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PGA Tour 2022/2023 Season

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  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    You are correct, I must agree.

    When I looked Scott was -8 but now leads outright at -11 crikey..well I can't back him and wouldn't have even at -8 so what to do, the guy running second could drop-out then there is Lee and two others are -6.Because i misread the leaderboard I was going to back one of these guys at 6 unmķ but 5 is maybe too many shots back.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Rahm.amd Finau just plodded this week behind back to back winner Hovland

    This week -30 units

    Overall +111 units
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    With the season pretty much over for the year until the Sentry Tournament of Champions at Kapalua in January, there are still a couple of betting options this week of so inclined.

    No deep dive and no bet suggestions to go towards the years totals

    In the DP World Tour event at the Alfred Dunhill Championships, 5 guys to consider as follows

    Bezedenhoit
    Burmester
    Otagui
    Daffue
    Besselling

    In the PGA tour, the teams go head to head in the QBE shootout. Teams to consider

    Homa/Kisner
    Stricker/Young
    McNealy/Lexi Thompson


    Good luck!


  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    edited December 2022
    Last week had a couple of top 5 placings. Otagui in South Africa finished 2 back in second while Homa and Kisner finished close up 4 behind in 4th.

    This week is the final DP world tour week. One bloke to consider is young irishman Tom McKibben (19yo). He played well last week in South Africa and fronts up again this week in Mauritius. He is $36 for the win and $5 for a top 10. Juicy enough for me to have a stab this week.

    On the flip side, Big Dean the machine Burmester is sacked for mine. He has had enough chances and comes up favorite here at 7.50. No thank you. A win for him would propel him into the top 50 and gets him a start at the Masters next year. Good luck to him but can't have him. He was in contention last week but shat the bed late.


    In the US, it's the PNC championship which sees combos of father/son/mother/daughter take on each other in a scramble event over 2 days. Last year, Team Daly held off a fast finishing Team Woods to take the championship and return to defend. Team Thomas have come up at 3.50 favorites (Justin and his teaching pro father). I'll try for some value. I like the team of Tiger and Charlie, Charlies hormones have kicked in over the last 12 months and instead of the baby faced cherub we saw last year, he is turning into an assassin on the course. Couple that with the GOAT and his genes and well I'll have a play at $7. I'll also have a few sheckles on Team Langer. Bernhard is evergreen and keeps winning on the Champions tOur and couples up with his son, who is a senior at Penn State and is a part of their golf team. They are at $13.

    Good luck!
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Tommy McK 7 shots back in 20th position at -3 at the half way mark. He has had 12 birdies but 9 bogeys! Hopefully he can eliminate the bogeys over the weekend and snatch a top 10 at worst (I've had a fair whack each way at the $36 outright and $5 top 10)

    Big Dean the Machine misses the cut. He has been underwhelming and glad I didn't launch into him.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Oh dear McKibben shoots +4 on the day to put himself right out of contention. The leaders haven't kicked away and a lowish round would have put him right in the mix. Oh well!
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Excitement levels are increasing with the first tournament for the year set to start this week in Hawaii, the traditional opening with the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

    A star studded field of 39 winners headed by the biggest studs of all in Rahm and JT.

    Analysis starts tonight and will post thoughts and bets later in the week.

    Let's have a year!

    detonator likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Well here we are. 

    After a well earned xmas and New year break, most of the big dawgs are back in action around 4 am WST. And it couldnt come any sooner, as i have been absolutely frothing for the Hawaii swing to start

    The Sentry Tournament of Champiosn brings together the winners onf the past 12 months, along with a few oter invites according to the new rules of entry set by the PGA tour. The introduced rules allow a wider selection of players to compete. In saying that, only 39 players will grace the starter of this no cut, 72 hole birdie fest.

