.

    Highest winning score of the week 4 and 3

    5 units at $21. Collect 105 unit return

    This week -5 units

    Overall +179.33 with 5 alive.

    Good viewing
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Dead after the first match with Xander and Cantlay trouncing Hideki and Scott 6 and 5!
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    A little unlucky in the Presidents Cup betting, with 6/5 being the best winning score straight up and then a host of 4 and 3 results to follow!

    This week is back on the PGA Tour at the Sanderson Farms Championship.

    Preview soon
  • tonytony    2,384 posts
    I see your girl Thitkul won at the weekend

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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Ha yes!

    I resisted to "brag" about it here but I was looking through the fields on Wednesday night and on a whim decided to put a $50 on her for interest (paying $23). She played well the previous week and if not for one "avearge" round she woud have contended that week. 

    Could not believe her second round of 61 and so set the alarm and watched the last few holes and playoff. When Kang chipped in at the last for eagle I thought she was done, shes nailed a 20 footer for birdie on 17 then played safe on 18 for a par on the par 5. Thankfully she got the job done.

    Safe to say she is a $50 auto bet per week for me on the side. This week she backs up in the Volunteers of America Classic and is again $15. Wortgh a shot given her form and confidence. She is an absolute putting machine.

    She now reaches #4 in the world. 

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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    edited September 2022

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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Alrighty then. Week 2 of the PGA tour circuit brings us to the Sanderson Farms Championship at the Jackson Country Clubin Jackson, Mississippi. Last years winner Sam Burns returns "second up" after a successful Presidents Cup week, where he played well without scoring heavily for the team.

    The course is a longish 7460 yard course at par 72, that leans to players that are good putters (ranked 4/43) and approach play (11/43). An overall strokes gained ranking of 11/43 means that players that can gain in most, if not all areas are favoured. This will be a low scoring week, typically the course managers over water the place to create softer, low scoring conditions. Lets predict that -19 will be the winning score this week!

    Interesting to note, while emphasis on putting plays a big role here, last years winner Burns won the tournamnt LOSING strokes on the green to the field. This is a rare feat, only Jordan Spieth was able to do that last year as well at RBC Heritage. So, putting may not be the be all and end all.....

    In saying that, my analysis has thrown up a variety of blokes, 8 in fact. Such is the wideness of the fields at the moment, it is very possible to get decent returns by playing multiple players. 

    After a lot of back and forth ive settled on the following 8 players for an arbitrage return of $4.84.

    In odds order

    Sam Burns ($11) - Short priced favorite here. If he was coming straight off a break from the tour championship I might have avoided, but he looks to have knocked a bit of rust off last week in the Presidents Cup and I like him second up here and defeding, which is a common theme in the past 12 months. He eats up a large percentage but it is hard to ignore him.

    Denny McCarthy ($23) - As a few of these blokes are, they are shorter than usual given the field strength and time of year. Denny is a notoriously good putter so rates well for somewhere like this where it is required. If he can keep the ball in play off the tee adequatley, I can see him figuring on Sunday.

    Sahith Theegala ($23) - A bit of an enigma and returned to the Fortinet a few weeks back with a great showing T6. He is in the category of guys ready to win/will win this year and last start showed in these fields he is competitive. He rates overall and his current form and energy leaned me to adding him this week.

    Taylor Montgomery ($27) - one of the Korn Ferry graduates who was in the hunt at Fortinet. His price is shortish, again due to field and time of year, but he has a massive upside that cant be ignored. He is the most highly rated golfer in the field for adjusted fit to the course (minimum 8 rounds), rates #2 in putting, #1 in strokes gained total. He has 3 starts on the PGA tour in the last 2 years, a third last start, a T11 at the Farmers and a missed cut at the US Open. Should be in the mix again

    Harris English ($56) - New season and new man after undergoing major surgery last season. He looked as though he was finding IT again in glimpses at the end of last season and backed that up with a bold showing first up at the Fortinet Championship. He rates well acros the board and is at a tasty number. 

    Trey Mullinax ($56) - Going to the well again with Trey after being disappointing at the Fortinet. This was SOLELY due to an ice cold putter and I'm willing to forgive one tournament. He has found the ball striking and rates well in approach. He is on thin ice but worth another shot this week after hopefully spending some time on the greens.

