3 rounds down in Scotland and it was Tommy Lad Fleetwood with round of the day to finish on -11, only 2 back of leader McIlroy and 1!behind my other pick Tom Kim.
Both Kim and Fleetwood will join Rory in the final grouping tomorrow and hopefully one of them can take the Scottish Open. They tee off at a very friendly 3.57pm.
Fleetwood win +157 units Kim win +50 units
Fowler is 6 back and in the predicted conditions tomorrow he surely couldn't win. Min Woo Lee is at 9 back and is no hope.
Absolutely ripping final round of the Scottish Open this afternoon/evening.
The lead went back and forth early between McIlroy and Tom.Kim, with Fleetwood solid with pars all the front nine. Both Kim and McIlroy stumbled closing out the front nine and it was Hatton and McIntyre making the charge. McIntyre played a near flawless -6 under 64 to go into the clubhouse as leader at -14. This was after one of the greatest shots you'll ever see from the rough, into a 25 mph headwind from 200+ yards. He birdied 18 and was only the second birdie of the day.
Rory had 3 holes.to play, 1 behind McIntyre. After parring 16, he came to the 17th and hit and exquisite iron shot right of the hole and it curled around to 8 feet. He then stepped up and knocked that in, needing birdie on the last hole to win the tournament im regulation.
Nobody except Scheffler had birdied both 17 and 18 in the round all week. There were only 4 birdies all day at 17 and only 2 at 18.
Playing into an even stronger wind now at the last, Rory blasts a drive and just misses the fairway bunker. The stage is set. He has 205 to the hole with a very strong head wind. He has 4 iron in hand. Addresses the ball. Comes off it and clubs up to a 2 iron to make sure he gets it there. He addresses and swings. It is a low cutting stinger that lands as soft as a butterfly on the green and rolls up to about 10 feet away from the cup, equalling the heroics of McIntyre earlier.
After Kim and Fleetwood play out, Rory finally gets to putt. He steps in, hits the putt. It moves towards the hole and Rory slumps a little bit miraculously the ball stays it's like snd stops in for an unbelievable third birdie on 18 for the day to clinch the 2023 Scottish Open.
Fleetwood and Kim both stumbled coming in to finish at -9. Scheffler.once again just had nothing drop for him on the greens and still he finished T3 again! I swear he will win by 12 shots one day when they start to drop.
So no collect this week as we head to Hoylake at Royal Liverpool for the Open Championship. Another massive week of golf coming up with a lot of the LIV boys joining the party. Cam Smith returns to defend his Open Championship of 2022 win. Rory is a warm favorite at around 7.50, with Scheffler at 10 and Rahm and Smith both at around $12.
All the big dogs assemble for the final major of the season. Played at Royal Liverpool Hoylake this year for the 14th time in Open history, was last won by Rory in 2014 and Tiger in 2006.
Statistically, you need an elite off the tee game, both accuracy and distance. There is internal out of bounds on 3 holes with the most significant on hole 18, a mere 3 yards off the fairway. Should make for an interesting Sunday. Oh yeah, as with links golf, the bunkers are a nightmare!!
I'm backing 7 guys for a return of $3.52.
Scheffler 8.5 Cam Smith 19 Brooks Koepka 23 Dustin Johnson 36 Wyndham Clarke 51 Bryson Dechambeau 67 Min Woo Lee 76
Smith the only one of these guys not elite off the tee, but or course the short game is elite as last year proved. It's a hot field and a very tee time friendly tournament for us here in WA.
Round one in the books at the Open Championship and there are some regulars and a few suprises
Leading the way is amatuer Christo Lamprecht (insert Conor McGregor "who the fook is that guy" gif), Emiliano Grillo and the King of England, Tommy Fleetwood. All guys at 5 under 66 for the day which they all had there ups and downs but were able to keep it together. There were a total of 31 guys under par today with the scroring average at just over 2 shots over par. and today will be the best conditions they will get!
Lurking for my ar Wyndham c;larke (-3), Brooks (-1) and Scheffler (-1). Alls played solidy and Brooks salvaged his round on the back nie after being +2 early on.