    Significantly, they will be going without defending champion Cam Smith, which is a real shame. Unfortunately for golf and fans, the spat between LIV and the Tour has robbed golf fans of the best of the best. They are also going without McIlroy, who has elected to front up for the DP World Tour event that starts next week. Aside from that, the 39 that have turned up are a field of absolute studs to contest now the elevated 20 million dollar event. 

    The Plantation Course at Kapalua plays a touch under 7600 yards and is a Par 73. Based directly on the beautiful Hawaiin Coast, the course can be subject to some unbeleivable scenery and some inversely horrible winds, making this a challenge. In saying this, when the wind doesnt blow, like last year, it makes for some record making scores. give these guys no wind, soft conditions of a break and you will see some fireworks. 

    Lets dive in.

    As you can imagine, when you get all the good players in one place, the stats are going to require a stellar game across the board. Unsurprisingly, the metrics reveal that putting (1), around the green (2), strokes gained total (2) and approach play (3) are all highly ranked, leaving metrics like driving accuracy and off the tee as the "not so important" stats here at Plantation. 

    Looking at the last 5 years at Kapalua at putting, around the green and approach, it reveals awhole host of players in each category without any real clear standout. In saying that, Rahm is the ONLY player to feature in the top 6 in each category.

    Because of this, we can take a more global view of the field, which takes into account up to 10 statistical metrics, weighted against strength of field numbers, recent form and tournament history. Low and behold, these "power Rankings" suggest a list of players that correlate almost identically to the order of odds you will find at the moment, with the list (of best descending) consisting of the following

    Rahm
    Scheffler
    Cantlay
    Schauffele
    Fitzpatrick
    Finau
    Zalatoris

    historically, if we dive deeper and more focused (36 rounds), the top 4 are as follows

    Rahm
    Cantlay
    Thomas
    Schauffele

    with finally, a weighted total statistical metric revealing

    Zalatoris!
    Cantlay
    Xander
    Rahm

    Well so what? What should we do here.

    Given this is a 39 man field of studs with no cut, I feel it doesnt lend itself to backing up to 6 guys as usual for the customary approx 5-1 odds. Overall, its pretty obvious the Jon Rahm is the man who has the best statistical profile across the board and that is refected in the odds, with him being $8.00 favorite. 

    His recent and tournamant history are excellent. He finished last year off with a bang and got the putter going again, to complement his aready elite off the tee and iron game. He seems hungrier than ever and last year was only bettered by 1 shot even thpough shooting an all time record 34 under for the tournament. Significantly, Big Jon is playing with a new weapon in the bag. The new Callaway Paradigm driver. If it improves his off the tee game at all he will win. Plain and simple. 

    If backing favorites is not your thing, I think Will Zalatoris is a great number at around $35. This is his first tournament back after injury in the playoffs, hence the big number. You are taking a big leap of faith that he is match fit and ready to go after nearly 5 months away. but these blokes dont forget how to play the game at the highest level, and if he is 95% fit he will give them a scare. 

    Ofcourse, there is a miriad of players that could win this tournament, given they are all winners here. I was keen on Xander initially but there are reports of an injury after WD from the pro am. At $12 im not willing to find out. Thomas, Scheffler and Cantlay are all close up at around $11 and can certainly win. Scheffler finished the year with putting woes, Cantlay seems to take a run to get going after a well earned break, which leaves Thomas. He is ranked the best player of the Hawaiin swing overall in the last 5 years, with two wins at Sentry plus a win in the Sony Open. Definite threat, but $11 is a little too close to Rahm.

    My initial list of players to back gave me a arbitrage price of around $2.20, which is way too short for this. So after some too'ing and fro'ing, it all comes down to what is my best chance of making something out of this tournament. For me it was the overall metrics, the tournmament history and format (ie NO CUT) and the prices.

    So, I am outlaying 35 units to start the year. I finished the year on +111 units after a magical 2/2 start to this season, only to give back nearly 2/3 of it back in the lead up to Xmas.