    Davis Thompson ($126) - Another KFT graduate and we head out to the golfers +100-1 or more, these are more hopeful than anything. He rates pretty well overall and was good at the Fortinet with a T9. He gained everywhere last start to pick up 8 shots to the field, most notably though the gains were on the green, off the tee AND ball striking (all over 3 shots to the field). A repeat performance and a bit of luck can see him win.

    Harrison Endycott ($176) - Korn Ferry graduate from Australia who was in the hunt after 3 rounds at the Fortinet. Another one who gained everywhere that tournament, his third round of 65 a standout. At this price you dont need to have much on, but I feel he showed something a few weeks ago and would be absolutely itching to get out there again and score well. 

    30 units out for potential 115.26 returned. 

    This week -30 units

    Overall +149.33 with 30 alive.

    Best of luck

    theduke likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Fairly lack luster start to the Sanderson Farms with Sam Burns carding a -2 to be my best bloke, 4 behind leader Davis Riley.

    Denny sits at -1 with the rest at even or worse.

    Theegala revealed his wisdom teeth are giving him the shots and is playing through the pain. This would have been handy info before the start of play and it again begs the question why there isn't a "injury" report of some description publically acknowledged on most sports.

    Harris English carded a +3 with 6 birdies!.....this was disappointing on face value but if he can get rid of the doubles and triples he should score well in round 2 and get back in it
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    H-BOMBER said:


    Safe to say she is a $50 auto bet per week for me on the side. This week she backs up in the Volunteers of America Classic and is again $15. Worth a shot given her form and confidence. She is an absolute putting machine.

    She now reaches #4 in the world. 



    Sits T2 at -5, 1 shot off the lead.

    In 60 years there have only been 2 instances where a teenager has gone back to back week wins.

    1962 and 2016 (Lydia Ko)
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    With one round to go in the Sanderson Championship, Mark Hubbard leads at -15.

    My blokes are pretty much out of it, but never say never.

    Taylor Montgomery at -9, both Burns and McCarthy sit at -6 and Davis Thompson at -4. You realistically could not give anyone behind Montgomery a chance.

    In saying that, I've lobbed 2.5 units on an old favorite, Garrick Higgo at $15 to win tomorrow. He is 3 back in 3rf spot and hadn't shown anything since his maiden win last season at Congaree. He was $501 pre tournament with good reason, but being now only 3 back with many of the top guys being unknowns, it's a great chance for him

    2.5 units at $15 to return 37.5 units

    Good luck
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    H-BOMBER said:


    Safe to say she is a $50 auto bet per week for me on the side. This week she backs up in the Volunteers of America Classic and is again $15. Worth a shot given her form and confidence. She is an absolute putting machine.

    She now reaches #4 in the world. 



    Sits T2 at -5, 1 shot off the lead.

    In 60 years there have only been 2 instances where a teenager has gone back to back week wins.

    1962 and 2016 (Lydia Ko)




    She semi shat the bed last night shooting +1 for the day. At one stage was +3 and 6 back, now sits 3 back within striking distance. Not sure what happened to her game early but I expect her to bounce back tomorrow and hopefully win again.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Well no joy this week

    My primary selections before round 1 saw the best of them being Taylor Montgomery with a -12 finish, 5 shots behind the eventual playoff guys Mackenzie Hughes and Big Ox Straka. They were never really in it unfortunately after lack luster middle rounds

    My bet before round 4 Garrick Higgo ended up just missing by one shot and finished on -16. He had a great chance on 17 to birdie but it was not to be. He was $501 before the tournament, and with good reason, as he missed 13/22 cuts last season. Good to see him back in form.

    Mackenzie Hughes won the playoff in 2 holes, nailing a 10 foot birdie. He probably felt a little snubbed last week for the Presidents cup and rammed home his worth. It was his first win in 6 years.

    The Shriners starts on Thursday with a host of big names playing.

    Update +144.93 units for the season.