Min Woo Lee solid at Even par, Cam smith at +1 and the other two Liv blokes, DJ and Vryson both shot +3.
The Cut is looking like it will be over parmaybe +1 or Even. The weather is expected to get progressivley worse, which will make for volatile scoring.
Notably, your round can be destroyed in the blink of an eye, which is what happendd to a few guys. Niemann was 2-2, finished +7. Forler was -2 and had an 8 on the last hole. Mickleson was two under and finsihed +6. The worst of all was JT, he was already struggling at +7 and got caught in the bunkers at the last hole, taking a nine for an 11 over 82.
If you are going to dive in for a bet, some things to consider
Nobody has won the Open from more than 5 back in the last 23 years. At this stage, jumping on Carke ($16) and Brooks ($18) might be a smart play.
at Barracuda, all my guys are a fair way back from leader Sul Yu Noh at +23, who had an opening round of 62.
The stableford scoring is a little misleading as there are points awarded for what you shoot on each hole. My best are Jaeger and Hubbard at +8. Effectively this is 7 shots back from the leader as a Birdie is worth +2 points. Par is no points, a bogey is -1 and double bogey is -3. An eagle is worth +5 points so a few of them and youll be flying.
So essentially, it encourages agrresive play, hence the volatility.
Not much interest in this tournamnet exccept the score updates in the morning. We live in hope, but im not holding my breath with this one
The Open Championship was won by Brian Harman at upwards of 150-1. The plucky left hander had a stellar first 36 holes to lead by 6 shots after day 2 and he was solid over the weekend to keep that lead and finish at a record 13 under par and finish 6 shots clear of Rahm, Day, Straka and Tom Kim.
My best finisher was suprisingly Scheffler in the end at Even par. Everyone stumbled at least one day and I was never in the hunt.
It was a true test of links golf and the weather really hammered them on Day 4. Harman was absolutely rock solid to just keep hitting fairways and most notably, was 59/60 inside 10 feet for the week! Thats how you win a golf tournmant, faiways and putts!
Back in the US, Bhatia won the Barracuda for me in very suprising fashion. He was just thereabouts after the first two days and was quite a way back from the leaders due to the nature of the scoring system. he had a stellar Saturday and was unbeleivably right back in it being 3 points off and in 3rd position. I tuned in with 4 holes to go and he was still 5 points behind leader Patrick Rodgers. Bhatia managed to birdie two of the last 4 holes to get to 40 points while rodgers played the last 4 holes in one over to get back to 40 and be in a playoff.
The playoff lasted one hole. Both Bhatia nd Rodgers blasted their drives down the centre but it was Rodgers who was ultra unlucky and found an old divot. He chunked his second shot short while Bhatia put his approach to 8 feet. Rodgers failed to get up and down and akshay 2 putted for his first PGA tour win and put 54.8 units back into my pocket!
JT Poston 5 back in second spot behind Lee Hodges. He needs a fast start and Hodges to drop a few early. With all the water on the course it's possible.
Also need Eric Cole Top 20
In the Senior Open Championship, Harrington is in the final group only 1 back. There are amazingly no players under par after three rounds, Alex Cjeka leads at Par with Harrington at +1. His rounds have been very sporadic with plenty of double bogies and eagles. Very tough conditions. Hoping he can bring it home tonight
Absolute frustration with the results overnight in both the PGA event and the Senior Open
In the PGA, Poston started 5 back. He got to 3 back with one hole to play and went the hail mary and fell short, finishing second 7 shots behind Lee Hodges in the end. Poston needed Eagle to at least challenge Hodges who laid up, but Poston hit the rocks and went into the drink. He took 8. It wouldnt have mattered as Hodges from 119 yards put one to about a foot to claim the 3M championship in emphatic fashion.
Eeric Cole was tracking nocley for a top 20, but as usual, shat the bed with 5 holes to play and finsihed 2 shots out of the top 20, dropping 3 shots on the way in. FML
Over in Wales, it was absolute heartbreak for Harrington backers.
