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PGA Tour 2022/2023 Season

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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,339 posts
    edited November 2022
    Finau absolutely kills them in Houston. After 9 holes he was up by 8 shots. While he had a few bogies coming in, it was plain sailing to win by 4 shots in the end.

    Ofcourse, I was on the week before and he missed the cut. Interestingly he actually made the cut that week, but was assessed a two stroke penalty after the round to put him under the cut line by a shot. He had played a great second round as well after playing average on round 1.

    Fast forward one week and he streets them. Very disappointed that I didn't take this into account more heavily and missed this. Instead I backed Hideki who is in the sack book FOREVER after another withdrawal.

    Anyway, a loss is a loss and am hitting a bit of a dry spell after a hot start.

    Finau tees it up again this week at the RSM classic and is 8.50 favorite in early markets. He is going to a course that relies heavily on driving accuracy. He literally missed 3 fairways all week in Houston. Safe to say it might be a one out all in bet this week on "Hunky Tony". We shall see what the numbers show in the morning

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  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    edited November 2022
    Any ideas on whats going on with Scotty Bomber?

    Was up and down again this week, i actually had a bonus bet on him at the $9 when day 2 had been delayed.He still had 5 left to play in his 2nd round and was going great and -5 for that incomplete round and overall(after a scrubby 1st round even par 70)was at the same mark, 6 off the pace iirc.
    Went birdie on his resumption hole to go -6 from there shot just even par overall for his next 40 holes including on day 3 I estimate he went +3 for those 23 holes he played that day...fair to say the blokes going pretty average.
    Haven't been watching so I could only guess is his driving some of the problem, known to spray it off the tee when not at his best?
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,339 posts
    edited November 2022
    The problem for Scheffler at the moment is the putter. Is consistently losing strokes to the field on the greens, coupled with his high ceiling from last season and on face value he is disappointing and more importantly, starting way under the odds. 

    This season, he is gaining everywhere but the green, losing nearly a stroke per roudn to the field. I wont post them here, but if you break down his putts from 3 fee to 25 feet, it doesnt reveal a whole lot on first inspection. But if you bracket these distances THIS SEASON you get the following

    4-8 feet; 30 attempts for 20 successful. Ranked 130th
    INSIDE 10 feet; 155 attempts for 132 successful. Ranked 132nd

    But this isnt the problem, his percentage under 10 feet is at 85%. Last season he went at 87% for the same stance range (under 10 feet).

    The following is the problem

    10-15 feet; 17 attempts for 3 successful. Ranked 178th
    15-20 feet; 16 attempts for 3 successful. Ranked 64th.
    20-25 feet; 17 attempts for 0 successful.

    Bracketting these distances shows that overall this season, he is 50 attempts from 10-25 feet with only 6 putts made. That is a terrible (for him!) 12% success rate. 

    LAST SEASON he was going at around 27% in this range for the entire year. 15% better in terms of putts in the 10-25 feet range.

    Diving deeper, lets look at Greens in regulation and approach. 

    Last season, he was number 1 Greens in regulation at 73%. 

    This season thus far, he is at 73% again, BUT, he is ranked 24th. This says that either fields are getting better and his stats last season doesnt cut the mustard, OR, he is missing more putts on the greens. The latter is true as above. 

    Also, last season, he was 4th overall in SG Approach (0.8). He is currently at 60th this season (0.3). This indicates that while he is hitting the same amount of greens in regulation, his approach is lacking, therefore finishing further from the hole in regulation. Because of this then,  and what I indicated above with the putter, he was making the 10-25 footers last season and not this year. 

    We are talking about the number 2 guy in the world, but the numbers seems indicative of more 10-25 footers needing to be holed OR he needs to elevate his approach game to last years standards, which should translate to less 10-25 footers needing to be holed.

    I think that makes sense?



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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,339 posts
    edited November 2022
    Well the last regular event for 2022 is upon us. I dont know about you, but fatigue is setting in. I guess when you aren't winning its a grind and the last month or so has been just that with some close misses.

    Anyway, the RSM clasic sees Finau tee it up again after demoralising the field last week wire to wire. The Sea Island Course (seaside) will be the main course in effect, playing all 4 rounds with the Plantation course ebing used in rotation on rounds 1 and 2.

    Statistically, Driving Accuracy is the go here and literally nothing else. The fairways are generous on this par 70 course, hence the skewed metrics towards DA. But, if you were to miss these large inviting fairways, there is a heap of trouble in the form of bush and water.

    Hard to not look past Big Tony this week after what he has done in the last few weeks. He is striping it and was #1 off the tee last week in Houston and ha becaoime one of the best players in the world. Keep him on the radar for the majors, specifically the US Open and PGA.