    14 units Rahm outright at $8 (112 units returned)
    21 units Rahm TOP 5 at $2.38 (50 unit returned)

    He is the best player and Im tipping him to have a massive year. I reckon he can win 5 times and get a major somewhere. He can start fast and keep the foot on the gas, but he can also have an early "bad" round and still explode on the weekend, such is his elite game. The Top 5 price is what sold me with Tabtouch, being the best out there.

    Overall +111 Units
    This week -35 units

    Total +76 units (35 alive)

    Its great to be back into the GOLF!

    Gilgamesh, detonator likes this post.

  • GilgameshGilgamesh    4,793 posts
    Grat preview bomber, you were right about the birdie athon, only one player not under the card!!

    H-BOMBER likes this post.

  • GilgameshGilgamesh    4,793 posts
    *Great
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    edited January 2023
    Nice start by the big fella, carding a first round leader equalling 64 (-9). His putter was on fire on the front nine, in fact the majority of the day. He carded 8 birdies, an eagle and a bogey which was on the easiest hole on the course (#14) where he had a terrible low in the bunker off the tee. His new Paradym driver didn't really set the world on fire, as he only hit 5/15 fairways, however most of the misses were being too long! His longest drive of the day was 404 yards! He was third in driving distance at 313 yards and he only gained 0.8 of a stroke off the tee. Funnily enough, he was ranked midfield in all metrics except putting and greens in regulation, where he gained 3.8 strokes on the field with the flat stick and hit 17/18 greens. He finished 4.2 strokes gained on the field in total. 3 more rounds of that and it's over.

    As well as he played, there is still improvement. He now sits clear 3.50 favorite after round 1. C'mon JR, let's get this new year started on the right foot!
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Disappointed with Rahms second day efforts, carding a -2 to sit now 5 back from leader Morikawa.

    Jon started with 2 bogeys and was able to recover with 6 birdies, however, missed birdies at the par 5s on the back nine as well as a 3 putt bogey on 17 stopped all momentum. He was an angry man coming off 18 and hopefully that translates to low scoring on the weekend.
  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    Your spiel was a indeed good read Bomber, am a little surprised your so bullish about Rahm this year?..needs a win badly and fairly early u suppose that's stating the obvious..hope he bounces back in the next round for you.
    I note Morikawa who I bet for nada return at least a couple of times last season is a clear leader after two terriffic rounds...hmmm.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Rahm cards an excellent round of -6 overnight but it just wasn't good enough in the grand scheme of things, finishing 7 behind leader Morikawa who shot -7 for the day to extend his lead to 6 on the field. He is shooting his lights out and shall now be known as Collin Majorkawa.

    Rahm currently T5, hoping a top 5 outright for a collect.
  • detonatordetonator    4,375 posts
    Collin Keymer. Lol

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  • rumoursrumours    18 posts
    WOW - what a collapse by Collin!! Didn’t have a bogey first 67 holes and then back to back bogeys on 14 and 15! That said the bull shoots 63 to win by 2 - no more dangerous player on tour than Rahm when he’s locked in!! Well done HBomber on finding Rahm in a crack field!

    Thunderstruck, H-BOMBER likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    edited January 2023
    RAHMBO gets it done in Hawaii!

    What a last round. He goes low with a Sunday 63 to win by 2 shots from Morikawa, who was ahead by 9 after one hole today, capitulated at the the three easiest holes on the course 14-15-16 with 3 bogeys in a row. He hadn't had a blemish up to that point and then had the three in a row, which nobody did during the whole week.

    At the turn, he was 7 up on Rahm with 2 holes in hand and was 1.01 to win. Rahm got out to as much as $101 on Betfair but he steamed home with a back nine 32 which could have easily been 2-3 shots better!

    Funnily enough, on hole 10 I messaged a few of my golf sicko mates and called the Morikawa meltdown. He started really hanging on every shot and almost pleading it to be good. Started dropping his head when they weren't on line or dropping and confidence is such a massive thing, when it's lost well we know the saying, confidence lost, everything lost.