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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Edit +146.87

    #-o
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    The Shriners

    at TPC Summerlin, a course that is 7255 yards and a par 71. Require players to be on song with the putter (12 ranked out of 43) and around the green (17th ranked).

    The data has sapt out 8 names again this week with many of the favorites to the fore. While not ideal, its about working the best strategy to maximise the profit and to cover the bank. Naturally, Cantlay dominates most of the categories and has an unbeleivable record here. Similarly Homa, is in sparkling form and comes of a win and the Presidents Cup. At prices of 7.50 and 21, ive elected to save the 30 unit bank this week

    Cantlay 4.02 units at $7.5
    Homa 1.43 units at $21

    5.45 units out for 30.1 return

    Now that we have covered, here are the other 6 blokes that I have found

    Sunjae Im 10.16 units at $13 
    Tom Kim 5.08 units at $26
    T Montgomery 3.67 units at $36
    Burmester 1.86 units at $71
    Fowler 1.86 units at $71
    NeSmith 1.86 units at $71

    24.5 units out for 132.14 return

    Some old favorites in there (Fowler) along with some recent form poppers. Really like NeSmith here this week and he was backed in from 91 overnight which I missed unfortunately. Sunjae and Tom Kim come out of the presidents cup as does Homa and Cantlay, both are playing well with Sunjae the defending champ. Burmester and Montgomery both played well last week and are riding a form wave. Fowler, well he started the season with a T6 after changing irons, caddy and coach and just may well have turned a corner for the new year. We shall see 

    Good luck

    Season +146.87

    Week -30

    Nett +116.87 with 30 alive

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Round 1 in the books and my Korean boys Sunjae and Tom only 2 back on -6, behind leader Tom Hoge. The boys played beautifully in the benign early conditions and will brave the afternoon wave in round 2

    Next best of mine are my saviours, Homa and Cantlay, both at -4 with solid rounds. Homa played morning while Cantlay played the afternoon, so will switch come round 2.

    My longest roughy NeSmith cards a -3 which could have been better. Glad he is in the morning groups on round 2

    Fowler, Montgomery and Burmester at -1, -1 and E and will need to get their skates on. Fowler was -2 way after 4 holes and then had a double on the 9th to destroy that nine. 2 more birdies and a bogey settled him at -1, 7 back.




    As a side, my girl Thitikul sits 3 back in T4 at -5 after a late charge from the leader on -8. She is sitting pretty after one round.

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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    After 3 rounds have most of my guys in the mix

    Tom Kim and Cantlay tied at the top at -19

    NeSmith 3 back in 3rd with a further 1 shot back to Sunjae at -15

    Come on Tom or NeSmith!
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Tom Kim gets it done again at the Shriners.

    He was rock solid all day long and coming to the last, was tied with Cantlay at -24 with NeSmith on -21

    Cantlay after driving the ball unbelievable all week, takes 3 wood and hooks it into the bush. Tried to chop out, failed, dropped, hit his 4th in the after and then after another penalty drops a 30 foot bomb for a 7, allowing Nesmith to capture T2 with him. Kim safely on for two and two pitted for a 3 stroke win!

    On the mark this week with those 3 and Sunjae also on the mix.

    After 3 tournaments this season already 2 outrights home so looking good early doors

    This week 30 out

    Collects 132.4

    Nett 102.4 units

    Season +219.27 units





    :)>-

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  • detonatordetonator    4,368 posts
    Nice work again Bomber. Off to a flyer this season.
    That data programme of yours is earning its money.
    TBH I haven’t tuned in to the golf as yet but watching you carving it up I doubt it won’t be long before I’m back in the game. :-bd
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    edited October 2022
    H-BOMBER said:

    Tom Kim gets it done again at the Shriners.

    He was rock solid all day long and coming to the last, was tied with Cantlay at -24 with NeSmith on -21

    Cantlay after driving the ball unbelievable all week, takes 3 wood and hooks it into the bush. Tried to chop out, failed, dropped, hit his 4th in the after and then after another penalty drops a 30 foot bomb for a 7, allowing Nesmith to capture T2 with him. Kim safely on for two and two pitted for a 3 stroke win!

    On the mark this week with those 3 and Sunjae also on the mix.