Starting the day 1 back of Alex Cjeka, Padraig started bogey, par, bogey, double bogey in what I would describe as the wrost golf playing condiotions yo will get for a tour event. It was carnage out thee and while Harrington was dropping shots left right and centre, everyone else was as well. Leader Cjeka was having problems of his own. Coming to the last hole Harrington was still 1 shot back of Cjeka at +5 for the tournamnt. Yes, you read that right, the leader was at +5.
Padraig hits the green in 2. Cjeka has issues and taps in for par. Padriag to win with an eagkle shaves the lip agonisingly close and taps in for birdie. Playoff.
1st playoff hole is halved with birdies. Come the second playoff hole, both are greenside for 2. Cjeka plays up to about a metre and has that for birdie. Harrington has a pretty straight forward chip but has a terrible lie. He chunks the **** out of it and the ball goes about 1 metre. He then plays up again and sticks it close but taps in for a 5. Its left for Cjeka in the howling wind and rain to nail the put and put a stake through Padraig and mines heart.
So after all that, no sleep, no collect.
We move to the last tournamnent of the season at the Wyndham Champioship. Its been a grind this year and look forward to a break soon!
Sitting OK after round 1 in the books. Henley cards a 62 overnight to sit at -8 to be the leader of the pack. My blokes are as follows
Scott and Poston at -5 Todd and Horshal at -3 Cole at -1 Denny +1 Bhatia +2 Hossler +7
Looks like it will be only a few that make it through , projecting that the cut will be at -2 or -3.Henley is now 2.50 favorite after opening at $19 as the favorite. Poisonly short now!
Good rounds overnight by Billy Horshal and Brendan Todd, who sit 1 and 2 shots behind Henley at the half way mark. JT Poston sits at -7 after an up and down day. Eric Cole played well and sits at -6. Poor old Adam Scott played a +1 round to now sit at -4.
Well a great third round by Billy Horshal puts him T1 with Lucas Glover at -18, 1 shot ahead of Henley and 3 ahead of Ben An.
Horshal has enjoyed a revival over the last 6 weeks after capitulating to an 80 at the Memorial and just breaking down during an interview about the state of his game. He has worked hard, changed his swing this year but importantly, about 6 weeks ago, he had realised that the lie angle he was playing has been wrong by about 2 degrees and unfortunately it was only recently picked up. He has had his clubs bent correctly and this has coincided with a change in form. Doesn't sound like much but for these blokes every little bit makes a difference.
Have Billy at 74-1 for a collect of 154 units. This would be a sensational way to end the regular season.
Ah very frustrating overnight. Billy Horshal had a day where nothing dropped for him and he plodded to a +2 round to finish at -16, 4 shots behind winner Lucas Glover who was steady throughout. The last hour or so was very entertaining viewing, lots of bad breaks for the leaders and some excitement of the FedEx Cup bubble top 70.
In the end, no collects as we head to the playoffs that start this week for 3 weeks. All the big dogs are in headed by Rahm and Scheffler.
Watched the highlights of this round. The bloke was on fire. He still left a few out there as well!!
He had a bogey on a par 3 and he had a cruel lipout for birdie mid round. For someone to shoot 58 in a professional tournament setup it is amazing. Only the second in history in the US with Jim Furyk
Greenbrier has had a couple.of 59s in its history, that would be Aussie Stuart Appleby in 2010 and Kevin Chappel in 2017.
Amazingly there are only a handful of 59s. Even more amazing that Tiger isn't in the club.
The Womens Open starts tomorrow at Walton Heath in Surrey, England.
This will be a massive test of major golf for the ladies. This course, while not a true links course, plays like one. The betting favorite Hyo Jyo Kim is at $12 after a close finish last week behind winner celine Boutier at $17, who is coming off 2 wins, the Evian Championship (Major) and The Womens Scottish Open.
My pick for this years event is each way Minjee Lee at $21. Followers of her know her capability but it was her performance last week which really got my attention. On the tough links setup, she opened with a round 1 80 and put herself out of contention. From there, she set the course alight in the last 3 rounds with some impeccable ball striking and links play, to finish an amazing 7 shots behind. Sounds like a long way, but she was +8 through 1 round and finished -8 for the week, making up 16 shots in 3 rounds.