    So a great start to the year for El Toro Rhambo in the first of the elevated purse events.

    Even better was to be on the right side of a Morikawa meltdown (hero last year he gave up a 5 shot lead when I was invested) to plunge 172 units back into the kick

    Update

    +76 units

    This week +162

    Overall +238 units for the season with a fourth outright winner.

    This week we stay in Hawaii where Hideki will defend his Sony Open championship against a pretty decent field including Spieth, Tom Kim and others from this week.

    Deep dive in the coming days :D

    Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • GilgameshGilgamesh    4,793 posts
    H-BOMBER said:

    RAHMBO gets it done in Hawaii!

    What a last round. He goes low with a Sunday 63 to win by 2 shots from Morikawa, who was ahead by 9 after one hole today, capitulated at the the three easiest holes on the course 14-15-16 with 3 bogeys in a row. He hadn't had a blemish up to that point and then had the three in a row, which nobody did during the whole week.

    At the turn, he was 7 up on Rahm with 2 holes in hand and was 1.01 to win. Rahm got out to as much as $101 on Betfair but he steamed home with a back nine 32 which could have easily been 2-3 shots better!

    Funnily enough, on hole 10 I messaged a few of my golf sicko mates and called the Morikawa meltdown. He started really hanging on every shot and almost pleading it to be good. Started dropping his head when they weren't on line or dropping and confidence is such a massive thing, when it's lost well we know the saying, confidence lost, everything lost.

    So a great start to the year for El Toro Rhambo in the first of the elevated purse events.

    Even better was to be on the right side of a Morikawa meltdown (hero last year he gave up a 5 shot lead when I was invested) to plunge 172 units back into the kick

    Update

    +76 units

    This week +162

    Overall +238 units for the season with a fourth outright winner.

    This week we stay in Hawaii where Hideki will defend his Sony Open championship against a pretty decent field including Spieth, Tom Kim and others from this week.

    Deep dive in the coming days :D




    I'm very tempted to back you in Bomber but I will just watch-I don't want to be the death of you

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  • ThunderstruckThunderstruck    7,696 posts
    Well I retract my Rahm query, I was right as far as saying he needed to win and early so f it why not jonny jag a come from the clouds job this week!

    Well done H you would be stoked no doubt..geez he would have been fair odds live when 9 behind...

    Got to hand it to Collin CHOKERkawa aye, you would buy him a drink if you could no doubt.

    Rahm will win 6 or more times goddamit I'm on board for next time!!

    H-BOMBER, Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Sony Open Championship

    COURSE: Waialae Country Club, par 70, 7,044 yards.

    19 of the 39 golfers who played the Sentry Tournament of Champions will make the island hop for the Sony Open.

    The first full field of the year and its a pretty good one, hosting a variety of well ranked players and sponsor exemptions.

    Looking at Course fit metrics, there isnt really a standout. The highest ranked metric to sccess here relies on the putter, with some reliance of driving accuracy. What ive looked for is good putters, in good putting form, with solid other parts of the game such as around the green, off the tee and strokes gained total.

    This week Ive chopped the field down to 3 players im happy to play outright and there wont be really any suprises here. Enhanced Tabtouch odds quoted.

    Tom Kim $12.5 - The favorite. Had a great Sentry week last week and continues on this rise. He rates well with the putter and off the tee and coupled with his recent form he is a deserving favorite

    Sungjae Im ($15) - A solid start last week at Sentry but disappointed in rounds 2 and 4. He is a birdie machine in Hawaii overall, last week had lost strokes on approach and around the green. That would have knocked a bit of rust off after the christmas/new year break and looks a great fit here.

    Brian Harman ($21) - Putting machine. Is gaining everywhere in his game and last week at Sentry, finished with his worst round of the week (-3). At the round 3 close of play, he was only 2 back of Rahm. Leading up to Christmas, he finished 2nd, 2nd and 8th and was thereabouts in all 3 tournaments. Worthy addition here.