    After 3 tournaments this season already 2 outrights home so looking good early doors

    This week 30 out

    Collects 132.4

    Nett 102.4 units

    Season +219.27 units





    :)>-

    Update incorrect final totals
    Should be

    Season +146.87 (stake already subtracted)

    Collected back nett +102.4

    TOATL SEASON +249.27 units
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    The PGA Tour heads to Japan for the ZOZO Championship and much more sleep friendly time slot for us here in Perth

    Its a great field. The LIV bots will be out in force this week condemning the Tour for its smaller field and no cut event. 

    The event is over 4 x 18 hole rounds, but with no cut. The field is also limited to 78 competitors, which doesnt really make it any easier to find a winner, but we get a fairly horrible market to play with. 

    But I digress, there is a winner to be found.

    Played at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, its a par 70 boasting a tick over 7000 yards. There are only 3 par 5s with 5 x par 3s and 10 par 4s. The par 4s are an equal mix of shorter (under 405 yards) and longer holes. Consistent with other Japanese courses, there are 2 x greens per hole, catering for the seasons and traffic (this makes sooo much sense). Any player that hits an incorrect green will recieve free relief. 

    Last year Hideki streeted the field by 5 shots for a home town victory. This year sees a boosted field with travel restrictions lifted. Should make for a great 4 days

    The data has indicated that driving distance is number 1 in the stats, but this is only based on a few years of data. Similarly, around the green play is rated highly (8) and hence off the tee (related to driving distance). Ive used a combination of Off the tee, around the green and strokes gained total to come up with the following plays

    As per last week, will have a "save" bet portion allocation to my total stake, which seemed to work well last week with Cantlay and Tom Kim fighting it out. A fairly stress free watch when the favorite is playing as they should to cover your bet.

    Saving on

    Xander Schauffele (3.33 units at $9) - rates far and away the best here, have to have a save on him at the price
    Hideki Matsuyama (1.88 units at $16) - Home town hero, while I can be confident at the price given, its a good price to save on given his home and support. 

    To save, 5.21 units out for 30 returned

    Now the "real" outrights

    Sungjae Im (10.41 units at $12) - Has been playing wonderfully well this last 12 months. A few hiccups last week but gained every where and Im willing to go to the well again with him. 

    Tom Kim (7.35 units at $17) - Amazing to still get an alright price about him. A mature head on young shoulders, he has all the game to win here again. He is loving every minute of life on the PGA Tour and its impossible not to cheer for this guy with his enthusiasm, gratitude and A1 game.

    Tyrrell Hatton (4.8 units at $26) - The angry man who has been playing well without winning. He was right up there last start but for a lapse in concentration on day 2. He is easily distracted and gets down on himself but he is due for a big win this season. Every time I back him I say never again and Im sure ill be saying it mid tournmant at some stage. Pretty keen on his chances actually.

    Sepp Straka (2.23 units at $56) - The Big OX has been playing in sparkling form, going doan in a playoff in 2 of his last 3 starts. He rates well throughout and has a 10th to his name in Japan at the Olympic Mens competition where he was leading at one point. The last 3 months he has elevated to one of the better golfers in the world, sitting at #26th in the OWGR. 

    24.79 units here to return 124.92 units

    So all up, 30 units out as per usual

    This week -30

    Season +249.27

    Nett +219.27 (30 alive)

    Best of luck again this week.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,299 posts
    Absolute sick bag watching Fowler tearing it up here.

    As most who follow, I've been on him all last season and first two this season for zero collect.

    He leads by 3 mid way through round 3.

    It might actually break me if he wins. He was $91 pre tournament and I thought it should have been more and didn't include him .
  • detonatordetonator    4,368 posts
    Ouch. Still 18 holes to go but this could be the worst “bad beat” since Martin Keymer. Haha,
    Reckon I told you to cut Rickie loose about 15 tournaments ago. Haha.
    #-o

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  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    Well you guys stopped Fowler I noticed haha.Got done by a shot I think to another nonny in Bradley.

    Still going great guns H, can't win them all.
    I have noticed you have streamlined and dumped the Frl spec bets...a great move I nearly mentioned that last season a few times seem to be a money chewer.
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