    So lets not beat around the bush, as they say. Get straight into it :))

    Playing the 30 units this week as usual. I am changing it up by having a good crack at Finau outright and saving on 11, yes 11 other guys.

    After all, the aim here is to make $$$ and protect the bank. I feel this might be a great play this week


    Enhanced Win Only: Finau, Tony (Winner) 23 units @ 9.00

    Enhanced Win Only: Day, Jason (Winner) 1.04 units @ 29.00

    Enhanced Win Only: Power, Seamus (Winner) 1.04 units @ 29.00

    Enhanced Win Only: Hoge, Tom (Winner) 0.971 units @ 31.00

    Enhanced Win Only: Rose, Justin (Winner) 0.836 units @ 36.00

    Enhanced Win Only: McCarthy, Denny (Winner) 0.836 units @ 36.00

    Enhanced Win Only: NeSmith, Matthew (Winner) 0.590 units @ 51.00

    Enhanced Win Only: Theegala, Sahith (Winner) 0.54 units @ 56.00

    Enhanced Win Only: English, Harris (Winner) 0.493 units @ 61.00

    Enhanced Win Only: Mullinax, Trey (Winner) 0.298 units @ 101.0

    Enhanced Win Only: Straka, Sepp (Winner) 0.239 units @ 126.0

    Enhanced Win Only: Alexander, Tyson (Winner) 0.1 units @ 301.0


    FINAU win collect 207.34 units

    ANY of the other 11 win collect 30.01 units.


    Update PGA Tour +148.88

    This week -30

    Overal +118.88 (30 alive)



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  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    Yep Bomber that all does make sense as I said hadn't looked at why, thought maybe driver/tee related.Has had some glimpses, ie the 9 under which saved my multi for top 10 two weeks ago..just not getting it done regularly, how's his temperament been I wonder.

    Funny how form turns around in golf, hard sport to maintain the rage with a few key areas that need to gel.

    Having a big go at Finau wow! Good luck man.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,339 posts
    Finau WD, which was semi to be expected. Money back so will let the other 11 ride as is.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,339 posts
    6 blokes in the hunt at -4 behind the leader at -8 early days in the RSM Classic. Denny, Sahith, Alexander, Rose, Power and English all decent rounds. 

    Straka at -1

    NeSmith Even Par

    Hoge finished +1 and day finished +4. They are sacked forever, especially Jason Day.

    Mullinax also on thin ice, he has WD. He was +5.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,339 posts
    Well another nearly week, close but no cigar.

    Sahith finished 2 back from winner Adam Svensson after a costly double bogey on the par 5 7th. Seamus Power also another good week, but close enough isn't good enough.

    Good time for a break with the official season pausing till the Sentry Tournament of Champions in January.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,339 posts
    Not too much damage with the scratching of big Tony

    30 out but 22.3 returned

    Overall +141.18
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    Blast from the past, am watching Cam Smith in the Pga on Ch 9..have not done so for idk how long.Anyway go Smithy!!

    Just saw Lee duff his tee shot and wedge it into the top of the turf lip of the bunker lol ..and yet he got a free drop wtf.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,339 posts
    I have to say, seeing Cam Smith and the other regulars on tour gracing Australian turf has struck a chord with me. All the LIV crap has disappeared and just live seeing the Aussies play well, especially Smith who we have been starved of since the Open.

    He was $5 before the tournament. I was going to remortgage my house and put it all on but got scared. He won easy in the end by 3 shots.

    I look forward to him starting 2.50 this week, if we are lucky!

    A few.to watch out for

    Ryan Fox - had severe jet lag from all the travel last week. Forgive

    Cam Davis - The Melbourne sandbelt should shot his long game
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,339 posts
    Smith the one to beat again in the Australian Open starting in a few hours. Might be a bet at the 3.50, but not for me.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see Ryan Fox show a bit this week. He is $17 and won't be suffering from major key lag from his travel schedule. Worth a a few sheckles I reckon.
  • detonatordetonator    4,375 posts
    $3.50 Cam Smith a gift. Wants his name on that trophy and is the best player in the world.
    Put in take out job.
    There….I have now jinxed him.
    :D

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  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    edited December 2022
    detonator said:

    $3.50 Cam Smith a gift. Wants his name on that trophy and is the best player in the world.

    Put in take out job.
    There….I have now jinxed him.
    :D



    I've had some joy on a 4 leg group winners soccer multi(well im sure I'm sweet unless Brazil get beat 3 nil by Cameroon and Switzerland win)so should I invest a chunk on Smithy DET? :D

    Funny-ish story i had a couple of insurance bets on Poland overnight as the Bargies were leg 3 and I just thought u never know Messi is stuffing around and they got pumped in Rd 1 etc etc...anyway i pump up the already juicy draw and win prices for Poland by around 24%(because I'm a dh)taking France to draw at least and under 4.5 goals for the match.