Having 5 units each way at the $21 for a collect of 130 units.
The first round of the playoffs kicks off at TPC Southwind. Last season, it was Zalatoris holding off a gallant Sepp Straka to take his maiden win on the tour before getting injured in the second leg of the playoffs and missing Eastlake.
This year, a total of 70 players head to TPC Southwind, down from 125 in a modified playoffs season. This is the start of a frantic 3 weeks, where this field will be cut to 50 and then 30 to crown the Fedex Cup champion. Jon Rahm leads all comers in the points race, only 176 points ahead of Scheffler, but they are 1000s ahead of their next rivals. Note that winners of the first two legs of the players recive 2000 FEDEX cup points for a win instead of the normal 500, which goes a long way when the handicapping at Eastlake comes around.
As with majors, this has a very sharp field and is a NO CUT EVENT. So we are getting value for money here.
TPC Southwind lends itself to more elite putters and approach play. Its played on Bermuda grass greens and plays a par 70 with notable small greens at around 4300 square feet average.
Trawling through the data Ive come to following conclusions
Scottie Scheffler (7.50)
What else can be said. While his putter is cold and has been for most of the year, the other metrics dont lie. He is 59/70 in this field in putting. However in other metrics as follows
SG Total 1st
Greens in regulation 1st
Around the green 2nd
Approach 1st
Off the tee 1st
For a course that requires accuarcy to the green and hitting them in regularity, the above speaks for itself. On Bermuda greens, Scheffler is a 0 putter, meaning that he neither gains or loses strokes to the field on average. This is really his only shining light on the flat surface, and if everything else goes as usual, he should be winning by a space. To add to all this, an analysis of all players in the field off a certain amount of time off shows that Scheffler, who is coming off 21 days, plays an average of 4 shots better than his baseline when having the 21 day break. Could be a space job. Could be heartbreaking as usual. He is 7.50 favorite for a reason and in a reduced field of 70 with no cut, this to me actually represents value.
Lucas Glover (101)
This may look like a recency bias play, but Glover has been low key trending over the past 2 months, culminating in success last week at the Wyndham Championship. Glover has notoriously been a horrible putter, well, as bad as you can be as a seasoned 20 year professional. This all changed when he brought in the broomstick putter, and it has paid hefty dividends for him. His metrics read well. He is rated 3rd overall in statitics at TPC Southwind, coming a close up 3rd last season in this event. He is 3rd overall in accuracy this season. He is 2nd in greens in regulation this season. Bermuda grass is by far his best putting surface. With all this, the $101 looks enticing for a last start winner, whose putter is on fire and can hit more greens in regulation than anyone except for Lord Scheffler. He launched into 49th place in the Fedex standing after his win last week, which is significant as the Top 50 in the fedex standings with be eligible for everything next year in the new schedules released days ago. his resurgence is a wonderful story and he could be this years Sepp Straka in Memphis.
A few others were unlucky to miss out, but their prices were horrible. Notable, Hatton was on the list but Ive elcted to have him only in a same tournament multi.
So at the prices of 7.50 and 101, we get to play Glover and only sacrifice 50c of Schefflers price
Therefore, playing 20 units as follows (Tabtouch)
18.62 Units scheffler at $7.50
1.38 units Glover at $101
To collect 139.63
Playing 2.5 units at 12.11 the following same tournament multi (Ladbrokes)
Scheffler Top 5
Hatton Top 20
Glover Top 20
to collect 30.28 units
Overall 22.5 units here
ADDITIONAL multi
Scheffler 7.5 (Fedex St Jude) with Minjee Lee at 17 (Womens Open Championship).
Minjee with an opening round of 72 which had a bit of everything. 4 birdies, 2 bogeys, a double and 11 pars. She currently sits only 2 back at just over the half way mark of round 1.
Comments
Both Kim and Fleetwood will join Rory in the final grouping tomorrow and hopefully one of them can take the Scottish Open. They tee off at a very friendly 3.57pm.
Fleetwood win +157 units
Kim win +50 units
Fowler is 6 back and in the predicted conditions tomorrow he surely couldn't win. Min Woo Lee is at 9 back and is no hope.