    Leaving guys like Spieth and Hideki out of the mix. Horshel fit well here but was going to WD from this event, but chaged his mind after some physio. He has a new swing and last week (well early on) showed it wasnt ready. Willing to risk.

    you can back all three about at the individual prices but a better return will be backing the following way

    Enhanced Double Chance T Kim/S Im at $7 - 22.5 units
    Enhnaced odds outright B Harman at $21 - 7.5 units

    Outlay - 30
    Return - 157.5

    Update +238
    This week -30

    Overall +208 with 30 alive.

    Good luck
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Best round for me was Brian Harman, who shot a -3 67 to be only 3 off the lead.

    Absolute disaster for favorite Tom Kim, who looked like was going to shoot 59 after 3 holes being 2 under and a very close miss to be 3 under. Then went +4 for the rest of the day. He lost 5 shots to field on the Green alone! At a place where putting is paramount, he failed spectacularly.

    Sunjae not much better at +1, he was even all day and then bogeyed the last, the easiest hole on the course and I think the only bogey of the day.

    Let's hope for a better day tomorrow

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    If you like Tom, he is now $126 haha

    He could shoot 66 in Rd2 and still miss the cut. Might be worth a few sheckles if he makes the cut on the number, which I think will be -2.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Im and Kim will miss the cut by a fair way, both finishing +2 and +1 respectively for the tournament. Extremely disappointed with their efforts.

    Harman has.just teed off.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Well roumd 3 in the books and we'll just forget about this week. My last guy Harman plodded when needed to fire and is 10 back now, so good night nurse!
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    SiWoo wins at Sony.

    It was an entertaining last round with Buckley and SiWoo trading blows down the stretch. Buckley came to the last needing birdie to force a play off and had an 11 footer for bird but missed. He was #1 putts made between 10-15 feet for the tournament.

    Unfortunately no good for me, even though I backed a Korean called Kim as well.

    The AMEX is this week with all the big dogs playing as this is now an elevated event. I look forward to diving into things ASAP and get the momentum back.

    Gilgamesh likes this post.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    The AMEX starts on Thursday evening/Friday morning, a 72 hole event with a 54 hole cut, played across 3 different courses on the forst 3 days. This alone makes it a nightmare to stratify the data between players and courses and grasses etc etc. What they do "do" is play the Stadium course for the last round, so, as I did last year in the previous Golf Thread, I'll focus on this. Putting is important and the fairways are wide. Lets the birdies rain down!!

    If you do go back to last years thread, I backed Cantlay and Rahm. For no success, with Hudson Swafford saluting at around 200s.He wont be there as he is now a Liv Lifer. 

    In the washup of last year, I swore not to get suckered into Rahm again in this scenario, as the tournament is a concurrent proam, which I believe (and so did Jon), that it is set up easier than a normal PGA tour event. Which means it brings the big dogs back to the rest of them. This certainly plays out in recent history, with putting seemingly winning the day and there is a host of long shot winners. A year on, am I any wiser?

    Long story short, no.

    But there is method to the madness. Bear with me.

    Ive delved deep as usual into the bowels of the stats and pulled out a host of players, which I have then straified further individually based on their most recent history. Here we go.

    Rahm ($7) - This is rock bottom odds. HOWEVER. His win last start was sublime in the ToC. He gained strokes significantly everywhere, except Approach. He lost 3 strokes to the field and still beat them all. And when I say all, a select bunch of studs who were the top echelon of 2022. His off the tee game continues to be elite. His putting has returned. The fire is seemingly a little more controlled. If he matches the field in approach play this week and he might win by 5 shots. 

    Scheffler ($10.5) - The second favorite. His putting woes have been well documented in the latter half of 2022, while the rest of the game continues to be near the best in the world. At the tournament of champions, he was in the background somewhat, with all the focus on the Morikawa meltdown and the Rahm revival. He lost only ever so slightly off the tee, while the putter returned BIGTIME (2.5+ strokes gained). With the wider fairways and his already stellar approach play, coupled with the putter resurgence, Scottie could regain the Number 1 in the world tag with a win here. 