    France play mostly a 2nd eleven go down 1-0 but level in the 98th minute I'm like phew at least my savers are alive lol..then the goal gets shitcanned controversially and my tickets are confetti!!
    Thought f this let it ride what will be will be, Bargies got it done no problem haha.

    PS Go you beautiful Aussies how bloody good?! their a tier below the top 20 really as we know  but that winning goal was world class all day and they played really well after the first half hour. 
    =D>
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    Hopefully he finishes a few off the pace today to keep at that sort of price and I'll have a punt tonight.

    Stuff me Peter Lonard is playing and -3 thru 15 used to love watching him play when he was in his prime.
    Some dude has carded a 63 to be clubhouse leader at -7 par 70 course is that the norm??
  • detonatordetonator    4,375 posts
    Exactly. Some dude 63. Put a line thru him. Haha

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  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    Well after round 1 I'm gonna give you both "Jonah credits"..Smithy finished 8 back(already had recorded 3 bogeys and looked right pissed off after the 3rd one on 13)and Fox is a couple of shots worse.

    If disregarding the leader Micheluzzi(a choker for sure)he is one of 50 or 60 guys at E or +1 and only 5 off the front pack.
    Haven't checked his price but would want 8-10 bucks now..is he worth a bet boys?
  • detonatordetonator    4,375 posts
    Get on Cam TS. $8.50 a gift. Put in take out. Early tee off will see him 2 off the the lead at the half way mark.  :-B

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  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,339 posts
    Micheluzzi is no slouch, finished close up last week and won the WA PGA event in Kalgoorlie and few weeks ago. He was $51 pre tournament and same for FRL, actually looked at him and considered it. Unfortunately didn't pull the trigger.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,339 posts
    The Hero World Challenge starts in 3 hours in the Bahamas. A field of 20 will contest this easy course and the expectations are it will be a birdie fest. Keep otim the fairway and you will go low

    I've backed Rahm ($6) and Finau (9.50), spent 25 units for 91.9 units back.

    Also, had 2.5 units (5 total) on Rahm/Finau finishing first and second in any order for 102.5 return

    Total spend this week 30 units . Good luck!
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    Yeh tbh don't know much about him H..tho Kal form vs the no 1 player in the world is a fair stretch but the only reason why I mocked him is the unknown(to me) factor.. that said, 8 strokes is still a decent gap.

    Might have a smaller bet tonite then put more on if he closes in at the end of round 2 like Det reckons...as I would have been happy to take the 3.50 anyway shortened odds within reason wont be a problem.

    Have no idea what Lonard has been up to lately but I reckon he has win this tournamnet before..yonks ago.Be great to see him turn back the clock for the whole 4 days.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    Bullet dodged didn't have a bet, shoots 73 and he will be lucky to make the cut at +2.
  • detonatordetonator    4,375 posts
    You dodged it TS and it got me right between the eyes.
    Only bits of the golf I saw was on the news and it showed Cam hitting out from the trees. Thats my sort of golf.

    :-q

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  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    Its a tough gig mate..I thought more about the body language and saw another clip of him plus comments indicating he was pretty shitty after Rd 1..just felt he was off the boil, there was even a suggestion he tied one on post the Pga win which wouldn't surprise.

    Yeh I got lucky, few extra bucks now to throw on Truly Inspired on Sat, get it back there Det B-)

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  • detonatordetonator    4,375 posts
    Not sure you want me on Truly Inspired TS. I am the "kiss of death"
    =;
  • detonatordetonator    4,375 posts
    See Cam Smith at Moonee Valley tonight. Maybe he should be working on his swing at the driving range.  [-X

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  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    detonator said:

    Not sure you want me on Truly Inspired TS. I am the "kiss of death"

    =;



    So..can I blame you? :P
    That was a pissweak effort imo.
  • detonatordetonator    4,375 posts
    I wasn’t on TS. I agree it looked weak. 
    Might be looking to get my money back which I lost on Cam Smith by backing Min Woo at the end of todays round. Hoping to get $5.00 or am I dreaming ?
    [-O<

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  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    detonator said:

    I wasn’t on TS. I agree it looked weak. 

    Might be looking to get my money back which I lost on Cam Smith by backing Min Woo at the end of todays round. Hoping to get $5.00 or am I dreaming ?
    [-O<


    Yeh i thought weak, never a good look when a cat like Coolth cruises by..I'll watch the replay as I'm usually a bit harsh when I've blown cash lol.

    Their culling the field again to top a 30 plus ties at the end of today right?
    Reckon I might have a squizz later at the leaderboard and place a bet for an interest tomorrow, watch telecast all day get molly the monk drunk as... :D

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  • detonatordetonator    4,375 posts
    That’s what Saturdays are for. Punting and drinking. My favourite day of the week by a country mile. :D

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