Missed the cut by two shots 8-|
The lead went back and forth early between McIlroy and Tom.Kim, with Fleetwood solid with pars all the front nine. Both Kim and McIlroy stumbled closing out the front nine and it was Hatton and McIntyre making the charge. McIntyre played a near flawless -6 under 64 to go into the clubhouse as leader at -14. This was after one of the greatest shots you'll ever see from the rough, into a 25 mph headwind from 200+ yards. He birdied 18 and was only the second birdie of the day.
Rory had 3 holes.to play, 1 behind McIntyre. After parring 16, he came to the 17th and hit and exquisite iron shot right of the hole and it curled around to 8 feet. He then stepped up and knocked that in, needing birdie on the last hole to win the tournament im regulation.
Nobody except Scheffler had birdied both 17 and 18 in the round all week. There were only 4 birdies all day at 17 and only 2 at 18.
Playing into an even stronger wind now at the last, Rory blasts a drive and just misses the fairway bunker. The stage is set. He has 205 to the hole with a very strong head wind. He has 4 iron in hand. Addresses the ball. Comes off it and clubs up to a 2 iron to make sure he gets it there. He addresses and swings. It is a low cutting stinger that lands as soft as a butterfly on the green and rolls up to about 10 feet away from the cup, equalling the heroics of McIntyre earlier.
After Kim and Fleetwood play out, Rory finally gets to putt. He steps in, hits the putt. It moves towards the hole and Rory slumps a little bit miraculously the ball stays it's like snd stops in for an unbelievable third birdie on 18 for the day to clinch the 2023 Scottish Open.
Fleetwood and Kim both stumbled coming in to finish at -9. Scheffler.once again just had nothing drop for him on the greens and still he finished T3 again! I swear he will win by 12 shots one day when they start to drop.
So no collect this week as we head to Hoylake at Royal Liverpool for the Open Championship. Another massive week of golf coming up with a lot of the LIV boys joining the party. Cam Smith returns to defend his Open Championship of 2022 win. Rory is a warm favorite at around 7.50, with Scheffler at 10 and Rahm and Smith both at around $12.
More soon!
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All the big dogs assemble for the final major of the season. Played at Royal Liverpool Hoylake this year for the 14th time in Open history, was last won by Rory in 2014 and Tiger in 2006.
Statistically, you need an elite off the tee game, both accuracy and distance. There is internal out of bounds on 3 holes with the most significant on hole 18, a mere 3 yards off the fairway. Should make for an interesting Sunday. Oh yeah, as with links golf, the bunkers are a nightmare!!
I'm backing 7 guys for a return of $3.52.
Scheffler 8.5
Cam Smith 19
Brooks Koepka 23
Dustin Johnson 36
Wyndham Clarke 51
Bryson Dechambeau 67
Min Woo Lee 76
Smith the only one of these guys not elite off the tee, but or course the short game is elite as last year proved. It's a hot field and a very tee time friendly tournament for us here in WA.
40 units out here for a return of 140.8 return
GL
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This is a weird tournament with modified stableford scoring.
Going with 4 blokes here for 10 units to collect 54.5 return
Jaeger 15
Pendrith 21
Hubbard 23
Bhatia 34
Probably won't watch much of this one unless one of these guys are in contention.
Overall this week, 50 units out. Big week and lots of golf to watch at a friendly time slot!
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The stableford scoring is a little misleading as there are points awarded for what you shoot on each hole. My best are Jaeger and Hubbard at +8. Effectively this is 7 shots back from the leader as a Birdie is worth +2 points. Par is no points, a bogey is -1 and double bogey is -3. An eagle is worth +5 points so a few of them and youll be flying.
So essentially, it encourages agrresive play, hence the volatility.
Not much interest in this tournamnet exccept the score updates in the morning. We live in hope, but im not holding my breath with this one
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The Open Championship was won by Brian Harman at upwards of 150-1. The plucky left hander had a stellar first 36 holes to lead by 6 shots after day 2 and he was solid over the weekend to keep that lead and finish at a record 13 under par and finish 6 shots clear of Rahm, Day, Straka and Tom Kim.