    Zalatoris ($19) - Big Will. Has been on the mend with a bad back for 5 months but returned with a scintillating last day at the ToC and showed the world he is "back" (get it?). While he lost 2 shots on approach, the tournmant was notoriously hard for appraoch play and he actually matched Rahmbo in that statistic. Last year, Zalatoris was winless on the tour and contested this event, finishing tied 6th but gaining a whopping 10.5 strokes to the field. His problem was the putter. He was missing 3-6 footers with ease and he actually lost nearly 2 strokes to the field in last years event. He putts to the field and he wins and that was his problem all LAST YEAR. This time around its different, very different. At the ToC, he gained just over 2 strokes with the putter and he is confident with the flat blade. He likes the setup of the courses and can go a few better this year which would not suprise one bit. 

    SiWoo Kim ($46) - Siwoo. Won last week. They dont win twice in a row EVER. This will be on the quick backup from Hawaii, where he came from 3 back on the last day. As I said, they dont win 2 weeks running, like ever. BUT. He is absolutely feeling himself at the moment with his ball striking, at levels that cannot be ignored. In his last two starts, there have had to have been some changes, and it is bearing fruit in respect to SG approach (+8.81 and +8.25), SG Ball striking (9.07 and 9.39!) and lastly SG Tee to Green (7.03 and a massive 11.74 at Sony). These numbers simply cannot be over looked. Given the more generous fairways AND his changes to a broom stick putter (which incidently was back to its best last week), you have to have something on him. 

    So theres the 4 blokes this week. 

    At the nominated prices from TabTouch, you can back all these guys and get $3.20 on your money.

    Outlay this week 40 units for a return of 128. 

    Update

    Season +208 units

    This week -40

    Overall +168 (with 40 alive)

    Good luck and good viewing.

  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Rahm explodes out of the blocks overnight with a 64, which included 9 birdies and 1 bogey. He is amazingly still 2 shots behind leader Davis Thompson, who carded a flawless 10 under 62.

    Scheffler shot -4, Zalatoris -3 and SiWoo -2.

    The cut is at 54 holes and will probably be about -10 at this rate.

    Expect the scoring at La Quinta to be low compared to the other two courses in the 54 holes rotation.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    RAHMBO continues on his merry way with another overnight 64. He sits at -16 still 2 behind leader Davis Thompson. Amazingly, Thompson leads by 2 despite have 5 eagles in 2 rounds with Rahm having 0 eagles. They have spaced out from the field with the next best at -13 including my blokes from last week Tom Kim and Sungjae Im.

    Of the others I have backed, SiWoo have a very nice 64 also today to sit at -10. Scheffler also played solidly for a 7 under 65 to be at -11. Zalatoris faltered over the final holes to card a -3 for the day, 12 shots back.

    It looks like it is another Rahm week. The way he is playing is unbelievable. This year, he has played 10 rounds of golf for an average of 65.4 and he has an average Strokes gained on the field of nearly 4.0. This is unheard of. Even in the Tiger years. I'm not counting my chickens, as this is golf. But gosh he is in the zone at the moment and if he wins this week, it could be a very boring thread piling into him every week!
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    It's not often you can say that a 65 on the day was disappointing, but that is what Rahm has just carded as a 3rd round.

    He is currently tied for the lead at -23. He was lighting it up being 8 under through 12 holes. Then the putter went cold and he missed 4 putts within 8 feet coming in, including a bogey on 17. He has certainly let the field in where he could have put this things well and truly to bed. He will play in the last group tomorrow which is a plus for him to put the pressure on young Davis Thompson down the stretch.
  • H-BOMBERH-BOMBER    10,332 posts
    Big back nine coming up. Rahm 1 ahead of Thompson and Kirk.

    Dangers everywhere though, mainly Schauffele who had a 2 on the par 5!4th hole !
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