My best finisher was suprisingly Scheffler in the end at Even par. Everyone stumbled at least one day and I was never in the hunt.
It was a true test of links golf and the weather really hammered them on Day 4. Harman was absolutely rock solid to just keep hitting fairways and most notably, was 59/60 inside 10 feet for the week! Thats how you win a golf tournmant, faiways and putts!
Back in the US, Bhatia won the Barracuda for me in very suprising fashion. He was just thereabouts after the first two days and was quite a way back from the leaders due to the nature of the scoring system. he had a stellar Saturday and was unbeleivably right back in it being 3 points off and in 3rd position. I tuned in with 4 holes to go and he was still 5 points behind leader Patrick Rodgers. Bhatia managed to birdie two of the last 4 holes to get to 40 points while rodgers played the last 4 holes in one over to get back to 40 and be in a playoff.
The playoff lasted one hole. Both Bhatia nd Rodgers blasted their drives down the centre but it was Rodgers who was ultra unlucky and found an old divot. He chunked his second shot short while Bhatia put his approach to 8 feet. Rodgers failed to get up and down and akshay 2 putted for his first PGA tour win and put 54.8 units back into my pocket!
This week the players are heading to Minnesota for the 3M Open.
A course that has a lot of water, driving the ball well will hold you in good stead to be there come Sunday.
I'm playing the filling players at these noted odds for 25 units
Sungjae Im 17
Grillo 26
Straka 29
JT Poston 51
Eric Cole 61
25 out for 142.25 return
Will also play the same blokes for first round leader. 2 units out for 23.8 return
Total out this week 27 units.
Good luck!
I've had a 2.5 units each way bet on In Gee Chun at $81 which pays top 6.
The Seniors are still in the UK for the Senior British Open Championship
Had a good crack at Padraig Harrington, 15 units at 3.70. He looks very hard to beat after last week's showing at Hoylake.
Best of luck!
JT Poston 5 back in second spot behind Lee Hodges. He needs a fast start and Hodges to drop a few early. With all the water on the course it's possible.
Also need Eric Cole Top 20
In the Senior Open Championship, Harrington is in the final group only 1 back. There are amazingly no players under par after three rounds, Alex Cjeka leads at Par with Harrington at +1. His rounds have been very sporadic with plenty of double bogies and eagles. Very tough conditions. Hoping he can bring it home tonight
My "short" list
Poston
Scott
Bhatia
Todd
Hossler
Cole
Denny Macarthy
Billy Horshal
Pays about $6.20 of one of these blokes salie. 25 units out this week
Scott and Poston at -5
Todd and Horshal at -3
Cole at -1
Denny +1
Bhatia +2
Hossler +7
Looks like it will be only a few that make it through , projecting that the cut will be at -2 or -3.Henley is now 2.50 favorite after opening at $19 as the favorite. Poisonly short now!
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They all have to catch Henley.
Horshal has enjoyed a revival over the last 6 weeks after capitulating to an 80 at the Memorial and just breaking down during an interview about the state of his game. He has worked hard, changed his swing this year but importantly, about 6 weeks ago, he had realised that the lie angle he was playing has been wrong by about 2 degrees and unfortunately it was only recently picked up. He has had his clubs bent correctly and this has coincided with a change in form. Doesn't sound like much but for these blokes every little bit makes a difference.
Have Billy at 74-1 for a collect of 154 units. This would be a sensational way to end the regular season.
Update year +175.2 units
25 alive overnight for 154.8 return.
In the end, no collects as we head to the playoffs that start this week for 3 weeks. All the big dogs are in headed by Rahm and Scheffler.
More soon!
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Watched the highlights of this round. The bloke was on fire. He still left a few out there as well!!
He had a bogey on a par 3 and he had a cruel lipout for birdie mid round. For someone to shoot 58 in a professional tournament setup it is amazing. Only the second in history in the US with Jim Furyk
Greenbrier has had a couple.of 59s in its history, that would be Aussie Stuart Appleby in 2010 and Kevin Chappel in 2017.
Amazingly there are only a handful of 59s. Even more amazing that Tiger isn't in the club.
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